Yep.. Dailyscript brought down the team's average pushups per day below 100..   There is some kind of an error in Dailyscript's most recent report  - 3.99 pushups per day for 100 days, surely is bringing down the average number of push-ups per day for the rest of us...

Edit: By the way, after looking at Dailyscript's prior entry in the table, he had 3 days and 299 pushups, so I think that in his latest report, he had likely meant to say in his report 4 days and 399 pushups... another thing to do in order to help to preserve the pushup numbers for the rest of us (take one for the team) could be to eliminate his name from the pushups table since substantively it does not meet the 10 pushups per day requirement.


If you think about it, in terms of percentages, $100k is not very much different from our current price.. it is right around 57% higher than $63,800.

And, if we measure from our already reached ATH of $73,794 then it is less than 36% higher than that.. so yeah, even though we are doing these pushups for funzies and using $100k as a target, the target is not even really very unreachable, even if we were to compare the prices from the earliest days of this push-up challenge, and let's say we started right around $43k.. so then that give us about a 133% increase from that starting point, and in traditional investing that would be BIG, but in bitcoin those are not so impossible to witness those levels of price increases.

Right around 4 years ago, we were somewhat struggling to get back above $10k, and look at us now, 6x higher and still a lot of ongoing and persistent upward pressures on BTC prices - in spite the many recent ongoing attacks on self-custody... .. remember self-custody is what actually gives bitcoin power, so even the big player financial institutions are going to lose the upwards price pressures on their financial products if various players were to actually be successful in neutering BTC's self-custody attributes - and yeah maybe that is what they want, to turn bitcoin into some kind of a neutered and controlled product - which likely is not going to help anyone in terms of the debt-ladened mess in which the current financial system finds itself... so are some of these BIG players considering that they can still have the sound money aspects of bitcoin (in it's limited supply) without retaining the self-sovereignty aspects of self-custody... and I am not sure how possible it would be able to attempt to selectively neuter aspect of bitcoin and still allow bitcoin to retain meaningful power.. like a different kind of bitcoin is being pushed for, but it is just a battle that likely has to continue to play out.. and see where it goes.. while in the meantime hopefully many of us are figuring out ways to self-custody some decent quantities of our total stash.

this report hardly makes any sense.

You have been doing pushups for 100 days (starting before this thread started), and so you have an average of 39.9 pushups per day?

Something is surely wrong with your report.


For sure, push ups are not easy, and we are not going to naturally be able to do a lot of them or even to keep up with numbers that we did previously unless we are specifically doing push-ups as an exercise or some similar kinds of resistance training exercises that exercise the upper body muscles.

Of course, if we are staring to get older or maybe we are otherwise not a very athletic person, then we also might have declines in our abilities to do pushups, but even younger folks should have greater abilities to build back their muscle than older folks, absent some specific medical condition.   

I am pretty sure that there had been articles presented in this thread earlier about regular folks starting to lose their muscle mass starting in their mid-30s unless there are active measures to try to retain such muscle mass.


If you are in as bad of a shape that you claim to be in, then start with something between 5-10 pushups and three sets per day.. and then work your way up to 10 pushups and 5 sets a day.. and that could take you a couple of months to get there.. but try to do at least three sets per day, and it would be better if you are able to do 10 pushups in each of your sets.

Another possibility, if it is too difficult to do full pushups, then do modified pushups from your knees or perhaps pushing against the wall or some other way of having your feet lower than your upper body with a goal of getting to a point that you could do 10 full pushups per set and 3-5 sets per day.

Of course you can move your goals upward or downwardly in order to account for the amount of tiredness and/or muscle/joint pains you are feeling.

I still feel quite a few pains, but they are not as lingering as they were in the beginning.  In the beginning (especially after a couple of weeks), my pains pretty much lasted all day long and I was continuously tired from the extra efforts of the pushups, and so even though I still have soreness and overall tiredness, it has gotten better - especially included that physically I am more capable to do more pushups (and consistently so) than I was able to do in earlier times.

I am not totally better.. but surely there are several areas of noticeable improvement in physique, strength and just overall feeling s of being able to exert myself with confidence.


Of course, women do not need to do modified pushups.  It will depend on her own goals and abilities, so she can choose if she wants to do full pushups or modified pushups (or even a combination of them)..

To me, it does seem that full pushups put more pressure on holding the full core.... and I would not presume that a woman who comes to this thread, admits she is a woman, says that she wants to do pushups is going to want to actually do modified pushups.. but yeah, maybe I am presuming too much because surely there are some women who might purposefully do the easier version of pushups because they purposefully prefer to try to tone their upper body rather than wanting to build upper body muscles - like  guys might want to try to do.. ...

---

Regarding my own report, I had another day (yesterday) of less than 5 sets in the day, and I was in the middle of some social things around the time that I was supposed to do my 5th set of the day, and I was thinking about doing my last set, but I just could not bring myself to do that set (so I only got in 4 sets for yesterday)..

Even though the days of my carrying out fewer sets ended up with lower quantities of pushups, that result has been putting more pressure on me regarding to whether I will reach an average of 200 pushups per day in the next 9 days (by my 100th pushup day). 

Nonetheless, I still seem to be on schedule..

With 2,085 more pushups needed to reach 20k pushups, I just need to do on average of at least 231.67 per day in the next 9 days in order to reach my target of having had done 20k pushups by day 100..

Anyhow here's my report, and I already did all 5 of my sets for today.

100k,JayJuanGee,91,17915,2024-05-05

That sounds like a trader speaking, and we should not presume that people who buy bitcoin are traders.

There are a lot of us why specifically recommend not to trade bitcoin, but instead to long term invest it, so in that sense, you do not have to focus much on selling it or when you sell it, until after you have accumulated enough and perhaps been in it for a long enough time.. so then the decisions about when and how to sell could well come later, even 10, 20 or 30 years after being in it...

Yet, of course, it would be difficult to suggest that anyone buying bitcoin for 10, 20 or 30 years not think about selling at all, since the selling kinds of considerations would likely have to do with the person's situation in terms of how aggressively or whimpily he might have been accumulating BTC in light of his own financial and/or psychological circumstances.


Surely there is nothing wrong with buying on dips, but a person who has a tight budget might not really be in a situation to change the amount of his weekly-ish investment into bitcoin, so he might well be buying at any price until he works up a bitcoin holding that he believes is enough or more than enough.

I have not yet seen anything about 47k BTC being accumulated, but yeah, surely in these times, it is may well be easier to NOT to be surprised various kinds of ongoing buying pressures.

Of course, there are face to face transactions that are more difficult to stop, yet still there are challenges of bitcoiners getting to know each other, whether it would be the creation of meetups, and surely some communication channels, like Nostr are attempting to make it possible to communicate without having third party intermediaries.  Even though I don't disagree with you about some needs for decentralized exchanges, I doubt that a main solution would be decentralized exchanges when there are also a variety of ways to attempt  to interact with people directly.. which yeah is a way of sort of saying the same thing. .communication channels in which no one can interfere.. and sometimes that can be merely to get connected in order to meet in person, and if people want bitcoin for providing goods and services, then those kinds of channels can be helpful towards bitcoiners too.

For sure, it takes fewer and fewer bitcoin in order to have a significant amount.. so in my fuck you status chart, you can see that in order to reach fuck you status, the quantity of bitcoin in order to reach entry-level fuck you status has been going way down from how many coins were needed in earlier years.


Part of the problem for folks who might choose not to buy, even when the BTC price is at a seemingly high place, is that they cannot know that the BTC price is going to either stay flat or to correct back down from the seemingly high priced place in which they consider entering the market.  So, in that sense, the only way to prepare for further up is to buy some... and so if there might be some concerned about the price being high, then maybe there would be some reservations in regards to how much bitcoin would be bought at such seemingly higher prices.

No one is really going to know the answer, even though it may well start to seem as if some price levels are less sustainable than others, someone with no coin or low coins might still consider some advantages in buying those seemingly higher prices while another person who might have come close to reaching his accumulation level or has reached his accumulation level or has exceeded his accumulation level, might feel some justification in waiting rather than buying (which could translate into keeping the extra value in cash or perhaps putting the value in some other asset).

I think that part of the point is that we have a pretty good idea that BTC is going to be volatile, yet we cannot know exactly how much in either direction, while at the same time, we have some fairly strong senses that the price is going to be going up over the long run, while not being completely sure about that, how much it will go up or even how long it will take to go up.


Probably the more important part is the ongoing management of one's own cashflow... and yes within that there can be concerns about how aggressive the person is able to be in terms of ongoing bitcoin accumulation.


That sounds right.


When comparing to one's self, there can be various scenarios that are considered in terms of both projecting forward but also looking back, so surely there can be assessments regarding the level of aggressiveness, or how organized a person is in his finances or even assessment  of various mistakes that were made.. so one side and the other side (or variations) can be compared in each of these kinds of scenarios.


Sometimes when the BTC price dips, we just do not know if it is going to recover or not, or if we might be beginning a longer correction cycle or even a bear market.

Sure the four-year cycle and even things that are going on in the world (whether it is ETF approvals and/or government attacks on BTC) give us some guideline and some historical references, but none of those things guarantee price direction.. yet I am overall in agreement with you in terms of some value in buying on dips, especially for guys who are in a stage of their BTC accumulation that might be other than pure DCA strategies. .., which in other words, DCA is likely going to continue to work best for most newbies who are still building their BTC stash and who might be within the first 4 years or so of their BTC accumulation (and who might not have had been able to significantly front load their BTC investment).  Otherwise, there is nothing wrong with employing a combination of strategies...

 

So far in bitcoin's history, it has ONLY gone down below the 200-WMA the one time (between June 2022 and October 2023), at least for sustainable periods of time, so there surely may well be quite a bit of value to buy all the way down, because you cannot really know how far the BTC price is going to correct back down or how close it might get to the 200-WMA or if it might go below the 200-WMA again.

My tentative current expectation is that the BTC price will not go below 20% above the 200-WMA for the next 18 months or so, and sure I could be wrong in that expectation, but that is currently how I am considering the matter, absent some facts changing, and there have been so many times that I have been wrong in various tentative expectations that I have in regards to bitcoin's price movement - and so in that sense I don't make any kinds of meaningful changes in my own strategies, and/or BIG bets based on various tentative expectations that I form from time to time. 

   

Of course, no problem with that.  Each of us should be attempting to strike a balance that is sufficiently comfortable.


Some of them legally cannot do it.. They absolutely cannot buy bitcoin and hold it themselves, so the ETFs provide vehicles for them to get in, and there is almost no way that they were going to set of their own third-party custodian situation in order to achieve some level of bitcoin price exposure, since that is what they seem to want to achieve.. They are not concerned about being able to directly experience the various powers that come from self-custody - even though surely some individuals will end up learning about bitcoin based on their institutions getting involved in the ETF, and some of them will choose to get involved in bitcoin self-custody - in spite of various ways that self-custody seems to be under-attack in recent times.


I don't really object to your idea of buying below $100 as a kind of early adopter status, yet earlier adopter status is on a kind of spectrum with a lot of differing levels of early adopter, since if you think about it, even those various early adopter who bought a decent number of BTC below $100, they likely also got into bitcoin at various prices along the way and maybe also sold too much too soon, so they might have spent some time reacquiring some of the bitcoin that they sold.  

So, it can be a bit problematic to attempt to describe anyone in terms of locking in some kind of early adopter price.

There may be some real world feasibility for any of us to consider in regards to various costs of our BTC, since we might have certain amounts of bitcoin at various costs, and then we also have our overall average cost per BTC, and depending upon what we are calculating, we might use different calculations in order to either justify differing actions or to tell different stories about our BTC stash and aspects of our bitcoin journey. which can have real world results in terms of how many BTC we might be choosing to sell later down the road, and then how to calculate it.


Regarding your last sentence, I think that one of the most important things with bitcoin is to get started, so sure it is important to figure out your finances, but it still seems that the message should be to get started rather than suggesting that there might be complications in regards to having to learn things first.

Even though I know that there are some folks who are completely fucked up in terms of their organization skills and they have also gotten themselves in to various pickles in regards to how they manage their finances, and there are a lot of people who gamble in the way that they manage their money.  At the same, time I would like to presume that an overwhelming majority of folks have enough of an assessment of their cashflow to figure out if they have $10 or $100 per week or some other reasonable quantity that they can get started investing into bitcoin right away without putting themselves into worse finances than they might already be.

The mere organization of finances and also and putting together various budgeting matters is likely going to make a lot of people more rich - even though the more richness might not happen right away, but perhaps just over 3-4 years, a person who organizes their finances (which may or may not include putting some of that into bitcoin) is likely going to feel richer, and of course, having a stake in bitcoin seems quite likely to even put them in a greater position of actually being better off (even though there are no guarantees of such).


You make several good points Lidger - yet you deviate in a couple of regards - especially in the sentence that I bolded above.

1) sure no problem with planning, but it does not need to be accomplished prior to investing into bitcoin.. it can be done simultaneously

and

2) Fuck shitcoins and talking about the right coin.... that is misleading 1st because we are not talking about shitcoins in this thread and second because shitcoins are likely not investing, a waste of time and if you actually cannot resist the temptation to buy shitcoins, then limit the amount to less than 10% of the size of your bitcoin investment size, without cheating in regards to allowing shitcoin suck value from your portfolio.


I am not really against anything that you said, yet I would like to say that there can be levels of BTC accumulation that is enough and/or too much, so then once you feel that you have too much BTC, then you can figure out ways to sell some of it without feeling guilty about shaving some off here and there.  And, for sure, I am not suggesting that anyone should be selling large portions of his BTC stash.  

Even though there can be some accounting difficulties in spending BTC, I am not really against the idea of using bitcoin for transactions, especially in a sell and replace way, even if you might not really make any money in engaging in such conduct,, but surely if businesses support bitcoin transactions, that should help to inspire any of us bitcoiners to want to use their services, when it seems somewhat reasonable for us to do so.. which would be spend and replace.,. but yeah, I understand that sometimes there can be extra transactional obstacles that discourage spending and replacing kinds of activities.

Let's say that you have a bunch of UTXOs that are $10 or less.. I am not sure how you would have very many UTXOs smaller than $10 because the BTC price has gone up quite a bit, so even if you were receiving transactions for less than $10, the price has gone up too.. .. but  yeah the UTXOs could be problematic anywhere between $10 and $100.. and at the same time, I still have difficulties expecting to be able to process transactions less than 5 sats per vbyte on any kind of a regular basis, and maybe we will have similar kinds of difficulties in processing transactions less than 10 sats per vbyte.. -especially on a regular basis, so yeah, I was saying 1,650 for the whole transaction at 15 sats per vbyte (which was currently about $1.,, so yeah maybe getting some for $0.50 .. but then we expect the BTC price to go up and some other efficiencies to be created, but still at the same time ongoing increasing adoption.. So, I having trouble considering those low on chain transaction fees, except maybe once in a while having some temporary dips.

There are a variety of ways that people can attempt to address the ways in which they might maintain active relations with exchanges if they are using exchanges as off and on ramps, but if there are various places in which a guy can spend his bitcoin without going through exchanges, then that could be another option.  There are various jurisdictions that make it difficult to engage in peer to peer trading, but if any of us develops communities of peer to peer trading, there might not be much that could be done about that.. so yeah, surely guys have to figure out if they are o.k. holding thousands of dollars of value in bitcoin privately and if they don't have any ways to cash in and out of it, then they might get stressed by those kinds of circumstances.


I do think that practice can improve on those kinds of skills, so a person can  start out by investing a small amount into bitcoin, but if they end up screwing up because they did not engage in good financial management, they might blame bitcoin rather than blaming themselves.  There is ONLY so much that anyone can do to help other people in terms of their needing to figure out their own balances in regards to their financial management, and surely I frequently say that the stronger that a person might have emergency funds, reserves and a good cash float, then the more abilities that he would have to be more aggressive in his bitcoin investment without having to worry about overdoing it.. since in the case of good organization, the amount of funds are already set up and their purposes are understood, and so yeah sometimes a person might get sloppy or use their reserves and their float or maybe they dip into their emergency fund, so if they do not replenish something like their emergency fund in a timely manner, then they could end up with an actual emergency and then not have enough funds to cover it so then they end up having to dip into their BTC investment, and their cash management was supposed to be in place in order to not put oneself into a position that he has to dip into his BTC at a time that is anything other than his own choosing.


There can be tendencies to devolve into gambling and over doing it and becoming emotional, yet there are also practices to start out somewhat slow and to accustom oneself to the budgetary requirements of having an long term investment that is 4-10 years or more, and so a person needs to be careful to not invest too much because then s/he would be using money that it more than his/her discretionary income, meaning that it is money that is needed for expenses, needs or wants.. and so that money should not be put into bitcoin.

Sure it is good to have a longer time line, and that was part of the reason that I outlined the examples to show that the longer that we invest, even if we might start out at a market top, we still might well end up still putting ourselves into a good position.. even though surely it is not guaranteed, but we can see how our BTC portfolio is growing over a timeframe in which we might continue to buy for 4 years or more and then perhaps reassess if we might need to make any changes to what we are doing or just keep buying regularly.


Even if an investor has the same strategy, he might end up buying bitcoin at a higher price and then a lower price, so even a guy that got into bitcoin earlier could end up having a higher cost per BTC than someone who came in later, but in the longer run, he still would end up having more BTC, so the time in the market may still end up being better, even if he ended up with a bit of a higher cost per BTC than someone who came in later.  At the same time, there is ONLY so much value in comparing to other people, but a guy could still compare to himself at time one or time 2, and surely I am not much of a proponent for waiting, even though I know that sometimes, there may need to be adjustments to how much is bought based on anticipations of price conditions, including being able to buy BTC as the price is going down, if that might end up being a guy's point of entrance into BTC.


Sure.  How much invested is part of the formula, and another part of the formula is how much BTC each of them has.

The first guy has 0.5386 BTC  and the second guy has 0.4489 BTC. and sometimes we still cannot change the facts and/or the prices in which we end up accumulating BTC, and there may well be cases in which we acquire a bunch of BTC, and then the price goes down, and then we see some later entrants who are able to buy more BTC than we have for lower prices.. so yeah, we cannot necessarily avoid some of those kinds of situations, and we just need to do our best in terms of building our own stack so we feel as if we are prepared the potential of UP and also for down too.


Yes.  A guy could have bought various BTC earlier and ended up with $10k invested and 10 BTC and an average cost per BTC of around $1k, and he could choose whether or not to keep investing or if he believes that he has met his BTC accumulation goal and whether he is in a position to change his BTC strategy to something else.  Holding BTC gives options, and it may not be a great idea for anyone to just start cashing out his BTC  in large amounts, so personally I believe that there are ways to sustainably withdraw bitcoin through either time based withdrawal strategies or raking strategies that involve selling as the price goes up (I talk about both of those kinds of strategies in my sustainable withdrawal thread), yet a person still needs to figure out how much of an income he might want to get from his BTC in order to conclude whether he has enough BTC to start to employ sustainable withdrawal or if he wants to keep accumulating for a while or if he might just want to wait for a while between accumulation and when he might start to employ some other kinds of practices.

A lot of squigglies. not sure if they mean much of anything.. and yeah of course, we had a correction and we have been a little more than 7 weeks into the correction, and we are going into a weekend.. when volumes tend to be a bit lower. .but still I cannot see this as any point in which it is make or break in either direction..

I doubt that we should be measuring our BTC investment in short time frames, and surely if we measure in 4 year or longer time frames, then we likely are going to be doing quite well, even right now.

Let me take a couple of shorter time frames and let's see where we might be, even if we started investing $100 per week in BTC at various high price points in 2021.

Example 1: Started buying $100 per week at the beginning of the year right before the first 2021 price peak.  We would have had invested $17,500, and we would have about 0.5386 BTC (currently worth about $33,833) (so nearly 100% in profits... or nearly doubled in value.


Example 2: Starting in October 2021 - right before the second peak in the BTC price. The guy buying $100 per week would have had invested $13,600, and we would have about 0.4489 BTC (currently worth about $28,218) (so a little more than 100% in profits... or more than doubled in value.

Those first two examples are not quite right, even thought the first guy has more BTC than the second one.. so usually the longer that you are buying BTC then the more likely you would be in higher levels of profits..

Let's try another example (Example 3) of a person who has been buying $100 per week for the last 4 years, so that would take us back to May 2020...  He would have had invested $20,900 and accumulated 0.8405 BTC (currently worth about $52,909) (so about 150% in profits...

Let's try another example (Example 4) of a person who has been buying $100 per week the last 7 years, so that would take us back to May 2017.. back before the 2017 run up...  He would have had invested $36,600 and accumulated 3.689 BTC (currently worth about $232,300) (so about 535% in profits...

So there is a kind of tendency that the longer that you invest, then the more likely you are going have created more options for yourself, as long as you mostly accumulate and protect your stash from getting taken from you... maybe privately storing it.


We can likely see it in our BTC portfolio with the passage of time, so no one would have to tell us; however, surely in the first 4 years or so, it might not be so clear regarding the amount of profits, so sometimes it can take a while to see that the bitcoin investment had given more options by investing into it as compared to not having had invested into it (or perhaps choosing to invest your money in other places).

You are absolutely no fun.

Actually, from a post from yesterday, I had already decided that I was going to cook up some luxury Ramen.  I am mixing it with some other ingredients that I have.. so I am not sure how it is going to turn out. .. but I had been thinking about it for the last day or so..


The debate starts in maybe 14 minutes (from the time of this post), and I hate listening to things like that, which are live (since I cannot speed it up).

And would it be crypto or bitcoin?   It is a bit ambiguous from the link..

The two supposedly pro-Bitcoin debaters are a bit of shitcoiners (or at least multi-coiners), even though they fairly smart guys and likely mostly able to know what bitcoin is as compared with shitcoins, but there might be some shitcoiner and/or crypto confusing language in the mix of the debate, so I am not sure how much of a waste of time it would be to attempt to watch.. hence my own desire to want to be able to listen to it at 1.5x or faster.

Aren't "we" Mr. Grumpy pants, today.

Fuck shitcoins and fuck your inferences to bitcoin dominance nonsense.


hahahahahahaha

That was meant to be speaking for yours truly and for nobody else... and regarding my earlier reference to "we," I did not mean to speak on behalf of the whole of the WO thread peeps (peeps can speak up for their lil selfies), even though surely I did say "why do 'we' need that" mumbo jumbo?... so yeah there was a implication that I was "asking" based on the group rather really proclaiming what the group wants, to the extent that "we" in these here parts even agree upon thingies like that.

Sure you can keep presenting those bitcoin dominance kinds of nonsense ideas (it's a free world the last time I checked from within my fantasylandia), and maybe down the road you will start to proclaim that the tail wags the dog too.  Not everyone can be saved.    

 

Pouring one out for Gachapin.. .




He's too busy for you.


Yep.. I can feel it.

It feels sssssssoooooo fake.

 

It is not completely unpredictable. It has mostly been going up since 2010 (when it first got a price), and yeah there have been periods of down, but you will must consider that the trajectory has mostly been up, which justifies considering getting some in case it catches on, and then once you get some just continue to buy it... . there is no reason to believe that it has stopped in its overall trajectory to go up, even if there are likely going to continue to be various corrections (and volatility) along the way.

It does not work like that.  We don't go from bear to bull to bear to bull...   That is too confusing, so maybe you should start to consider longer time frames in order to attempt to better understand trends and/or what is actually happening.

If you had not noticed and/or realized, we have largely been in a bull market since November 2022 - however, we might not have know that we were in a bull market until either mid 2023 when the BTC price had gotten convincingly above the 200-WMA or perhaps it was not clear until a little bit later, such as October.

So yeah, we have had various corrections along the way, including our current correction that brought us down to $56,500 (so far), which is about a 23.5% correction from the $73,794 top and currently it seems that we are rebounding from the correction.


Yes, of course, we could have further correction, but I would not count upon it.  It is better to prepare for either direction and also likely better to presume that we are in a bull market, even if we still might be in the midst of a correction that may or may not continue.

Another possibility is that BTC prices will never again return below $60k, so you had your last chance to buy sub $60k BTC.  I am not going to proclaim with any kind of confidence, yet it seems problematic to either be presuming more down to be coming and/or failure refusal to prepare for UP.

Back to the question of my last post, it seems to me that you probably have not outperformed a DCA strategy in your own situation... so I don't know why you are still advocating that fucking around with trading is actually a good idea.

You could be quite well off in a BTC stash right now, even if you had been stacking modestly over the last 11 years, but instead you are still fucking around with trading, advocating trading and likely having fun staying poor.


Bitcoin is likely the best asset known to man, and you want to fuck around with trying to trade it rather than accumulating it?  That is not going to get you anywhere in life.. sure you might be able to make some dollars here and there, but it is not really going to give you the power of accumulating and holding bitcoin.  But hey whatever, do what you like... hopefully no one is dumb enough to follow your advice.


I did not say that.  I said that no man's land is between around $55k and $82k, which means it is about 20% on each side of the previous ATH (which was $69k in November 2021), so since late February we have been passing through no man's land, which largely has additional upward price pressures, besides the fact that we are in a bull market which also gives upward price pressures, so there is a combination of the upward price pressures of being in a bull market and also the upward price pressures of being in no man's land... so yeah, none of those upward price pressures are guaranteed to result in upward price movements, there is just a tendency for up with some additional bonuses that add to such upward price pressures.

As far as this year, it could well be the case that we get between $120k and $180k in order to account for the additional price pressures of the various spot ETFs, and then there could be some bouncing around in that range to see how well the buying support has been able to keep up with BTC price and if there might be an additional up from there in 2025 to result in a higher high that plays out in 2025 as compared to whatever high ends up playing out for 2024... but yeah, we do not yet know, but having a target of $82k to $83k for 2024 seems quite bearish and is barely on the top of no man's land.. so frequently we will pass above no man's land, but at the same time the fact that we have been quite sticky passing through this particular no man's land could contribute towards giving enough fuel to shoot above $100k and to take us into the $120k to $180k range, as I mentioned above.


Again.. dumb.  You sound retarded and you sound as if you are taking for granted a correction down to $50k-ish which is far from even being high probability, and it may well be less than 45% odds that we ever reach such prices, whether you are talking about summer of 2024 or otherwise.


Ok.  we should be crashing any minute then.. since we are already here.

Hopefully no one is trying to play these kinds of short term price movements, except perhaps just engaging in mostly ongoing BTC accumulation unless maybe you have already overly accumulated then you would have more luxuries to sell some, even though I have my doubts about whether selling much of anything around these prices would be reasonable, even from a long term holder, but sure there could be guys who just shave off a bit here and there for bills and no problem with that.. I suppose.


You keep repeating $50k, yet I doubt that your repetition of the idea makes it more likely to happen... but yeah of course you are free to believe whatever you like.


Those ideas of needing to dump before we are able to go up are dumb and frequently wrong... but yeah sometimes dumps do end up happening, like we did get a dump to $56,500, so hopefully, that will make the dumpers happy, even though maybe many of them are still waiting for $50k that may well not end up happening.

So yeah, even those waiting for dumps will have tendencies to NOT be happy with the amount of dump, so hopefully, anyone who sold waiting to buy lower had already bought back and those who did not sell and were waiting for a dump, hopefully they were not too greedy and they were able to buy on the dip... since we may or may not be getting any further dip from here.

Even the report is corrected to put the month and the day as two digits each, it seems that the total number of pushups for Proty should not be two digits, so I am not sure if Dirty Keyboard's script is going to read that two digit "03" correctly when it should have been written as just a one digit "3."

You are talking like a trader rather than an investor.

You are talking like you are looking to get more dollars in the short term.

Technically you are correct that you hold in order to be able to sell at a higher price, so you want your holdings to be in profits, but you also likely can appreciate the power that come from having options, so you may well not need to sell much if any of your BTC in order to still get the advantages of having had built up your BTC stack size.


This part is true.


You still are talking as if you are just wanting to benefit in the short term in this particular bull run that you anticipate to be upcoming.... so then what are planning to do in the next 6-18 months?  Will you be selling on the way up?  assuming that we might be going up in the next 6-18 months.

I do understand that people like to think in absolutes, yet I am not sure if it is healthy.. .because to me, it seems possible to hold both values in your head at the same time, and so you would not give more than .001% preparations for the going to zero scenario.. or whatever might be the odds.. and yet my stick has frequently been to help to prepare members for a variety of scenarios, while surely at the same time being a pretty BIG pusher of the idea to make sure that you have enough bitcoin and that you are prepared for UP.

I remember going through the whole 8 months of 2015 in which a quite a few guys got dissuaded by their staying in bitcoin, and so there can be questions regarding how many more BTC to acquire, even if the price is so great in the mid-to-lower $200s for nearly the whole year, and sometimes there can be questions about buying more and/or whether more should be bought if it even goes lower or if there was already enough in the holdings.

Each of us have differing ways of dealing with those kinds of scenarios and surely new people may well have times in which their BTC holdings are in the negative for extended periods of time, and so there can be questions about whether to buy more and how much more to buy and whether to keep buying if the price keeps going lower, or to just hold through it... with a kind of hope that the price will recover back above your costs per BTC.


Sure we might keep buying, but if the price goes down and continues to go down, then maybe we run out of money, and maybe we just are able to DCA into bitcoin at that point, and we hope at some point it will recover, but there still can be points in which we might not want to keep putting more money into it... or maybe wait for a further dip before we put more into it... since surely if we have a stash of BTC and maybe they are in the negative, and then the price drops and we buy more and we keep doing that, at a certain point, we might need a certain additional amount of drop in order to feel justified in buying more.. and there could be some point that we give up in buying, and I am not saying selling.. because it is a bad practice to sell on the way down.. so we should be buying on the way down and selling on the way up.. and so even the amount that we sell on the way up might not be a lot, so there would be a fairly large bias towards accumulating and holding rather than selling, but we still should have some kinds of practices in place to prepare for possible extremes.. and yeah, so far the UPs have way outweighed the downs.. so it all ends up balancing out, yet it still could take a few years to get out of the negative and back into the positive, and that is not even a given, even though surely, in bitcoin the asymmetric bet to the upside still rules the day.


Personally, I tend to believe that the bullish case for bitcoin (and the strength of bitcoin's investment thesis) is so strong that a person should not be overly concerned about whether his BTC holdings are in profits or not for the first 4 years or more, and so there could be some folks who were fucking around with trading or making other mistakes with leveraging and/or lump sum buying at or near the top without additional plans to continue to buy using DCA and/or buying on the dips... so yeah, there could be folks who screwed up their ways of accumulating BTC, and there are people who figure out ways to lose money in bitcoin, even though bitcoin has been mostly UPward in terms of longer trend lines.

So yeah straight forward buying and even consistent buying lump sum buying and supplementing with DCA and/or buying on dips seem to be great practices, even if the price keeps going down, and so I truly agree with following those practices, and perhaps finding that it could still take 4-10 years just to start to get one's bitcoin holdings up to a level in which some kind of a modified approach might start to seem justifiable... so for sure, I don't disagree with your overall idea to just keep buying BTC no matter what the price including dips, while at the same time realizing that it is possible that the price might never recover, even though we have no current evidence why such a thing should happen and even though now we have a lot of evidence that bitcoin is one of the best if not the best investment ever available all across the planet... so people would be dumb not to have an allocation or even to be somewhat aggressive in their allocation to bitcoin, but they still need to understand and appreciate that there are no guarantees in life.. no guarantees that the BTC price will continue to go up. 

NO guarantees that bitcoin will not spiral downward for the next 5-10 years.. no guarantees that it will not go to zero.. and a lot of other variations in the ways that there are no guarantees in regards to bitcoin, its prices, its adoption, its network effects and other things that make bitcoin continue to seem amongst the best of current asymmetric bets that anyone could make.. and peeps need to get off zero and at least allocate somewhere in the 5% to 25% arena.. but yep.. no guarantees that they are going to be better off for doing those things..

By the way, your example of those who bought in 2021, there are likely some examples of those who bought at higher prices and then sat on their hands and did not buy more during the 2022 and 2023 dip, so they would be in a worse situation than if they had continued to buy from time to time throughout 2022 and 2023, and sure there might not be very many of those, so I would hate to focus on them as representative, and I also tend to be quite critical of folks who engage in lump sum investment practices who do not follow up with either DCA and/or buying on dips. but yeah, if they largely just bought and held through the whole dip period they would likely be at or close to profits now, yet earlier I was referring to a variety of folks who also might have only just gotten into bitcoin in the last couple of months, and some of them might currently not be in profits, even though surely, I would still consider that ongoing buying should be the solution to their entry point not working out as well for them in terms of not going directly to being in profits.


When it comes to bitcoin and anyone who might not have enough bitcoin, waiting is not a good strategy.

Waiting does not prepare you for up, and if you are preparing for down or sideways, you may well have to realize that down and/or sideways might not end up happening.

Sure if you have enough or more than enough BTC or you recently bought some and/or you are running out of cash, then maybe waiting might work as a temporary strategy.

Well you can look at the raw data and see that for today, we are currently on course to get to 97th or better, but yeah of course, we still have another 5 hours before the day closes... but I think that if we are able to stay above $61k for the remaining 5 hours, there are pretty good odds that we will at least get to 97th (and perhaps even higher on the table) for today, which means also another 2021 date is going to get knocked off the table.