Ponzi is by definition a crime. telling people to hold is no crime. that is far fetched...
well, when you think about it...until the last coin is mined, btc needs constant inflow of cash to remain stable. or people holding. More crazy talk... to try to attempt to justify non-sense.. and probably I should NOT bite.. but o.k.... a nibble.. ok.. . I think that there is a built in expectation with bitcoin that as time passes, more and more people will be using bitcoin and more and more developments will create demands for bitcoin... .. in that sense demand for bitcoin is likely to far outpace the increased supply. Otherwise if bitcoin were to stay stagnant in its number of users.. then it would NOT increase in value or price... I would NOT call that something that bitcoin "needs." B/c bitcoin could give a fuck about whether it is $2 per BTC or $2 million per BTC.. so yes, if it is only being used among 1,000 "criminals" in the underground, then who knows, the price may be a bit lower than if it expands into widespread adoptions. exactly what I said. new money means price will go up. no new investors or money - price going down. holders not holding - > crash. Maybe we do NOT really disagree, then? I would NOT really characterize the situation as a "crash," though, and I tend to think that number of people coming in continues to be larger than the number exiting... sure those kind of numbers are going to fluctuate from week to week, but overall, bitcoin is probably continuing to expand its user base far beyond supply of bitcoin... possibly, we could get some dropping of price over the next several months into the lower three hundreds... but I would hardly dramatize that into a crash, even if it were to happen.. which I am having my doubts about that, too... seems that we are likely going to be going up soon... but maybe this stagnation and even some additional decline will last a few more months.. a couple of scenarios.. that will likely cause me to continue to HODL and BUY... and NOT inclined to SELL at these prices, unless I replace soon thereafter. |
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Good price! I am pretty sure that it will go only up right from now :-) I think this is bottom, ground value for Bitcoin next week will be a stagnation week and then up slow till summer and then catapulting in July Maybe you are correct? Maybe stable through the weekend..? though sometimes it is hypothesized that BTC prices go up a little on Thursdays and then down on Saturdays and then up on Sundays.. but maybe we will NOT get any kind of meaningful price movement until after 4/15 comes and goes? Maybe I will buy a few more BTC in the next few days.. though it may be o.k. to wait until Saturday.. but that may only amount to a $5 to $10 per BTC discount at most (and such a discount is NOT set in stone either)... which even if there is a $5-$10 discount in the whole scheme of things, is NOT a big price difference.. 1-2% I am inclined to buy a few more in order to up my holdings a little bit and to bring down my average price per BTC a little bit.. but of course I would like to buy at the lowest reasonably foreseeable price, if possible.  |
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Ponzi is by definition a crime. telling people to hold is no crime. that is far fetched...
well, when you think about it...until the last coin is mined, btc needs constant inflow of cash to remain stable. or people holding. More crazy talk... to try to attempt to justify non-sense.. and probably I should NOT bite.. but o.k.... a nibble.. ok.. . I think that there is a built in expectation with bitcoin that as time passes, more and more people will be using bitcoin and more and more developments will create demands for bitcoin... .. in that sense demand for bitcoin is likely to far outpace the increased supply. Otherwise if bitcoin were to stay stagnant in its number of users.. then it would NOT increase in value or price... I would NOT call that something that bitcoin "needs." B/c bitcoin could give a fuck about whether it is $2 per BTC or $2 million per BTC.. so yes, if it is only being used among 1,000 "criminals" in the underground, then who knows, the price may be a bit lower than if it expands into widespread adoptions. |
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Ponzi is by definition a crime. telling people to hold is no crime. that is far fetched...
Yeah... I probably should NOT allow myself to get drawn into discussion regarding such silly assertions... we hear them so much about bitcoin being a ponzi scheme.. and surely people in this thread would NOT be easily be mislead about such exaggerations regarding what is going on around bitcoin.... even though we see these kinds of misleading assertions frequently in the mainstream press. I am sure tht various false assertions remain confusing for regular people who are NOT very familiar with bitcoin or get distracted by some of these kinds of goose chasing misinformation campaigns. |
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No one is buying and no one is selling.
while the price is dropping on average of $7-8 per day. The scales are tipped only one way imho.
Dropping $7-8 per day since when? Are selectively picking a start date for this hypothetical and arbitrarily picked price drop? sorry my mistake, it's $5-6 per day.
sorry my mistake, it's $5-6 per day.
I think you missed the point entirely Jonoiv: missed the point on purpose....... it seems... that is called avoiding the question... The question is important, so i will repeat it, which I have asked you this same question before, and you also avoided it b/c to answer the question gets you the wrong results... it gets you to a spin place where you do NOT want to go.. and that is REALITY... the real world. Can you please explain in more detail your theory about the price drop and the time period for such a supposed price drop trajectory that NOT only describes price history but such price drop is also supposed to have some kind of predictive value regarding the direction of bitcoin prices.. Explain it to us in plain English and in detail, por favor!!! Lay it on us. We are all ears. We are all eyes.. go ahead, make our day. Enlighten us. |
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Im not calling bitcoin itself a ponzi, but this mentality where you have to convince other speculators to "hold" resembles that of a ponzi. if its really that strong fundamentally, then there should be an elastic support so that sellers cannot drop the price that much until eventually all coins are bought by new buyers. you shouldn't be fearing that if 1% of an asset is sold, it will collapse. let's say you're trading GOOG - you don't give a crap about what other traders are doing and you know it doesn't matter.
I don't want to be accusing you of anything, but you seem much smarter than that, in terms of understanding what is going on with the market and with bitcoin and what is or is NOT a ponzi scheme. Sure Posters yell out hodl hodl hodl and buy buy buy.. etc.. b/c they are bullish and that is their general strategy to build up their bitcoin reserves. And, sure there may be some that are trying to convince others for the "good" of bitcoin; however, i think that a large majority are just shouting out hodl hodl hodl and buy buy buy out of courtesy... or out of what's in the self-interest of the investors. Yes, the more places there are to liquidate my bitcoin with ease, the more likely I will be to spend my bitcoin.. spend and replace.. but these days, there still tends to be some hassles in liquidation channels.. we are still in the early stages.... so the fact that a lot of the liquidation of bitcoin is taking place through trading and through exchanges, is more a product of the relative infancy stages of bitcoin rather than some kind of alleged fact that bitcoin is a ponzi scheme... as the years go on and more development and ease of use is going to help to make bitcoin much more practical with day to day transactions with more and more merchants.. we already see that, but ease of use is NOT very developed... .. yet NONE of that causes bitcoin or the behavior around bitcoin to be as ponzi scheme-ish as you seem to be attempting to force it into that kind of definition.. for some ulterior motive... who knows? Just b/c a lot of posters here are cheering for bitcoin and what bitcoin to succeed.. for a variety of reasons.. including.. to get rich (or richer) on speculation, also does not mean that their behavior is ponzi scheme-ish... Bitcoin has a pretty good chance in succeeding in a large number of ways.. and it is seems a lot of those success scenarios also translates in fairly high likelihood that demand for BTC and price will increase, as well. |
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No one is buying and no one is selling.
while the price is dropping on average of $7-8 per day. The scales are tipped only one way imho.
Dropping $7-8 per day since when? Are selectively picking a start date for this hypothetical and arbitrarily picked price drop? |
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Also, a price supported by entirely by holding and not by buyers is very weak - it is unusable by merchants due to the lack of liquidity. It is in effect a ponzi scheme.
You should be ashamed of yourself for being involved. What would your mother think? Go away. I have a history of trading ponzi schemes actually, and then getting out just in time before they collapse. It all started when I was 18 years old and I partipated in a ponzi called "12 daily pro", turning $5,000 into $15,000 in a few weeks. Of course the members insisted that it was not a ponzi at the time. It was.. "the future of advertising and multi level marketing" bla bla. YOUR bare assertion that bitcoin is a ponzi scheme will NOT win the day. And, the mere fact that you may have some experience with Ponzi schemes does NOT mean that you have correctly identified bitcoin properly as a supposed Ponzi scheme. With any kind of investment, there is a certain level of reliance on future investors to keep up the price point.. but bitcoin has a lot of tangibles.. A ponzi scheme is different b/c it offers nothing in return and is a scam.. You really should KNOW better than making those kinds of vacuous accusations towards bitcoin without any real solid argument... By employing the term "Ponzi" you are engaging in a disinformation campaign.. b/c it seems that you know better. |
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December 2013 - oh shit!!!!! china bans bitcoin January 2014 - you know what ? bitcoin is going to banned in china at the end of January February 2014 - NEWS FLASH - china bans bitcoin March 2014 - guess what china is banning? April 2014 - fill in the blank---- China is going to ban [______] come on, you can do it. guess. |
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the low volume highly volatility range trading may now begin.
What's new about that? |
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The miners decide what the rules are. Increasingly, that means ghash.io, discus fish, eligius, and btcguild. Biggest threat to bitcoin today.
Instead of the word "threat," you must really mean biggest "vulnerability"? If the miners were to be infiltrated, then could destroy bitcoin, and I suppose there could be some miner-related battles in the future and attempts to figure out what is "good for" bitcoin. I don't see any way to destroy Bitcoin that wouldn't hurt the destroyer even worse. It would take $20 billion to ensure it could be done and any failed attempt would make it more difficult to try again. You could really hurt it for much less, but not kill it and it would come back stronger. Even if you did kill it, another crypto would replace it almost immediately. You can't kill a protocol. The laws of economics are immune to legislative fiat. This is one of the best points that you have made in weeks!!!!!  Maybe you have snapped out of your quasi-delirium state? I'm just kidding.. .but I thank you for that point b/c I was thinking that there was something that I was missing.. and in the above post, you outlined the situation really well. I will take back any negative thought that I almost had that involved you.  |
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I will say though, that until we have good news, the previous trend is unlikely to get reversed. and the trend lines, I posted do accurately represent the past weeks. The chart would be the best guess for anyone studying the data if they didn't know anything about bitcoin and they had no other information to go on. Stick that data in an algorithmic computer prediction without any fundamental information, and it would come to a similar conclusion.
I do NOT know a whole lot about how to input this kind of information into algorithmic computer prediction, yet I understand the concept. Accordingly, I have little reason to doubt that if one put exactly the data from your previous chart into such a prediction tool, we would likely get similar results as you predicted... Maybe NOT as dramatic, but similar. On the other hand, I also understand the concept of prediction sufficiently to know that you are being very selective with your timeline, and we do NOT need to incorporate fundamentals data in order to achieve a much different picture. Surely, if we take nearly any starting point after early December 2013 until present, we are going to get a downward trendline. However, if we pick any trendline that starts from mid-November or at any point earlier, we are going to obtain much different results (and likely an upward trendline). In order to really appreciate the multitude of possibilities in the short-term, we need to also consider the long-term, too. If we take into consideration the long-term, then it is very likely that we get a WTF?  ?? result.. - meaning we would NOT be able to figure out with any certainty WTF is gonna happen with BTC prices. and difficulties in predicting what is going to happen one way or another in the short term.. but an inclination towards an upward trend in the long run.... ... and then if we add in various aspects of the fundamentals, we get a bitcoin price that currently seems to be very undervalued. You seem like a fairly bright guy that is likely engaging in a form of selectivity in your data, and probably I am wasting my time by engaging with you.... b/c you really are a bit outrageous in that latest predictions and a few of your other recent predictions that seem to be predicting a grand short-term downfall that is supposedly obvious. But because this is bitcoin, and it does have support, other factors do need to be considered. I take that point. So with that in mind, my personal opinion is bottoming out is far more likely than a reserve pattern forming without some fundamental positive factor.
Many bears will have a price in their head, and the further we go down the scale the more likely we are to reach that equilibrium.
A double bottom is a good scenario for the bulls, or a slow drop until we reach the equilibrium stage. but while we keep touching that trend line and the 15th of April is approaching, the average price is dropping at a rate of about $7 a day, relative capitulation, followed by stagnation with some stability might be not such a bad thing for bitcoin at the moment.
These are decent points... Again... depending on the timeline.. and even bears seem to agree if we get stuck at this mid-$400s price range for a considerable amount of time, it is much more likely to break upward rather than breaking downward.. absent further FUD or actual real negative news. |
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I hope this is the bottom. I hope a rally starts now and goes on forever. I would love to be wrong.
Well I'm not saying you're wrong... the price can stil drop lower. I just can't understand the words about exchange going dark. Was nowhere written nothing about that. And I really don't care much in which way we are going... Not selling my btc for at least a year, while I will be happy to trade with ltc and getting more of them  You can also double your coins hypothetically by selling before a plunge and buying back half price. If I had done that in 2011, 2012, or last year, I would be a multimillionaire now. you can also double your coins with 15 well timed %5 swings Or you could decrease your holdings, by either getting this one wrong or getting wrong more than half of the 15 "well-timed" swings... while losing hair in the process. |
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The miners decide what the rules are. Increasingly, that means ghash.io, discus fish, eligius, and btcguild. Biggest threat to bitcoin today.
Instead of the word "threat," you must really mean biggest "vulnerability"? If the miners were to be infiltrated, then could destroy bitcoin, and I suppose there could be some miner-related battles in the future and attempts to figure out what is "good for" bitcoin. |
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And any future prediction is just that a prediction, how else do you want me to represent a future prediction, without making it up? Seems strange you think I should make a potential prediction but base it on fact.... bit of an oxymoron.... You got me on that one. I will concede quasi-defeat on that particular point.. NOT only for your getting me on it, but very good in the humor department, as well. I am considering a come back, and I realize that I may have gone too far out on a limb in my earlier criticism. I will say, though, in my defense, that I have NO problem with the making of predictions, and such predictions become better when they have some foundation beyond a mere making of a wish. Your previous "prediction" just struck so much on the fantasy La La land, without any real grounding. For example, I predict that bitcoin will fall by 50% in the next 2 days because ... [example of something or news that is going to cause such]. I don't want to get too preachy when my point was fairly obvious.. but I did enjoy reading your come back..... but your comeback does NOT really affect your original problem, and only points at how I may have been a bit too dogmatic in my own criticism(s).
Also an Ass is not a body part it's a member of the horse family.. The word you're looking for is arse!
NOW you are really getting into trivial technicalities... .. We all know that when I mentioned "ass" in my previous post, I was talking about some "butt hole" or anus or rectum or whatever other common parlance for a body part and not an animal. Anyhow, a side-point, at best. |
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I'll join you. Leave some for me.  yeah, and the two of you can trade.. on your own little private island... that would be great for the value of bitcoin. |
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Greed may even destroy bitcoins most praised quality, its planned scarcity. I don't see what could prevent that.
That's why you need to study harder.  Fear and greed are the two faces of the same coin. These concepts of greed and cheating and even fear are going to continue to be big and ongoing tests for bitcoin... and whether bitcoin remains robust enough to withstand various cheating attempts (the Byzantine general issue)... I get the sense that the bigger challenges with bitcoin are going to be coming when transactions are allowed off of the block chain for extended periods of time. Sometimes, it will be much more effective and efficient to have some transactions taking place off of the blockchain, so long at there can be periodic updates with the blockchain.. to make sure that the transaction has taken place.. maybe synchronizing daily or even shorter periods, hourly?, so that it can be verified that no one is running off with my hard earned coins. |
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I don't know why, but it feels lately that we are in the calm before the storm. The variance has shrunk a lot in the past few weeks, and the high and lows are a very tight window. I can almost feel it in the air that it is going to start moving again very soon...
which way, though? |
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I think we have tested the top long enough. So i'm turning very bearish again.. I could be wrong. I frequently am, but here is my possible worst case scenario for the next 2 days or so..  I like the way you conditioned your prediction that you are frequently wrong... IN other words this prediction has NO basis in reality besides the fact that you started it from a real chart.. and it was pulled from a real ass (no hating on you personally - just referring to a body part). |
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Seems like that bill would be a positive development - to the extent that it seems to merely clarify the treatment of bitcoin as a foreign currency, rather than as property for the purposes of USA taxes. On the other hand, if there are some other secret surprise language contained in the legislation, then that may be a different story. |
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