Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[shmadz]

ehhh, I don't like the way this looks, I said a few days ago I thought we had one more big dip left before we take off, and I still think that way.

<snip>

Wild guess on timeframes? <500 before the end of this month, >1000 by the end of April.

I did quite well accumulating between 500 and 450 the last 2 big dips, I'm still thinking we could see the mother of all triple bottoms before April hits.

of course, it's still just a feeling, a "wild guess".  Just be careful out there.

[spooderman]

ehhh, I don't like the way this looks, I said a few days ago I thought we had one more big dip left before we take off, and I still think that way.

<snip>

Wild guess on timeframes? <500 before the end of this month, >1000 by the end of April.

I did quite well accumulating between 500 and 450 the last 2 big dips, I'm still thinking we could see the mother of all triple bottoms before April hits.

of course, it's still just a feeling, a "wild guess".  Just be careful out there.

yeah I agree tbh

[boumalo]

ehhh, I don't like the way this looks, I said a few days ago I thought we had one more big dip left before we take off, and I still think that way.

<snip>

Wild guess on timeframes? <500 before the end of this month, >1000 by the end of April.

I did quite well accumulating between 500 and 450 the last 2 big dips, I'm still thinking we could see the mother of all triple bottoms before April hits.

of course, it's still just a feeling, a "wild guess".  Just be careful out there.

It is  the way I "feel" myself, one more big dip before we rise but a bigger and more agressive dip this time, a scary dip

Let's see

[chriswilmer]

ehhh, I don't like the way this looks, I said a few days ago I thought we had one more big dip left before we take off, and I still think that way.

<snip>

Wild guess on timeframes? <500 before the end of this month, >1000 by the end of April.

I did quite well accumulating between 500 and 450 the last 2 big dips, I'm still thinking we could see the mother of all triple bottoms before April hits.

of course, it's still just a feeling, a "wild guess".  Just be careful out there.

It is  the way I "feel" myself, one more big dip before we rise but a bigger and more agressive dip this time, a scary dip

Let's see

I totally agree about an upcoming big scary dip... but it I think it will dip upwards. A reverse dip. (very big and scary though)

[Flatulenters]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYalp3Wyw50 

[shmadz]

ehhh, I don't like the way this looks, I said a few days ago I thought we had one more big dip left before we take off, and I still think that way.

<snip>

Wild guess on timeframes? <500 before the end of this month, >1000 by the end of April.

I did quite well accumulating between 500 and 450 the last 2 big dips, I'm still thinking we could see the mother of all triple bottoms before April hits.

of course, it's still just a feeling, a "wild guess".  Just be careful out there.

It is  the way I "feel" myself, one more big dip before we rise but a bigger and more agressive dip this time, a scary dip

Let's see

I totally agree about an upcoming big scary dip... but it I think it will dip upwards. A reverse dip. (very big and scary though)

upward dips can be scary indeed.

unless u b hodlin'

[BitChick]

Is it weird that I am happy to see all the pictures of trains again?  It might be a bit premature but they make me smile anyways.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCNrs23r4DA

 

Nothing better than seeing the train live: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lutNECOZFw

I dont like this video because the train stops and reverses!

NO NO NO!

But dayum those are fine trains! OMG!

I was thinking the same thing when the train started going in reverse.  Some people on this board get excited when the "train goes in reverse" too though so I guess it is still appropriate.

I found these videos to really get things going!  The best part is that they are Chinese trains!  That should help us!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbd8vgEFCE8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBGCus9zZ30

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TERA]

Buy silver and you can actually hold coins with pictures of trains on them.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday March 25

Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-03-25, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3525 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 576 USD.



The red and green strokes are actual hourly prices (Huobi on the left, Bitstamp on the right).  The olive-gray vertical band was inserted to fill 2 hours that are missing in bitcoinwisdom's plot.  The magenta square at right is the above prediction.  The blue square next to it is the last prediction (see below). The light blue-gray squares are the older predictions.   The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. On the Huobi plot, the size of the Albertosaurus under each dot indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = V_h/V_d, where V_h is Huobi's mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V_d is Huobi's daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date.  The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater.   The size of each blue dot (on both plots) is proportional to its reliability weight W, computed from Huobi's ratio S.  The brown lines on Huobi's plot are trends fitted a posteriori to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the Huobi prediction above.

Huobi trade on Monday was very low during the day; in that period the price fell ~90 CNY but then recovered to its previous value, ~3460 CNY. During the night the price increased by ~100 CNY, with relatively high volume at the Slumber Time (~1260 BTC/h, instead of the usual 50-200 BTC).  Presumably the price hike began outside China and was carried to Huobi by arbitrage, without significant resistance.  The extra volume during the late night hours may have been entirely arbitrage. 

Anyway, because of that heavy nightly traffic, today's data point has nearly zero weight (S = 17.0, W = 0.003).  Following the Method strictly, the trend now should be undefined and it would be better not to make any prediction.  To avoid disappointing the Method's fans, I tentatively assumed a break before Sunday's data point, and a new straight-line trend defined by the las two data points:  A + B*(d-d0), where d is the day of the month, d0 = 23, A = 3469, B = 28.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.12 CNY/USD (it was 6.09, 6.20, 6.15, 6.11 at the last four Slumber Times).

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Monday 2014-03-24, 05:37 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Monday 2014-03-24, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~13 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3316 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3497 CNY
Error: 181 CNY (~29 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 541 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 572 USD
Error: 31 USD

NOTE: Aw, shucks!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):

                    !   Sun !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !   Sun !    Mon !                     
EXCHANGE            ! 03/16 !  03/17 !  03/18 !  03/19 !  03/20 !  03/21 !  03/22 ! 03/23 !  03/24 ! Currencies considered

BSTP Bitstamp       |  3.30 |   9.17 |  14.91 |   7.08 |  10.91 |  22.42 |  13.61 |  6.10 |  13.67 | USD(w,c)             
BFNX Bitfinex       |  1.90 |   3.76 |   7.74 |   3.44 |   8.10 |  19.20 |   6.73 |  4.83 |   9.28 | USD(w,c)             
BTCE BTC-e          |  2.62 |   3.90 |   7.91 |   5.48 |   7.85 |  10.43 |   4.14 |  2.43 |   6.35 | EUR,RUR,USD(w)(1)   
LAKE LakeBTC        |  3.30 |   3.05 |   3.19 |   3.24 |   4.17 |   3.57 |   3.70 |  4.01 |   3.48 | USD(c)               
LBTC LocalBitcoins  |  0.32 |   1.08 |   0.99 |   1.08 |   0.89 |   0.89 |   0.51 |  0.36 |   0.99 | (c)(3)               
KRAK Kraken         |  0.16 |   0.48 |   0.86 |   0.58 |   0.74 |   1.12 |   0.75 |  0.29 |   0.88 | EUR,USD(c)(2)       
ANEX AsiaNexgen     |  0.93 |   1.02 |   1.00 |   0.88 |   0.67 |   0.87 |   0.39 |  0.52 |   0.78 | HKD(c)               
BTDE Bitcoin.DE     |  0.12 |   0.40 |   0.42 |   0.35 |   0.38 |   0.42 |   0.39 |  0.18 |   0.48 | EUR(w,c)             
CVIX CaVirtEx       |  0.06 |   0.10 |   0.10 |   0.13 |   0.40 |   0.14 |   0.12 |  0.08 |   0.34 | CAD(w,c)             
BCUX Bitcurex       |   .   |    .   |   0.32 |   0.15 |   0.41 |   0.18 |   0.16 |  0.07 |   0.23 | PLN(c)               
VWOX VirWox         |  0.10 |   0.14 |   0.14 |   0.14 |   0.11 |   0.13 |   0.12 |  0.15 |   0.14 | SLL(c)               
BCTR BitcoinCentral |  0.01 |   0.07 |   0.10 |   0.06 |   0.08 |   0.12 |   0.06 |  0.02 |   0.09 | EUR(c)               
CPBX CampBX         |  0.02 |   0.07 |   0.32 |   0.06 |   0.72 |   0.07 |   0.07 |  0.05 |   0.07 | USD(w,c)             
BSCZ BitStock.CZ    |   .   |   0.01 |   0.01 |    .   |   0.01 |    .   |    .   |   .   |    .   | CZK(c)               

SUBTOTAL            | 12.84 |  23.25 |  38.01 |  22.67 |  35.44 |  59.56 |  30.75 | 19.09 |  36.78 |                     

OKCO OKCoin         | 40.00 |  59.00 |  82.70 |  95.00 |  58.30 | 190.00 |  79.10 | 35.90 |  82.30 | CNY(w)               
HUBI Huobi          | 27.00 |  63.80 |  84.10 |  62.40 |  48.10 | 154.00 |  53.60 | 18.00 |  73.60 | CNY(w)               
BTCC BTC-China      |  1.51 |   2.74 |   3.70 |   3.79 |   2.85 |   9.79 |   3.06 |  1.57 |   4.84 | CNY(w,c)             
BTER Bter           |  0.28 |   0.34 |   0.27 |   0.35 |   0.36 |   0.66 |   0.32 |  0.28 |   0.47 | CNY(w)               

SUBTOTAL            | 68.79 | 125.88 | 170.77 | 161.54 | 109.61 | 354.45 | 136.08 | 55.75 | 161.21 |                     

TOTAL               | 81.63 | 149.13 | 208.78 | 184.21 | 145.05 | 414.01 | 166.83 | 74.84 | 197.99 |                     


NOTES:

(1) The USD volumes for BTC-e obtained from Bitcoincharts are consistently smaller than those obtained through Bitcoinwisdom. Using the latter.
(2) Bitcoinwisdom lists only BTC/EUR for Kraken, not BTC/USD.
(3) Bitcoincharts lists Localbitcoins with many currencies, most of which appear to have negligible volume.  This line counts only AUD,BRL,CAD,CZK,DKK,EUR,GBP,USD.

All numbers were collected by hand or copy-paste from the sites http://bitcoinwisdom.com (w) and http://bitcoincharts.com (c). Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that the same period may span part of day 01/14 or part of day 01/16 in your local time zone.)

WARNING: There are at least five additional large exchanges in China that are not on this table because they are not covered by Bitcoinwisdom: FxBTC, ChBTC, BTCTrade, BTC100, and BTC38.  Together they may have as much volume as Huobi or OKCoin.

[pdawg]

[JayJuanGee]

Al contrare -  YOU look like a snowman to me.

Al contrare?

Au's brother?

Who or what is "Au"?   

[JayJuanGee]

ehhh, I don't like the way this looks, I said a few days ago I thought we had one more big dip left before we take off, and I still think that way.

<snip>

Wild guess on timeframes? <500 before the end of this month, >1000 by the end of April.

I did quite well accumulating between 500 and 450 the last 2 big dips, I'm still thinking we could see the mother of all triple bottoms before April hits.

of course, it's still just a feeling, a "wild guess".  Just be careful out there.

yeah I agree tbh

Are you saying that the price will dip down between $500 and $450 before April... .. ?  I'm probably going to buy some more again well before that b/c I tend to think we are NOT dipping below $535... unless it is some kind of flash crash.. that may last less than an hour or so...   I'm guessing too... We're all kind of guessing... LOLZ

[JayJuanGee]

ehhh, I don't like the way this looks, I said a few days ago I thought we had one more big dip left before we take off, and I still think that way.

<snip>

Wild guess on timeframes? <500 before the end of this month, >1000 by the end of April.

I did quite well accumulating between 500 and 450 the last 2 big dips, I'm still thinking we could see the mother of all triple bottoms before April hits.

of course, it's still just a feeling, a "wild guess".  Just be careful out there.

It is  the way I "feel" myself, one more big dip before we rise but a bigger and more agressive dip this time, a scary dip

Let's see

I totally agree about an upcoming big scary dip... but it I think it will dip upwards. A reverse dip. (very big and scary though)

This makes even more sense.. a flash crash... upwards.... hehehehe

[creekbore]

Al contrare -  YOU look like a snowman to me.

Al contrare?

Au's brother?

Who or what is "Au"?   

The French for 'on the contrary' is au contraire...

Al is an abbreviated name...hence 'Al' is Au's brother.

All those blows to the head from BillyBob seem to have affected you.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Al contrare -  YOU look like a snowman to me.

Al contrare?

Au's brother?

Who or what is "Au"?  

The French for 'on the contrary' is au contraire...

Al is an abbreviated name...hence 'Al' is Au's brother.

All those blows to the head from BillyBob seem to have affected you.

Apparently, I did NOT know which language I was attempting my communication.... ... and seems that I may have been less than successful in my attempt to communicate with clarity... ... ... However, it also seems that at least I was in the ballpark sufficiently in which it seems like a fairly plausible explanation has come about... ... and NOW, I am more edumacated.... at least regarding that particular expression.... gratsi.....