if your methods and ideas were legit and not scam then there would have been no reason for the secrecy that you are using wanting to do things privately in PMs.
if you have nothing to hide then share it publicly in a topic!

both your choice of title and the board you posted this in are wrong.

this is purely talking about the price and nothing else! it has nothing to do with bitcoin being broken or not. and it consists of speculation of a known bullish person in bitcoin. although i agree with most of what he said regarding price and the bottoms but i still think his expectations are somewhat unrealistic because of the short time frames that he has said so far.

why not? who decides how much rise is fake and how much is not? and why does he not decide that rising 6.6x (current price) is also a manipulation? you say 20 times is manipulation, i say 2 times is manipulation if we are throwing random numbers.
i am with mjglqw on this. and also i'd say the 70% drop is manipulation. you see it works both ways.

as for your 40% comment, that has never been proven. people love to look at some bitcoin addresses that have large balances and then start theory crafting. the bitcoin market is small and is affected by manipulation but things aren't that bad as you think they are.

yeah but that would only be the extreme case of a country that has actually banned bitcoin like Bangladesh. the rest of the world have not done such a thing and stores are free to accept bitcoin as payment.

what i said about "what government says" was about when they are stuck arguing whether they should call bitcoin a security or a commodity or ... or approve ETF or reject it or...

stability in bitcoin doesn't exactly mean the same thing as it does in other assets. bitcoin is a new form of currency that is being adopted and on top of that it has a small market.

so in a sense $14 could have been a stable phase in bitcoin and posting this screenshot from the old days out of context does not prove anything.
or like now it can be considered a stable phase when we enter $6xxx levels and stay there for a while with a volume indicating accumulation.

yeah as long as you trust that block explorer to be correct and without bugs.
and if we start talking about possibilities then there are lots of them. for example you should technically be able to use BIP37 or bloom filters to get what you need from the nodes in a decentralized way. or figure out how Electrum nodes communicate and just send a request to one of them asking for your transaction history!

both of these things you mentioned here are highly unlikely to happen on a large scale. they both happen on a much smaller scale. like some countries legalizing bitcoin, some others incapable of making their mind and on rare occasions banning it.
and none of them are "best scenario for bitcoin"! that actually would be if people realized how to use bitcoin as what it meant to be used for meaning a decentralized currency and stop caring what the government says.

yes it is a bit optimistic but for good reasons (in my opinion at least).
usually these drops like this are  caused by weaker hands. also as everyone sells now they come into money. that money doesn't just go away. most of them sold in order to wait for a certain lower price level to buy back and that lower level is the previous bottom $6k for majority of them. so we may not see a "bloodbath" to begin with and this time the bounce back can be stronger because there wouldn't be any threat of ETF rejection on the way.

the important keyword here is "a little". and it is sad but unfortunately it seems like nothing can secure these exchanges and unless they give us some sort of assurance like having assets legally registered to pay their customers in case of a hack or something, there will never be safety in any of them.

all these ups and downs for the past month or so has been because of ETF. the rise was building up nicely with a slow pace when the ETF drama started and we suddenly saw a surge. then they denied Winkle brothers ETF and we had a drop then they postponed their decision for another ETF and we had another drop.
all everyone is talking about these days is ETF. some even talk about it as if bitcoin would die without it!!!

when all that goes away we will have a much calmer market. it will still be bitcoin and volatile but at least the drama would be lifted.

nothing new!

they will continue being pump and dump side market which is used by bitcoiners to fill their wallets with more bitcoin as they profit. and the same two groups will exist: the pumpers manipulating and making profit with those who join the pumps. and the newbies who lose money because they don't want to accept that pump and dump exists among altcoins...

the funny (or maybe sad) part is that the 2014 crash and 2018 crash had nothing in common. the 2014 one was because of a fake pump and a fake bubble followed by a bubble burst AND the biggest exchange scam of history, while the 2017 rise was a lot more natural although it ended up with a bubble.

but i think people compared them enough times in their heads that they ended up believing in it and then shaped the market based on that belief. specially when price was pushed below $10k the panic buttons were pushed right after...

you don't need to sync a full node to spend unless you are too far behind and don't have the transaction output that you want to spend.
for example if total blocks are 60000 and you have until 50000 as long as the UTXO you want to spend is from anywhere below 50000 and you have not spent it before you can still make a transaction and broadcast it easily.

yeah the list of those who spoke some nonsense against bitcoin grew by 1 and the total count is still in 1000+ while bitcoin still grows and is being adopted all around the world by real economists and people alike.

yeah keep telling yourself  that while the altcoin pumpers who promised you profit are dumping on you and getting the hell out

well the effect is what you just saw and mentioned here! a drop in bitcoin price about 7-8% followed by the altcoin massacre where they each dropped at least 10% and some even up to 20% drops.

it is hard to say what is going to happen when they actually reject ETF in  about a month from now because we have already had the drops and also from what i can see the market expects the rejection despite all the hype so everyone is waiting for that date to come so that they can start buying so we may not even see a big drop.

yeah i know that, but what i am expecting from someone who starts things off with "it was obvious" to at least have a satisfactory explanation of why he is prediction what he is posting in a speculation board.
right now it is just a guess, even if it comes true it still is a shot in the dark! unless he has some valid reason that he is not sharing with us

 this part is generally wrong because of two things: you are planning on hoping for profit instead of knowing whether it is possible or not through an analysis and logic. and also your investment amount is important.

of course it is impossible for me to say unless i know you first. you may be a 14 year old kid and "as much money as i have" can mean your lunch money. in which case go for it. that is the best investment you can make. worse case scenario you don't really lose anything but have a nice chance of making a lot. and that can help you in your future.
or you may be 40 year old dude with wife and kids in which case "as much money as i have" can mean your whole life savings which is a terrible idea. worse case scenario is that your life is ruined.

i don't even think they are going to approve ETF. they will continue to play with us by pushing it back and back as much as they can and then finally reject it (like last year and other times). and since lots of newbies are just sitting there waiting for this particular news, the rise will be postponed for at least 1 month.

and why is that?
i am not saying you are right or wrong but i fail to understand the reason behind these two statements.
the evidence that we had so far are these:
- price fell down hard 3 times this year and each time it went to $6k couldn't break it and bounced back.
- this recent movement was from $6k to $8k and then back to $6.5k

do you have any other evidence/fact that i don't know about? and based on these how do you predict $4-5k as bottom?

we are not stuck and everything is going on fine. the only thing that is not fine is the price and you see the price and then make all your conclusions based on that instead of based on bitcoin and how that is working.

for example you mentioned Lightning Network. have you even tried it out? it is a decentralized network that you and i should join if we want it to be used and grow more. at least give it a try and see how it works. it is not magic and i won't just bring in adoption over night but it is great enough to increase the adoption.
and this adoption is not going to happen in a short couple of days. it will take time. and for now we are stuck in this price level so i can understand it being hard to see what i mean.