I will say though, that until we have good news, the previous trend is unlikely to get reversed. and the trend lines, I posted do accurately represent the past weeks. The chart would be the best guess for anyone studying the data if they didn't know anything about bitcoin and they had no other information to go on. Stick that data in an algorithmic computer prediction without any fundamental information, and it would come to a similar conclusion.
I do NOT know a whole lot about how to input this kind of information into algorithmic computer prediction, yet I understand the concept. Accordingly, I have little reason to doubt that if one put exactly the data from your previous chart into such a prediction tool, we would likely get similar results as you predicted... Maybe NOT as dramatic, but similar.
On the other hand, I also understand the concept of prediction sufficiently to know that you are being very selective with your timeline, and we do NOT need to incorporate fundamentals data in order to achieve a much different picture. Surely, if we take nearly any starting point after early December 2013 until present, we are going to get a downward trendline. However, if we pick any trendline that starts from mid-November or at any point earlier, we are going to obtain much different results (and likely an upward trendline).
In order to really appreciate the multitude of possibilities in the short-term, we need to also consider the long-term, too. If we take into consideration the long-term, then it is very likely that we get a WTF?
?? result.. - meaning we would NOT be able to figure out with any certainty WTF is gonna happen with BTC prices. and difficulties in predicting what is going to happen one way or another in the short term.. but an inclination towards an upward trend in the long run.... ... and then if we add in various aspects of the fundamentals, we get a bitcoin price that currently seems to be very undervalued.
You seem like a fairly bright guy that is likely engaging in a form of selectivity in your data, and probably I am wasting my time by engaging with you.... b/c you really are a bit outrageous in that latest predictions and a few of your other recent predictions that seem to be predicting a grand short-term downfall that is supposedly obvious.
But because this is bitcoin, and it does have support, other factors do need to be considered. I take that point. So with that in mind, my personal opinion is bottoming out is far more likely than a reserve pattern forming without some fundamental positive factor.
Many bears will have a price in their head, and the further we go down the scale the more likely we are to reach that equilibrium.
A double bottom is a good scenario for the bulls, or a slow drop until we reach the equilibrium stage. but while we keep touching that trend line and the 15th of April is approaching, the average price is dropping at a rate of about $7 a day, relative capitulation, followed by stagnation with some stability might be not such a bad thing for bitcoin at the moment.
These are decent points... Again... depending on the timeline.. and even bears seem to agree if we get stuck at this mid-$400s price range for a considerable amount of time, it is much more likely to break upward rather than breaking downward.. absent further FUD or actual real negative news.
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