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2741  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 05:39:41 PM
Have we officially gone parabolic?
This has happened twice before in Bitcoin's history:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zigDailyztgSzm1g7zm2g25zl

The last two times, we went up about 1.5 orders of magnitude quickly, spent some time cooling off.
2742  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 18, 2013, 10:28:12 AM
There's no way the FBI gives them up. 
They won't give them up, but the NSA might deploy Stuxnet to steal them.
2743  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 18, 2013, 10:24:11 AM
Haha.  No way.  If anything Bernanke is eyeing the FBI's stash and thinking about how he can QE the bitcoin economy.
There's going to be a brawl involving the  Federal Reserve, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs over who gets those spoils.
2744  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 10:22:14 AM
Things are not looking good for the USD. It's fallen below the 2 mBTC level for the first time ever:

2745  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 18, 2013, 10:14:49 AM
For the first time ever, one ounce of gold buys less than 3 bitcoins.
2746  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 18, 2013, 10:10:37 AM
Added another week's worth of data:

2747  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 09:57:05 AM
Fiat is a game of hot potato, and you really don't want to be the loser.
2748  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin at the US Senate on: November 18, 2013, 09:55:08 AM
I disagree.  It would be a vastly different game at that point.  Namely a totalitarian police state.  The USSR was crumbling militarily and there was basically no hope.  The U.S. is at a high point and I don't think the leadership, or at least certain of it, has any intention of giving up the goal of dominating the current century since there is a reasonable possibility that it could be pulled off.
Your description about the current state of the US is exactly what everybody was saying about the USSR near the end too.

It seems to me that "crumbling" is an apt description of a military that loses more soldiers to suicide than enemy action.

"Crumbling" also describes the morale of government employees and public confidence in general. I mean, they can't even get a simple website right.
2749  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 09:15:37 AM
You can't win.
If you have Bitcoins, you win.
2750  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 08:34:18 AM
Just remember no matter how badly you trade, at least you're not this guy (remember him?): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3xhyj-e0Kk
2751  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin at the US Senate on: November 18, 2013, 08:06:29 AM
I think it a pretty decent hypothesis that our leadership will try to play the so-called 'welfare hordes' against the middle class.
That only happens if the leadership believes their interests are best served by keeping the game going.

They could just be like Gorbachev: loot what they can and then retire in style somewhere else.
2752  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: The problem with bitcoin on: November 18, 2013, 07:51:04 AM


Can we get a bot that automatically detects these posts and sends people to the Wiki or something to explain why deflation isn't the end of the world?
2753  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin at the US Senate on: November 18, 2013, 07:43:49 AM
The thesis also helps me get over the pain mis-estimating of the likely posture of various officials.  OTOH, it is normal practice to attempt to calm an animal before sticking the knife in it's jugular.  I guess we'll just have to see how things play out.
One optimistic interpretation of the surveillance and anti-insurgency machinery being put into place right now is that it's not aimed at the productive portion of the population but rather is being constructed in anticipation of the apparatchik and welfare hordes going apeshit when the checks stop flowing.

Anyone who's been paying attention realizes those two groups (especially the apparatchik) are insane.

Look at what happened a few years back when a couple state governors suggested that public sector unions take the slightest bit of future concessions with regards to collective bargaining: death threats, strikes, and near riots.

Imagine what they'll do when the "out of business" sign goes up for real.

Incidentally this theory also explains why zombie movies got popular all of a sudden: it's our collective unconscious awareness of this impending scenario.
2754  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 07:09:26 AM
Danger: Curving upward on the log chart. If we don't get a correction soon this could be the final blow-off to quadruple digits then crash.

Someone please STOP THIS THING Grin

Look at this chart, and compare the $10->$266->$100 period from earlier this year with the 2011-February through 2011-April time period: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyztgSzm1g7zm2g25zl

I'd post a chart with those two regions circled, but my MSPaint skills aren't good enough.
2755  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: No Chargebacks; All Transactions Final: Won't Fly. on: November 18, 2013, 07:02:45 AM
Short answer: We're going to have consumer protection, and it won't require altering the Bitcoin protocol to include chargebacks.
2756  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin at the US Senate on: November 18, 2013, 06:54:16 AM
They want to control it. First it starts with "monitoring" and "regulation," then it moves to "auditing" and "taxation" and "identity verification" and blacklisting coins, then eventually they use "eminent domain" on the bitcoin protocol and begin issuing coins themselves to "better protect the American public."
You are correct that this is the normal state of operation of the government.

This may not actually be how it plays out this time, however.

The behaviour you're describing is how governments behave during their ascendancy phase.

As the system approaches Peak Government, however, they start employing different strategies. If you want to know that looks phase looks like, play close attention to the behaviour of the high level bureaucrats and politicians in the former USSR during the time period between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the USSR.

It's possible the USA is on the cusp of the "rats fleeing from a sinking ship" portion of the cycle.
2757  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Coinbase defrauding customers, misleading ! on: November 18, 2013, 06:44:36 AM
I don't know if Rees or Olaf will ever respond to me.  Sad
Try sending Olaf a message through this forum's PM system.
2758  Economy / Web Wallets / Re: Blockchain.info - Bitcoin Block explorer & Currency Statistics on: November 18, 2013, 06:39:35 AM
BIP32 support means there's no reason for Blockchain.info wallets to reuse addresses.
2759  Economy / Web Wallets / Re: Blockchain.info - Bitcoin Block explorer & Currency Statistics on: November 18, 2013, 06:14:53 AM
BIP32 support?
2760  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Miners: Time to deprioritise/filter address reuse! on: November 18, 2013, 01:30:32 AM
IMHO coins are simply coins.
On a related note, that's what I tried to express here: http://bitcoinism.blogspot.com/2013/11/eli5-bitcoin.html
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