Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

Would you give up trying to convince everyone that this is the bottom and the reversal is about to happen to a new ATH you clowns. You know very well from these charts that the odds are we are going down even further, below 400, but you're angry because you're stuck in your stubborn HODL position.  I guess HODL isn't so glorious now, is it.

... The market has been flat for 9 days despite 'utter disaster', something I expected.... and I assure you, HODL is better than shotr right now.

we are in territory for a reversal. I dont see why the odds are that we are going down. Im not going to put too much faith in your macd. and this is not a trend as such, it is a correction.

It's just a dead cat bounce off of a major support level and the fact that it's spent so much time so low against this support level with such low volume is not bullish at all.

[chessnut]

It's just a dead cat bounce off of a major support level and the fact that it's spent so much time so low against this support level with such low volume is not bullish at all.

Bitcoin is not a dead cat. It can come to life at any moment. One player can corner this market if they wish, and buying into disaster is strategically sound for all large investors. It was just a few weeks ago that investors representing 250 Billion worth of capital met to discuss investing. they could put the chinese out of their misery pretty smartly.
Low volume does not indicate trend. but when the bidding is up on low volume, it is certainly not bearish.

Im honestly not calling for 'the' low but I think it's a great price to buy and a terrible time to be short.

Im also really sorry if you let go of your short last week, but here we are at 460, I stand by what I say. Im not trying to convince anyone as such but inevitably we come here to share ideas and discuss.

[TERA]

Everyone thinks we're due for a rally now and most people's reasoning includes that there has been a rally every 9 months. "It has happened 4 times, and now it will happen again", right?  Well, if you look at a one week candle chart, and you look at the rsi, you will see a divergence in this last rally, indicating that the trend is over. This could be seen all the way back in December.

[JorgeStolfi]

Especially when those people learn that such scams keep occurring, the lost bitcoins dollars are never recovered, and no one gets punished.

Sounds like Wall Street and modern banking. Lotsa folks continuing to invest there.

Well, perhaps you are right about big banks and high finance.  But many smaller fish have been sent to jail for securities fraud and related crimes.

Madoff is in jail, some 25 people related to the Enron and Worldcom scandals were found guilty of criminal charges and some or all went to jail, ....

Perhaps MtGOX can be equated to Lehmann Bros and declared "too big to jail". But people who stole 1/10 as much should not deserve that privilege.  

EDIT: typos

[seleme]

Everyone thinks we're due for a rally now and most people's reasoning includes that there has been a rally every 9 months. "It has happened 4 times, and now it will happen again", right?  Well, if you look at a one week candle chart, and you look at the rsi, you will see a divergence in this last rally, indicating that the trend is over. This could be seen all the way back in December.

I don't expect the rally of huge proportions yet but it's only China uncertainty that keeps us from nice 15-20% rise. 1 day charts are not bearish at all, they are on the border of a move up.

[TERA]

Everyone thinks we're due for a rally now and most people's reasoning includes that there has been a rally every 9 months. "It has happened 4 times, and now it will happen again", right?  Well, if you look at a one week candle chart, and you look at the rsi, you will see a divergence in this last rally, indicating that the trend is over. This could be seen all the way back in December.

I don't expect the rally of huge proportions yet but it's only China uncertainty that it keeps it to have a nice 15-20% rise. 1 day charts are not bearish at all, they are on the border of a move up.

1 day chart could break out but right off the bat it's blocked by 3 day charts at 490 and 590 and that downtrend line at 550. It's almost not worth the risk to make the trade, especially when Huobi could just shut down at any day.

[seleme]

Everyone thinks we're due for a rally now and most people's reasoning includes that there has been a rally every 9 months. "It has happened 4 times, and now it will happen again", right?  Well, if you look at a one week candle chart, and you look at the rsi, you will see a divergence in this last rally, indicating that the trend is over. This could be seen all the way back in December.

I don't expect the rally of huge proportions yet but it's only China uncertainty that it keeps it to have a nice 15-20% rise. 1 day charts are not bearish at all, they are on the border of a move up.

1 day chart could break out but right off the bat it's blocked by 3 day charts at 490 and 590 and that downtrend line at 550. It's almost not worth the risk to make the trade, especially when Huobi could just shut down at any day.

I agree it's risky and that uncertainty is the reason we haven't moved up already.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[chessnut]

Everyone thinks we're due for a rally now and most people's reasoning includes that there has been a rally every 9 months. "It has happened 4 times, and now it will happen again", right?  Well, if you look at a one week candle chart, and you look at the rsi, you will see a divergence in this last rally, indicating that the trend is over. This could be seen all the way back in December.

... It could be that bitcoin is coming to it's end.
I think there are two fundamental arguments here.

- bearish case bitcoin prices are artificially high (MtGox) and nobody is really interested => the price will fall.  If the base infrastructure cant develop fast enough to save it, the speculative weight will kill it for good. This will likely be decided in 6 months time or so.

- bullish case. chinese demand drove the market to genuine highs. The ban on third party deposits is thus a very short term problem because it takes insignificant funds to reach fresh ATHs and infrastructure is evidently developing at an exponential rate outside of china. Exchanges and investment vehicles opening in Europe and USA will thus easily support and drive the price to new ATH in the next 6 months. Investors will not allow each other to let the price fall too far in this case.

I think the bullish case is true. bears are running out of time quickly before a nice surprise comes along.

[seleme]

I'm not thinking in the line of hope of new ATH currently. When it happens, it will happen.

Right now I want China crap to disappear so I could trade 10-15% moves without fear of them jumping on my neck.. until it explodes again.

I have enough capital now to make a nice living from 5-10% monthly profit (well, unless some exchange runs with my money, lol).

[TERA]

Everyone thinks we're due for a rally now and most people's reasoning includes that there has been a rally every 9 months. "It has happened 4 times, and now it will happen again", right?  Well, if you look at a one week candle chart, and you look at the rsi, you will see a divergence in this last rally, indicating that the trend is over. This could be seen all the way back in December.

... It could be that bitcoin is coming to it's end.
I think there are two fundamental arguments here.

- bearish case bitcoin prices are artificially high (MtGox) and nobody is really interested => the price will fall.  If the base infrastructure cant develop fast enough to save it, the speculative weight will kill it for good. This will likely be decided in 6 months time or so.

- bullish case. chinese demand drove the market to genuine highs. The ban on third party deposits is thus a very short term problem because it takes insignificant funds to reach fresh ATHs and infrastructure is evidently developing at an exponential rate outside of china. Exchanges and investment vehicles opening in Europe and USA will thus easily support and drive the price to new ATH in the next 6 months. Investors will not allow each other to let the price fall too far in this case.

I think the bullish case is true. bears are running out of time quickly before a nice surprise comes along.

Why are there only two cases and why do you believe that a downwards move from here is the end of bitcoin? It could very well recover in some years time.

[chessnut]

Why are there only two cases and why do you believe that a downwards move from here is the end of bitcoin? It could very well recover in some years time.

I said - the speculative weight will bring it down. all the capital is speculative. 99%. if this asset is not performing in 6 months time, the crash will self perpetuate to zero. by then investors could afford to replace it with a new coin. google could pounce on the opportunity, for example. Ripple (although inferior) might hold the fort until bitcoin is dead.

[macsga]

Tera I have an immense respect for your work but I have to disagree.  I can't see the price dropping below $400 although I do think we're still a few weeks away from the sonic boom everybody's anticipating so sweatily.  

This is a strong hands Vs weak hands game. Chances are that after a long sideways movement we will be moving upwards (because those who started this already got their share). I've often mentioned here that the USD/BTC price is "handled" by "institutions" without ANY regulative authority to prevent them from performing fraud. They could lie for almost about everything and call it "bot movement". Besides the biggest USD/BTC transactions happen offline.

Just my BTC0.00000002

[MahaRamana]

Everyone thinks we're due for a rally now and most people's reasoning includes that there has been a rally every 9 months. "It has happened 4 times, and now it will happen again", right?  Well, if you look at a one week candle chart, and you look at the rsi, you will see a divergence in this last rally, indicating that the trend is over. This could be seen all the way back in December.

The price would not be 450 USD if everyone was expecting a rally...

We are probably months away from a rally. Which does not mean we'll see new lows.

[chessnut]

we may have a stand off on our hands with this wedge. any move through 3000Y would be significant. looking for signs of failure too.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Davyd05]

bulls and bears in despair.. while the hodlers debate how many coins a stash really needs

cheerio carry on market, carry on.

[JorgeStolfi]

How much would God make by trading bitcoin?

God is the best day trader because, being omniscent, He can see all the way into the future, and thus He knows when to buy and sell for maximum profit.  (Being omnipotent, He could also manipulate the price at will, but being omnihonest He would not do it.  On the other hand, being omnisubtle, He can buy and sell as much as He wants without disturbing the order book.)

Suppose that God decided to start trading BTC versus USD on Nov/29, 2013 00:00, a little before the all-time high. Suppose that He started with 1000 USD, and (out of habit) did at most one trade per day, at the day's weighted mean price (total USD traded that day, divided by total BTC traded).  If He aimed to maximize his USD account at 2014-04-01 23:59, what would He do, and how much would He have at the end?

Unless the Devil put bugs in my code, this would be His strategy:

This plot shows how much USD (green) or BTC (orange) He would have at the start of each day.  By this strategy, He would end up with about 8,901.88 USD, that is, almost 9 times his starting capital -- even though the BTC price went mostly down from that day.

If he started instead with just one dollar on Dec/24, 2011 00:00 (when my Bitstamp data file begins), he would do this:

and He would end up with a bit more than 8.672 million USD.

Of course He could make MUCH higher profits if He traded once every hour, or every minute. Figuring out how much is left as a penance for the sinners.

Recipe (for GNU/Linux)
Scripts and data files

[solex]

Milling herd outside the door,
One by one each bear turns,
sharp, eyes white with fear,
sees, the writing on the wall,

[ShroomsKit]

Would you give up trying to convince everyone that this is the bottom and the reversal is about to happen to a new ATH you clowns. You know very well from these charts that the odds are we are going down even further, below 400, but you're angry because you're stuck in your stubborn HODL position.  I guess HODL isn't so glorious now, is it.

... The market has been flat for 9 days despite 'utter disaster', something I expected.... and I assure you, HODL is better than shotr right now. this 'trend' is very vulnerable to a spike into the upper 500s, and 400 is growing stronger every day.

we are in territory for a reversal. I dont see why the odds are that we are going down. Im not going to put too much faith in your macd. and this is not a trend as such, it is a correction.

Why do you bother with this guy? Every post he makes about how we are going down is because of his need to buy cheaper coins. You could basically say he's trolling.  There is no point in argueing with him. He can't give you any real reasons why we would go down.