Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Davyd05]

bulls and bears in despair.. while the hodlers debate how many coins a stash really needs

cheerio carry on market, carry on.

[JorgeStolfi]

How much would God make by trading bitcoin?

God is the best day trader because, being omniscent, He can see all the way into the future, and thus He knows when to buy and sell for maximum profit.  (Being omnipotent, He could also manipulate the price at will, but being omnihonest He would not do it.  On the other hand, being omnisubtle, He can buy and sell as much as He wants without disturbing the order book.)

Suppose that God decided to start trading BTC versus USD on Nov/29, 2013 00:00, a little before the all-time high. Suppose that He started with 1000 USD, and (out of habit) did at most one trade per day, at the day's weighted mean price (total USD traded that day, divided by total BTC traded).  If He aimed to maximize his USD account at 2014-04-01 23:59, what would He do, and how much would He have at the end?

Unless the Devil put bugs in my code, this would be His strategy:

This plot shows how much USD (green) or BTC (orange) He would have at the start of each day.  By this strategy, He would end up with about 8,901.88 USD, that is, almost 9 times his starting capital -- even though the BTC price went mostly down from that day.

If he started instead with just one dollar on Dec/24, 2011 00:00 (when my Bitstamp data file begins), he would do this:

and He would end up with a bit more than 8.672 million USD.

Of course He could make MUCH higher profits if He traded once every hour, or every minute. Figuring out how much is left as a penance for the sinners.

Recipe (for GNU/Linux)
Scripts and data files

[solex]

Milling herd outside the door,
One by one each bear turns,
sharp, eyes white with fear,
sees, the writing on the wall,

[ShroomsKit]

Would you give up trying to convince everyone that this is the bottom and the reversal is about to happen to a new ATH you clowns. You know very well from these charts that the odds are we are going down even further, below 400, but you're angry because you're stuck in your stubborn HODL position.  I guess HODL isn't so glorious now, is it.

... The market has been flat for 9 days despite 'utter disaster', something I expected.... and I assure you, HODL is better than shotr right now. this 'trend' is very vulnerable to a spike into the upper 500s, and 400 is growing stronger every day.

we are in territory for a reversal. I dont see why the odds are that we are going down. Im not going to put too much faith in your macd. and this is not a trend as such, it is a correction.

Why do you bother with this guy? Every post he makes about how we are going down is because of his need to buy cheaper coins. You could basically say he's trolling.  There is no point in argueing with him. He can't give you any real reasons why we would go down.

[jl2012]

He would end up with a bit more than 8.672 million USD.

For such amount you can't ignore the slippage

[fotosonics]

Bitcoin will have its day in Congress.

Is that Roosevelt on the right, standing up?

Haha

Yes. There's also no way all these presidents were alive and hanging out together. It is a painting, after all... you can't get too literal because it's clearly not meant as such.

[JorgeStolfi]

For such amount you can't ignore the slippage

That's where being "omnisubtle"  comes in handy. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[sidhujag]

Why are there only two cases and why do you believe that a downwards move from here is the end of bitcoin? It could very well recover in some years time.

I said - the speculative weight will bring it down. all the capital is speculative. 99%. if this asset is not performing in 6 months time, the crash will self perpetuate to zero. by then investors could afford to replace it with a new coin. google could pounce on the opportunity, for example. Ripple (although inferior) might hold the fort until bitcoin is dead.

Btc is worth $10k alone on notary.. now add other use cases.. speculative is a special word here.

[ErisDiscordia]

Would you give up trying to convince everyone that this is the bottom and the reversal is about to happen to a new ATH you clowns. You know very well from these charts that the odds are we are going down even further, below 400, but you're angry because you're stuck in your stubborn HODL position.  I guess HODL isn't so glorious now, is it.

I used to enjoy your TA posts, but ever since you turned bear they've gotten so nasty and bitter, that they just make me cringe 

[chessnut]

Btc is worth $10k alone on notary.. now add other use cases.. speculative is a special word here.

in theory, it has huge intrinsic value. but it needs the infrastructure, which it doesn't have right now. I cant think of a single use of bitcoin that can support a price of more than, say, $50 today. speculators exiting the market would crush that price support.

[cAPSLOCK]

Bitcoin will have its day in Congress.

Is that Roosevelt on the right, standing up?

Haha

Yes. There's also no way all these presidents were alive and hanging out together. It is a painting, after all... you can't get too literal because it's clearly not meant as such.

I like how they have GWB on the left (our right) and JFK on the right.

[chessnut]

hidden sell order on Bitfinex  @457.

[JorgeStolfi]

This gradual upward trend should continue for another 18 hours at least, until the banks reopen on Tuesday morning in China.

After that, if there are no other bad news, or (better) the April 15 rumor is denied, perhaps this trend will continue (or accelerate) up to the range 3000--3500 CNY = 485--570 USD, where it was before the rumor  I do not see why it would rise beyond that.

If the April 15 rumor is confirmed, I expect another substantial drop, perhaps stretched out until that date.  It seems pointless to speculate beyond that, since the shape of the world will have changed.

[MahaRamana]

Btc is worth $10k alone on notary.. now add other use cases.. speculative is a special word here.

in theory, it has huge intrinsic value. but it needs the infrastructure, which it doesn't have right now. I cant think of a single use of bitcoin that can support a price of more than, say, $50 today. speculators exiting the market would crush that price support.

All speculators exiting at the same time would require that everyone recognizes at the same time that bitcoin has no value whatsoever. Of course 50 USD would be crushed. The probability of that happening right now is close to 0.
Millions of USD are being invested by angel investors in the infrastructure right now, hundreds of ATM are being planned and installed. The money is not going in the bitcoin for now but in its infrastructure.
When bitcoin price is going up, it increases the relative return on capital on companies and infrastructure investment as compared to direct bitcoin investment. Which means more interesting to invest in infrastructure. As the money is going to infrastructure, it is not going in BTC anymore which is depressing the price while investments are being made in infrastructure (current situation).

The last bull run has triggered massive investment decisions in the startups and infrastructure. This money is going "in" bitcoin but not affecting the BTC price. Yet.

[chessnut]

Btc is worth $10k alone on notary.. now add other use cases.. speculative is a special word here.

in theory, it has huge intrinsic value. but it needs the infrastructure, which it doesn't have right now. I cant think of a single use of bitcoin that can support a price of more than, say, $50 today. speculators exiting the market would crush that price support.

All speculators exiting at the same time would require that everyone recognizes at the same time that bitcoin has no value whatsoever. Of course 50 USD would be crushed. The probability of that happening right now is close to 0.
Millions of USD are being invested by angel investors in the infrastructure right now, hundreds of ATM are being planned and installed. The money is not going in the bitcoin for now but in its infrastructure.
When bitcoin price is going up, it increases the relative return on capital on companies and infrastructure investment as compared to direct bitcoin investment. Which means more interesting to invest in infrastructure. As the money is going to infrastructure, it is not going in BTC anymore which is depressing the price while investments are being made in infrastructure (current situation).

The last bull run has triggered massive investment decisions in the startups and infrastructure. This money is going "in" bitcoin but not affecting the BTC price. Yet.

I 100% agree with you MahaRamana. I was just discussing possible bear scenarios earlier.

[Davyd05]

This gradual upward trend should continue for another 18 hours at least, until the banks reopen on Tuesday morning in China.

After that, if there are no other bad news, or (better) the April 15 rumor is denied, perhaps this trend will continue (or accelerate) up to the range 3000--3500 CNY = 485--570 USD, where it was before the rumor  I do not see why it would rise beyond that.

If the April 15 rumor is confirmed, I expect another substantial drop, perhaps stretched out until that date.  It seems pointless to speculate beyond that, since the shape of the world will have changed.

momentum generally is enough to explain the why in regards to the over shooting. I think the rocket to 1200 was just excess momentum...I thought $1000 in June was uber bullish lol

I guess the holiday leaves us with a little bit more sideways but this time tomorrow we can debate what unfurls

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Todorius]

Btc is worth $10k alone on notary.. now add other use cases.. speculative is a special word here.

in theory, it has huge intrinsic value. but it needs the infrastructure, which it doesn't have right now. I cant think of a single use of bitcoin that can support a price of more than, say, $50 today. speculators exiting the market would crush that price support.

All speculators exiting at the same time would require that everyone recognizes at the same time that bitcoin has no value whatsoever. Of course 50 USD would be crushed. The probability of that happening right now is close to 0.
Millions of USD are being invested by angel investors in the infrastructure right now, hundreds of ATM are being planned and installed. The money is not going in the bitcoin for now but in its infrastructure.
When bitcoin price is going up, it increases the relative return on capital on companies and infrastructure investment as compared to direct bitcoin investment. Which means more interesting to invest in infrastructure. As the money is going to infrastructure, it is not going in BTC anymore which is depressing the price while investments are being made in infrastructure (current situation).

The last bull run has triggered massive investment decisions in the startups and infrastructure. This money is going "in" bitcoin but not affecting the BTC price. Yet.

Exactly. And it is only a matter of time until these massive investments into the infrastructure will reflect in the price. It is utterly ridiculous to think that the price will slowly grind down, never to recover again.

[fonzie]

Price will slowly grind down and never ever recover again. 1000$ was just a hoax.