I totally know what a "no" vote means, but just for those too embarrassed to ask, what would it mean? |
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Come on, bitcoin!  |
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Guys, I think this move above $260 (if held above that) might be triggering another move in Litecoin. It's gonna get really interesting when we punch through $270 (hopefully tonight/today, depending where you are at the moment).
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I'm just confident we'll have a new ATH by May or June of 2016. So I'm relaxed and optimistic when looking at they dying downtrend. I think it will not die in a whimper. But with a bang. We'll be seeing $320+ soon.
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$280, here we go!!  |
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I just did an estimate of the "Bitcoin National Debt" (BND), which is the minimum amount that the bitcoin system "owes" to the people who are holding bitcoins. It is between 483 million and 17.2 billion USD.
For example, someone who bought 10 BTC a year ago must have paid close to 600 $/Ƀ, the market price at that time. Therefore, he must be expecting to get at least 6600 $ if he were to sell or spend those bitcoins -- the 6000 $ that he invested, plus 10%/year of return. By doing that math for every bitcoin and adding the results we would get the BND.
Unfortunately, there is no way of knowing when any given lump of bitcoin was bought by its current owner. The purchase may not even have been recorded in the blockchain (e.g. if it was bought in an exchange and left there). We can only assume that the last purchase of a bitcoin that was mined on day X will (almost) surely have occurred on date X or after that. Therefore, by looking at the minimum and maximum price in that interval, we can get uper and lower bounds to the expectations of its owner.
For example, the 25 bitcoins that were mined on 2014-04-01 (when the price was ~450) may have been bought by their present owner(s) on 2014-06-01 (when the price was at its highest, ~680) or on 2015-01-14 (when the price was at its lowest, ~150). So, the current owners of those bitcoins, even if they are happy with a 10%/year return on investment, now expect to get from them between 25 × 150 $ and 25 × 680 $ plus the 10%/year.
I may post more details later if I get the time.
Too many variables to draw reliable conclusions concerning cause and effect, but could make for interesting data points in themselves. "National debt" is wrong, even with tongue firmly in cheek, a debt is a promise to repay... which bitcoin doesn't promise. The exchange rate volatility risk is foisted upon current owners and traders (not rights to future labor and income), and rightly so. Maybe "bagholder pain index" or BPI can be produced, at least partially, with this data. What happens to "bagholder pain index" when price exceeds $1200 ? Do we reach negative pain? Just like negative interest rates? It just looks like just a fancy way to compare what the miners/buyers would expect as return (in USD) for "investing" into bitcoin. Seems odd, is all I'm saying. Why not just declare a loss if one has been hodling between November 5th 2014 and now? I mean, if you bought/mined bitcoin between then and the first day of this year, your bitcoins are definitely worth less than what you bought/mined them at. So, this "debt" looks like a way to exaggerate the now-dying downtrend. |
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I think we are headed to $32,000 per bitcoin by 2021. We'll see. Maybe that guy holding 100 bitcoin will be a millionaire by 2020. Just like how someone that held BTC5,000 since 2010 (I believe someone from this very forum got a pizza for twice as much that same year) is a millionaire nowadays. That's why I dont believe the FUD trolls. Someone 5 years ago was perfectly comfortable exchanging 2 million dollar's worth of bitcoin (today's value) with a pizza. What will our bitcoins be worth 5 years from now? Extrapolating from that 5-year-change, $32,000 by 2020 is a reasonable goal.
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Dump3r expecting new ATH. Bullish.
Is there an example of this opinion? Sorry I didn't watch Dump3r carefully. Who elses moves can you predict future Bitcoin price? Nah, it was a joke. He said something like "we'll see lower lows before a new ATH", meaning that the first is more likely than the second. I mischaracterized it as sequential prediction. |
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Dump3r expecting new ATH. Bullish.
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We're going to stay above the log downtrend line, but we're not going too far away from it in a while. I give it a week, and no price below $240 for liftoff.
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We don't need people to lose faith in fiat. We need people to know about bitcoin, then trust bitcoin. That alone would be huge step. Bitcoin is not that well known, and quite a few that know of it dont know about it, or are sitting in the sidelines. I dont think that bitcoin will be in the eye of the mainstream (other than the occasional mention once in a while) and/or day-to-day public consciousness until after 2017.
Anyone that buys in before then is an early adopter.
PS: ZZZZZZZzzz
Z
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I already bought my bitcoin at $240 (well, technically, $265. Ugh, localbitcoin. I'll get confirmed somewhere soon). So I'm just sitting here, enjoying the uptrend, waiting for the proper time to buy something for myself with my BTC.
PS: back at $260, I'm going to sleep now. When I wake up, I want $290+. Come on, we can do it!
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Bitcoin is a deflationary currency by nature. It was unique in implementing this idea until the altcoins came to be. Satoshi's invention will be like the lighbulb, world changing, revolutionary, widely implemented and spreading into new markets years after the inventor's death. Anyways, I believe that bitcoin will follow a base uptrend indefinitely, be it lineal or logarithmic. I believe that there is a floor at $100. we will never again see double digit bitcoins (unless you scam someone out of their bitcoins). We are at the end of the beartrend since the ATH. We can see now-obvious bottom of $150. The price has only been moving upwards since last month (after the week of absolute boredom both bears and bulls suffered through). The next halving is coming, just one year and 6 months to go, we've all seen the speculative boom Litecoin went through. Litecoin's price tripled its price since may. At the moment, Litecoin is trying to break part the $4 mark. Bitcoin will go back above $300, it's only a matter of "when". At the moment, the best case scenario for bears (that is actually possible to happening). Is no movement upwards until 2016. By bitcoin's deflationary nature, and seeing Litecoin's undeniable revival (with a debatable lifespan after the halving), the most bearish scenario that I can think up (that has a realistic chance of happening) is a perpetual repeat of what we've seen since january 20th of this year (failure to rise above $300 and failure to crash below $200) until 2016, followed by a push up and beyond $1300 (peaking somewhere below $4000 sometime 2017) TLDR: This is the "best" the bears realistically can do:  |
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Did... did we just bounce off of the log downtrend? Cool. Now, if we can stay above $230 until July 12th, we're going to go into a fullblown bullmarket. Why the 12th? because that's when we (currently hugging the log downtrend line) intersect with what I like to call... "the little uptrend that could". |
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$1200 within 31 days? No, no... yes? No. Within two months, maybe... but I doubt it. I hope that I'm proved wrong by July 30th.  |
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Yeah, I don't trade, but it sure is fun to watch the relative size of my wallet go up...
Making decisions on the fly can be fun. And is often followed by the rewarding feeling of triumph. But it can just as easily be followed by the sour taste of failure. So far, most of my trading is 50-50, though I dont do it often. |
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$260+ holding up quite nicely. I think we'll see the price move upwards to past $320 in the next two or three weeks.
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I see the moon baby  And the moon baby sees us.  Now, if you look to your right, you'll see the moon baby.
Our pilots changed the course just so that we could get
a glimpse at him before we land on the moon. |
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