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2081  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Statement about the suspect of recent Bitcoinica hack on: July 29, 2012, 02:30:52 AM
I'm still not sure why everyone seems to believe Zhou stole the funds. At this point, it's becoming increasingly obvious that he didn't.
2082  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 43 on: July 28, 2012, 11:30:40 PM
What happened to "innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt"? The funds are most likely not stolen, so why refuse them?
innocent until proven - that's how the mafia operates. if you doubt the legitimate source of your business you should by moral standards put it on hold until the legitimacy is ensured.
Sure. How much evidence that Zhou did it has been posted? Now, remove all of aurumxchange's posts, posts that contain information that aurumxchange could have made up. How much evidence is left? Not even Mt. Gox has anything: they publicly could only admit half of the story was verifiable.

If one person is enough to doubt a legitimate source, I could argue that Satoshi stole the coins.
2083  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The psychology of a con man - Zhou on: July 28, 2012, 11:23:46 PM
Innocent people will fight and fight and fight to defend their name.   That's why the police ask you the same questions over and over - they know that if you are guilty, you will eventually give up and admit it.   There is psychology behind this, but I was unable to Google the correct term to find it - maybe someone else will have more luck?

Now let's look at Zhou - he made up his big story and when no one (save for an ignorant few) believed it, he quickly stopped posting.  Didn't try to defend himself at all.

Does anyone know his real name yet?
He's definitely still fighting, so this point isn't helping your case. Check his post history.
2084  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [Payout Updates] Bitcoinica site is taken offline for security investigation on: July 28, 2012, 11:21:59 PM
May I ask, why are you personally attacking Zhou? The community understands your point. None of your posts at this point are helping: this one just damaged your own reputation if anything (it was, in the end, supporting Zhou).

At this point, I'm inclined to believe that you have a personal or commercial reason to blame Zhou.
2085  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Weekend Dip Myth on: July 28, 2012, 11:16:28 PM
6-hourly, from Mon-Sun:
2086  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Weekend Dip Myth on: July 28, 2012, 10:10:11 PM
The weekend dip, although its premise is disputable, is supported by data. Prices have dropped more on weekends than on weekdays. Sunday is the most severe "day of the dip", Monday, Tuesday, and Saturday are the only other days that demonstrate a drop.


Which time zone did you use?
Can you please label the y axis?
The time zone is UTC. The y-axis has units of days, as in [days risen - days dropped]. The orange line represents 0. The grey lines are, in order from top to bottom:

  • 12
  • 8
  • 3
  • -2
  • -7
  • -12
2087  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Sabotaging Mining Pools on: July 28, 2012, 10:03:47 PM
Now, couldn't a smart withholding attack check to see if the block already exists in the block chain, and only then send it up to the pool server?
Yes, but nobody's that smart yet.

Quote
I suppose you could hold back releasing the block to the Bitcoin network for 30 secs while you wait for all your workers to prove themselves, but you risk another miner finding a block in the mean time.
I think you could withhold for just 4 seconds and still get a pretty good idea. This would incur about a .7% chance of losing the block, with an expected cost of about $3.
Many pools do not require a password. If a malignant individual mines on someone else's account, they could possibly get them into trouble.
2088  Other / Off-topic / Re: Let's Count to 21 Million with Images on: July 28, 2012, 09:45:40 PM
2089  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Weekend Dip Myth on: July 28, 2012, 09:43:03 PM
The weekend dip, although its premise is disputable, is supported by data. Prices have dropped more on weekends than on weekdays. Sunday is the most severe "day of the dip", Monday, Tuesday, and Saturday are the only other days that demonstrate a drop.

2090  Economy / Speculation / Re: Volatility Index on: July 28, 2012, 09:41:23 PM
So right now, according to your chart we areon the index value of about -5, in respect to the past 30-day period, which means the volatility has gone down by 5% compared to the latest 30-day-average??
The volatility index is measured in days, not percentages. I forgot to include the unit in the y-axis. It effectively measures how many days in the 30-day period have been above average in volatility and subtracts the number of days that have been below average in volatility.
2091  Economy / Speculation / Re: #1 most popular Bitcoin Price Forecasts (subscribe here: bitcoinbullbear.com) on: July 28, 2012, 09:24:21 PM
this thread used to be interesting, now its just advertisement spam...
Sure, there's been a lot of advertisement spam, but this thread is still the most viewed topic in speculation. Because of the lenient rules set by the OP, people prefer to advertise here.
2092  Economy / Speculation / Volatility Index on: July 28, 2012, 09:12:01 PM
Just wanted to share this chart I made. The index is computed on the difference between above-average and below-average volatility dates on the 30-day period centered after the day the index is computed for.

2093  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 43 on: July 28, 2012, 08:26:57 PM
What happened to "innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt"? The funds are most likely not stolen, so why refuse them?
2094  Other / Off-topic / Re: Let's Count to 21 Million with Images on: July 28, 2012, 08:23:47 PM
2095  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What is environmentalism, really? on: July 28, 2012, 07:53:22 PM
Quote
The Green movement aims to extend the lifetime of exploited resources of our environment.
Wow, never thought of it that way.

It's also not true, at least not in any practial sense.  In my own experience, those who "wish to be green" and are willing to use government to compell others to also do as they would wish are religious zealots, not scientists.  They, as a rule, are impervious to new facts or data that may not have been available (or not widely available) at the time of their religious conversion.  I'm no less committed to the environment than I ever have been, I've just come to the conclusion that most of the actions that are proposed by the Green movement are ineffective at best, and terriblely counterproductive otherwise.  Even one of the founders of Greenpeace has done an about face concerning civil nuclear power, and nuclear power was one of the scientific issues that started me down my alternate path.  I love watching "Stosseld" on Fox Business Network each thursday, and this past one had a bit on the EPA that I agree with compeletly.  Stossel (himself a well known former liberal turned libertarian) stated the issue well for myself, by saying that when the EPA was founded, there was much need for it, but since all of the low hanging fruit has been dealt with over the past 40 years, all remaining gains are economicly very costly and thus result in job losses.  I also agree with his libertarian position that, although it's true that in a libertarian world the public could class action sue major industrial polluters, in practice our justice system is too screwed up for that to be a practial solution.  Thus the EPA must continue to exist as a reflection of our society's collective desire to restrict pollution to the economicly necessary minimum possible but no further.  My greatest complaint about the EPA is that they have no authority over the greatest pollutors within the USA, namely government institutions themselves (particularly the US Military), so further gains from federal actions cannot be expected.
I'm of the opinion that job losses cannot result from doing something, and the government simply uses it as an excuse to continue its useless propaganda campaign. We don't need a government or a Greenpeace to run the green movement, and I oppose both parties. I believe that the only Green movement that can succeed is the collective cooperation of individuals, not the fascist regulations or harmful acts of terrorism. The true Green movement involves people who care, not organizations concerned more about self-preservation and conflict.
2096  Local / Other languages/locations / Re: Esperanto ! on: July 28, 2012, 07:46:43 PM
Saluton, ĉiuj.

Ĉu estas vorto ĝenerale akceptita por "Bitcoin"? Mi scivolas.

Ĉu "Bitkono" estas bona elekto? Konon (scion), en bitoj?

Povas estas de tiuj?

  • Bitmono
  • Retmono

Aŭ, ĉu vorto estis estiĝita?
2097  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What is environmentalism, really? on: July 28, 2012, 05:14:48 PM
There is a lot of hypocrisy involved,
expecting everyone else to make measures we're not always wiiling to make ourselves.
If society as a whole takes measures, humanity will continue its Golden Age.

If too many individuals are not willing to take measures themselves, we will likely witness a collapse akin to the fall of Rome.

I believe that Environmentalism represents the idea that the society as a whole is more important than individuals, but individuals make up society as a whole. The Green movement aims to extend the lifetime of exploited resources of our environment.
2098  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MintChip challenge - Vote for Bitcoin! on: July 28, 2012, 02:37:18 AM
wow, #2 has 110 votes now.. the last few days seems to be a dash towards the finish line.
Eh? #1 is almost double #2...
2099  Other / Meta / Re: Subfora to add on: July 28, 2012, 02:34:18 AM
I'm all for it, except the speculation sub.

The newbies forum could also benefits from an "introduce yourself" sub.


Speculation
is most of the time used by traders to try moving the price by influencing others,  It's almost a complete fiasco.
And no, for greater effect, they will not be posting their speculation in "non-general reasoning" they'll be posting it in the main bitcoin discussion sub.
I guess Speculation can remain as it is for now. It's just how it's bigger than its parent that makes it important to be subdivided.
2100  Other / Meta / Re: No Security subforum ? on: July 28, 2012, 02:32:47 AM
Hmm, maybe a general security subforum of Bitcoin Discussion? I think I'll add that to my thread on proposed subfora.
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