Ok, thanks for posting the new prediction.
However, it does not fit with my EW sub-sub-wave recognition. I expect the peak no later than tomorrow the 30th August, although I can't see any sign in market indicators yet.
The 30th fits from a temporal perspective, but not from money flow or MACD. And the peak could be quickly followed by a whale dump including the 127$ buy wall.
That's what happened in May, with a 25k+ BTC buy wall, also at 127$ IIRC. It could happen again.
Also, the 137$ peak value: it's too high IMO, it would require a buy of 1.8 M$ plus resistance. Do you see that much money available for the push?

I may have an answer for you. After looking again at the recent history, I believe there is one smart whale that started the
last rally to 130+, with a whale buy of about 8k BTC that smashed through the 125 resistance level ( up to 126 ).
Other smaller and slower whales followed, and then some panic buyers. The smart whale has already sold at least 4k BTC
around the 130 price, he positioned his sell orders almost one day before starting the rally ( saw this in the ask sum graph ).
This operation ( repeated ) is an efficient way to pump up the price without losing money. As for the final target of the smart whale,
it's to dump big at a higher price IMO. I have no idea what's his final price - at which he would dump big.
The smart whale could be one of you early adopters, with activity in the hundreds in this forum and ( tens of ? ) thousands of coins.
And he would hate to see his MO uncovered. About what to do in order to better adapt to his strategy, I don't know.
The smart whale covers his actions behind normal market movements, he just triggers them a bit sooner and stronger.

Yeah, this whale driven price trend sucks.

I disagree on the confidence level, I don't see it in the market right now.
On the 19th there was a large rise and then quickly a large fall in the bid sum / ask sum ratio, and yet
the panic buyers kept the price from dropping significantly. Now the ratio hasn't dropped much, but I
don't see significant panic buyer activity ( well, not yet ). Seller pressure is still high right now.
Regarding the bid sum / ask sum ratio, it's important to note that a redistribution of the orders can be misleading.

Chodpaba, would you like to share with us an updated prediction for today's peak?
Yesterday I expected a rather large buy, not whale but large enough to move the price up a bit.
Very short term market indicators were improving and several times small players tried to start
a mini-rally, but seller pressure was too high and kept pushing them back. Considering the
high seller pressure ( as I write this ), is the 137$ peak still in the cards?

And if you investigated and found some reasons for the error to predict the last big rise?
I tried to find the error in my EW recognition, and beside the obvious mistake of counting the
rebound as the first sub-wave, I found that the noise in the price is too high to accurately
recognize EW (actually, sub-sub-waves). From the 20th to the 23rd August there were too many
ups and downs, courtesy of the panic buyers, and the sub-sub-waves got distorted badly.
I do however see promise in counting sub-sub-waves in market indicators, other than price.

IMO the trend for the remainder of 2013 will be somewhat predictable after this current bubble period collapses.
I don't know how much speculator money will stay on Gox. There are 3 options: about the same, large increase,
and large decrease. When there will be blood in the streets this parameter should be more predictable.
We are now almost at the top of the bull market, in about a month we should reach local capitulation.

How about you make some prediction, if you are capable of one. If not then please stop trolling.

If your fiat arrives at Bitstamp in less than 4 weeks, you should be able to buy there at the very bottom.
And if arrives in less than 2 weeks, you might be able to take advantage of the fake return to bull market.

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

Wrong on the 'advice'. Most people on this board are trying to mislead others, I don't. If I make a wrong call, then you may be 100% sure I lost money or missed profit on that wrong call.
So you disagree that if BTC successfully competes with Paypal, the price could climb above 1,000$ / coin?

That's what they claimed. About 100k coins bought for about 1.5 M$, a large part of the missing coins of 2012. If you can prove otherwise, please do so.

As for my wrong decision not to expect a third whale buy, it's my loss. You can rejoice!

I expect another large buy in a couple of hours, but I can't say how strong it will be.
The reserve funds on the bid side are about 1.5M$, but I have no idea how much will be used.

OP, sorry if I hurt your feelings, but I had good intentions. I wish you good luck in holding to your coins on long term.

IMO the train is not close to leaving the station. My guess is that at best BTC is going to compete with Paypal, and this
alone could lead to a price above 1,000$ / coin. But on short term, adoption is still slow, and the transition from
illegal drugs and weapons to mass adoption is very questionable. I rather see BTC used by companies to bribe
government officials all over the world, because BTC transactions are less traceable than bank account transfers.

No. They bought in the second half of 2012 at an average of 15$ / coin, and are one of the reasons
for the bubble spike in April. I doubt they'll buy again above 50$.

Since most posters don't want to tell the OP the naked truth ( and don't want him to learn ), I'll say it again:
It was obviously a stupid move to buy close to the top of a bubble spike, and another stupid move
not to sell on the rebound after the crash ( which many people did ). That was a typical 'one mistake
leads to another' situation. So don't think I'm harsh on you, I made the stupid move to buy
in May at about 110$. That's because I was a total n00b back then. The right time to buy is when
there is ( most ) blood in the streets. And the right time to sell is when the market peaks ( these days ), then
wait for the bottom of the bear market and buy back more. These are very simple market rules, but most posters
want you to just hold to your overpriced coins. Well, maybe next year there will be another bubble spike.

I am sorry for the OP, but he acted stupidly. Selling at 150 would have allowed him to buy back at 100, then sell at 130
and buy back at 70, resulting in a doubling of his coins. OP, if you aren't willing to take a small loss in order to avoid a greater
loss and create the premises for a future win, you'll just have to wait until BTC grows enough to make a profit.

OK, thanks. It's believable, but I have serious doubts that the 135 resistance level will be broken.
Many got stuck there 3 months ago. If however the 135 is broken, I wouldn't be surprised to see 150.
Currently there are about 1.5M$ not deployed, which money if used to buy could set things rolling upwards.

PS. Important memo to myself: don't count the rebound as the first Elliot sub-wave!

Just 1 - 2 days before the market dropping big, we have this large whale buy ( just the 125 wall ) that pushes the price
eventually beyond 130. Question: is this related to the news of the BF meeting or it's something else?
Anyway, this proved that one large whale buy ( or dump ) can't be predicted by TA.
Maybe he's trying to trigger a parabolic rise, but I still doubt he has the means.

Chodbapa, would you mind issuing another prediction, considering that the parameters have changed ( at least as I see )?

Shhh, don't tip the uber-bulls...
// start sarcasm
Uber-bulls have nothing to worry about, the price is going 'up uP UP', 'to da moon', parabolic, whatever you want.
// end sarcasm

The analysis you wrote in the first post is believable, but these factors will affect the price on long term,
while the title says 'downward move imminent'. While it is imminent, it has little to do with the 3 factors
you mentioned. It's about demand, supply and market sentiment (mostly bullish now, but changing).
It takes several days for the panic buyers (who bought and held in the 120 - 125 range) to convert into panic sellers,
but we'll see this happen very soon. The unknown (to me) is the size of the upcoming drop.
For the median term, it's way too early to tell how much speculator money (fiat) will stay on Gox, and that sets the trend.

Sorry, I don't use tradingview. And I didn't paint a prediction on the chart, I asked you to just look at the 9th to 21st June interval, that's wave B of the previous bubble period.

I don't predict it, EW theory predicts it, and it happened before between about 9th to 21st June.
But I can't predict how this will unfold now, under different market conditions.
It's followed by the 5 downward sub-waves that lead to total capitulation, most blood in the streets, and time to buy back.