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3201  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 27, 2013, 10:15:38 PM
Here guys:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=16223.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=27663.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=158638.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=165583.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=152274.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=126798.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=14438.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=165989.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=167639.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=86894.0


That's just a selection from the first page of search results for millbit.

Now back to charts.
3202  Other / Off-topic / Musical Turing Test on: April 27, 2013, 08:29:42 AM
For my data mining course, my team is experimenting with composing music using data mining algorithms.  To test our algorithms, we are running a musical turing test.  If you participate, you will be asked to identify 10 sequences of chords as human composed or computer composed.  At the end you will see your results and be given the option to start a new test run.

http://yrral.net/musicality.html

Thank you for your time.
3203  Economy / Speculation / Re: wtf? on: April 25, 2013, 09:36:18 PM
or this:

Someones bot got a glitch and spams GOX with thousands of 0.00001 buy/sell's. Pathetic attempt to DDOS  Grin



I don't think this is correct.  The api gives me an error if I try to place a trade smaller than 0.01 btc.
3204  Economy / Speculation / Re: Can you short bitcoins yet? on: April 25, 2013, 09:33:53 PM
Icbit.se is also an option
3205  Economy / Speculation / Re: LOL 20$ UP IN TEN SECONDS ? on: April 25, 2013, 09:22:10 PM
It's also throwing buy orders in to the fresh space cleared in the ask wall after the drop. Some ill timed, some opportunistic, some dumb, some panic.

Life as normal, if you're trading anything under the hour you're either HFT or looking to throw your money/coin away...

My bot wakes up once a minute to check if its orders have been hit... Does that count as HFT?
3206  Economy / Speculation / Re: Should I re-buy in? on: April 25, 2013, 09:14:25 PM
Fuck manual trading... if you don't trade with a system you're going to lose.  If you're trading with a system, and you don't stick to it, you're going to lose.

If you have to trade with a system and you have to stick to it, use a bot.

with https://github.com/yrral86/rubybot if I want to sell, I send the bitcoins to the exchange.  I will either not trade(price goes down, no usd yet), have a profit in terms of bitcoin (if it goes up and then down), or I get better than the current price for my bitcoins.

With my current round, I started it at $125/bitcoin.  I'm just using play money right now, but I'm currently short 1.52 bitcoins with a base price of $142.  Sure, I'm behind a bit same as you, but my bids are in place at bitcoin-denominated profit points in case it dips.  I've got enough I'm holding, so I'm willing to reduce my exposure a bit and add liquidity to the market so that when the dips come I can help soften them.

The same round is still going.  I'm currently short 0.577 btc at a base price of $146.94.  This means I can rebuy at any point before $146.94 to lock in bitcon profits, or just take the usd off the table if I am looking to sell.

I love it when the market is conflicted.
3207  Economy / Speculation / Re: Should I re-buy in? on: April 25, 2013, 07:09:34 AM
Yes
It is a pain in the @ss for not having bitcoins during an uptrend

That's easy to fix... never sell all your bitcoins Tongue.
3208  Economy / Speculation / Re: YOU ARE HERE on: April 25, 2013, 07:02:45 AM
I suppose. I'm actually in limbo right now and will be moving soon. I'll be able to find work where I'm going... hopefully. See, I'm not the average sap so I understand exactly why and how my country has fallen to shambles due to the perverted corruptions of humanity.

Growing up my only ambition was to make the world a better place and to help people. I'm one of "those" fools. Heh, heh....

We spend our lives chasing money in order to survive. We trade our lifespans for it. We take on debt and trade the future as insurance. There is no such thing as a land of freedom. Freedom must be bought. life must be bought. Everything has a price. Anything, can be bought.

It seems like we cannot even earn the fruits of our labors. Parasites are taking as much bounty as they can, sucking everyone die.

My own survival relies on my own twisted sense of happiness and narcissism. Even now I am bubbly with joy. Death, failure, all of these things are do not matter. I have faced them before and will face them again. I see a lot of things. Deep down I know I was born to be a king... ha. But people like me, pfft. We aren't meant to succeed. In real life the bad guys always win.

I've gone off on a soliloquy, back to bitcoin. I'm sure it's too early to tell. I'm sure its going to rise, and I'm sure its going to fall. I'm sure a technical attack could send things all over the place at any moment. I'm sure the market could naturally go anywhere.

I'm learning as much as I can at the moment. I'm enthralled by bitcoin out of genuine affection. I see it's value. Compared to the currencies of natures today it is a tantalizing entity.

Believe me, I know the weight of debt, but bitcoin has helped me to pay it down.  I absolutely agree about parasites in the dollar economy, but there are other options and staying with dollars is a choice.  Other things might be harder to trade with, but you can't feed the leeches.  Luckily, bitcoin makes traditional fiat money transfer options look cumbersome.  It only faces the problem of adoption, which can only be solved by time.
3209  Economy / Speculation / Re: Post Paypal announcement price on: April 25, 2013, 06:27:06 AM
What do you think?

I'm assuming you mean a hypothetical future announcement, since they have only said they are "looking at it".
3210  Economy / Speculation / Re: YOU ARE HERE on: April 25, 2013, 06:25:44 AM
The reason I'm afraid to buy back right now and not on a dip is how overwhelmingly positive and optimistic everyone is at the moment.

Clearly this cannot be a good sign.

I've always been positive, since my first trade (BTC for Fiat) when they traded at 0.15$/BTC.. I've bought and sold a lot since then, never regrets a transaction, alway been positive..

The history tends/seems to always repeat itself..

Indeed, the rate of echange can fall, maybe in the 2 digits, but BTC are quite unusual, by it nature, nothing comares, so I've bet on the rise, and I'm just looking for more opportunity to get more involved, asap !

I actually agree with the sentiments of the more seasoned investors, traders, buyers and sellers here, but I have a problem you see.

I am poor.

Because I am new to this I've missed every dip and smart decision that would have multiplied me some hefty (at least for me) gains. I don't want to make the same mistake again so soon. So I'm just going to see how the current market trend pans out over the next week or so.

Dollar cost average.

Every pay check put $X into bitcoin.  You will buy more when it is cheaper and less when it is more expensive, giving you a good average price.  Since most fees are percentage based and not flat fees, it doesn't make a difference if X is $1000 or $5..

Thank you for the advice. That makes a lot of sense and I hadn't even considered it. In fact that is a beautiful strategy. I thank you for your insight.

Now all I need is a job! All hail America! All hail inflation and unsustainable trillions in debt that seems to be rising after some of the worst financial decisions in U.S. history created monstrous financial corporations into supreme power furthering the degradation of capitalism and death of the American dream!

Ah... I miss work.... working 7 days a week.... making less than a part time worker.... what a beautiful world.  Cheesy


Employment has been higher than average the past few years here in West Virginia and there are plenty of companies looking for workers.  Sure, you have to give up living on top of your neighbors, but there is work available in America.
3211  Economy / Speculation / Re: YOU ARE HERE on: April 25, 2013, 06:14:47 AM
The reason I'm afraid to buy back right now and not on a dip is how overwhelmingly positive and optimistic everyone is at the moment.

Clearly this cannot be a good sign.

I've always been positive, since my first trade (BTC for Fiat) when they traded at 0.15$/BTC.. I've bought and sold a lot since then, never regrets a transaction, alway been positive..

The history tends/seems to always repeat itself..

Indeed, the rate of echange can fall, maybe in the 2 digits, but BTC are quite unusual, by it nature, nothing comares, so I've bet on the rise, and I'm just looking for more opportunity to get more involved, asap !

I actually agree with the sentiments of the more seasoned investors, traders, buyers and sellers here, but I have a problem you see.

I am poor.

Because I am new to this I've missed every dip and smart decision that would have multiplied me some hefty (at least for me) gains. I don't want to make the same mistake again so soon. So I'm just going to see how the current market trend pans out over the next week or so.

Dollar cost average.

Every pay check put $X into bitcoin.  You will buy more when it is cheaper and less when it is more expensive, giving you a good average price.  Since most fees are percentage based and not flat fees, it doesn't make a difference if X is $1000 or $5..
3212  Economy / Speculation / Re: YOU ARE HERE on: April 25, 2013, 05:55:46 AM
The first sell of was in 2011 and teh big  one was two weeks ago so obviously we're at return to normal.
This shit is going to fall hard within the next few days. Bitcoin hangs from the thread that is mt. gox. If anything at all bad happens to them, the whole market is fucked.

All the local people contacting me to buy bitcoins seem to think differently.  And this is rural West Virginia, where 98% of people are still stuck 30 years in the past.  MtGox isn't that important.

That's even scarier and more consistent with a bubble.

Then why are they still looking to buy after it "popped"?

To be fair, I do live near WVU and a few other schools, so my 98% estimation is probably a bit high for this particular region.  It is more representative of the area I lived in during high school.
3213  Economy / Speculation / Re: Should I re-buy in? on: April 25, 2013, 05:05:41 AM
I believe some individual or small group with millions of dollars is manipulating the market, starting rallies that are so convincing that everyone piles in, believing the climb won't stop until we hit $1 million per bitcoin, then flash crashes so devastating that people sell everything in a panic.  The manipulators profit by doing most of their buying early in the rallies, when prices are low, and massive selling at the start of the crashes, while prices are still high.

Their moves are sufficiently random that the only way to accurately predict the tops and bottoms is to be privy to they plans of the manipulators.  However, we can expect them to keep doing the things they have been doing.  They tend to create 1 or 2 small flash crashes each week, varying in size from 15% to 40%.  I also suspect that they will invoke another major crash within the next few months.  

Even though I cannot predict the tops and bottoms, I believe it is possible to profit from this artificial volativity by placing limit orders to automatically sell on the way up, and then to re-buy on the crashes.

For example, every time the price goes up 5% you could sell 1% of your holdings.  As soon as that sell executes, you place a buy order for more coins at a 15% lower price.  When that re-buy executes during a small downturn, you re-place the sell order at the higher price.  I currently have 21 sell orders placed between $162 and $222, and 11 buy orders between $109 and $139.  Every time a sell/buy pair executes, I gain 15% more bitcoins.

I think it's a safe bet that the price will rise again to $250 or more, suffering several flash crashes on the way, and then crash again to less than $100.  My system makes money every time I get out and in, and when we crash back to $100 again, I should have considerably more coins than when I started.  Also, by selling into rallies and buying into corrections, I help stabilize the price a bit.  If more people would adopt this system, we might foil the manipulation scheme entirely.

Your case is different, since you're starting with fiat.  I think I would place buy orders ranging from about $100 to perhaps 10% below the current price.  As the price rises, keep adding more buys.  When we hit the next flash crash, you will certainly hit some of those buys.  Immediately place an order to resell those coins at a 25% profit.  When those sells execute, use the proceeds to place buys 15% lower.

Or if that's too much work, you could wait for the next major crash.  It could take several months, and there's no way to call the exact bottom.  But you could wait until 24 hours after a devastating crash, buy in, then gradually sell as the price starts going up again.

The key is to avoid panic buying when the price is high and panic selling after the price drops!




Another reason why we need more people adding liquidity with standing orders.
3214  Economy / Speculation / Re: Should I re-buy in? on: April 25, 2013, 03:35:20 AM
Fuck manual trading... if you don't trade with a system you're going to lose.  If you're trading with a system, and you don't stick to it, you're going to lose.

If you have to trade with a system and you have to stick to it, use a bot.

with https://github.com/yrral86/rubybot if I want to sell, I send the bitcoins to the exchange.  I will either not trade(price goes down, no usd yet), have a profit in terms of bitcoin (if it goes up and then down), or I get better than the current price for my bitcoins.

With my current round, I started it at $125/bitcoin.  I'm just using play money right now, but I'm currently short 1.52 bitcoins with a base price of $142.  Sure, I'm behind a bit same as you, but my bids are in place at bitcoin-denominated profit points in case it dips.  I've got enough I'm holding, so I'm willing to reduce my exposure a bit and add liquidity to the market so that when the dips come I can help soften them.
3215  Economy / Speculation / Re: A New Indicator on: April 25, 2013, 03:14:44 AM
So.. What's the dotted line?

It's a log chart, and it's a straight line roughly through the price.  I'd guess it's a simple exponential fit of price data.
3216  Economy / Speculation / Re: YOU ARE HERE on: April 24, 2013, 01:23:04 PM
The first sell of was in 2011 and teh big  one was two weeks ago so obviously we're at return to normal.
This shit is going to fall hard within the next few days. Bitcoin hangs from the thread that is mt. gox. If anything at all bad happens to them, the whole market is fucked.

All the local people contacting me to buy bitcoins seem to think differently.  And this is rural West Virginia, where 98% of people are still stuck 30 years in the past.  MtGox isn't that important.
3217  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 24, 2013, 01:19:36 PM
That's true. What scares me is what will happen when those who bought at $80ish to $100ish are going to cash out at $160 to $200. As I said earlier, the feeling is not any more "buy and hold" (which lead to parabolic growth), people is much more cautious now.

I don't get it.  Why would recovering so quickly from a massive downturn make people scared to hold?  Can they really not wait 2 weeks?  If so, they need to learn what bitcoins are and quit investing in things they don't understand.
3218  Economy / Speculation / Re: I'm a bear and proud on: April 23, 2013, 06:49:13 PM
the point of the big hands, which i suppose i didn't make very clear is that this will destroy bitcoin, everyone loves a rally, i love a rally, however due to the cyclical pumping and dumping it will not only affect bitcoin as a reliable  currency, it will kill its credibility, therefore as long as there are big hands causing these erratic price jumps, the hsort term memory of bitcoins price history will begin to transgress into a longterm occurence making it very diffiult for bitcoin to succeed and actually prosper, and being a ffree market with a low capital, there is absolutely nothing that can be done about it, which is why i'm sceptical confidence in the currency will allow the bitcoin to ever reach 1000 $

Bitcoin market cap is too low -> Bitcoin market cap will never grow?

I don't follow.
3219  Economy / Speculation / Re: I'm a bear and proud on: April 23, 2013, 06:08:24 PM

1. cross border transactions- faster/cheaper than cash or digital fiat
2. internet transactions- faster/cheaper than digital fiat
3. person to person transfers- faster/cheaper than digital fiat
4. in person transactions- equivalent to cash, cheaper than digital fiat

Care to give me one example of bitcoin not being portable?  In physical locations where it is accepted, bitcoin is just as easy to use as cash.

Agree with #1.

Agree with #3 & #4 if sender already holds Bitcoins but not to purchase BTC simply to make transfers within the US. I hate Paypal, but one can send money transfers (not purchase related) free of fees for both sender & receiver. If one already holds BTC as an investment, it makes sense to make intra-border (US) purchases and transfers.

Disagree with #2. Because of Bitcoin volatility, 99.9% of merchants can only accept it through BitPay. This will likely never change due to foreign exchange risk. BitPay charges 1%. The spread to purchase BTC is usually 0.5% to 1% and much higher (5%) during period of high volatility. The merchant price through BitPay must account for spread. So all things being equal and assuming instantaneous transactions, the USD-BTC-USD transaction would cost 1.5% to 2% at the minimum. And this doesn't include the substantial foreign exchange risk assumed by the purchaser, which could certainly dwarf a CC fee in a matter of seconds.

One case for USD-BTC-USD is for very niche, privacy related reasons that likely involve international sites (gambling, etc).

You're right, USD-BTC-USD is not ideal.  But as a merchant, you only have to worry about BTC-USD, and bitpay can handle that for you at 1%.  Much cheaper than credit cards with no fraud risk.
3220  Economy / Speculation / Re: I'm a bear and proud on: April 23, 2013, 05:33:46 PM
only you dont have to write it, plus coins? wheres the serial there

Sure, you don't have to write anything... unless you pay by check.

Yes, if you refuse to have internet, cash can save you 5 seconds over bitcoin Roll Eyes.

What about the other 3 points that you have ignored:
Quote
1. cross border transactions- faster/cheaper than cash or digital fiat
2. internet transactions- faster/cheaper than digital fiat
3. person to person transfers- faster/cheaper than digital fiat
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