I project that we are going to have a quite a few troubling times with bitcoin prices in the coming years; however, if this thread keeps up at approximately its same rate of about 6,000 pages per year (by the way, happy anniversary Adam, in about 9 days), we are going to reach page/price parity in about late 2016 or early 2017 with a page count of 23,456.  That will be a blip in bitcoin price history while we are passing to the mid $30,000 territory for the fluctuating new low price... b/c the new price range for the next several months will fluctuate between $35,000 and $50,000.

Sorry to be so bearish, but that seems to be what is likely to happen... and remember, you heard it here, first!!!

Probably, we would need to have more than a year of slow downtrend without any uptrend before I would begin to develop fear.  Surely that kind of scenario is possible, but to me it seems to be a pretty low likelihood.    The more likely scenario is that we are going to get an uptrend long before a year, and we may even get such an uptrend in the next few hours or the next few weeks or next few months...   

Sure each of these scenarios have some impact on me personally, but I am quite far off from fear at this moment.

ON the other hand, there are likely quite a few people who did NOT expect to wait that long.. and also did NOT expect to see a 60% decline in their BTC portfolio, if they bought their whole chunk at somewhere in the $1200 price range.  Potentially lack of foresight... or maybe just bad luck.. either explanation could be made for these kinds of investors who are in the 60% ballpark in the red.

YEP... possible to have both.. .. there may be bumps in the road.. but still possible to have both

There are various roles for a lot of people, and hanging around here is ok. and going out and building infrastructure is o.k  and betting on the building of infrastructure is o.k. too, as long as maybe a person can do that.  Sometimes it is NOT easy to be able to have enough of a savings or even foresight to know when to get into some kind of investment and how much to invest or what role to play, exactly... each of us needs to make his/her own choices regarding how and the extent to which we are going to participate.

Based on the totality of the circumstances and the price performance over the last week, I still have a hard time believing that BTC prices will go below $425 in the next day or so, absent some big negative news.......

Some are banking that negative news is coming, regarding Huobi and BTC China.. and I have my doubts about that too..

So, i have my doubts.. and my uncertainty... .. Have NOT quite gotten to fearful stage, yet.  My next buy point in the next 1-5 days will be $429-ish.. if we happen to get that low.  otherwise I will be HODLin...

You are being very unrealistic if you are of the belief that getting rid of speculators is helpful to BTC... In the end, the speculators are likely to make or break BTC... Speculators are likely needed in order to drive incentives to build infrastructure and to get other people interested - expanding the user base.

Serious question.  Are you talking about the order books with 19,900 BTC?  That would NOT be a reflection of how many BTC are on Bitstamp, or how many could be transferred over quickly, if needed.  Surely, Bitstamp does NOT seem to be getting the kind of volume of GOX... but is this really a meaningful or even accurate statistic to make your point?

I agree with you more or less with these kinds of numbers.  B/c increasing the market cap does NOT depend upon the total value of the market cap needing to be pumped into the BTC system.... and probably does NOT even need potential BTC buyers to understand the consequences of their actions.  All it needs are people who are willing to pay $6,000 per BTC ... and that is only $6 per mBTC.... remarketing from BTC to mBTC can help alot.. at some point b/c investors may perceive mBTC to be $6 b/c they can buy $6 worth of goods and/or services for 1mBTC.



I think that we need more information for this hypothetical.... especially concerning time-line for the increase.  If the price were to go up really quickly, we may get a lot more sellers than you expect.  It is NOT b/c they do NOT believe in BTC, but they will believe that they could trade to increase their BTC stash.. Ultimately, my point is that there is likely quite a few more BTC for sale up until $10k... and variation depending on how we get there.

OM F'n G!!!!!!! 

What's gonna happen? 

I better sell my BTC now while I can still get $455-ish for each of my BTC.  Everyone SELL, SELL, SELL!!!!!  Something bad is gonna happen to BTC in four weeks!!!!!!!!  You need to get off of the train platform, immediately b/c the train will NOT be leaving the platform as had been anticipated!!!!!!  Get off the platform.. hurry up!!!!!!

WHEW. 

Glad I got that off my chest.... I feel better.. o.k. back to normal.. HODL, everyone.     I hope you guys (and a few gals) did NOT sell based on my short-lived emotional outburst.. I just was feeling a little bit in the SODL mood.. but I am back to normal, now.  I think.

It is quite strange that he would even be able to get more than 100 responses.   

It may be that some people do have some charitable sense of humor, even with playing around with polls that seem ill-conceived and likely NOT to be used for non-FUD purposes.   

I did NOT know you were suicidal?      Seemed like you were having so much fun with you FUD making.

Yeah.. I was thinking that you may have gone delusional for a brief period.. Maybe took some acid or some psychedelic mushrooms  and then posted.. ?  he he he    

Do you have a link for that survey?  And, where is the $480 and above option? 

And, the central  assumption of the poll seems to be bad, too.  China will NEVER be completely out of the BTC game.. you don't just shut off China like Mt. Gox.. it is NOT exactly the same as GOX.. and you cannot really shut the chinese off.. those facts do NOT really exist in the current situation.  Even GOX is NOT completely out of the BTC game yet.. b/c we are still getting fall out and I am sure GOX will continue to provide a certain amount of FUD and drama.. even though the GOX situation has largely been contained.

I could be a FLASH IN THE PAN, BIG FISH, if I were to muster all my resources and blow my wadd in one shot.. he he he.. .. NOT gonna do it though.. I am HODLin and BUY, BUY, BUYin to the extent that I can muster reasonable amounts of fiat and attempt to predict the lowest possible price points.. If we stay stagnant like this in the next couple of months, I may be able to gather enough fiat to buy another 3-7 BTC.. maybe?  I am NOT so confident as to believe in leveraging.... .. NOT at the moment... and as I write this response... (Generally, I am NOT an emotional investor, so I do NOT change my strategy too much based on transient feelings).

There could be some special fee arrangements for "friends" and "relatives" of exchange owners... That's an additional problem with some of these exchanges in which we cannot really be sure if they are or the extent to which they may have rules that apply to some groups that do NOT apply to other groups.  How wide spread is difficult to really know for sure.

That seems like a very good point.. and it could even allow for BTC price stagnation for an additional 6 months or so from today... but sooner or later, as you seem to be implying, we are going to get some transference of focus from infrastructure towards the acquisition of BTC to facilitate and publicize the use of these various infrastructure pieces.. which will likely cause considerable demand for bitcoins and fractions thereof.. (satoshis)

Common Chestnut... YOU  are converting into a bear too?  We really must be due for a turn around any time soon.. Maybe you should call us remaining quasi-bulls a few names too and threaten us?  he he he

It makes me wonder, really, whether posters are being genuine and non-biased when they are transforming from bearish to bullish without really putting their transformation in a convincing argument.... and then when they seem to be throwing out mudslinging and calling names to peeps with an alternative view.. ... Makes it seem as if there may be some ulterior motive at work.

I never heard of Notary being able to increase BTC prices... how so?  Why would you need a certain amount of BTC to perform notary?  I can see remittances causing a very high demand for BTC.. b/c let's say you want to transfer 1000 dollars from one country to another.  .. you purchase the appropriate amount of BTC and perform the transmission.. and it could be that the dollars would be in BTC for a while.. before it can be used again.. that creates value.. and maybe the same BTC can be used several times in a 24 hour period to transfer value to and from various parts of the world.. that causes BTC prices to increase.    A notary is an administration function.. how would that create value.. could do it with 1 satoshi.. no?  can you explain?

The pot calling the kettle black.. hm? 

I thought he (Tera) was a she, and she does seem to give some reasons why she is making such BTC downward trend predictions..... even though I do NOT agree with her, she provides specifics and charts and even talks about some of her experiences. 

She does seem to have some logic defying push towards downward trajectory that seems to be in part based on low volume, too.. ... ..  I think in the next six months she (tera) will be shown to be wrong in her overall trajectory.. but I am NOT even so confident that she will be wrong to make any kind of bet of money upon it and against her... ON the other hand, with you, shroomskit, I was confident to bet against your various projections.. that we would be below $350 by this monday or alternatively that we would be below $350 within the next two weeks... that was truly a bet that seemed, a the time, worth taking b/c it was pure pie in the sky...... but NOW you seem to be taking a different view, for some reason?