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2721  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What's your opinion of gun control? on: December 30, 2016, 04:24:35 PM
Armed citizens dont stop terrorist. Remember 9/11 [insert any other terror attack]?¿?¿

Great example, considering the crew and passengers of the hijacked planes on 9/11 were disarmed.

In fact, the Federal Flight Deck Officer program was launched after 9/11 which allows eligible crew members to carry firearms to prevent such an attack from occurring in the future.

We can only speculate what would have happened if any of the crew or passengers were armed on that day, but I imagine that those planes wouldn't have been flown into the WTC buildings, at the very least.

Hijackers were armed with shaving razors and pepper spray...
2722  Economy / Economics / Re: The Halving - Good or Bad for Bitcoin? on: December 30, 2016, 04:20:54 PM
Exactly like i though what you did.
So take nov. 2012 price. Extrapolate to today 12$x10/21 <= 6$ Huh

That would be the price in November, 2012 if all coins had been mined by then. But today is December, 2016 (if you have somehow forgotten it). You can't just take and throw away all the demand that has piled up since then, and which we assumed to be the same as it has been through the whole time span of 4 years (and don't forget that the elasticity of price is assumed to be constant too)...

As you can see, your reasoning is not sustainable

Why did you write this then:

Quote
Therefore, it would equal 12+(675-12)/2=~343.5 dollars per coin...

That would have been the price at the moment when the last bitcoin had been mined, namely, in July 2016. I guess I know what you are going to say next, i.e. how the price could have grown from 343.5 dollars to over 700 dollars in just half a year (from July through December 2016). The answer is pretty simple, and in fact I have already answered it in one of my previous posts. The price would have been surging because there would be no more bitcoins mined after July, 2016, just like it would have been lagging behind before that date simply because of the reward being twice as high its real value...

If you don't understand something, maybe, it is better to ask, after all?

Remember the 12$ from nov. 2012 and the 675 $ from july 2016.
Does something ring?
Read your post before that one again

I don't get your point

We have a starting price of 12 dollars in November, 2012, when the mining reward had been halved from 50 to 25 BTC. The price in July, 2016, at the next halving, was, according to you, 675 dollars per coin, with the rise being 675-12=663 dollars. We assume that the halving was cancelled in November, 2012, and the reward had been left intact (i.e. the same 50 BTC). Since we also assume that all things remain the same between these two dates (apart from the reward itself), the supply of coins would have been twice as much. Consequently, that allows us to assume that the price change within this time span would be half as much, i.e. 663/2=331.5 dollars. If we add this change to the starting price, we will get 343.5 dollars per coin in July, 2016


Your initial statement was that if every bitcoin was mined now the price would be three fourths of its current.
This assumption is based on nothing except wishful thinking.

The counter example is easy to understand you just need to take different dates of the bitcoin timeline and extrapolate.
(Indeed you might be less then several orders of magnitude off, but that doesnt really fucking matter)


2723  Economy / Economics / Re: The Halving - Good or Bad for Bitcoin? on: December 30, 2016, 03:44:09 PM
Exactly like i though what you did.
So take nov. 2012 price. Extrapolate to today 12$x10/21 <= 6$ Huh

That would be the price in November, 2012 if all coins had been mined by then. But today is December, 2016 (if you have somehow forgotten it). You can't just take and throw away all the demand that has piled up since then, and which we assumed to be the same as it has been through the whole time span of 4 years (and don't forget that the elasticity of price is assumed to be constant too)...

As you can see, your reasoning is not sustainable

Why did you write this then:

Quote
Therefore, it would equal 12+(675-12)/2=~343.5 dollars per coin...

That would have been the price at the moment when the last bitcoin had been mined, namely, in July 2016. I guess I know what you are going to say next, i.e. how the price could have grown from 343.5 dollars to over 700 dollars in just half a year (from July through December 2016). The answer is pretty simple, and in fact I have already answered it in one of my previous posts. The price would have been surging because there would be no more bitcoins mined after July, 2016, just like it would have been lagging behind before that date simply because of the reward being twice as high its real value...

If you don't understand something, maybe, it is better to ask, after all?

Remember the 12$ from nov. 2012 and the 675 $ from july 2016.
Does something ring?
Read your post before this one again.

Lol Grin
2724  Economy / Economics / Re: The Halving - Good or Bad for Bitcoin? on: December 30, 2016, 03:15:47 PM
Exactly like i though what you did.
So take nov. 2012 price. Extrapolate to today 12$x10/21 <= 6$ Huh

That would be the price in November, 2012 if all coins had been mined by then. But today is December, 2016 (if you have somehow forgotten it). You can't just take and throw away all the demand that has piled up since then, and which we assumed to be the same as it has been through the whole time span of 4 years (and don't forget that the elasticity of price is assumed to be constant too)...

As you can see, your reasoning is not sustainable

Why did you write this then:


Quote
Therefore, it would equal 12+(675-12)/2=~343.5 dollars per coin...


I guess you didnt knew what you wrote.


Allright then lets change to your new narrative.
It doesnt even make sense to talk about it because it has zero value like talking about the weight of bird shit in your garden.
You omit every economic parameter which leads to totaly wrong results.

It makes even less sense now.
Dude you should visit a medical facility. You must have some mental disease for sure.


2725  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [GBYTE] Byteball Speculation on: December 30, 2016, 03:00:31 PM
Thanks for the infos guys. Im still wondering why you are getting more then 20x less though....
2726  Economy / Economics / Re: The Halving - Good or Bad for Bitcoin? on: December 30, 2016, 02:48:55 PM


Since by July 2016 all coins should have been mined (remember the reward halving would remain the same after November, 2012), no new coins would be entering the market. But as we assumed that the demand remains the same, right now we would have the price equal to the current price multiplied by the number of coins mined by now and divided by the total number of coins. If we take the current price at ~$950 and the number of coins already mined ~16M, we will get the price equal to 950*16/21=~$723 if all coins had been mined by July, which is roughly three fourths (950*3/4=712.5). Just in case, you have yet to explain what is your logic behind claiming that the price would be a few orders of magnitude lower than it is today...

You should understand that just stating or asserting something will not suffice, no matter how loud you voice your claims

Exactly like i though what you did.
So take nov. 2012 price. Extrapolate to today 12$x10/21 <= 6$ Huh

6$/675$= 1/112 = 2 orders of magnitude.

Duhhhh..... Roll Eyes
2727  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Why isn't public transport free? on: December 30, 2016, 02:12:02 PM
https://farefreepublictransport.com/city/

Free public transport exist and there arent just two cities in east europe that have it Smiley

Seems france, poland and the us are pioneers regarding free public transport.

To say it is free, doesn't make it free. Transit workers still get paid.

Cool

Yes of course. But i think "free" public transport would be overall better for our society because more people would use it. Way more efficient then everyone driving in their own car.
2728  Economy / Economics / Re: The Halving - Good or Bad for Bitcoin? on: December 30, 2016, 01:51:50 PM



Ok just take the halving date. 28.11.2012
~10 million btc mined
~price was less then 15$ (like around 12 but w/e)

Fast forward to july 2016.

~15,75 million coins mined
~price 675$

December 2016

~16,1 million btc mined
~price 950$

[...] Therefore, it would equal 12+(675-12)/2=~343.5 dollars per coin...


Explain me your maths

What?
Where the hell did you derive that term from?
You just took the price from the final date and halved it??? Are you trolling me?
And how does that formula compute a price of 600$ for 21 million coins now?!  ("Three fourths of the current price")
Nothing what you say makes sense.


Dont tell me about grammar when i just quoted your money token post full of your verbal diarrhea.
It is a wonder you are able to string a sentence together.

2729  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Question: How To Stay in USD When Not In A Bitcoin Trade? on: December 30, 2016, 09:56:15 AM
If you dont have problems with aml and kyc just sell your bitcoins and hold dollar.
You dont have to be sleepless at night...
2730  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Actually, what is ANN? XD on: December 30, 2016, 09:54:05 AM
damn, i read thru so many altcoin announcement

ANN, i always see this when new project announcement launch.

So what is ANN? announcement? A New Noice? Share your knowledge!

Just short for announcement. Wink
2731  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [GBYTE] Byteball Speculation on: December 30, 2016, 09:44:21 AM
70.000 btc linked to 100.000 GB = 7 btc per 10 gb ~= 1 btc per 1.43 GB(=1430 mb?)

Yes.

In the 2nd and following rounds you will only receive 62,5 MB per 1 btc or less?

Yes, plus in the second round at least, you get 0.1 GB for each 1 GB in your byteball linked addresses.

Btw. Byteballs are for free right? It is just not well known so not many people linked their btc.

Yes it is, just link BTC and/or BB addresses and you're good to go, I think one of the reasons why the distribution rules were changed is to enable byteball to get more exposure and attract more linkers.

Do you know why there is so much difference between round 1 ico vs all other rounds?

If they want to distribute as much as possible it makes no sense to give out 20+ times more byteballs in the first round...

Tbh it sounds like a big insider ico.
2732  Economy / Economics / Re: The Halving - Good or Bad for Bitcoin? on: December 30, 2016, 09:33:24 AM
That makes no sense.
Take a random date in 2012 and then extrapolate - we should have a price several magnitudes lower then now

If we take 2012 as a starting point (namely, when the halving occurred, I don't know the exact date), we would have had 50 bitcoins as a mining reward instead of 25. If we assume that the only supply of coins to the market is through mining, it would basically mean (given constant elasticity of price) that by July, 2016, we would have had Bitcoin price at half as much of what it was in reality at the time. But in July all coins would have been mined if I'm not mistaken (i.e. all 21M). Since then there would no supply of new coins to the market altogether, and the price would most likely be where I estimated, i.e. at three fourths of its current value...

And where did you see magnitudes lower here?


Ok just take the halving date. 28.11.2012
~10 million btc mined
~price was less then 15$ (like around 12 but w/e)

Fast forward to july 2016.

~15,75 million coins mined
~price 675$

December 2016

~16,1 million btc mined
~price 950$


Explain me your maths.

(Extrapolate to 15 million coins makes it less then 10$ see the order of magnitude?
Extrapolate to 20 million makes it less then 7.5$)
2733  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Wo mit BTC long gehen? on: December 30, 2016, 08:26:34 AM
OKCoin ... 20x Hebel  Grin

Na da kannste doch auch bei bitmex x100 leveragen  Grin
2734  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin halving to be canceled? on: December 30, 2016, 07:55:52 AM
Because holding doesn't make much sense

Especially, if we are talking about an asset which has no intrinsic value of its own and could easily lose all its speculative worthiness which it has right now. I don't mean today or tomorrow, I'm trying to look further into the future. Could Bitcoin price remain the same over, say, a ten-year time span? As I see it, this is hardly possible. It is basically neck or nothing in the long run for Bitcoin, either win or get nowhere. Indeed, some people may want to hold till the end, but it simply doesn't make sense in the latter case

Bitcoin is the biggest decentralised open-source and most secure computational and financial network.
How can you possibly say that it has no intrinsic value?
Alone the infrastructure (i.e. asics) are worth hundreds of millions $.

Bitcoin is 7 years old now and we are still at the beginning of the adoption curve (much less then 10 million user).

The reason is that people want to be independent and bitcoin gives them the power to be so

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder

If Bitcoin lost a utility for speculation (as well as transactional utility as a currency, however small it might be), it would be worthless despite all the millions invested in mining equipment. When railroads quickly evolved in the 19th century, inland navigation declined as fast, and all those expensive ships and boats became mostly worthless. So how can this utility or value be possibly called intrinsic at all if it can be taken away so easily?


Nonsense again. In your context the intrinsic value of boats and ships are the means of transportation which it still has until today and will have (atleast) in the next coming 50 years.
That is why majority of goods are transported via ultra large cargo ships.
Even if we would just talk about inland transport: dependent on nation, water transportation is still widely used.

Also how can bitcoin lose its transactional utility? We had backlogs of 50+ mb several times this year and the price more the doubled since january

Transactional utility is a utility which is intrinsic to money, but not money token. In other words, money cannot exist without it. It wouldn't be money without it, that's why it is intrinsic to it, but not money token (bitcoins, gold coins, paper bills) possess this utility only as long as they are used as money (as a means of payment specifically). If money tokens are no longer used as money, they evidently lose this utility. So how can transactional utility be intrinsic to Bitcoin if it can easily lose it?

Strictly speaking, there is no intrinsic value or utility in the realm of real things


Are you on meth or any other drugs?

Dont you feel embrassed talking about grammar?
Not even talking about the meaning, which tops pretty much everything i read so far on this board.
2735  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2016, 07:42:21 AM
Is the bottom in or can i still sell?  Lips sealed

You can sell any time that you like.  It depends upon how apportioned you are.  If you are 100% BTC, then maybe you should sell a bit.  If you are only 1% BTC, then maybe it is a decent time to buy some, and figure out a longer term plan rather than asking on the interwebs about what to do about your personal bitcoin allocation situation.

I have 30 btc to play with and some more in cold storage which i wont touch for a long time.
I dont plan to invest more, but rather want to increase my stash with trading. So far this year was quite good with me (us).  Grin
2736  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Two Canadian Girls Arrested for Scamming Nigerian Prince on: December 30, 2016, 07:38:03 AM

How can a billionaire take such horrible looking whores?
Maybe he was a naira (nigerian currency - they really have their own currency) billionare?  Cheesy
2737  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Man-made global warming = Govt take care me for life on: December 30, 2016, 07:30:33 AM
Yes, think of how wonderful it would be to get more humidity. The Sahara could be opened up to homesteading. More heat would open the Northern Canada and Siberian lands to homesteading. All we need is a little more warmth on the planet, and we will have room for triple out population.

First of all, the most fertile lands lying in the lowlands will be swept by the sea, as the polar ice caps melt. Permafrost in Canada and Russia will melt, making these areas uninhabitable. In the end, the total land available will be reduced by more than 50%.

First of all global warming will take care of over population  Grin

As long as we still have the crop production from the usa, china and russia all is good.
2738  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What's your opinion of gun control? on: December 30, 2016, 07:26:30 AM
If it is not possible to protect yourself, that there are few who will do it for you. If we take into account what is happening in Europe, where people are dying of peaceful streets, the availability of weapons could stop the terrorists.

Armed citizens dont stop terrorist. Remember 9/11 [insert any other terror attack]?¿?¿

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clackamas_Town_Center_shooting

This one wasn't covered much...didn't help 'advance the narrative' I suppose.  Might be one of the few which wasn't a staged psy-op even.  Once or twice a year there probably is an genuine organic-ish crack-pot who goes on a rampage.



Good lord that he was a pot head.
Reading the details: 10.000 visitors and he stood in the atrium, opened fire and only killed two people with an AR-15.
2739  Other / Politics & Society / Re: If nuclear war broke out where's the safest place on Earth? on: December 30, 2016, 07:21:28 AM
Nukes dont exist.

Tell that to the hundreds of thousands of people who lost their lives after the Americans nuked Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Tell the same to the millions, who are still suffering from the after-effects of radiation fallout in Japan. It was a crime against humanity, which was never punished. And still we have people, who doubt about the existence of nuclear weapons.

It's called carpet bombing the allies got good at it while practicing on Germany.

Rubbish. Are you claiming that 300,000 people died in Nagasaki and Hiroshima from carpet bombing using conventional weapons? Millions of bombs might have been needed to kill that many through carpet bombing.

No but around 600.000 everywhere else through firebombing. Japans industry areas were destroyed through us air raids and so the japs moved their production into urban areas.
Majority of japanese houses were build from wood and paper. Great firework for the USAF.
2740  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Is taxation theft? on: December 30, 2016, 07:11:40 AM
Taxation is not theft or an act of thieving. Taxation is our share that we must give back to society that transforms into  government welfare services and others.

Your statement might have been true a few decades back. But now, most of the tax revenue is being spent on the defense budget, and for giving salaries to the governmental staff.

Well we need the defense budget because other countries are also spending on defense. As for salaries I don't think so. The rest of the money goes into social programs and infrastructure. Salary is probably a small part of it.

OK.. let's take the American budget as an example. Here:



As you can see, defense and veterans affairs make up 20% of the total spending. Treasury amounts for another 14%.

But the truth is that the military budget is atleast 30% bigger then the base budget you are showing.

Here is something detailed:

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-military-budget-components-challenges-growth-3306320
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