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You're close, but not quite on target.
If you look back through the history of bitcoin the average total increase per period is 17.8% or 20.24% if you take out the year when growth was 0%. The four month average is 18%.
Depending on what the companies do anything could still happen. There is a lot of competition happening out there. Most people do agree that the miners that are being made right now have a very short time frame of return, so this will have to drop off pretty soon. However even if we do only grow 9% in the following year we could have a ROI that looks more like 25% if the growth is weighted toward the beginning.
Looking at the difficulty rise it's hard to imagine that it would go that high. To follow the trend that has been set since the beginning of bitcoin, though, we will have to see some pretty high numbers.
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They haven't asked for anything yet, and say that when they do it will be in escrow form. Nothing to complain about.
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20-24 weeks is such a long time.
Could you move forward?
Oh it was right in front of my eyes! Alright then 20-24wk.. |
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BTC address? Would like to donate you some.
Well I will assume that was from you, and thank you very much.  Officially the first donation. Very good timing too as I am about to put in some good long hours on adding about 10 times the info on each manufacturer so it's useful for a wider variety of people, and to give it a larger context. Great feedback. Hey, it looks great. I'll add you as soon as I can get a vague estimate of a lead time, or permission to make one up  I'll have a new system soon that I will be able to add you into without lead time, but for the next couple days it'll be in flux. Edit- Ok I see it now 20-24 weeks. |
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Good luck, I hope everything goes smoothly for you.
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Thanks, I'll be posting much more information on each manufacturer and distributor very soon.
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Not necessarily. If you're about to order I trust you've done your research. I am going to have a much more balanced approach to this soon so people can make their own decision and have all the information available instead of just asking to trust me. (On my table I mean) kjlimo, what is your estimate on the lead time for a new BFL order? Their site says it might take up to 2 months or more. This is as vague as it could possibly be, and I haven't seen anything more clear. I would love to be pointed in the right direction though. |
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1nKAizrhGzvLfWBVfX8fGLAs6kxKV7aXM Thanks! Knc just came out with a 1 chip 100GH/s model at $1995.
Oh strange, guess they didn't do an email alert? Thanks for letting me know, I'll put this in right away. [done] |
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That's a good idea. I'm about to rework the page, was actually thinking about doing that.
I'm going to give each manufacturer their own page and each machine it's own table showing the effect of different time periods. So we don't really need the drop down menu, but I still think it would be great to have on the main page. That, or fields you can type your own information into.
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Updated a couple numbers. I thought it would make the table look better, but unfortunately there is more red and yellow, with ever shrinking green.
I thought by now Avalon would have gotten chips out. Maybe I'll split the chart, like has been talked about in this thread.
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Smear peice? That's fine. I was thinking more of education. New people see the Butterfly Labs page and hit that preorder button without knowing what is going on. It's quite likely that the best you'll do at this point is break even.
If you have a preorder from a long time ago then this article is not about you.
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It does make sense that 97% of people who hold bitcoins aren't able to do much with them. Easy to mine, hard to spend has been the rule since the beginning. Getting harder to mine, so many people are buying in as an investment.
Without more context it's impossible to know why those 90k were divided like that. It could very well be that someone was trying to hide their investment. There are many other reasons it could happen, though. Lots of other people with large holding too, did they do this? Or just one person/group?
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Yes, it's unfortunate that the table can't encompass every bit of info. I am working on making multiple tables, though, that give a more full impression. Doing things like having 3 different ways of calculating difficulty and comparing them, adding likely costs of the DIY manufacturers that they haven't.. a lot of information like that. Also I can make custom tables to take a person's electricity cost and shipping into account.
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