Most people don't believe the 'to da moon' slogan, so yes, a market reversal is expected soon.
But does your analysis show that this last peak was the 3rd sub-wave of wave 5, and not the 2nd?

In the meantime, while the market should slowly drop towards 114, it plays with itself at 118...

IMO there will be another rally in 4 - 5 days, but the chances of rising to 180 are minuscule.
I'm pretty sure it will be at least 125, maybe 130. If there will be lots of panic buys, could be 140.
But until then, price has to drop to 115 (maybe 114) first, this is the correct price in 1 - 2 days.

That's your problem: transfers to the USA or close allies.
I believe that until the potential terrorist threats around September 11 get cleared by the DHS,
Gox is going to continue delaying transfers to the USA (well, not Gox itself, the banks working with Gox).

The 123 push was no whale, just panic buyers.
There were people getting out of Gox via coins and Bitstamp, where they are probably selling now or will sell when the next rally happens.
But my 15 days crude estimate is about the sub-waves 4 and 5 of the main Elliot wave.

The big whale only bought at the bottom of this rally, smaller whales followed.
As for the missing coins, they may show up for sale on Gox in about 15 days (that's a crude estimation).

Do you mean, after we broke 120, you still see sideways and down?

IMO the whale is the one who has removed about 40k - 50k BTC from the ask sum, and drove
the price to the current high. It's also the one with the fake buy orders from 105 to 110, that are
only a scaffold for the sheeple to place their orders and then to be fleeced.
I admit that there could be several whales acting together, not just one big whale.

No more peak predictions from chodpaba? The way I see the market, we seem to be stuck.
The whale isn't willing (as I write this) to buy at 115, and the rest of the market seems weak.
He is just herding the market into buying, but this isn't working well until now.
Is there still a chance that we hit 120, or 115 was the peak of this bubble period?
I mean, if the sideways continues for several days, this counts as local peaks in the
5th wave, and we know what happens at the end of wave 5: harvesting.

I too would like to see a price difference (on average) not larger than 2 $ between MtGox and Bitstamp.
So I wish you good luck with establishing an arbitrage scheme. But I suspect this has already been going
on by JPY, on a scale small enough so the difference stays above 8% (ensuring a nice profit).

For now, there is only potential to reach 120, and then if we entered a positive feedback loop, even
500 would have been possible. But I suspect the whales are going to wait for the sheeple to place
a bid wall around 112, then dump big. If the current situation continues for a while (no break through 120),
then it's going to be harvest time IMO. I am still 100% coins, with a sell order at 124.9x, just in case.

Right now it looks like whales herding the sheeple into buying up to the 115 wall.
I hope I'm wrong and we'll see 120, but for now this looks fishy to me.

Patience I do have, but this has the potential to unfold AGAIN during the night (my time), and I can't stay awake more than 3.00 am.

We should have been at 114 by now. Something is brewing...

Yes, it was 135 or 136. But there also was a juicy 25k+ BTC buy wall at 127 $. What's your point with the 136 $ peak value?

PS. Bid sum has risen a lot in a short time. Maybe a mini-rally is on the way?

Would you mind answering this ignorant's question on the previous page?

So, do you believe we are in wave B now? That was my theory, but the higher top 2 days ago made me doubt it.
My theory is that the Elliot wave pattern has a rising base, due to the BTC withdrawals from MtGox.
So the peak of August 1st was the real wave 5, and the peak of August 15 was wave B's top.
But capitulation is associated with cash-out. If the main way to cash out of Gox is via BTC purchase,
can't we see 5 capitulation sub-waves that move the price up instead of down?

On bitcoincharts it looks like it went up to 114, I think clarkmoody is not working in real time.
PS. Refreshed clarkmoody, not it shows corrected to 114.

I suspect there was some arbitrage going on between Bitstamp and MtGox, possibly through JPY.
Maybe some people did a half-arbitrage, like me: bought at 97.7 on Bitstamp, sold at 114.5 on MtGox.  

Since some post were about me, let me clarify some aspects: I can make a decent profit if there's at least 3% difference between two local
minimums / maximums, considering a 0.8% (2x 0.4%) commission and adequate volume (which has been a problem lately on Gox).
But my biggest problem is catching the peaks and bottoms while I am not sleeping, because guessing the precise values for the peaks and
bottoms is bloody difficult for me (to place an order overnight). I moved to Gox from Bitstamp because of the higher volumes, but in the
meantime that advantage of Gox has diminished. I also can't do delayed arbitrage anymore (obviously), so I might move back to Bitstamp.
It was easy to reach their 0.5% (2x 0.25%) commission, on Gox to reach 0.6% (2x 0.3%) I'd have to almost double my trades, can't do that yet.

I was talking hypothetically. In the current situation, trying to buy 100k at Fort Gox could trigger a panic buy that might reach 4,000$ / coin (or more).
But I suspect the feds, in some form, are already hindering $ outflow from Gox. Like the banksters and Gox's incompetent management weren't enough...