Unfortunately I´m an late BTC adaptor (april 2013) and a member here since 2-3 months. I wonder, were this threads also like this 1-2 years ago? I mean, were people making threads with "will Bitcoin ever reach $10 or $100"?? I ask this because maybe we are awaiting too much grow from BTC at this point? I myself also cant imagine that 1BTC will be even worth $10.000.
Oh ya I have been bearish since 22 usd. and remain bearish BTC's valuation is totally unjustified its a tulip bubble. Please tell us when you turn bullish! The price has doubled more than 16 times, it can quite easily double a few more times. There will be so much money flowing from the stock market soon. dumb money and smart money. it will drive BTC to the moon. I was never involved for capital gain but social change when I realized that wasnt possible I abandoned it. Doubling isnt gonna happen. If you are getting in now you are a late comer. I got in at 12 usd per BTC and have bought and sold over 500 BTC. Relax. Less than 2 million users in a world of 7.25 billion means we are way, way, way early. $10 billion market cap in a $60 trillion global economy means we have a long, long, long way to go. |
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What you have above is the option to make money without any of the risks. Ask yourself, does any such thing exist in the real world?
Let's see, maybe R13 where the same policy was in place (without the restocking fee even), the miners weren't delivered on time, and we got refunds? Ask yourself: did you or did you not take a risk with pre ordering? If yes, then don't spam the thread any further. No, I did not take a risk associated with pre-ordering because I was told that I was able to get a refund up until shipment. I hate pre-orders and have always hated pre-orders. In fact in three years of mining I have only done one pre-order (BFL) which also had a refund policy (I paid in fiat and had the option for a refund in fiat), though I elected to stick with it and eventually got the miner (which I sold at a profit). If not, then you are being exceedingly unrealistic by expecting someone to take all the risk and you all the profits if it worked out. So, which is it?
It is neither. There are plenty of risks associated with mining that have nothing to do with pre-ordering. You can buy miners out of stock (as I have done) and you can order miners with a refund policy (as I have also done) and you are still risking losing money. For example, the miners may break down or just be flaky, difficulty may go up faster than expected, bitcoin prices may crash, you may have pool trouble, network trouble, power outages, etc. Those are risks associated with mining. The risks associated with pre-ordering without a refund policy (which was not the case here) are separate from that, and not at all inherent in mining. If you want to do that, go right ahead. I don't and I didn't. Did you understand that DZ coop is an "at cost" coop? Yes or no? |
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bitcoinlitcoinbtcltc, I agree with your analysis, and I'm grateful for your service. I have confirmed you as a verified and trustworthy bad news source.
Also, please contribute to the confirmed bad news thread, so people can see all the confirmed bad news in one place. Thank you, again.
I think it will go down to around $350-400 like the last crash. Maybe even a little bit lower. Remember people, last year it crashed from 266 to 50. It went down 82%. It could go down to $150 just as easily (same percentage). because it went down EXACTLY 82% it WILL go down EXACTLY 82% from last ATH, so clearly anyone buying over (.18xATH) is doomed. also, in this scientific and prooven maths formula WILL hold true on all future price gains, forever, unchangingly. if price falls only 20%, 30% hell even 80%, we have not seen the bottem. 82% is the ticket people... even Jesus Christ told of the powers of the 82%, because he lost 82% of his weight after dying, only to return to All Time Highs in heaven (da moon) You met Jesus??? Or are you referring to a book....  I felt really bad for this lady she was so nice and was just trying to help. She really caught hell for screwing up that painting The road to hell is paved with good intentions. |
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You are more than welcome to sell your shares to someone else and have them transferred (after the spreadsheet maintenance is done) however the DZMC doesn't have a cash / BTC reserve to buy back / refund as soon as an order is placed it is paid for.
You can spin how you like. My guess is that the content was copied over from the old site to the new site. I know for a fact that I relied on the quoted refund terms, certainly from the OP and most likely from the web site as well, when I ordered my shares. Maybe with this only-two-month delay and the compensation plan not everyone will want a refund. It is entirely possible that many will want to stick it it out with you, and things will work out. If so I wish you the best. I however, relied on a refund policy for my shares (a small number BTW -- fewer than phil) and I expect the refund policy to be honored until you and unless you claim you guys are flat broke (in which case we can discuss liquidating assets to meet your obligations). Anything less than that is fraud, plain and simple. Goes with the territory I suppose, but I hoped you guys were better than that. What you have above is the option to make money without any of the risks. Ask yourself, does any such thing exist in the real world? DZcoop is a stand up not for profit coop. You'll just end up spamming this thread with threats, insults and never understand that you took a risk with pre ordering. Ask yourself: did you or did you not take a risk with pre ordering? If yes, then don't spam the thread any further. If not, then you are being exceedingly unrealistic by expecting someone to take all the risk and you all the profits if it worked out. So, which is it? |
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I would love to have a refund as well, since the chance just to break even do not look good. But I am also reasonable; yes DZ is a big business now - but in its essence r17 is still a group buy with many risks involved. I knew the risk and I will face the consequences and take my loss. The shares are not completely worthless if the X3 turn out to be a reliable miner that can generate a steady income (imo), so there is still chance to recover some of the loss. I do not blame thomas_s, bobsag3 and DyslexicZombei for this situation. I have full trust that DZ coop will do their part in getting the best out of the situation. Bobsag3; put on your best business-face and get a good deal for us  BA chips per current specs will never be competitive versus AM chips. BA chips will be two months later. It will also draw 0.75 versus 0.35 w/ghs at typical speeds. BA needs to realise the above fact and immediately offer customer refunds or build PCBs for AM chips or combo of both. If BA produces their own chips, we will not see a return on our investment in Btc terms. Maybe not even in fiat. So, I don't want anyone to put on rose coloured glasses. The comp has comprehensively beaten BA. Bob: please discuss this fact with BA and help them realise that their current path is fubar. They need to dump their chip and their back end team who has not performed as expected. |
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My prediction will come true. And when it does, I expect a donation from everyone here. Otherwise I will never again share insider information with you guys  . Prediction fail. This morning the sun rose (except in China where it is too polluted unfortunately). Bitcoins spiked up and then settled at $800. Man, was I disappointed. If it went up, great! If it went down, also great! But it did a big fat nothing. the 31st isnt over yet Now it is, now it is my friend. |
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Seeing as how it hasn't taped out yet and they have no circuit boards, no case, no software, nothing. I seriously doubt it starts shipping in May. They basically have nothing. They should NOT produce this chip. They should just get with someone like AsicMiner and build boards with their chips. It'll be better/cheaper/faster. Going forward with this is a mistake. An expensive one.
The above is correct, IMHO. AM chips will be 0.35 w/ghs TT and 0.2 w/ghs ss. They are using 40nm, which means estimated chip delivery near end march. AM chips will be cheaper to buy wholesale compared to BA chips to produce in terms of Btc and timing, due to BA delay of two months. To maximise return, BA should swallow their pride and realise the comp has them beat. AM has taped out, and designs are out for PCB design. FriedCat has even asked for people to PM him on this as he wants to sell AM chips wholesale. The BA back end team cannot produce a better chip at 28nm. BA, it's time to move forward so everyone will at least have a chance to recover their btcs. We don't care whose chips you use. We want hash power ASAP. |
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Hey bobsag3, can you read this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=294197.msg4837079#msg4837079and this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=294197.msg4837704#msg4837704please? Like many others, I think the planned 25% for 4 months is insufficient. I think it would be fair to compensate with the same number of hashes (not hashes/sec, but actual hashes) that are lost. 2 months' delay on a 2 TH/s should be compensated with either 4 months cloud hashing at 1 TH/s or 2 months at 2 TH/s. If you think that's reasonable, please discuss it with Black Arrow when you meet with them in London. Also, I'm going to be in Shenzhen for most of February. If there's anything I can do to help BA or the community while I'm there, please let me know. Take pictures of factory, people in factory, managing director, his secretary, wife and dog. Post in this forum.  |
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I think at the end of the day the real lesson to be learned is; always make sure that your sources are confirmed.
right proudhon?
Proudhon needs to reconfirm his confirmed sources.  |
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My prediction will come true. And when it does, I expect a donation from everyone here. Otherwise I will never again share insider information with you guys . Prediction fail. This morning the sun rose (except in China where it is too polluted unfortunately). Bitcoins spiked up and then settled at $800. Man, was I disappointed. If it went up, great! If it went down, also great! But it did a big fat nothing. the 31st isnt over yet you just keep praying buddy. |
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My prediction will come true. And when it does, I expect a donation from everyone here. Otherwise I will never again share insider information with you guys . Prediction fail. This morning the sun rose (except in China where it is too polluted unfortunately). Bitcoins spiked up and then settled at $800. Man, was I disappointed. If it went up, great! If it went down, also great! But it did a big fat nothing. |
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SPECIAL UPDATE: the price has, again, failed to make new ATHs, and therefore adds further confirmation to what's already been confirmed, that bitcoin is crashing as we speak. Over the next 24-48 hours more confirmed bad news will roll in, as has been confirmed. Much of it will be from China, therefore maximally confirmed. The weight of all these confirmed bad newses will further crash the price of bitcoin over the weekend, as has already been confirmed by true and faithful sources.
I followed your bad advice. I regretted it. Now, I'm going to buy more bitcoins. Your advice is bad. Proudhon => Shamehon or Embarasshon or NoIdeahon |
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I know the latest news from friedcat aren't 2 days old yet and most of us are still quite happy and relieved, but let's not stop here! The board meeting has yet to take place and although most of our questions have indirectly been answered in friedcat's announcement, we have the chance to submit an updated list of questions to friedcat. Again, theres no telling whether friedcat is going to address even a single question we ask, but I think we should just give it a shot! Some questions are quite intriguing, but I guess friedcat knows how much he can make public. The list I've just submitted to Jutarul (Thank you!), who's trying his best to get it through: - What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)?
- In the new chips announcement, friedcat stated that the chip prices will be based in USD. A rising BTC price would thus mean lower dividends - since less BTC to pay the dividends can be bought from the incoming payments. What happens when the BTC price - for example - doubles, will the price of the chips be adjusted accordingly?
- A continuation of mining would be an excellent hedge against a rising price of BTC if done by a company with access to chips at almost zero cost - like ASICMiner. How probable is a continuation of mining done directly by ASICMiner (or franchisees) and how will this be decided?
- What is the currently anticipated long-term strategy for ASICMiner after the 3rd generation?
- What is the status and capacity of the immersion-cooling data center, and will it house some of the 3rd generation hardware used for mining?
Plan 1: World Domination. Plan 2: World Domination. Plan 3: see plans 1 & 2. |
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I whoopsied.  Bob you are a stand up guy and have done a lot of hard work for the coop. I hope this works out for you and the rest of us. best regards phil I have gone ahead and booked my flight to the UK- Ill be getting in there next tuesday. I will as usually provide as much info and post as many pictures as I can. Hi Bob. Good luck. Suspect it is fubar. Btw, can you please check my PM to you on 15 x r19? Thanks. |
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So will it be easily possible to build derivatives on this ETF (options, futures,...)?
How likely is that to happen?
Should the ETF go ahead, then IMHO, it's very likely that standardized options will appear -- and that, finally and at long last, will provide a credible mechanism for large Bitcoin handlers to hedge positions effectively. (No, the existing quasi options offered on "THE" exchange don't come close to offering such a credible mechanism. And the futures available on ICBIT become less and less appealing with every new change to the exchange's "rules".) Making more effective hedging possible would arguably remove one of the major roadblocks currently standing in the way of larger scale adoption of Bitcoin for real commerce. Implied yield curve on long forwards would be highly negative. I'd be interested in seeing exactly how negative. |
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The long term viability of bitcoin as currency interests me, because ultimately, it is this quality that will sustain or derail it after all the speculation has moved on to more interesting pastures. The theory of money, therefore, is an important one to contemplate for those interested in the long game. Money theory can be complicated... and controversial. Let's add this thought to the mix: "Enter, bitcoin, a cryptography-based currency and technology developed by someone with the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. It has been designed to have a limited rate of growth in the total quantity of currency, up to a predefined cap. There can never be more than 21M bitcoins. The Quantity Theory says that this will make prices of goods measured in bitcoins stable. One problem with this theory is that the real costs in terms of land, capital, and labor to produce things is steadily falling. Every productive enterprise is constantly seeking to drive cost out of production. If a currency had a constant value, then prices in terms of this currency would be falling. As we shall see below, the value of bitcoin will be anything but constant. Without a mechanism for responding to increased market demand by creating more currency, there is a fatal flaw." excerpt from: http://monetary-metals.com/bitcoin-gold-and-the-quantity-of-mone/Falling prices will lead to greater efficiency instead of wasting scarce resources. See Japan. Stagnant GDP but super clean cities, machinery not needing replacement for 15 years, wonderful food, low unemployment. Deflation is ok. If their population levels weren't declining I think their GDP might even be slightly growing. Now they've got Abenomics to screw things up by trying to create GDP growth. Growth in what? Speculative assets? Why is growth necessary for a shrinking population? No wonder Abe's popularity is falling. Since, Abenomics, Japan's current account deficit has only been getting wider. Imports growth is outstripping exports growth. |
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A 32% difficulty increase to infinity is a little extreme, no? The network hashrate has to approach linear growth eventually. Not in 2014 I'm afraid. |
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Can anyone confirm if R17: Black Arrow Prospero X-3 is still open? The dzminer website says they are still open.
I have some for sale. But please note that R17 is delayed. |
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Even then it won't be competitive versus AM chips based on efficiency. IMHO, BA needs to halt production ASAP, offer to refund what they can and offer customers a chance to recoup via investing in a farm using AM chips. BA chips are not going to be here on time or be adequately efficient. |
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Or they could host bitfurries for everyone starting March 1 until we get the Prospero
Do they have enough to host to compensate everyone for the amount of THs each person ordered?
If they host the bitfuries there will be no money for prosperos. |
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