Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday April 09

Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2808 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 456 USD.


Plot legend

This last data point was rather weak (S = 0.0055, W = 0.545) but, with the previous one, allows us to assume a straight line trend A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/07, A = 2782, B = 13.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.16 CNY/USD (it was 6.16, 6.15, 6.23 at the last three Slumber Times).
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-08, 01:55 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-08, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~17 hours later)

Another easy hit:

Huobi's predicted price: 2782 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2795 CNY
Error: 13 CNY (~2 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 452 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 454 USD
Error: 2 USD
 
NOTE: "A man with a new idea is a crank until he succeeds." --Mark Twain

[JayJuanGee]

No one is buying and no one is selling.

while the price is dropping on average of $7-8 per day.   The scales are tipped only one way imho.

Dropping $7-8 per day since when? 

Are selectively picking a start date for this hypothetical and arbitrarily picked price drop?

[TERA]

Im not calling bitcoin itself a ponzi, but this mentality where you have to convince other speculators to "hold" resembles that of a ponzi. if its really that strong fundamentally, then there should be an elastic support so that sellers cannot drop the price that much until eventually all coins are bought by new buyers. you shouldn't be fearing that if 1% of an asset is sold, it will collapse. let's say you're trading GOOG - you don't give a crap about what other traders are doing and you know it doesn't matter.

[octaft]

YOUR bare assertion that bitcoin is a ponzi scheme will NOT win the day.  And, the mere fact that you may have some experience with Ponzi schemes does NOT mean that you have correctly identified bitcoin properly as a supposed Ponzi scheme. 

With any kind of investment, there is a certain level of reliance on future investors to keep up the price point.. but bitcoin has a lot of tangibles..

A ponzi scheme is different b/c it offers nothing in return and is a scam.. You really should KNOW better than making those kinds of vacuous accusations towards bitcoin without any real solid argument...

By employing the term "Ponzi" you are engaging in a disinformation campaign.. b/c it seems that you know better.

He didn't say bitcoin was a ponzi. He said if all that supports the price is people hoarding them, then in that moment it is functioning sort of as if it were a ponzi.

[chessnut]

this consolidation just keeps going on and contracing.

TERA. I sold at 750 and 630. I was really bearish then, so I dont know about that Hodl mentality.....

[jonoiv]

No one is buying and no one is selling.

while the price is dropping on average of $7-8 per day.   The scales are tipped only one way imho.

Dropping $7-8 per day since when? 

Are selectively picking a start date for this hypothetical and arbitrarily picked price drop?

sorry my mistake, it's $5-6 per day.

[chessnut]

sorry my mistake, it's $5-6 per day.

I think you missed the point entirely

[podyx]

this consolidation just keeps going on and contracing.

TERA. I sold at 750 and 630. I was really bearish then, so I dont know about that Hodl mentality.....

Isn't it so that the more times we test resistance, the better chance to break through?

[chessnut]

Isn't it so that the more times we test resistance, the better chance to break through?

hmm dont know so much. only one thing is true, the longer consolidation goes on for, the sooner it has to stop  that is true in bitcoin.

One could argue that the more times resistance rejects the price, the stronger it is. same is true for support.

[podyx]

Isn't it so that the more times we test resistance, the better chance to break through?

hmm dont know so much. only one thing is true, the longer consolidation goes on for, the sooner it has to stop  that is true in bitcoin.

One could argue that the more times resistance rejects the price, the stronger it is. same is true for support.

So it's exactly the opposite of what I have heard then?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[octaft]

Isn't it so that the more times we test resistance, the better chance to break through?

hmm dont know so much. only one thing is true, the longer consolidation goes on for, the sooner it has to stop  that is true in bitcoin.

One could argue that the more times resistance rejects the price, the stronger it is. same is true for support.

So it's exactly the opposite of what I have heard then?

I would imagine it depends on which way proves the point and suits the agenda of the person you're speaking to in the moment.

[chessnut]

So it's exactly the opposite of what I have heard then?

I dont think there is a rule. price moving into resistance equally reveals a buyer and a seller. in theory, the one that makes the market order is the weakest, but thats not a reason why the wall should move.

[JorgeStolfi]

This news is ~10 days old, but may interest someone:

  Bitcoin Mining Malware Infecting Android Smartphones
  http://www.cellular-news.com/story/Handsets/65154.php

[FullLife]

Also, a price supported by entirely by holding and not by buyers is very weak - it is unusable by merchants due to the lack of liquidity. It is in effect a ponzi scheme.

You should be ashamed of yourself for being involved.  What would your mother think?  Go away.

I have a history of trading ponzi schemes actually, and then getting out just in time before they collapse. It all started when I was 18 years old and I partipated in a ponzi called "12 daily pro", turning $5,000 into $15,000 in a few weeks. Of course the members insisted that it was not a ponzi at the time. It was.. "the future of advertising and multi level marketing" bla bla.

Wow, I was in that as well, what a coincidence.  I was in a few others as well that were running at the same time.  Ended up a decent chunk of change.

[aminorex]

Isn't it so that the more times we test resistance, the better chance to break through?

hmm dont know so much. only one thing is true, the longer consolidation goes on for, the sooner it has to stop  that is true in bitcoin.

One could argue that the more times resistance rejects the price, the stronger it is. same is true for support.

So it's exactly the opposite of what I have heard then?

They are not contradictory.  Rejection count correlates with resistance/support strength.  Each successive assault consumes some of that strength.

[aminorex]

So we are surrounded by embezzlers.

[freedomno1]

This news is ~10 days old, but may interest someone:

  Bitcoin Mining Malware Infecting Android Smartphones
  http://www.cellular-news.com/story/Handsets/65154.php

Well heartbleed has my attention lately but I find it hard to believe that malware developers mining on a phone unless they started in 2011 earn hundreds of bitcoins lol

[aminorex]

This news is ~10 days old, but may interest someone:

  Bitcoin Mining Malware Infecting Android Smartphones
  http://www.cellular-news.com/story/Handsets/65154.php

Well heartbleed has my attention lately but I find it hard to believe that malware developers mining on a phone unless they started in 2011 earn hundreds of bitcoins lol

Scrypt mining perhaps.

[JorgeStolfi]

I find it hard to believe that malware developers mining on a phone unless they started in 2011 earn hundreds of bitcoins lol

I don't know how many bitcoins they coud mine, but there are several hundred million Android smartphones out there.