Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

the more time passes at this stable price, the more likely it will go up from there, but it be a last bulltrap before finally final deep capitulation too

On what time frame? Sure, it could easily creep up a few dollars or even have another sucker's rally, but markets hate uncertainty and I doubt there will be substantial upward movement until resolution on the China Issue. There would need to be a bullish factor that outweighed the potential of tens of thousands of coins being dumped in the Middle Kingdom. It's just a few days. We should know what's what by the 15th. If you don't have asymmetric information, you have to rely on TA and patience.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

The miners decide what the rules are.  Increasingly, that means ghash.io, discus fish, eligius, and btcguild.  Biggest threat to bitcoin today.

[billyjoeallen]

I hope this is the bottom. I hope a rally starts now and goes on forever. I would love to be wrong.

Well I'm not saying you're wrong... the price can stil drop lower. I just can't understand the words about exchange going dark. Was nowhere written nothing about that.
And I really don't care much in which way we are going... Not selling my btc for at least a year, while I will be happy to trade with ltc and getting more of them  

You can also double your coins hypothetically by selling before a plunge and buying back half price. If I had done that in 2011, 2012, or last year, I would be a multimillionaire now.

[solex]

The miners decide what the rules are.  Increasingly, that means ghash.io, discus fish, eligius, and btcguild.  Biggest threat to bitcoin today.

Arguably, the mining situation is in its best state since before mining pools were invented, as the "unknown" is at a record 31.9%
http://blockorigin.pfoe.be/chart.php

[adamstgBit]

I hope this is the bottom. I hope a rally starts now and goes on forever. I would love to be wrong.

Well I'm not saying you're wrong... the price can stil drop lower. I just can't understand the words about exchange going dark. Was nowhere written nothing about that.
And I really don't care much in which way we are going... Not selling my btc for at least a year, while I will be happy to trade with ltc and getting more of them  

You can also double your coins hypothetically by selling before a plunge and buying back half price. If I had done that in 2011, 2012, or last year, I would be a multimillionaire now.

you can also double your coins with 15 well timed %5 swings 

[JayJuanGee]

The miners decide what the rules are.  Increasingly, that means ghash.io, discus fish, eligius, and btcguild.  Biggest threat to bitcoin today.

Instead of the word "threat," you must really mean biggest "vulnerability"? 

If the miners were to be infiltrated, then could destroy bitcoin, and I suppose there could be some miner-related battles in the future and attempts to figure out what is "good for" bitcoin.

[chessnut]

I hope this is the bottom. I hope a rally starts now and goes on forever. I would love to be wrong.

Well I'm not saying you're wrong... the price can stil drop lower. I just can't understand the words about exchange going dark. Was nowhere written nothing about that.
And I really don't care much in which way we are going... Not selling my btc for at least a year, while I will be happy to trade with ltc and getting more of them  

You can also double your coins hypothetically by selling before a plunge and buying back half price. If I had done that in 2011, 2012, or last year, I would be a multimillionaire now.

you can also double your coins with 15 well timed %5 swings 

I think this is the best time in history for a leveraged 1:1 position. If that pulled a margin call on me, id wanna be out all the same.....

[JayJuanGee]

I hope this is the bottom. I hope a rally starts now and goes on forever. I would love to be wrong.

Well I'm not saying you're wrong... the price can stil drop lower. I just can't understand the words about exchange going dark. Was nowhere written nothing about that.
And I really don't care much in which way we are going... Not selling my btc for at least a year, while I will be happy to trade with ltc and getting more of them  

You can also double your coins hypothetically by selling before a plunge and buying back half price. If I had done that in 2011, 2012, or last year, I would be a multimillionaire now.

you can also double your coins with 15 well timed %5 swings 

Or you could decrease your holdings, by either getting this one wrong or getting wrong more than half of the 15 "well-timed" swings... while losing hair in the process. 

[JorgeStolfi]

[fact]
Answer: consensus
[/fact]

Correct -- but WHOSE consensus?

[Adrian-x]

[fud]
We will see. Who are those that ultimately will decide the future of bitcoin?

(Hint: it is neither the Government, nor the banks, nor Wall Street -- nor the owners of bitcoins.)
[/fud]

  we know its you (and possibly another 7 billion skeptics), just try the free drugs voluntary scarcity, I know you will like it!  

[jonoiv]

And any future prediction is just that a prediction,  how else do you want me to represent a future prediction, without making it up?  Seems strange you think I should make a potential prediction but base it on fact.... bit of an oxymoron....

You got me on that one.  I will concede quasi-defeat on that particular point.. NOT only for your getting me on it, but very good in the humor department, as well.      I am considering a come back,  and I realize that I may have gone too far out on a limb in my earlier criticism.

I will say, though, in my defense, that I have NO problem with the making of predictions, and such predictions become better when they have some foundation beyond a mere making of a wish.  Your previous "prediction" just struck so much on the fantasy La La land, without any real grounding.

For example, I predict that bitcoin will fall by 50% in the next 2 days because ... [example of something  or news that is going to cause such].

I don't want to get too preachy when my point was fairly obvious.. but I did enjoy reading your come back..... but your comeback does NOT really affect your original problem, and only points at how I may have been a bit too dogmatic in my own criticism(s).

Also an Ass is not a body part it's a member of the horse family.. The word you're looking for is arse!  
 

NOW you are really getting into trivial technicalities... .. We all know that when I mentioned "ass" in my previous post, I was talking about some "butt hole" or anus or rectum or whatever other common parlance for a body part and not an animal.  Anyhow, a side-point, at best.

Fair points!

I did have a feeling deep down that you were referring to a sphincter,  but without putting my finger on it, there was no precise evidence to call upon.  


I will say though, that until we have good news, the previous trend is unlikely to get reversed.  and the trend lines, I posted do accurately represent the past weeks.   The chart would be the best guess for anyone studying the data if they didn't know anything about bitcoin and they had no other information to go on.   Stick that data in an algorithmic computer prediction without any fundamental information, and it would come to a similar conclusion.  

But because this is bitcoin, and it does have support, other factors do need to be considered. I take that point.  So with that in mind, my personal opinion is bottoming out is far more likely than a reserve pattern forming without some fundamental positive factor.  

Many bears will have a price in their head, and the further we go down the scale the more likely we are to reach that equilibrium.  

A double bottom is a good scenario for the bulls, or a slow drop until we reach the equilibrium stage.   but while we keep touching that trend line and the 15th of April is approaching, the average price is dropping at a rate of about $7 a day, relative capitulation, followed by stagnation with some stability might be not such a bad thing for bitcoin at the moment.    

[billyjoeallen]

The miners decide what the rules are.  Increasingly, that means ghash.io, discus fish, eligius, and btcguild.  Biggest threat to bitcoin today.

Instead of the word "threat," you must really mean biggest "vulnerability"? 

If the miners were to be infiltrated, then could destroy bitcoin, and I suppose there could be some miner-related battles in the future and attempts to figure out what is "good for" bitcoin.

I don't see any way to destroy Bitcoin that wouldn't hurt the destroyer even worse. It would take $20 billion to ensure it could be done and any failed attempt would make it more difficult to try again. You could really hurt it for much less, but not kill it and it would come back stronger. Even if you did kill it, another crypto would replace it almost immediately. You can't kill a protocol.  The laws of economics are immune to legislative fiat.

[KFR]

[fact]
Answer: consensus
[/fact]

Correct -- but WHOSE consensus?

The network's.  

Let's say that a new version of the reference client is released with new rules - 'prints' a squillion more coins.  Nodes of the existing network will have no motivation in adopting it so they will simply not upgrade.  Then there's a progressive fork that doesn't break the rules and the nodes all choose to upgrade to that.  The 'Usurp Bitcoin' project was destined to die early in its infancy.

I could probably explain that better but I'm tired.  This is what I meant by studying.  It's all out there.  You really should study the whole thing - not just the 'investment horror story'.

I'm sure you'll find it pays off in the end.  In more ways than one.  Talking of which, have you tried to use Bitcoin yet?

[Davyd05]

go china.. prove my naysayers wrong.

[chessnut]

Huobi is having another shot at a break out.

[KFR]

@billy

About major Chinies exchanges going dark 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=562524.0

Fascinating. 

[jonoiv]

Huobi is having another shot at a break out.

Attempt 5? 

The volume is low.  This is looking more bearish to be honest.  It could trigger a sell off.   (just my opinion)

[adamstgBit]

here goes nothing.

[adamstgBit]

5