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2801  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2021, 01:15:46 AM
A plausible scenario? Check both values and timing.

https://dailyhodl.com/2021/01/09/macro-guru-raoul-pal-says-coinbase-ipo-will-suck-institutional-liquidity-from-bitcoin/

roughly ~100K local peak in Feb or so, back to about 40-45K in the summer, up above 200K in the late fall.

BAKKT is being SPACed as well at $2bil (not that much).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-08/crypto-exchange-bakkt-said-near-merger-with-victory-park-spac

Honestly, I am surprised that Coinbase wants to IPO instead of choosing the SPAC move.
They could have gotten some cash (a bil or more) without much dilution.



I think coinbase IPO will be less interesting for people/institutions that want to actually own bitcoin, or invest in it with bigger timeframes in mind.
This way, they (CB) mainly just maximise profits, at an amount of risk that even bitcoin doesn't inherently carry.
When bitcoin goes down, coinbase is history.
When coinbase goes down, king daddy doesn't give a fuck  Cool

Plot Twist:

After Coinbase IPOs, they announce that they are going to put millions extra $$$ into Bitcoin as their treasury.  Stock goes to the mewn. Bitcoin goes higher as well.

That, or if they say that you can get some coinbase IPO shares if you buy bitcoin on the platform by a certain date.
AirBNB rewarded early hosts with some IPO shares, same for UBER and drivers.
2802  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2021, 12:54:08 AM
A plausible scenario? Check both values and timing.

https://dailyhodl.com/2021/01/09/macro-guru-raoul-pal-says-coinbase-ipo-will-suck-institutional-liquidity-from-bitcoin/

roughly ~100K local peak in Feb or so, back to about 40-45K in the summer, up above 200K in the late fall.

BAKKT is being SPACed as well at $2bil (not that much).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-08/crypto-exchange-bakkt-said-near-merger-with-victory-park-spac

Honestly, I am surprised that Coinbase wants to IPO instead of choosing the SPAC move.
They could have gotten some cash (a bil or more) without much dilution.



I think coinbase IPO will be less interesting for people/institutions that want to actually own bitcoin , or invest in it with bigger timeframes in mind.
This way, they (CB) mainly just maximise profits, at an amount of risk that even bitcoin doesn't inherently carry.
When bitcoin goes down, coinbase is history.
When coinbase goes down, king daddy doesn't give a fuck  Cool

Well, that's the exact opposite of what he is saying, but it remains to be seen.
His point is that for fiat holders it is easier to invest in a company vs bitcoin itself. MSTR is just a very small vessel in market cap, but Coinbase would be a bigger one.
Think of this a a flow of funds. If some funds flow would be converted/re-directed to CB in lieu of bitcoin, bitcoin price might temporarily stagnate or even decline somewhat.
That's the gist of his argument, but he could be wrong, of course.
2803  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2021, 12:02:21 AM
A plausible scenario? Check both values and timing.

https://dailyhodl.com/2021/01/09/macro-guru-raoul-pal-says-coinbase-ipo-will-suck-institutional-liquidity-from-bitcoin/

roughly ~100K local peak in Feb or so, back to about 40-45K in the summer, up above 200K in the late fall.

BAKKT is being SPACed as well at $2bil (not that much).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-08/crypto-exchange-bakkt-said-near-merger-with-victory-park-spac

Honestly, I am surprised that Coinbase wants to IPO instead of choosing the SPAC move.
They could have gotten some cash (a bil or more) without much dilution.

2804  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2021, 09:35:32 PM
True observers, how many "martians" can you spot in this pic?



EDIT: But this was the one i was trying to find (finally got lucky after posting the 1st one).
It's a very quiet place, on a small hill in the middle of a wood. I found it on google maps originally and decided to check it out on a hike.
There also were horses. I had to wait quite a time until they had moved their hairy asses out of the viewport.


if a kid on a "moving platform" and a walking person qualify (since the whole scene looks "martian" or rather "frozen"), then 4 and if not, than just 2 (resembling martian tripods).
Maybe i missed more. A cool pic, as always.
2805  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2021, 08:46:36 PM
I wouldn't move a finger for just 18%..for 30%, I would.
2806  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2021, 07:47:01 PM
A few thoughts about the current bitcoin price:

1. With the price at about $40K, bitcoin has to go to $8mil/btc (~160 tril market cap) to replicate the move from roughly $200 in 2015 to about 40K now. This might still happen, but it would probably take several decades and could only happen if at least half of current world wealth would be denominated in bitcoin. M. Saylor has a 15 mil target, which is basically 100% replacement-upper bound.

2. From these numbers it becomes clear that coming right now with a small investment would not mean that you would become super wealthy, or at least not anytime soon, and you need to understand this situation.

3. Having said that, buying about a quarter of btc now ($10k) makes perfect sense as it is more than 89 earthlings combined could have (on average). Invest about $11K and you are in 1% as far as btc is concerned. The $ number would obviously go up in the future. In fiat ($$), you have to have about $5mil to breach the 1% (in US) in wealth, with about $11mil being the median.

4. We are currently observing fiat wealth (hedge funds, family offices, some companies) being thrown into bitcoin, so there is an intense competition to buy. Very wealthy do not need large % gain since they already have wealth and want simply to amplify it.

4. Conclusion: maybe a bit late to make insane gains for a smaller individual investor, but investing as little as $11K in btc at this moment might EVENTUALLY bring you or your family to top 1% in wealth, albeit it would most likely take some time (in my estimation, decades).
2807  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2021, 06:43:46 PM


That's a good summary, but current situation does not fit any of 4.
Basically, today a very strange concoction is highly up: "privacy" coins and strange shitcoins like ETC, obscure bitcoin forks.
Not sure that it means much.
2808  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2021, 05:49:01 PM


What is the "black round thingie" that sends radiowaves, then?
Who (or what) controls Musk?
EDIT: I can easily see Musk says to someone to fire a couple of millions, though (to control the overheating economy).
2809  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2021, 05:24:59 PM
All these 'pantie pics' inform as to why there are so many boomers.
I think that 50ies had a "thing" with panties, titties and naked legs, I suppose.
2810  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2021, 12:14:52 AM
41...maybe a new meaning of 42 (from the Hitchhiker's guide)?
2811  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2021, 12:05:23 AM
We seem to be having problems staying over 40K.
Is this just a natural correction and Resistance or should we be worried

if you are worried by 41K to 39.5K move in bitcoin, than you could be the next mindrust (see the midrust legendary story).

Can you provide a link to the story. I read here only small parts what happens. Would be nice know all. Thank you.


Around there :  started a bit before and continues after...   

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg54020506#msg54020506

Thank you. So I will put some popcorn into the microwave and start to read 😁

Interesting...WO travails become a story/lore for future bitcoinologists to study.
2812  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 08, 2021, 10:08:58 PM
We seem to be having problems staying over 40K.
Is this just a natural correction and Resistance or should we be worried

if you are worried by 41K to 39.5K move in bitcoin, than you could be the next mindrust (see the midrust legendary story).
2813  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 08, 2021, 10:01:56 PM
I think that vibing cat+levan pollka+Bilal+dancing chick+a dude on a mini keyboard beat the "bullish screecher".
 Grin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAyWN9ba9J8
2814  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 08, 2021, 08:00:42 PM
That is weird: Bitcoin is a lot more stable than Gold in terms of knowing exactly what is up: You can't fake it and there is no mine of gold out there, only 6.25 coins every 10 minutes.

Interestingly, Bitcoin can only be mined on Earth. Gold can be mined from ... a lot of different planets, any other solar system, any other galaxy.

Because of the way Bitcoin is set up with 10 minute average blocks, miners are limited to about 1 minute away from the "center of hash", which happens to be Earth. You can have miners on the moon or in orbit, like some international space station, but you can't have miners more than 1 million kilometers away as that's too far and introduces latency.

It's possible for other planets to use Bitcoin, but they can't mine it, only broadcast their transactions and wait for confirmation. Mars is already too far away, as in terms of Bitcoin, it is more than a block away. It's like 15 minutes to 45 minutes away at the speed of light.

I like it. Each planet gets their own bitcoin which captures the entire productive value of that planet. Exchange rates vary by productive output and are kept in check by interplanetary arbitrage.

<gif removed for brevity>

TNG was talking about gold-pressed latinum  Cheesy, which is rare for an unknown reason (perhaps, because it cannot be replicated, unlike gold).
It might be a good idea to get some, in case it takes off...lol.
2815  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 08, 2021, 07:34:58 PM
That is weird: Bitcoin is a lot more stable than Gold in terms of knowing exactly what is up: You can't fake it and there is no mine of gold out there, only 6.25 coins every 10 minutes.

Interestingly, Bitcoin can only be mined on Earth. Gold can be mined from ... a lot of different planets, any other solar system, any other galaxy.

Because of the way Bitcoin is set up with 10 minute average blocks, miners are limited to about 1 minute away from the "center of hash", which happens to be Earth. You can have miners on the moon or in orbit, like some international space station, but you can't have miners more than 1 million kilometers away as that's too far and introduces latency.

It's possible for other planets to use Bitcoin, but they can't mine it, only broadcast their transactions and wait for confirmation. Mars is already too far away, as in terms of Bitcoin, it is more than a block away. It's like 15 minutes to 45 minutes away at the speed of light.

I agree, but the number is off a little.
right now more like 8.13 min (487.6 sec) for 90.829 mil miles (146.175 mil km)
At the minimal distance (54.6 mil km) just above 3 min with maximum at 401 mil km (22.29 min).

We will need to learn how to entangle the martian node(s)... Grin
2816  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 08, 2021, 06:06:48 AM
Why are we talking politics again?
Maybe because btc did not move much in any direction for the last 12 hr...

How about some pictures of your future RE or just nice vistas to spend quality vacation time?
I promised to myself that if I survive covid (with or without a vaccine), I would do some traveling this year, regardless of btc price.
2817  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2021, 11:59:53 PM
Could this bull run terminate earlier than *expected?  Huh
*expected: late in this year or Q1/2022

think double-hump instead of "early".
2818  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2021, 08:01:19 PM
These Bitcoin swings go almost as fast as COVID-induced fever/diarrhea cycles.

I speak from experience (12 toilet paper rolls down... in 3 days).

That explains earlier widespread shortage of toilet paper...market knows.
2819  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2021, 07:15:35 PM
Realistically the question is how far can it go.

Ie how much wealth can transfer to it.  Easily  1 trillion can shift to btc in the next 15 days.   $711,835,120,885 is what it reads this morning on coinmarketcap.

It could go to $1,711,835,120,885 by the time Biden is sworn in. (if he is sworn in). 


I live in the USA.  I am happy I have coin in case I need to leave the USA.

Lots of players are thinking fuck what happens if the USA shit is not over.  I got money that could be frozen.  I know I will get some BTC just in case.

To think that 1 trillion could come in to btc by Jan 20-22 is not crazy.



1 tril actual shift would not result in a 1.7tril market cap.
The price move is ALWAYS a multiple of money moved (by a factor of 10X, typically).
As far as $1.7 tril market cap (that would be just below 100K), it is well within my expected range for the first hump in two-hump scenario that woonomic now favors as well.
Solid money management, albeit, if money can be frozen, then what good would that selling do?
In any case-respect for a conservative money management.
That said, it would be interesting to see if truly big funds (Dalio, Blackrock, etc. ) are actually buying here en masse. We would never know, of course.
My take is the whole system (outside of bitcoin) has become unstable for a moment. Let's see if it would right itself up. I hope that it would.
2820  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2021, 05:24:06 AM

I have BCH/BSV from forks and Siacoin and Lisk I'm planning on dumping ASAP..but would kinda like BTC to 'plateau' some to catch up don't ya know...

but I do have an amount of BTC via altcoins and such equiv to about 7 BTC or so...I can sell..in that is what I recovered from my 13 BTC sale of 12/24/18

at xmas low for real life issues on that date in 2018. I did get back these 7 BTC out of the 13 BTC or so. So 'ideally' I would be no worse off than I had

in the BTC HODL/Hoard at that date...so likely dibble out the altcoins and 3.8 BTC of above to get back to my 12/24/18 number I sold at $3,900 for real

life issues. This dribble out for real life issues looks to be 'much more' pleasent don't ya know Smiley Nice bit of profit along the way for 2 years and about 1.5 months. Smiley

Brad



I am totally not into forks, but at least one of them might pop, so good timing might be important.
That said, don't listen to me as i waited until 1.1K to sell some of the "forked" stuff instead of doing it at 3-4K.
Who cares now, though.
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