Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

Don't you guys who were expecting up up and away feel like dumb-asses yet? I wanna hear you cry and I'm not buying back until you do.

On the 15th of April my short-term tax obligations will be acquitted.  After that, all of my income will be available for BTC purchases.  If you could monkey hammer it until then, I would be thankful.  If  Russell 2k puts continue to perform as expected, I may be adding a substantial number of coins fairly soon, and a lower price would help.  I'm certainly not going to expend my own stash to get a lower price, but I don't mind if you do.


 

[jonoiv]

Can anyone confirm that this is just another beartrap before we go over to the trend reversal?

 

[aminorex]

Bitfinex passes proof of solvency audit:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=560457.0

Sigh,  another pseudo-audit trying to fool people with a thick cloud of colorful technological smoke.

At least comparable in quality to a top-notch 10K filing.

[Rampion]

Oh what now? China banned Bitcoin again? Or is it another random rumour?

Ignore everyone here who aren't yelling "trend reversal to the moon!" and guarantee that you will always be surprised when there are new drops
Some people here are good reminders of the fact, that handling wealth is not for everyone.

Are you talking to me? Why would i do that?
Of course i realize we can go down any minute. I'm just wondering why people have to keep on dumping. When is it enough.

I thought that after so many months into bitcoin you would have learnt something about the markets: price is driven by price action. That's why when BTC goes up for a while the growth becomes exponential (and more so when ATH is broken), and also why the lower it goes the bigger are the dumps.

People is emotional, and the amount of euphoria during a mania phase is directly proportional to the level of fear just before the capitulation.

[JayJuanGee]

75billion market cap would only need about 7 billion to fund

I agree with you more or less with these kinds of numbers.  B/c increasing the market cap does NOT depend upon the total value of the market cap needing to be pumped into the BTC system.... and probably does NOT even need potential BTC buyers to understand the consequences of their actions.  All it needs are people who are willing to pay $6,000 per BTC ... and that is only $6 per mBTC.... remarketing from BTC to mBTC can help alot.. at some point b/c investors may perceive mBTC to be $6 b/c they can buy $6 worth of goods and/or services for 1mBTC.

This is because it get's pumped and nobody wants to sell when it rises
In fact, there is probably less then a million bitcoin for sale right now under $10k

I think that we need more information for this hypothetical.... especially concerning time-line for the increase.  If the price were to go up really quickly, we may get a lot more sellers than you expect.  It is NOT b/c they do NOT believe in BTC, but they will believe that they could trade to increase their BTC stash.. Ultimately, my point is that there is likely quite a few more BTC for sale up until $10k... and variation depending on how we get there.

[billyjoeallen]

The first person to panic wins if you get to buy back in lower.

[chromosoma]

Ok, i going sleep.
Hope to see  bitcoin  at 250 Dollar when i awake.
And you HODL!

[dreamspark]

The first person to panic wins if you get to buy back in lower.

This is true, first person to panic buy wins as well cause you get more coins for your mullah!

[aminorex]

The first person to panic wins if you get to buy back in lower.

This is true, first person to panic buy wins as well cause you get more coins for your mullah!

I didn't realize you were a muslim.  Although, I think zakat is intended for the poor, not for the mullah.

[JayJuanGee]

255 day cycle?

*snip*
edit: it take about 6 months to deflate from last bubble then 2 months for stabilisation and 1 month to initiate bullrun = about 9months cycles. the key is being patient. yeayyy

Discussion here
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1z3m1z/a_look_at_four_bubbles_pricelog_linear_fit/

They are talking about a peak of $6000.

That would mean the market cap would need to move from 5.5 billion to + 75 Billion.   Who is going to fund this ?  Because I'm not and I doubt the whole bitcoin community "all in" could fund 75 billion.  

So where does the new investment come from ?

13 times it's current price, needs 13 times as much money.  Who is going to fund your dream before you dump your nice 13 x profit?

EDIT:  im not talking at you specifically, but at the people in this link you sent.

That is thanks to scarcity...

Today there are only 19900 Bitcoins for sale at Bitstamp, Gox and their Bitcoins are gone, and we have a LOT of Hodlers.

Thanks to holders (believers) there is a great scarcity, i think the next bullrun can be epic, you don't need lots of billions for a great market cap. you only need a very low supply, and holders

Serious question.  Are you talking about the order books with 19,900 BTC?  That would NOT be a reflection of how many BTC are on Bitstamp, or how many could be transferred over quickly, if needed.  Surely, Bitstamp does NOT seem to be getting the kind of volume of GOX... but is this really a meaningful or even accurate statistic to make your point?

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

The first person to panic wins if you get to buy back in lower.

Billyjoeallen bear is not as funny as the bull one...

[Adrian-x]

Yes,paper  money  are the sign of value, of work.
For example you work as engineer and design new car. You get paid. This is the reward for you work.
You  go to the supermarket and buy some bread.  The money you pay  serve as the reward for  farmers, driver, workers at the ]
Yes, debts, credits etc. There are much more money exist then people ever earned. But still paper money   is a good motivation for peopel to do something to sociaty.  Why  clean streets, why  do some dirty job if you can just mine coins? Why designing a car or a spaceship , if you can buy BTC-RIG and stay at home.
The work should be done by humans, not ASICS...

Why? ... because technology magnifies our productivity by many orders of magnetude. We how have the power to catch all the fish, cut down all the trees, and mine all fossil fuel in my lifetime.

This technological productivity gain is being invested in more growth, (more not better) we need our economy to respond to the simply economic rule of supply and demand.

We have inherently a demand for sustained existence, and a mix of finite and renewable resources. (This is ineffectively managed by central control)

The work of the TPTB managing our economy ensures income inequality (through inflation) and environmental destruction (through growth). While discouraging disruptive innovation to preserve the Status Quo.

While we all need to be motivated to contribute to our economic success, it is not an equal analysis to compare the fruits of human labour (real money) to the risk taken by a miner investing in an ASIC to create a digital money substitute that is governed by immutable rules independent of the central control system we have today. When "real money" has been substituted for the equivalent of the shells you consider impractical as money.

Using Bitcoin is by it's nature an experiment in restoring the free market system, it is disruptive and ugly but it is working.

[billyjoeallen]

The first person to panic wins if you get to buy back in lower.

This is true, first person to panic buy wins as well cause you get more coins for your mullah!

Do you honestly think there is more greed than fear in this market right now?

[aminorex]

Do you honestly think there is more greed than fear in this market right now?

Not enough of either to create much volatility.  I see more fear on the naz, the nikkei.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I personally doubt that after  fall to 100-200$ bitcoin will rise again.
Just scare to think about all those people who newly  bought  all those gridseeds, dragons with  THs of power, thinking they will  get money back.
But now, difficulty is still rising, and value is falling. This hardware will never  ever get your money back.

Is htere any other  purpose for SHA256 ASICs? Can you hack protected files with it?

Where do people get this retarded idea from that "Bitcoin is dead if it falls below price x".

Oh yeah, I know: from the same jumping-to-conclusions part of the brain that tells them "we never fell below the previous ATH, so it can't happen this time either"...

I actually agree with the donkey on this one. Low price has little threat to bitcoin. Right now,a low price would actually strengthen bitcoin, not weaken it. There has to be a solid bottom and certainty, so things could get moving again. Right now everyone who has a clue, are on hold because they have started to realize that the current price is only held up by desperation, denial and overly optimistic hopes. So, this uncertainty is actually slowing down all the progress that is going around bitcoin. I was already begging in January for people not to pump the price up when it is only supported by denial, desperation and hype. It was easy to see that the only thing it does, is it made the process a lot longer then needed. BTC should have fallen at 300, rested there for a month and now we would already be on a solid uptrend. But the fools kept pumping the market and created a lot of uncertainty about the present situation. But now the fall will take longer and the drop will be deeper.
Only real threat to bitcoin is competition, since the entire idea of open-sourced monetary systems is too big to just put it back in the box. The price may fall, but as long as there aren't solid competition, then it won't kill bitcoin itself.

In the same vain as your post but I'm thinking year not months. On this note it reminds me of a metaphor Gavin made paraphrasing it went like this.

Developing for Bitcoin is like driving a car at 120km per/h while trying to build the steering system or change the tiers, while the occupants fight over the steering wheal and there's a big guy called satoshidice who has the music on full volume with his foot flat on the accelerator.

A crash in price like the kind that would make me cry is just what Bitcoin needs. Shake out the weak ASIC developers, give core developers space to do what they do. It will be very good fore the core believes to test there faith.

Well said..
I also agree that it would have been healthier for the development environment of bitcoin to have a year long resting period. I'm afraid that this isn't possible any more since the competition will also keep pushing. The word is out that it could be possible to offer monetary services separate from global banking. There are smart and powerful people and organizations developing their own variants, that won't be made public before they are considered perfect.
I personally think that the main thing that needs development is the coin supply. Fixed coin supply with increasing deflation makes the currency too attractive for speculative play. As long as there are good opportunities for speculative play, then there won't ever be price stability, and that is the main thing that creates a quality currency.

[Rampion]

The first person to panic wins if you get to buy back in lower.

This is true, first person to panic buy wins as well cause you get more coins for your mullah!

Do you honestly think there is more greed than fear in this market right now?

You only have fear when you are close to the very bottom. Those who feel euphoria or fear always lose, because they buy near the top and sell near the bottom.

Just buy when this forum is bloated by FUD-spreader trolls, and sell when the thread is completely bloated by train pictures.

For the record: I'm buying myself, going in the $300 range is possible in my book, but no way we are going below $266. Given the fact that I bought most of my bitcoins in the $10 to $20 range, buying a little more at $450 or $370 is not really affecting much my average buy-in price. In fact I'm just buying back aprox. the same amount of bitcoins I sold in the $700 to $900 range, which is just the course of action I had in mi mind when I sold.

If we go below $266 (VERY unlikely) I'd expect a long, multi-month bear market, but I'm betting on it NOT happening.

EDITED (some grammar + additions)

[JayJuanGee]

I know this is the wrongest place ever to mention this, but I wish the price would just plummet to the point where all the people who are in this for the money would disappear. Bitcoin is about so much more than it's dollar value. We are building something more important than the internet, and it's like people are obsessing over the price of domain names.

You are being very unrealistic if you are of the belief that getting rid of speculators is helpful to BTC... In the end, the speculators are likely to make or break BTC... Speculators are likely needed in order to drive incentives to build infrastructure and to get other people interested - expanding the user base.

[JorgeStolfi]

It's trivially easy to buy and sell bitcoin face to face. Why should we care if bitcoin fails by your definition? If is is being used, it is succeeding to us.

If bitcoin is banned (again, an hypothetical scenario -- I don't think it will be), BitPay will close.  You will not be able to use bitcoin to pay for purchases on internet stores lke Amazon and Overstock.  You will not be able to pay for hotels, travel or entertainment,.  You will not be able to use bitcoins to buy newspaper, coffe, groceries, pay the rent.  You may be lucky to find a plumber or real estate agent that accepts bitcoin, but it will be risky (IRS etc.) Your salary will be in old money and you will not have any legal way to convert it to bitcoin.  If you pay for something in advance with bicoin, and the other side does not deliver, you cannot complain to the police.  And so on.

So, what would you use your bitcoins for? 

knee-jerk deference to authority

Although many people (myself included) are unhappy about the government they have, the vast majority actually wants a strong government with effective laws,  police and courts -- because they know what happens when those things fail.

Your premises are absurd, which implies any conclusion can be derived, and hence all are possible.

Er, which premises are absurd?

[billyjoeallen]

The first person to panic wins if you get to buy back in lower.

This is true, first person to panic buy wins as well cause you get more coins for your mullah!

Do you honestly think there is more greed than fear in this market right now?

You only have fear when you are close to the very bottom. Those who feel euphoria or fear always lose, because they buy near the top and sell near the bottom.

Just buy when this forum is bloated by FUD-spreader trolls, and sell when the thread is completely bloated by train pictures.

For the record: I'm buying myself, going in the $300 range is possible in my book, but no way we are going below $266. If we really go below $266 (VERY unlikely) I'd expect a long, multi-month bear market, but I'm betting on it NOT happening.

I'm more of an "It's always darkest before it goes pitch black" kind of guy. I have many times more coins in cold storage so I'm using my trading account as a hedge right now. Worse thing that can happen to me is that I'm stuck with tens of thousands in fiat while my main stash rockets up in value. I think I can live with that. Locking in profit on coins I bought in two digits may be a fear move, but it's the smart play. How many people with much much more BTC than me have to do the same thing for price to crater? Not Many.

[aminorex]

For the record: I'm buying myself, going in the $300 range is possible in my book, but no way we are going below $266. If we really go below $266 (VERY unlikely) I'd expect a long, multi-month bear market, but I'm betting on it NOT happening.

When 2nd mkt or the twinkyfloii float an ETN, the first really fat channel for fiat inflows will open up.  Q4 at the earliest.  If there were a long bear, I suspect the next bubble would be a superbubble, in the dec14 - mar15 period, roughly 100x bottom to top.