There hasn't been weekly dividends if you check the dividend tab.

I cannot waive the fees. It is not my website.

Yes, I know about these things. Point was just to illustrate approximately how price was on a stable exponential growth over the last year, except for a rise before Pirateat40 closed his Ponzi followed by a crash and recently with all the news hype.

Not to say that the price will return to that line or anything. Just illustrating that the recent movement was a strong and sudden variation to the stable prices we had before (Well stable for BTC anyway). What I think was a bubble (price fuel news which fuel more people to join and boost price in a loop).

I think the price started to creep up slowly as early as November with Wordpress accepting Bitcoins and also withBitPay processing a high amount of sales in Bitcoins (Mostle for sales for Butterfly Labs's ASICs). It generated a bit of news and I believe it started ramping up from there. When hysteria peaked and with increasing wild guesses about Bitcoins reaching the moon, with the latest candles zooming almost vertically, I decided to sell, at 230-250 USD/BTC. Decision I do not regret.

Without a quick recovery, I believe news will slow fade away and with it exposure to new speculators and flow of new funds. Prices will deflate in a classic bubble trend. This is just my opinion of what I think is likely to happen, not that I believe it to be a certainty. But anything otherwise would surprise me quite a lot. I remain a proponent of Bitcoins, I just don't think the latest prices are sustainable/reasonable for the time being.

I don't think Bitcoin have enough foothold in the public mindset to be used as a store of value with any kind of stability. Gold is strongly ingrained in the public mind.

Bitcoins could be breached one day, it relies on SHA-256 being strong enough not being possible to be brute forced or no weakness being found. Bitcoins could also be replaced by another cryptocurrency.

Also, an exponential curve on linear chart and a straight line on a log chart are very similar. Log chart shows a strong deviation from the usual exponential growth of Bitcoins:


Although I am unsure Bitcoins can continue such exponential growth right now, the current trend of the last few week was way over the top and the predictions for Bitcoins, short of ridiculous and overoptimistic, in my opinion.

Uh? This is not about not believing in Bitcoins or hating them. Just that I believe they are currently overvalued (vs others who think they are undervalued). It's not like I'll be going away from Bitcoins anytime soon. Well albeit the views expressed in this thread by some might be a bit on the extreme catastrophic scenario. Just to say although I'm bull on a time span of years, I'm bearish for the next months.

MtGox and BitPay are pretty big, attackable targets to attack if someone wanted to hurt Bitcoins, don't they?

Bitcoin itself might not be closed down anytime soon but all this is now pretty valuable for something still so risky.

Well, I see a lot of bulls showing exponential growth with everyone getting rich still. I see a dead cat bounce.



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Bitcoins


I certainly do agree with the qualities of Bitcoins. But they don't appeal that much to the mass, but to a fringe community of users. They're much harder to use than older payment methods and unless someone absolutely needs/wants anonymity, will probably not go through the trouble of getting Bitcoins.

I also think these wild rides up followed by crash reduces relegate Bitcoins to a joke, at least for now, in the eyes of most out there. Albeit we're gradually getting more exposures/interest in Bitcoins, I believe.

The wild fluctuations are a nuisance which will delay Bitcoin adoption, in my opinion. It makes it a casino. A gambling speculative toy and reduces it's efficiency as a currency.

The software is also still quite immature and the limits imposed on transactions and the size of the current blockchain are already put under strain. We need more years of development before it becomes suitable for day to day usage, if ever.


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The Bubble


I currently see a bubble, fueled by hype. The current upswing being the "dead cat bounce" after the crash, albeit it's losing speed. There was more and more news along the way up. There's still a lot going out albeit less and I believe it will keep going lower and lower for that part. Now that we peaked and crashed, the topic is less sensational and I expect medias to slowly move away, for the time being. Search trends for Bitcoins has been on the decline. Will it keep going that way?


If it does, the influx of new money might be cut short. The latest uptrend might be just a dead cat bounce, latecomers going for the "cheap" Bitcoins, but if the influx isn't maintained, the buying spree might get short of breath. I see a rebound that is running out of momentum.



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How I trade


So I have a completely opposite view to most out there it seems, not really being much interested in daytrading. Plotting charts might work well over the short term for a matter of hours/days, or even a few weeks. But on the long term, nothing beats the hype cycles which peak with media attention and mass enthusiasm. And those are fairly hard to predict in advance seeing one could start anytime with good news drawing more attention, more involvement and further fueling more news/enthusiasm in a self-feeding loop. Albeit once they start, the outcome is easy to guess. I started some time ago in the lows following the first Bitcoin bubble. I sold at the peak of the news, far fetched stories of various hypothetical scenarios where Bitcoins were about to go even more exponential in prices, when the amount of enthusiasm and imagined outcomes was stepping close to mass madness. Prices promptly came crashing down. Where did you sell at?

Many disruptive technologies were adopted fast, but it still took years for everyone to start using them. The telephone wasn't adopted in a few weeks. Computers were not adopted in a few weeks. The Internet was not adopted in a few weeks. Social networking sites like Facebook didn't become popular in a few weeks. It takes time for new things to mature into something that can make their way out there, if they ever do. Bitcoins might not even be the cryptocurrency to make it, if any cryptocurrency ever makes it.

My answer:

Well aethero was well rated. Hope that's news whatever happened to him have gone better.

Glad to see the website is back. Hopefully he'll gives us some news soon and he can put everything back in order. Would have been silly to put a working business website in the dustbin.

PMing you

1-2 weeks since the 3... so 10-17 April. Guess we're at the end of it without news. Would be sad to see Ziggap go.

2354 BTC for 11 BTC x 214 loan units for hashing, with 15 BTC left. For a total 2354 + 15 = 2369 issued shares.

Yes, we've been pretty busy. I just added the March statement on the list. I had yet to tally the BitPay and Paypal sales.

We've turned a very small profit this month due to raising sales. New design seems quite appreciate. We have yet to complete transferring customers from certain nodes to the New York datacenter to our newly purchased servers. Once completed, we can stop paying the monthly rent on the rented servers, colocation being much cheaper.

After that profits should be up significantly and the debts for the servers/hardware acquisition should be paid off quickly.

More like 270k USD when counting outstanding shares. The rest used to be my shares on GLBSE. I had put a lot of BTC aside into BTC-MINING too.

They were loaned to amazingrando. There's extensive logs in my private messages between amazingrando and me regarding the terms and transfers of BTC with numerous confirmations from Amazingrando of receiving the BTC and owing mining payment (as well as the repayment date). I guess I'd need Theymos or some mod to take a look and confirm here? I'll PM Theymos about it.

Good to hear. There should definitely be a second person to process things, just in case. People are buying bitcoins en masse right now. Would be great to have ZIGGAP online.

There's no halving of any kind. There's 100 million shares total. DeaDTerra merely manage a passthrough for the actual shares on MPEx. More people now hold shares through his passthrough.

S.DICE - March 2013

Per share
890.176245 BTC / 100'000'000 S.DICE = 0.00000890176245 BTC

5% Fee
0.00000890176245 * 95% = 0.0000084566743275 BTC

Rounded up
0.00000846 BTC


Well the house can't always have good months. Hopefully it will be better next month.

Updated

Well just go on #bitcoin-otc and query aethero on the matter then.

I assume it was plugged on the charger.