fot those not looking in the very long term looks like a sell asap
yes - should see a large volume capitulation and snap back to 660 , or else we go straight to 266... im calling a bottom |
|
|
|
|
530 should hold.. looks like a buy here on bitstamp. gl
|
|
|
|
Yes for someone who has USD in MTGox, this arbitrage actually makes sense.
The process is
1) Trade MTGoxUSD for MTGoxBTC on MTGox
2) Sell MTGoxBTC for real BTC on Bitcoin Builder
3) Sell real BTC for real USD on another exchange
MTGoxBTC/USD rate 111.3
Bitcoin Builder bid MTGoxBTC/BTC 0.5
Bitstamp BTC/USD 577.5
So for 100 MTGox USD on can get 100*0.5*577.5/113.3 = 254.85 real USD. There will be a few % loss in fees spreads etc., but really!
As for depositing USD or EUR etc. into MTGox to do this, not a good idea because in the time that it takes for MTGox to credit the the MTGoxUSD the BitcoinBulider rate could easily plunge to a more realistic 0.1 MTGoxBTC/BTC or even less 0.01, 0.00 etc. Some people are bidding well below 1 real satoshi for a MTGoxBTC.
exactly - so what is going on? this is getting weirder and weirder. maybe BitcoinBuilder credit issues? what is the going rate otc for goxBTC? For starters volume. Try dumping say 10000 MTGoxBTC (a recent 4 hour volume on MTGox) on the BitcoinBuilder bid and the price will drop to a more realistic 0.00001 MTGoxBTC/BTC. A few small players may be able to get out this way but that is about it. if this is the reason, then it will only take a small arbitrage trade to push rate to .20 |
|
|
|
Yes for someone who has USD in MTGox, this arbitrage actually makes sense.
The process is
1) Trade MTGoxUSD for MTGoxBTC on MTGox
2) Sell MTGoxBTC for real BTC on Bitcoin Builder
3) Sell real BTC for real USD on another exchange
MTGoxBTC/USD rate 111.3
Bitcoin Builder bid MTGoxBTC/BTC 0.5
Bitstamp BTC/USD 577.5
So for 100 MTGox USD on can get 100*0.5*577.5/113.3 = 254.85 real USD. There will be a few % loss in fees spreads etc., but really!
As for depositing USD or EUR etc. into MTGox to do this, not a good idea because in the time that it takes for MTGox to credit the the MTGoxUSD the BitcoinBulider rate could easily plunge to a more realistic 0.1 MTGoxBTC/BTC or even less 0.01, 0.00 etc. Some people are bidding well below 1 real satoshi for a MTGoxBTC.
exactly - so what is going on? this is getting weirder and weirder. maybe BitcoinBuilder credit issues? what is the going rate otc for goxBTC? |
|
|
|
i made a withdrawal 30 minutes ago. no problems
As far as I know this is not affecting everybody, and doesn't seem to be affecting anything sub 10 btc or $XXXX To try and get a better picture, how much approx did you withdraw? only 2btc |
|
|
|
|
i made a withdrawal 30 minutes ago. no problems
|
|
|
|
Why weren't we seeing this demand for trading engine halt when you only couldn't withdraw fiat (the entire second half of last year)?
You don't care when the exchange rate is artificially inflated, only when it is artificially deflated?
there was nothing artificial when it was inflated. it should be halted if in fact gox is insolvent. |
|
|
|
this is the 5th time.. "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice Mission Accomplished" George W Bush
i have never been at gox and my holdings have been damaged!how? |
|
|
|
Just a question that i would like to have some people that do this answer. We all know MtGox is trying to crash the bitcoin value trying to save their own asses. At the time of writing the difference between Gox and other exchanges is 440 USD ( 73% under other exchanges ).
My question is, why do you go with that exchange, panic sell your bitcoins for fiat that you will most likely never get back anyway, the chances of getting bitcoins out are a bit higher i think, but still extremely low. The only reason MtGox is manipulating their market is so that a massive amount of people will open up new accounts and dump loads of fiat on their bank account to buy cheap bitcoins, then they will open up the exchange again and the value will bounce back and voila, they just made a lot of money out of a manifactured panic.
Why would you sell your coins at a 73% discount to somebody? Why would you knowingly help them achieve panic?
Maybe it's just that you're trying to make a quick profit yourself somehow?
- It hurts your portfolio.
- It hurts the bitcoin economy/trust in general.
I'd love to have some insight into why people do this.
what if I told you mtgox does not have enough BTCs? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=469628.0 |
|
|
|
|
this is the 5th time.. "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice Mission Accomplished" George W Bush
|
|
|
|
|
no need to - bitcoinbuilder , gets the coins out for you!
|
|
|
|
|
currently goxBTC is trading at .5 realBTC on bitcoinbuilder, but goxBTC/bitstampBTC is around .20 (110/575)
whats is going on here? either bitstampBTC < realBTC , or goxUSD is equal to 2 times realUSD?
am I missing something? cant someone with USD on gox, buy BTC and then sell it on bitcoinbuilder for a cool 100% profit?
|
|
|
|
|
really weird that goxBTC is going up on bitcoinbuilder, but gox discount to bitstamp is dropping..
|
|
|
|
Sorry if this is a dumb question, but if people buy bitcoins on Gox now at $100, they are actually buying bitcoins aren't they?
It is off blockchain so there is no way of knowing if Gox are naked shorting...
no they are buying goxBTC which may or may not be thin air. |
|
|
|
So you cant really be sure of your position until the standard 6 confirmations.
Also a miner can game the system by front-running trades after solving a block.
Also there are many "latency arbitrage" "alpha" strategies that can be used to game the system, since it is possible to to make a trade in the past based on "future" information.
This is why Decentralized Distributed Exchanges for liquid assets is nearly impossible to implement.
I've read this whole thread and everything about XCP and still have not found details technical info on how the matching works, does it use "atomic transactions" ?
I have some ideas on solutions, PM if interested.. im a 15 year high frequency trading C++ coders. cheers
Hello, not sure if I can help but I've made some trades on the DEX. Actually I've encountered a simultaneous trade with someone else (within the same block) he was first and since he took the whole order I end up with an unfilled buy order. I think that your are sure of your position as soon as the block is mined (and as long as there is no fork in BTC, which is quite rare) About the latency arbitrages you're talking about, I have no clue but I'm really interested about this possibility and how to avoid it. I've also red that DEXes are not (and will probably never be) suited for HFT (I remember Vitalik saying that somewhere in this thread) I have no trading vocabulary but I see the DEX as a low frequency (10m) trading engine. Which is already quite a nice innovation ! Trust me if
So you cant really be sure of your position until the standard 6 confirmations.
Also a miner can game the system by front-running trades after solving a block.
Also there are many "latency arbitrage" "alpha" strategies that can be used to game the system, since it is possible to to make a trade in the past based on "future" information.
This is why Decentralized Distributed Exchanges for liquid assets is nearly impossible to implement.
I've read this whole thread and everything about XCP and still have not found details technical info on how the matching works, does it use "atomic transactions" ?
I have some ideas on solutions, PM if interested.. im a 15 year high frequency trading C++ coders. cheers
Hello, not sure if I can help but I've made some trades on the DEX. Actually I've encountered a simultaneous trade with someone else (within the same block) he was first and since he took the whole order I end up with an unfilled buy order. I think that your are sure of your position as soon as the block is mined (and as long as there is no fork in BTC, which is quite rare) About the latency arbitrages you're talking about, I have no clue but I'm really interested about this possibility and how to avoid it. I've also red that DEXes are not (and will probably never be) suited for HFT (I remember Vitalik saying that somewhere in this thread) I have no trading vocabulary but I see the DEX as a low frequency (10m) trading engine. Which is already quite a nice innovation ! This is an interesting concept but I don't expect widespread adoption of XCP. First of all, its use is very limited. I don't think it will win over a single professional trader ever. In this time and age of HFT (high frequency trading) in most markets, especially the very liquid ones, where latencies are counted by the microseconds, the pace of 1 block per 10 minutes is not really going to cut it. This alone already rules out liquid markets like FX, MM, rates equities and commodities, where 99.999% of the trades are. Low Lack liquidity in XCP will translate to huge spreads and slippage from hell, making it unprofitable to trade through XCP, which in turn hurts liquidity. You can't break that vicious circle unless you can compete with the lightning speed and market depth at the exchanges. Unfortunately I don't see that ever happening. And oh, the exchange fees in these very liquid markets are negligible, especially for high volumes, so no advantage for XCP there either. Mind you I'm not dismissing XCP, it's fantastic technology and it will have many novel applications. But I just don't think it's going to have the same level of impact as bitcoin, which was truly a paradigm shift. I hope I'm proven wrong though!  Blockchain-based technologies in general, whether BTC, MSC, XCP or Ethereum, will not be used for HFT. The scalability is simply not there for that. OpenTransactions servers, on the other hand, are excellent for HFT. Blockchains are for higher-value transactions and settlement. Forget about HFT. Its all about latency arbitrage. If I have the fastest quotes feeds and the fastest access to exchanges, then there are specific techniques that enable trading with nearly 100% profitability. Goldman Sacks and JPMorgan, are on a streak of hundreds of days in a row with no losses in their "prop program trading book". In this case, its much worse, because you can decide to take the trade or give it to the original trader, depending on what happened after the trade. So you can rewrite history, it doesn't matter how frequent the trades are. Also, if this DEX get big and there is a huge trade during a bitcoin "flash crash", I can guarantee that some group of miners/traders will front run and create a fork. DEX can only work if you only allow trading on confirmed blocks. So basically orders can only be matched against orders that have 6 confirmations, and then you need to wait another 6 confirmations to "clear" the trade. One idea (off the top of my head) is to have a 6 confirmation pause between "trading sessions", no trading allowed during the pause. |
|
|
|
Can someone please explain what happens when two people try to sell at the bid price at the same time? Who gets the fill?
This is fundamental issue with Decentralized Distributed Exchanges.
There's no such thing as 'at the same time' in the blockchain: two transactions in the same block are handled in order of appearance within the block. but the order of the transactions can be different per miner... so its dependent on which miner solves the block? Yes. PhantomPhreak, thanks for responding. So you cant really be sure of your position until the standard 6 confirmations. Also a miner can game the system by front-running trades after solving a block. Also there are many "latency arbitrage" "alpha" strategies that can be used to game the system, since it is possible to to make a trade in the past based on "future" information. This is why Decentralized Distributed Exchanges for liquid assets is nearly impossible to implement. I've read this whole thread and everything about XCP and still have not found details technical info on how the matching works, does it use "atomic transactions" ? I have some ideas on solutions, PM if interested.. im a 15 year high frequency trading C++ coders. cheers |
|
|
|
|
Bitstamp showing strength, managing to stay above 530.
|
|
|
|
Can someone please explain what happens when two people try to sell at the bid price at the same time? Who gets the fill?
This is fundamental issue with Decentralized Distributed Exchanges.
There's no such thing as 'at the same time' in the blockchain: two transactions in the same block are handled in order of appearance within the block. but the order of the transactions can be different per miner... so its dependent on which miner solves the block? |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
