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29921  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 26, 2014, 02:18:55 AM


1D ichimoku seems to indicate that if $625 is or has been broken during/after NEXT week, then the trend has reversed. 3D MACD would probably agree as well.

If your charts, lines, mac d's etc would actually be working you would be a billionaire by now. You still don't understand why you're not?
Wow I cannot even post a bullish TA now without getting flak?

FYI I have outperformed the bitcoin market by 10,000%, meaning if I bought and held I'd be up 400%in fiat value, but instead I'm up 40,000%. The problem was I started with a very small capital.

To me, that means that you have gotten 4,000 times return on your initial investment. 

Accordingly, if you started with $1,000, you now have $400,000. 

I wished I could figure out how to get those kinds of returns, but I do NOT want to work too hard... I'm thinking that there's gotta be some luck involved, also... .

It's a claimed 400X return, not a 4,000X return, but she pulls~ 10% fiat out every three months or so, so I suspect actual returns (which should be calculated to include those funds) are much lower. Correct me if I'm wrong, TERA.



Yeah... sorry for the contradiction.. I did mean 400x returns (not 4,000x)... 1,000 transformed into 400,000 = 400x

If someone is withdrawing every 3 months, too, then doesn't that cause less calculation regarding the initial capital... b/c anything withdrawn takes away from the initial investment, then thereafter, all you are playing with (after you retrieve your initial investment) is profits.. 

That would also be a nice position to be in, but if trading is your full time occupation (ONLY source of income), then the question may be is the amount that you have contained therein sustainable. 

I think that a lot of us would like to get to the point (if we are NOT already there) to be able to withdraw whatever percentage of income that we need our invested funds are generally earning more than we are needing to withdraw.. and best if that could be accomplished to a large degree passively rather than actively. 

Currently, I'm only at about 41 BTC, so I do NOT expect to get to that point in the BTC world, anytime soon.




By the way, in order to get to a fairly decent passive income stream from an investment , a lot of investment advisors suggest being able to withdraw from one's investment fund at less than 4% per year... with the assumption that on average the fund will be earning more than 4% per year. 

I calculate that having an investment fund of about $1 million would sustain about $3.3k per month income (withdrawal).  Of course if your investment happens to be earning, on average, more than 4% per year, then you could afford to withdraw more than 4% per year.. and still maintain the balance of the fund. 

Also, it is NOT really easy to live well on $3.3K per month.... so there may be desires to build up the investment fund somewhat higher or to figure out how to receive better than 4% per year earnings on that fund.... and yes needing to account for inflation too, can eat into one's spending power.

I am hoping to get better than 4% per year average returns with bitcoins.... but as I said above, my nest egg is currently, NOT very large in the BTC world.



29922  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 26, 2014, 01:48:53 AM


1D ichimoku seems to indicate that if $625 is or has been broken during/after NEXT week, then the trend has reversed. 3D MACD would probably agree as well.

If your charts, lines, mac d's etc would actually be working you would be a billionaire by now. You still don't understand why you're not?
Wow I cannot even post a bullish TA now without getting flak?

FYI I have outperformed the bitcoin market by 10,000%, meaning if I bought and held I'd be up 400%in fiat value, but instead I'm up 40,000%. The problem was I started with a very small capital.

To me, that means that you have gotten 4,000 times return on your initial investment. 

Accordingly, if you started with $1,000, you now have $400,000. 

I wished I could figure out how to get those kinds of returns, but I do NOT want to work too hard... I'm thinking that there's gotta be some luck involved, also... .

It's a claimed 400X return, not a 4,000X return, but she pulls~ 10% fiat out every three months or so, so I suspect actual returns (which should be calculated to include those funds) are much lower. Correct me if I'm wrong, TERA.



Yeah... sorry for the contradiction.. I did mean 400x returns (not 4,000x)... 1,000 transformed into 400,000 = 400x

If someone is withdrawing every 3 months, too, then doesn't that cause less calculation regarding the initial capital... b/c anything withdrawn takes away from the initial investment, then thereafter, all you are playing with (after you retrieve your initial investment) is profits.. 

That would also be a nice position to be in, but if trading is your full time occupation (ONLY source of income), then the question may be is the amount that you have contained therein sustainable. 

I think that a lot of us would like to get to the point (if we are NOT already there) to be able to withdraw whatever percentage of income that we need our invested funds are generally earning more than we are needing to withdraw.. and best if that could be accomplished to a large degree passively rather than actively. 

Currently, I'm only at about 41 BTC, so I do NOT expect to get to that point in the BTC world, anytime soon.


29923  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 26, 2014, 01:32:40 AM


1D ichimoku seems to indicate that if $625 is or has been broken during/after NEXT week, then the trend has reversed. 3D MACD would probably agree as well.

If your charts, lines, mac d's etc would actually be working you would be a billionaire by now. You still don't understand why you're not?
Wow I cannot even post a bullish TA now without getting flak?

FYI I have outperformed the bitcoin market by 10,000%, meaning if I bought and held I'd be up 400%in fiat value, but instead I'm up 40,000%. The problem was I started with a very small capital.

To me, that means that you have gotten 4,000 times return on your initial investment. 

Accordingly, if you started with $1,000, you now have $400,000. 

I wished I could figure out how to get those kinds of returns, but I do NOT want to work too hard... I'm thinking that there's gotta be some luck involved, also... .

Maybe he started with a very small capital because he didn't really believe in his own chart magic.



That could be....  Grin Grin Grin     

I really suck at trading and I will admit it.  However, I tend to be pretty decent if I attempt to trade at .1BTC at a time or some small amount like that, and then as soon as I up my trades to 1 to 5 BTC, then I get screwed.. left behind in one direction or another.   

So I kind of gave up on attempting to trade b/c I thought that trading was taking way too much work to be trying to carry out .1BTC at a time.. (b/c the pay off with that amount is way to small as compared with how much time it takes to watch the market).  I am sure that there are various tricks to make this less time consuming, but I have NOT yet figured it out.




29924  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 26, 2014, 01:21:36 AM
We think we have it tough...spend some time over at the auroracoin subforum...not fun

what's that supposed to mean? 
29925  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 26, 2014, 01:06:03 AM


1D ichimoku seems to indicate that if $625 is or has been broken during/after NEXT week, then the trend has reversed. 3D MACD would probably agree as well.

If your charts, lines, mac d's etc would actually be working you would be a billionaire by now. You still don't understand why you're not?
Wow I cannot even post a bullish TA now without getting flak?

FYI I have outperformed the bitcoin market by 10,000%, meaning if I bought and held I'd be up 400%in fiat value, but instead I'm up 40,000%. The problem was I started with a very small capital.

To me, that means that you have gotten 4,000 times return on your initial investment. 

Accordingly, if you started with $1,000, you now have $400,000. 

I wished I could figure out how to get those kinds of returns, but I do NOT want to work too hard... I'm thinking that there's gotta be some luck involved, also... .
29926  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2014, 07:50:36 PM
Quote
IRS Says Bitcoin is Property, Not Currency
In a notice, the IRS said that it generally would treat Bitcoin held by investors much like stock or other intangible property. If the virtual currency is held for investment, any gains would be treated as capital gains, meaning they could be subject to lower tax rates.
http://stream.wsj.com/story/markets/SS-2-5/SS-2-490994/

Probably willful confusion on the govenment side, just like the central bank reports.

It is not a currency, because it is not a generally used medium of exchange, ok, but it is money.

It is not virtual, it is complete, full, real, tangible money.

The expression "virtual currency" should really not be used for bitcoin, cryptocurrency is better, but the best name is cryptomoney.





Seems better for Bitcoin, at least at the moment, to be defined as an asset rather than as a currency b/c otherwise, it seems that government officials could want to squelch it, if it were defined as a currency. 

Also, defining bitcoin as an asset does NOT seem to stop people from trading or otherwise using bitcoin as a payment system. Doesn't seem like a problem... and there is some benefit that comes with a definition, even though the definition may NOT be the end of the story..





29927  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2014, 05:38:06 PM
Any predictions what will happen if this is true?
https://twitter.com/CanarslanEren/status/448418452701974528

This seems way too good to be true.... and too speculative to venture down the road of such a fantasy idea.

B/c it is such a fantasy and illogical, there would need to be a really clear and convincing explanation, otherwise the BTC market will crash.. as it does with any ambiguous news.
29928  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2014, 05:34:03 PM

Ya, there's kind of a which came first, the chicken or the egg.  To get more adoption we need the price to go up, but for the price to go up we need more adoption.

The Chicken.
(always the chicken)

The mutation happened during the "reception" of the animal (the first "chicken"), a animal that happened to lay eggs.
not-chicken-DNS + not chicken-DNS + randomized mutation-> chicken  ---> first egg.

Please do not use "chicken and egg", because it can easily be answered.



I'm glad that has been clarified b/c I was always wondering about that, as well as the question about what caused the chicken to cross the road.



29929  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2014, 04:50:38 PM
There's also the problem of the unknown effects of MTGOX's black hole.. I lost a lot of money which I can't put back into the real BTC system, and plenty of others did too... MTGox also lead a price increase at many points in the run up to 1000++... the price now is it real? It's beign supported by an order book with 12 million dollars assuming the next leading exchange is bitstamp? MTgox's Fake or Real orderbook showed a much higher bid sum.. now the leading exchange's bid sum is equivalent to a few houses in a nice neighborhood... for a worldwide currency

I don't know what's going to happen but the majority of me is convinced the markets have not yet adjusted to the MTGox demise and no one really knows what the price should be of BTC at this moment of time.  Crisis of confidence in exchanges is still prevalant.  BTC as a protocol is still sound but 10 -> 100$ was a big jump in 2013... 10$ -> 1240$... even down to 500$ levels I'm not sure we're at the real BTC price.

Gox really screwed this whole thing up

I thought that massive Chinese speculation and zero fees trading in China caused the quick movement up to $1240?  then uncertainties with the future of China's participation in BTC and also maybe Gox's failures deflated some of that speculation hype...
29930  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2014, 03:19:38 PM
Yes.  I understand humour. 

I'm sure you understand the concept, whether you have one...I'd say the jury's out given current evidence.


I'm getting the sense that you are quite insightful in your determinations about what is funny, how much so.... and other matters of such importance.
29931  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2014, 08:30:12 AM

Al contrare -  YOU look like a snowman to me.

Al contrare?

Au's brother?


Who or what is "Au"?   

The French for 'on the contrary' is au contraire...

Al is an abbreviated name...hence 'Al' is Au's brother.

All those blows to the head from BillyBob seem to have affected you.

Apparently, I did NOT know which language I was attempting my communication.... ... and seems that I may have been less than successful in my attempt to communicate with clarity... ... ... However, it also seems that at least I was in the ballpark sufficiently in which it seems like a fairly plausible explanation has come about... ... and NOW, I am more edumacated.... at least regarding that particular expression.... gratsi.....   Embarrassed


It was a pun/calembour/juego de palabras

perhaps you need to locate your

sense of humour/sens de l'humour/sentido del humor







Yes.  I understand humour. 
29932  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2014, 06:57:53 AM

Al contrare -  YOU look like a snowman to me.

Al contrare?

Au's brother?


Who or what is "Au"?  

The French for 'on the contrary' is au contraire...

Al is an abbreviated name...hence 'Al' is Au's brother.

All those blows to the head from BillyBob seem to have affected you.


Apparently, I did NOT know which language I was attempting my communication.... ... and seems that I may have been less than successful in my attempt to communicate with clarity... ... ... However, it also seems that at least I was in the ballpark sufficiently in which it seems like a fairly plausible explanation has come about... ... and NOW, I am more edumacated.... at least regarding that particular expression.... gratsi.....   Embarrassed



29933  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2014, 05:54:14 AM
ehhh, I don't like the way this looks, I said a few days ago I thought we had one more big dip left before we take off, and I still think that way.

<snip>

Wild guess on timeframes? <500 before the end of this month, >1000 by the end of April.

I did quite well accumulating between 500 and 450 the last 2 big dips, I'm still thinking we could see the mother of all triple bottoms before April hits.

of course, it's still just a feeling, a "wild guess".  Just be careful out there.

It is  the way I "feel" myself, one more big dip before we rise but a bigger and more agressive dip this time, a scary dip

Let's see

I totally agree about an upcoming big scary dip... but it I think it will dip upwards. A reverse dip. (very big and scary though)



This makes even more sense.. a flash crash... upwards.... hehehehe Shocked
29934  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2014, 05:53:03 AM
ehhh, I don't like the way this looks, I said a few days ago I thought we had one more big dip left before we take off, and I still think that way.

<snip>

Wild guess on timeframes? <500 before the end of this month, >1000 by the end of April.

I did quite well accumulating between 500 and 450 the last 2 big dips, I'm still thinking we could see the mother of all triple bottoms before April hits.

of course, it's still just a feeling, a "wild guess".  Just be careful out there.

yeah I agree tbh

Are you saying that the price will dip down between $500 and $450 before April... .. ?  I'm probably going to buy some more again well before that b/c I tend to think we are NOT dipping below $535... unless it is some kind of flash crash.. that may last less than an hour or so...   I'm guessing too... We're all kind of guessing... LOLZ
29935  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2014, 05:48:53 AM

Al contrare -  YOU look like a snowman to me.

Al contrare?

Au's brother?


Who or what is "Au"?   
29936  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2014, 12:44:26 AM
I have lot of fiat, don't particularly like this one unless it's breakout which I doubt it is yet.

The worst thing is that I bought few dozen BTC at 560s 2 days ago and then sold them at 550s last night thinking it's going down more, lol. Hate that shit. Hate btc vs usd.


You are gonna need a lot of fiat if you are playing like that...  Wink
29937  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2014, 12:36:31 AM
I just rubbed it in my local grocer's face that I no longer consider myself a lifetime Gold member of their establishment because [ .. ] they ignored my request to add Bitcoin.
There, I found another reason to be skeptic about the success of bitcoin: bitcoiners will shop at Walmart instead of at their local grocer, therefore they will eat less healthy food, therefore the genetic predisposition to believe in privately issued cryptocurrencies will soon be weeded out of mankind's gene pool by natural selection.
Wink

You are starting to make sense.   Cheesy   Grin
29938  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2014, 12:35:00 AM
....as per Metcalfe's law.

Useless chart without dinosaurs. I'm not sold yet.

Metcalfe was born in 1946. He *is* a dinosaur. Note that I am a dinosaur as well, so I have nothing against them except we smell a bit swampy.

Al contrare -  YOU look like a snowman to me.
29939  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 24, 2014, 12:51:03 PM
Whoa 8 blocks in 25 minutes.

Is that 200 BTC? 25 per block these days?
29940  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 24, 2014, 12:49:29 PM
Mooncake... Is your point that people could gravitate over to an IMF -type coint.. yeah right.. no one is really going to have confidence in any government sponsored coin... so they would definitely have to be manipulative,  tricky and coercive in order to get people to adopt it.. but NO real people are really gonna trust it.. so bitcoin will still win over some kind of government sponsored alt coin.

Look at it objectively. There are broadly 3 groups of people with regards to bitcoin perception.
1. Do not know or can't be bothered;
2. Aware of it and stay on the sideline; and
3. True believer.
Now, assign a % to each of the group based on their relative number proportion.

Suppose IMF introduces its cryptocurrency tomorrow, only (3) will not support. Is the % of (3) sufficiently significant to be meaningful?

FYI, in the 1940s, the closest to a global central currency called the bancor was proposed though not implemented.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bancor
This evolved to Special drawing rights in the 1970s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_drawing_rights
In the future, can there be a global central currency? What would be the driving factors? What would be its form?

I'd also imagine the sheep would go with the 'official' currency but don't see that as the endgame, it would still have to compete with bitcoin on running costs but banks don't seem to understand efficiency and even if they do create a competitive system it would just make it easier to trade fiat-btc. That amplifies the banks biggest problem, all Bitcoin has to do is keep working and all the banks have to do is not screw up and that bet's a no brainer.

Yeah... I agree and the banks are always gonna want to skim a little bit... but they cannot accept that a little bit might work and be o.k... but inevitably they are going to get greedy to skim more and more and people will figure it out...
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