While I agree with the OP that bitcoin has pretty much reached it's full potential on a technology scale, the lag in public perception may lead to a widespread understanding of this only much later, I hope in 2017.
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The bid sum on Bitstamp reached (for a short time, it recovered a bit) the lowest point of this year, at just above 3 M$. I noticed a discrepancy between the evolution of bids on Bitstamp and on Chinese exchanges, and I believe that Chinese coins have been dumped for months. If it's westerners returning profits from China or new coins mined in China and used for capital transfer, I can't tell, but the effect is the same.
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... I am also a bit puzzled by this div as I feel the bottom is far from in yet. Especially since it's on daily, which intuitively should signal at least a mid-long term trend reversal like in April this year. However, I see that in 2011 it took 4(!) concurrent daily bull divs before the bear market was broken. Who knows, maybe there is hope for more falling knives still I hope this bear market won't further unfold like 2011, not only because the price might fall below 200$, but also because it could last another 5 - 6 months, and I'm bored of it.
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snip
We arrive again at US $ 1.200 or more in the future?
Since this question seems directed at me, I'll try to answer: if the bottom won't be below 250$, then IMO a return to the ATH and more in the second half of 2015 is almost certain. But for me the most important is that bitcoin stays healthy until the second half of 2016, when the block reward halving combined with a general uptrend should create a nice mania phase.
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RyNinDaCleM would you mind elaborating on that unbelievably (for me, and I'm a bear!) bearish scenario. Do you mean that if long term support at 340$ will be broken (and I believe it will be), then what follows might be a death spiral? Months ago I made this prediction, and I was called insane for making it: Tzupy, what's your ~ target for bottom of Wave C at this time? Between 80$ (harsh scenario, 2011 like) and 300$ (mild scenario, 2013 like), Gox prices.
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12h MACD suggests upcoming testing (major, I doubt it will break) of resistance at 430$ again.
Tested and broken, this looks a bit more bullish that expected. And again the CCMF, to da moon, whatever talk... And if 5 - 6 days from now it'll start dropping again, the sky will be falling.
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12h MACD suggests upcoming testing (major, I doubt it will break) of resistance at 430$ again.
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The triangle broke down, but I doubt that it will continue. There is a bigger triangle that will break after several days.
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This model in which Chinese buy BTC directly from the miners in order to get $ out of China by dumping on foreign exchanges is not just bearish, but worrisome for the future recovery. Eventually the Chinese authorities will stop it and seller pressure will lessen.
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Explain your solution how to solve problem "Chinese government will invest billions into miners(HW) and will build power plant and then use this power to double spend or disallow normal transactions"
I didn't want to get into this dispute, but... why the hell would the Chinese gov invest billions? Those billions will be spent on weapons and luxury houses for the ruling communist party. The PBoC has already reduced bitcoin to a marginal role in China, if they want they can ban it once and for all, no need to spend millions, let alone billions.
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Bidwall from $280 & ~$370 moved to $398; BTC800 monkey continues to say it trends down for a few hours (and days)
WTF is monkey?AFAIK it's aminorex's prediction tool (neural network?).
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My point is that historical patterns shouldn't be measured with the same metric.
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A large mining operation most likely has some staff able to do good TA. For them it matters when they sell in order to maximize profits. If the TA staff sees a clear downtrend for the next month, they may decide to sell all currently mined and some of the stash, to have fiat for bills until the recovery.
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Now that bitcoin is dead, we know for sure that even so, it does not stink. That's progress.
If bitcoin is dead for you now, then in about a month you'll think it stinks.
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Just realized that bitcoin price has never closed below weekly lower bb in history. More than, price never hit lower-equal than -1 deviation on weekly timescale.
That's not as bearish as it looks, because the market movements take so much longer now than in late June - early July 2013. If you look at the daily charts for that period, price being just below the BB was very common towards the bottom.
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