Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ivanhoe]

The wall around 600 might be the same as the one around 710 a few days ago, i don't see that one around anymore.

[DougTanner]

Nice little cup and handle forming (or double bottom).

[KeyserSoze]

... Then the mammals moved into the space vacated by the land-based dinosaurs. By which logic, the flying dinosaurs, a proper food supply having returned, should be re-evolving and attacking us from the skies. Watch out.

Hooray for Morgie! Morganucodon "Morgie" is an early mammalian genus that lived during the Late Triassic. It is our ancestor, a survivor of the meteor strike which likely decimated the dinosaurs and allowed us to take over the planet. Thanks, Morgie!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morganucodon
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/New_Hall_on_the_Mall.html

[jackiedragon]

Something to read  

COINING  A NEW PHASE
The decentralised virtual currency Bitcoin could revolutionise finance, says UK life insurance actuary Peter McCrudden

The Actuary Online Edition: http://www.theactuary.com/archive/digital-edition/

[windjc]

Any predictions what will happen if this is true?
https://twitter.com/CanarslanEren/status/448418452701974528

If its true and assuming they refund people's bitcoins, then what will happen is that there will be a lot of happy people. Beyond that, not much will happen. A few people might sell some, but most people will hold. And overall community sentiment will be more positive. Probably not much difference in regards to price.

Yea sure! Goxxers who bought coins at 100-300 (huge volume happened in this range) will not sell for 500-600.
Rather they will sacrifice the 2x-6x profit to spare the anemic bid sum of $12 million: a typical perma-bull fantasy..

I am more than happy to make this bet with you: 5 BTC in escrow.

If Mtgox gives a 80%-100% refund in coins, the price of Bitcoin will not decrease on increased volume more than $100 less than the day of the refund within 2 weeks of the refund.

Lets not make it personal ego talk.
Why complicate things when I will make the bet with the market to buy lower!

That's fine. Its not about ego for me.

I just get so tired of hearing people constantly talk about how some "coinage" is going to be "dumped" on the market.

I have yet to see one real important example of this. EVER.

Yet, the same weaksauce FUD and paranoia continues to circulate over and over, the only thing changing is what "coinage" is supposedly going to be "dumped" today.

To be fair, this is just the flip side of the Gox coins being "removed" from the market. Most people around here made the case that this perception of decreased supply on the exchanges would inevitably cause a bull run. Now we potentially have a reversal of that situation. Will 100% get dumped? Of course not. Could 10% be dumped? That's conceivable -- why not? And 70,000 coins in a market where the vast majority are hoarded is nothing to sneeze at. I'm just playing with hypotheticals here.

Nope. 10% of it is not going to be dumped. People don't go around dumping coins. There is not enough liquidity.

I will say it again. This "hypothetical" is just the 761st in a long line of "dumping" hypothesis from different heists, events, etc. etc.

These dumps never happen.

[roslinpl]

Explanation

Very optimistic IMO.

April might be very good for bitcoiners and a price of a bitcoin. As things settled a bit after MtGox and others ...

[TERA]

1D ichimoku seems to indicate that if $625 is or has been broken during/after NEXT week, then the trend has reversed. 3D MACD would probably agree as well.

If your charts, lines, mac d's etc would actually be working you would be a billionaire by now. You still don't understand why you're not?

Wow I cannot even post a bullish TA now without getting flak?

FYI I have outperformed the bitcoin market by 10,000%, meaning if I bought and held I'd be up 400%in fiat value, but instead I'm up 40,000%. The problem was I started with a very small capital.

[chessnut]

  Dont worry TERA. Have we not been waiting for the bearish sentiment? It's really coming out at the moment, especially after a convincing medium term reversal. Bull trap this, flash crash that. everyone wants $300 bitcoin.

[KeyserSoze]

Dont worry TERA. Have we not been waiting for the bearish sentiment? It's really coming out at the moment, especially after a convincing medium term reversal. Bull trap this, flash crash that. everyone wants $300 bitcoin.

30-day, though rocky, is essentially same price now. About time for it to head up.

[Adrian-x]

People should only invest in Bitcoin for 1 of 2 reasons.
1) you understand these intellectuals position of how money functions and can directly relate it to Bitcoin.

I think I understand how money works.  I understand in particular that issuing new money transfers real wealth from the society that uses it (not just those individuals who own or use it) to  those who issue it (and "of course" keep some of it for themselves).

Today governments don't issue the money it's created by Fractional reserve banking and a government promise to pay interest on the Money the central bank creates. If this idea works, everything is good in the world and we'll flourish. I'm not convinced it works at all, or TPTB know either the link I provided illustrates how it should work not how it works. Gold never became money because it was evenly distributed, it has a past more corrupt and distorted than Bitcoin.

You are overlooking Bitcoin as a " risk distribution virus"  it is a distributed socialized voluntary p2p wealth preservation system.

It will hardly "perserve wealth".  It will transfer a lot of wealth from some people to other people.  Who will be the winners and who will be the losers depends on whether it will succeed or fail.  

I think you over estimate the wealth transfer, to me the value is in the protocol, if I was to take maximum utility out of the protocol, (Bitcoin becomes the default world currency) then the utility it provides is worth somewhere in the realm of 3- 6% of my total social contribution (salary)per year. (The utility ascribed to inflation and bank service charges of my total wage) other benefits aside. From there I can estimate how much to risk and how much benefit it provided based on my total social contribution.

 I withdraw my investment deflating the Bitcoin price and buy Bitcoin to keep the price up, all the while maintaining a steady growth, (nothing out of the ordinary in the typical housing or investment industry today ) there is more wealth transfer in miscalculated government funds and fines paid by banks for laundering drug cartel funds, that is happening in Bitcoin.

If I speculate and hold Bitcoin, I have no guarantee that the utility will ever manifest, I take risk that future adopters won't mind giving me this disproportionate benefit in wealth (you are correct that will be problematic) we have seen that it isn't as big a problem as one may think as $5 in investment today equates to $500,000 and people are still ok with that.  (Either investors are the greater fool or see value) but Bitcoin only grows if new users find utility in the protocol, if we are all greater fools the value falls to the base utility, for the average user.
I believe the people who hold large balances of Bitcoin have figured out they risk collapsing the system by holding out for two long. They have to let it flow, if any large balance cashed out at the price today it would fall, there are a lot of people can crash it to $100 today, they know because there isn't enough energy for a huge transfer of wealth unless the price is fixed, or the network grows.      

[Bitcoin] it isn't destructive it's like choosing to live in civilization as opposed to living like a self sufficient cave man under the control of the dinosaurs, once you try it the benefits are obvious.

Terrible analogy.  "Civilization" means government, taxes, laws, police, and, yes, banks.  Those inventions are basically good, although they can break down and get corrupted, and we must constantly struggle to try to keep them working as intended.

In contrast, the anarchic pipedream of an unregulated global economy without banks and outside the reach of governments, laws and police is not only impossible to succeed, but would be a barbaric nightmare if it did.  How many MtGOXes will have to pass before bitcoiners understand that?

I don't define civilization as "government, taxes, laws, police, and, banks" those may be functional or dysfunctional institutions used to make a civilisation robust, but a civilisation is more a "revolution consisted in the development of the domestication of plants and animals and the development of new sedentary lifestyles which allowed economies of scale and productive surpluses"

You make the claim "impossible to succeed" with no justification or consideration for the end goal of cooperation to produce surpluses for the benefits of all members.

DinosaursAnimals from the Cretaceous Period are on the verge of extinction and higher levels of consciousness is about to evolve in smaller mammals.

Dinosaurs did not become extinct, they are called "birds" now.  Considering that dinosaurs can fly faster, better, higher and longer than any mammal, one could argue that they just left the inferior parts of the environment to the inferior life forms.  

It is not clear yet what killed all the other non-flying dinosaurs, and why the ancestors of the mammals (which were smaller than mice, AFAIK) survived.  I am not aware of any evidence that they were more intelligent.  Perhaps it was a multi-year cold spell that killed the non-flying dinosaurs, and the pre-mammals survived only because they had better body temperature regulation (oops, sorry for the dirty word  ) and lived off insects which lived off fungi that lived off the corpses of the dinosaurs.  Or whatever.

Just replace my use of Dinosaurs with large animals from the Cretaceous Period, I'm not saying early mammals were intelligent, being small they were just more adaptable and evolved into beings that are now more conscious (and I still see lacking evidence of intelligence) The big  Animals from the Cretaceous Period could not adapt, only those whose evolutionary path shrunk them in size and gave up dominating the ecosystem survived.

[windjc]

1D ichimoku seems to indicate that if $625 is or has been broken during/after NEXT week, then the trend has reversed. 3D MACD would probably agree as well.

If your charts, lines, mac d's etc would actually be working you would be a billionaire by now. You still don't understand why you're not?

Wow I cannot even post a bullish TA now without getting flak?

FYI I have outperformed the bitcoin market by 10,000%, meaning if I bought and held I'd be up 400%in fiat value, but instead I'm up 40,000%. The problem was I started with a very small capital.

WOW! How did I miss TERA's bullish post? Was I asleep?  When did this happen?



This is like spending 2 years in a forest tracking bigfoot. Then you go to take a piss and when you come back your friend, who just joined you for the weekend, took a picture of bigfoot.

[MAbtc]

Nope. 10% of it is not going to be dumped. People don't go around dumping coins. There is not enough liquidity.

I will say it again. This "hypothetical" is just the 761st in a long line of "dumping" hypothesis from different heists, events, etc. etc.

These dumps never happen.

I'm not saying 70,000 coins would literally be dumped on the market, nor would they be sold at once. But certainly some would be dumped, some set in limit orders. It seems absurdly silly to suggest that 100% will be held. Are you serious when you say things like "people don't go around dumping coins?" I'm not even commenting on the practice of "dumping" -- just noting that this would in theory affect supply on the exchanges.

[roslinpl]

Dont worry TERA. Have we not been waiting for the bearish sentiment? It's really coming out at the moment, especially after a convincing medium term reversal. Bull trap this, flash crash that. everyone wants $300 bitcoin.

30-day, though rocky, is essentially same price now. About time for it to head up.

I still believe this situation shows how strong bitcoin is!

And we are all pretty sure that price will go up one day.

[pjviitas]

We think we have it tough...spend some time over at the auroracoin subforum...not fun

[windjc]

Nope. 10% of it is not going to be dumped. People don't go around dumping coins. There is not enough liquidity.

I will say it again. This "hypothetical" is just the 761st in a long line of "dumping" hypothesis from different heists, events, etc. etc.

These dumps never happen.

I'm not saying 70,000 coins would literally be dumped on the market, nor would they be sold at once. But certainly some would be dumped, some set in limit orders. It seems absurdly silly to suggest that 100% will be held. Are you serious when you say things like "people don't go around dumping coins?" I'm not even commenting on the practice of "dumping" -- just noting that this would in theory affect supply on the exchanges.

Oh, what you are talking about is that some of the coins will be traded again. OF COURSE! They might add a little liquidity to the market. Some people might want their fiat and run far from bitcoin, but others might be so happy to have bitcoins lost be found that they buy more.

You were insinuating that 70,000 coins might hit the market on the sell side. That is pretty much what you said.

I'm saying its not going to effect the price much at all, if at any. And that there is just as much argument for while it would make the price go up as there is to why it would make the price go down.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday March 26

Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-03-26, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3596 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 589 USD.



The red and green strokes are actual hourly prices (Huobi on the left, Bitstamp on the right).  The olive-gray vertical band was inserted to fill 2 hours that are missing in bitcoinwisdom's plot.  The magenta square at right is the above prediction.  The blue square next to it is the last prediction (see below). The light blue-gray squares are the older predictions.   The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. On the Huobi plot, the size of the Albertosaurus under each dot indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = V_h/V_d, where V_h is Huobi's mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V_d is Huobi's daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date.  The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater.   The size of each blue dot (on both plots) is proportional to its reliability weight W, computed from Huobi's ratio S.  The brown lines on Huobi's plot are trends fitted a posteriori to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the Huobi prediction above.

Once more, Huobi saw relatively high volume at the Slumber Time (~1020 BTC/h, instead of the usual 50-200 BTC), possibly due to arbitrage. Today's data point too has nearly zero weight (S = 17.5, W = 0.002).  Even though the last two data points are nearly useless I tentatively assumed a straight-line trend fitted to the last three ones by weighted least squares:  A + B*(d-d0), where d is the day of the month, d0 = 23, A = 3468.97, B = 42.42.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.11 CNY/USD (it was 6.10, 6.11, 6.13, 6.20 at the last four Slumber Times).

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-03-25, 04:15 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-03-25, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~15 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3525 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3561 CNY
Error: 36 CNY (~6 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 576 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 583 USD
Error: 7 USD

NOTE: Even a broken clock gets the correct time twice a day.  That's not fair.

[MAbtc]

You were insinuating that 70,000 coins might hit the market on the sell side. That is pretty much what you said.

Yes it is, and I'm still saying it. Without considering anything else (e.g. positive sentiment or regained confidence), I am simply commenting on the supply-side dynamic. I was commenting primarily on the logic that the coins being removed from the market in the first place was a bullish indication. That was more or less the consensus around here.

[ShroomsKit]

1D ichimoku seems to indicate that if $625 is or has been broken during/after NEXT week, then the trend has reversed. 3D MACD would probably agree as well.

If your charts, lines, mac d's etc would actually be working you would be a billionaire by now. You still don't understand why you're not?

Wow I cannot even post a bullish TA now without getting flak?

FYI I have outperformed the bitcoin market by 10,000%, meaning if I bought and held I'd be up 400%in fiat value, but instead I'm up 40,000%. The problem was I started with a very small capital.

Funny how there is always a problem.

[windjc]

You were insinuating that 70,000 coins might hit the market on the sell side. That is pretty much what you said.

Yes it is, and I'm still saying it. Without considering anything else (e.g. positive sentiment or regained confidence), I am simply commenting on the supply-side dynamic. I was commenting primarily on the logic that the coins being removed from the market in the first place was a bullish indication. That was more or less the consensus around here.

Sorry, I disagree.  The whole MTGOX debacle was a bearish consensus reflected in price. If it were so bullish, our prices would be back in the 700 or 800 range now that those coins are "lost" and the albatross is dead.

Your consensus might have been that the coins being lost were bullish. But that's you. Plenty of people were/are talking about "dumping" from theives, loss of bitcoin moral, unsafe exchanges, and other forms of pain and despair.

Very few were talking about how great this all was for the price of bitcoin.


EDIT: Curious. Looks like we can see forum sentiment on this issue already: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=530672.0

[pdawg]