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2701  Economy / Speculation / Re: Someone just took a gigantic dump. on: November 14, 2011, 02:08:42 AM
Look at the 7K sell at 2.5001 Shocked
Liquidity is finally provided...

None of the people who were promoting it are here cheering though.
2702  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: What's the leading exchange right now? on: November 14, 2011, 02:01:14 AM
I've been dabbling in the alt. currencies for a long, long time. Now I'm starting to come back to BTC. I was wondering what the current most popular exchange is. Surely it's not mtgox still, is it? Also, It's good to be home. Smiley
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

Mt.Gox is by far the biggest exchange. Also, welcome back Smiley.
2703  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin stability on: November 14, 2011, 01:59:57 AM
So much for stability Tongue.

Baseless Speculation: I think the price has entered the next drop, this time due to panic selling. What happens next depends on whether the $2.4 and $2 supports hold - if they do, we could even have an attempt at "stability" at the $2.4-$3 range.

There is no support at $2,40. It's another ghostwall. Sprang up from 600 coins to 50000 coins right after the second major dump happened.


EDIT: Aaaaand while I'm typing it has already disappeared.

EDIT2: Now it's at $2,50. This is hilarious.
2.5 is a ghostwall, yes, but there should be technical support at $2.4 since the price bounced off there. People will be inclined to place buys at that level because they wish to recieve cheap bitcoins.
2704  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: BIP - Fee structure and "fee adjustments" on: November 14, 2011, 01:50:15 AM
Another possible attack is without much incentive, but possible. If a miner controlling enough hash power and coins exists, they could lower the fee by producing transactions with a massive fee which will be payed to themself. The only incentive for this is for their own transactions to be cheaper, but is clearly a dangerous attack. The only way I see to mitigate this attack is to change the protocol or only include transactions using the minimal fee. The second strategy seems ideal.

Explain why this is dangerous.  The way I see it a miner creates a transaction with a huge fee but doesn't propagate it unless/until they mine a block.   If they succeed they get lower fees, if they fail, they flush the transaction.  It seems like it has no downside.

If you only include transactions that have the minimal fee you eliminate the ability for someone to pay extra to get priority service (only really important if block sizes are nearing the maximum).  You also penalize transactions that are using a different algorithm that happens to be more generous, that seems like an odd thing to do.
Ah, right, I haven't noticed that. I meant only calculate the minimal fee in the fee adjustment, so that priority service can still be enabled. I modified the sections in question to use the median fee - although this may increase fees a little due to the median likely being on the low side.
2705  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin stability on: November 14, 2011, 01:46:38 AM
So much for stability Tongue.

Baseless Speculation: I think the price has entered the next drop, this time due to panic selling. What happens next depends on whether the $2.4 and $2 supports hold - if they do, we could even have an attempt at "stability" at the $2.4-$3 range.
2706  Economy / Speculation / Re: Someone just took a gigantic dump. on: November 14, 2011, 01:32:47 AM
open - close
24hrs

Mtgox never closes, right? So the volume represents the previous 24 hours from whenever you read the figure?
I think it represents the amount since 0 UTC. At least, that's what the bitcoincharts one means.
2707  Economy / Speculation / Re: $/BTC Time Series (Probability) Analysis on: November 14, 2011, 01:32:22 AM
How about this?

*image*
Is this after the november 13 instant crash?
2708  Economy / Speculation / Re: Someone just took a gigantic dump. on: November 14, 2011, 01:30:12 AM
There goes my bitcoinica balence  Embarrassed. Should have shorted after all...

(or, be a smart trader and add a stop order).
2709  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / BIP - Fee structure and "fee adjustments" on: November 14, 2011, 01:21:04 AM
Code:
BIP: Unnamed [codename: Fee]
Title: Fee Structure and Adjustments
Author: dree12 <no email associated>, Bitcointalk.org community <no email associated>
Status: Active
Type: Draft
Created: 2011-11-13
Fee Structure and Adjustments
This BIP is not secure at the moment. It is recommended that if considered, it should be installed on a merchant testnet to test for exploits. Currently, some exploits are identified but not patched. The feedback of forum users is well appreciated to identify which patches will and will not work.
Abstract
The Bitcoin network is operated and secured by miners. These miners mine because there is an incentive to do so. Currently, this incentive comes mainly from the block subsidy of 50 BTC. As block subsidy drops, however, it is still unknown whether fees will catch up. If Bitcoin is adopted widely, lowering fee rates will likely be very difficult. Bitcoin is designed so the miner will choose which transactions to accept and reject. This BIP proposes a method of providing a guideline accepted by both the client and the miner.
Motivation
To keep the Bitcoin network secure when the block subsidy approaches zero, the fee structure must be changed. A period of extensive economic activity may increase difficulty very fast, and then if followed by calm economic activity could destructively increase the time for block generation. Additionally, when economic activity is low the chance for a double-spend is greatly increased as miners turn idle due to lack of profit.

To achieve this, the fees must be kept relatively stable. It is impossible and unnessesary to react and anticipate the market ahead, and also unrealistic to restrict fees to a fixed amount. If the Bitcoin developers tried to set new fee tiers, old clients may take a long time to upgrade and the slow adoption will make many transactions take much more time to confirm.

Therefore, this BIP proposes adjusting a global "recommended fee multiplier" similar to difficulty and using the same concept. There will be little confusion between miners from this proposal.

Specification
This section is not well-researched and reflects no mathematical or cryptographic proof of security. Please help improve it by suggesting upgrades, changes, additions, or removals.

As previously outlines, this BIP will maintain a global "recommended fee multiplier" (abbreviated RFM). The current fee calculation method, or the future fee calculation method, is maintained. The client and miner's recommended fee will be calculated as such:
Code:
Fee = Raw Fee * RFM
This formula is used so that the RFM can be seen in a similar way to difficulty. To avoid issues with floating point calculations, clients and miners should calculate the RFM from an integer value maintained in the network, similar to difficulty's target. The Raw Fee can be at an arbitrary scale, as only the RFM needs to change.

Similar to difficulty adjustments, RFM adjusts to get closer to a target. The adjustment is exactly like difficulty adjustments, except instead of using the time between adjustments, the median fees included in a block is used. This means that if someone tries to put absurd fees into a block, there will not be an effect. The target fee amount should be made so that it will adjust block rewards as close to 51 BTC as possible. RFM adjustments, like difficulty adjustments, are capped by 400% and 25%.

To achieve the intended effect of preventing wild difficulty oscillations, the ideal time to adjust RFM is not coinciding with difficulty adjustments, but rather halfway between them. This ways, between two difficulty adjustments there will always be an RFM adjustment and vice versa. Since RFM regulates difficulty, this is ideal.

Rationale
An patch for this should be trivial and change no aspects of the protocol. The attack vector is extremely small, but clients and miners should offer an emergency responce button to switch back to the old system. If coodinated, this could easily defuse a fee-based attack.

As previously discussed, this method is only a recommendation. Miners and clients coordinating can easily switch back to the old system in case of an attack. This system should first be tested in a merchant testnet to reduce the risk. No money could be lost due to an attack. The worst possible case is that transaction fees either go so high the network nearly halts, or that some tx-spamming could be done due to a tiny fee. Both are temporary and arguable problems of Bitcoin itself, however attacks should be avoided at all costs.

Unlike manual fee-switching, this system gracefully blends into older client versions. There is also some confusing that may arise from clients wondering why fees keep changing, but this should be a rare event happening every two weeks.

A less evident feedback loop exists in this implemation. A sharp decrease in difficulty and an influx of mining power will cause the reRFM time to be much smaller, increasing the fee greatly because transaction volume was lower than before. The increased fee will then cause difficulty to go up again, as well as lower transaction volume, and therefore could be sustained for a while. This feedback loop is not likely to be very destructive, but could be prevented by adjusting RFM based on time rather than blocks.

A sharp increase in the fee is an additional way of entering this feedback loop. This time, it is much harder to stop. A solution is to give up on the fixed 51 BTC per block, and instead use the previous retarget period standard. This is a hybrid approach.

Possible Attacks
Another possible attack is without much incentive, but possible. If a miner controlling enough hash power and coins exists, they could produce transactions with a massive fee which will be payed to themself. The only true incentive for this is for their own transactions to be cheaper. Since the median fees are used to calculate RFM, more than 50% of the hashing power has to do this, which is unlikely.

The inverse of this attack is for a miner to not accept any fee transactions. This is not an attack: their impact is negliable and they are giving up income. This "attack" could be compared to a miner not mining to decrease difficulty.

Implemation and Adoption
This new fee structure can be adopted easily. As no change to the protocol is needed, all old clients will work fine. Miners do not need to immediately upgrade to serve the new clients. Relaying nodes upgrading to the new protocol is very important, however, which can be solved with BIP 14 and node selection. As long as a reasonable portion of miners and clients move over to the recommended fee system, the system will self-sustain.

Miners have an incentive to upgrade to this system because it guarentees a steady rate of income, rather than wild difficulty swings. As more miners migrate, clients and merchants will also have an incentive to upgrade because they will then be paying the minimum fee that will be accepted.

Credits
Thanks to DeathAndTaxes who provided the initial idea.

The following users of bitcointalk.org helped identify and fix possible attacks:
  • BeeCee1

As this BIP has a thousand holes in it, thanks in advance to all users who help patch holes and suggest additions and modifications.
2710  Economy / Economics / Re: Properties a crypto-currency requires in order to be self-stabilizing on: November 13, 2011, 10:00:24 PM
I just had an idea. If it seems the value of something is declining, why not freeze assets and therefore reducing supply temporarily? Say, x% of all money stored in addresses cannot be used for the next y blocks. If an address recieves money, that money is also portion-frozen immediately to slow down economic activity. These methods should cause temporary reductions in supply and economic ability, but nobody actually loses any money.

Alternatively, a sales tax can be implemented for transactions to cut economic activity also. This sales tax approaches 0% when the currency is moving up in price, and can go up to 100% if the currency was devaluating so fast the economy needed to be halted. This might make more sense than freezing money.

In order to prevent speculators anticipating these events and creating a massive selloff, the economy should reward keeping coins when by some metric the market looks like it is devaluating. This can be implemented as a percentage gratuity when the system determines the devaluation is over, but only if the coins are kept and not used.
2711  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Microsoft Researchers Suggest Method to Improve Bitcoin Transaction Propagation on: November 13, 2011, 09:25:12 PM
Hmm... I don't rebroadcast transactions in order to keep more of the fees for myself. But fees are denominated in... BTC. By not supporting the network and eventually breaking it, BTC will tend to have value of... right, zero. So, I don't really have an incentive to maintain cooperating node?

Confused.
Your own impact on the breaking of the network is near zero. The impact of all the nodes is what matters - think about it: why would you waste time voting in an uncompetitive election that it is clear who will win?

I don't agree completely, as humans are irrational. But a bloc of robots using bitcoin will, unless utilizing superrationality strategies, suppress broadcasting the average transaction.
2712  Economy / Speculation / Re: $/BTC Time Series (Probability) Analysis on: November 13, 2011, 03:19:42 PM
Ok, to satisfy your curiosity here is the support/resistance chart with price on a log scale.

*image*
Would it look less or more distorted if the vertical axis was log too?
More distorted because the units are relative S/R. That is to say, the difficulty of change between 10 and 9 is equal to 1 and 0. The graph itself is actually a cumalative display if I'm not mistaken.
2713  Economy / Auctions / Re: 1 BTC up for Auction! Bidding starts at 0.01 BTC! on: November 13, 2011, 04:34:14 AM
Are sub-satoshi amounts allowed?
2714  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: First newbie to post here with a Bitcoin address gets 0.0045 BTC on: November 12, 2011, 01:49:47 AM
I'm not a newbie, but if it applies: 13X9E4sohnaq6GZC8PPjLdgv22X8TNftn4
2715  Economy / Services / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 8 on: November 10, 2011, 01:41:14 AM
At this point, the minimum bid required to get in is 2.5. If everyone pays, the forum would earn 22.0 BTC.

SlotUsernameRate (BTC)
1Imsaguy5.0
2Mc_lovin3.5
3BitcoinMint.US2.5
4Edd2.5
5Edd2.5
6Ineededausername2.0
7Cryptoxchange2.0
8Cryptoxchange2.0
2716  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: I have 0.5 BTC left over, does anyone have an idea to grow it to 1 BTC? on: November 09, 2011, 01:08:08 AM
I just got into bitcoins on Thursday, and a kind IRC chatter gave me 2 BTC for free. Me, being an idiot, lost it with online blackjack and coin toss games. Now I have 0.5 BTC and I'm trying to figure out a low-medium risk way to grow it to 1 or more BTC within a couple days or so.

Does anyone have any good ideas?
If one could just double their money with low-medium risk in a couple days, bitcoin would be in hyperinflation (if it isn't right now, which is arguable).
2717  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: bitfloor liquidity rebate on: November 08, 2011, 01:22:23 AM
A question:

Suppose the highest bid is $2 and the lowest ask is $3. Bob decides he can get a good price and a rebate if he places a bid, so he does so at $2.5, a natural psychological point.

Alice, thinking the same, places an ask at $2.5 thinking she will get the rebate. Bob's order is sent to the server first, but only by a couple of milliseconds. Does Alice get charged the fee, or is she given a chance to cancel her order?

Since both Alice and Bob are placing a bid @ 2.5 both of their orders will go onto the book. When Jerry comes around and places and aks @ 2.5 he will first execute against Bob's order (since it was first one the book). Then if Jerry still has shares outstanding, he will execute against Alice's order. *BOTH* Alice and Bob will be given the rebate since their orders were already on the book (providing liquidity) and Jerry will be charged a fee.

Hope that clears it up!
I meant Alice places an ask, while Bob a bid. Does the system prevent that in any way?
2718  Economy / Speculation / Re: 3 is the magic number, and the magic number is 3 on: November 07, 2011, 09:27:10 PM
My prediction: prices won't go above $4 this year. But remember months ago when 10k-30k coins would often be dropped on the market by a single sell order, crashing the market?  It seemed like a weekly occurrence back then, but I can't remember the last time that happened.  But we still have 10k-30k bitcoin buys every week or so.
You may be right that BTCUSD may hold below 4 $ for a bit more, but in the next 1-12 weeks (yes, I know it's a broad range) we will see a rise into the 6 (edit)-10 $ range.
What happened to the shortterm being down? Also, what is so convincing that bitcoin will increase 100% in value in the next twelve weeks, an average of over 0.8% a day?!
2719  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: bitfloor liquidity rebate on: November 07, 2011, 09:19:47 PM
A question:

Suppose the highest bid is $2 and the lowest ask is $3. Bob decides he can get a good price and a rebate if he places a bid, so he does so at $2.5, a natural psychological point.

Alice, thinking the same, places an ask at $2.5 thinking she will get the rebate. Bob's order is sent to the server first, but only by a couple of milliseconds. Does Alice get charged the fee, or is she given a chance to cancel her order?
2720  Economy / Services / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 8 on: November 07, 2011, 09:14:35 PM
At this point, the minimum bid required to get in is 2.5. If everyone pays, the forum would earn 17.5 BTC.

SlotUsernameRate (BTC)
1Mc_lovin3.5
2Ineededausername2.0
3Cryptoxchange2.0
4Cryptoxchange2.0
5Cryptoxchange2.0
6Cryptoxchange2.0
7Cryptoxchange2.0
8Cryptoxchange2.0

Stats: On the 27th of September, 2011 there were about 730,000 views of topics. So one slot would have appeared around 73,000 times per day. The ad doesn't appear on topic pages with only one post, though, and it only appears for people using the default theme.
It is now November 7. Are there any more recent statistics?
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