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You may still transfer BTC.
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the bubble is going to blow away What the actual fuck does this even mean? |
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I'm sort of sick of hearing the comparisons with 2011. I agree that there are some levels that the 2010 bubble sort of indicates are support, but honestly. The charts look completely different. I'm not saying this in a bull/bear way, it could be better than 2011, it could be worse than 2011 in that there isn't a rally soon after. Whatever. All I'm saying is its not 2011. 2011: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2011-06-04zeg2011-08-13ztgSzm1g10zm2g25http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2011-06-04zeg2011-06-13ztgSzm1g10zm2g25As you can see, the crash was a LOT slower in 2010 http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigHourlyzczsg2013-04-06zeg2013-04-13ztgSzm1g10zm2g25Next, the bounce held for a lot longer (is holding), i.e, we aren't dipping below $57 yet. Now: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-04-06zeg2013-07-02ztgSzm1g10zm2g252011: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2011-06-04zeg2011-09-01ztgSzm1g10zm2g25I suppose you could argue that in 2011 it bounced off $5, but our bounce took roughly 2 days while their bounce took roughly 2 months. $10 looks like the bounce-off point for 2011, and even if it breaks $57 somehow tomorrow, we still have lasted above the bounce point about twice as long as in 2011. /| The crashes look nothing like each other, other than the fact that the price goes _/ \_. Only, we don't even know the bottom yet, so we don't even know if it'll look like that. So while I agree that people are obviously going to put walls up at $17 if it ever gets down that low, just because they think this is 2011, it isn't 2011, so using that as evidence or analysis is sort of bad unless you are just trying to figure out where somebody might put up a bid/ask wall. |
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And the two walls are facing off... Your pick?  Below 100 is cheap coins Ahhh, I remember you. You are the guy who said "Also holding. I have my buy order in at 87. Every little helps bit helps with a down market." eheheheheh (Evil laugh)... Am I missing something? Because somebody who bought at $87 technically is in the green right now by a bit, so. |
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Can somebody quickly explain how with an ETF the winkles can do something in terms of manipulation that an exchanger like gox can't?
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Um aren't they keeping 80% of the etf for themselves?
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Apple had a better operating system than Microsoft, but Windows took 90% of the market.
Betamax was better than VCR, but Betamax wasn't widely adopted.
Bitcoin is the brand name in the space. The coins have no intrinsic value except market acceptance. So being in the leader position is huge. Most of the ecosystem is being built for bitcoin, not the alt currencies.
Perhaps LTC stands a chance of being a complementary currency.
And do you know the reason WHY ms-dos/windows took more market share than mac? They didnt try to take the hardware as well, and thus had THIRD PARTIES selling their OS for them. Do you know how I learned about bitcoin? Not by meeting a bitcoin miner, not by visiting btc-e and checking the exchange rate, but by needing an alternative to libertyreserve, visiting a Third Party merchant website, and seeing that they gave a discount if you bought with bitcoins. All the alt coins are crap because they arent the standard. As if it isnt hard enough to start a fucking currency with no government or traditional financial support people have to go around bickering over whether to use scrypt or sha. Really? Its practically the same, just take the first one so cryptocurrency critics cant turn around when litecoin or whatever coin and say "itll die out just like bitcoin" and work together for once in our fucking lives and make something actually happen. Dont bitch and try to be hipsters among a group of hipsters and use an alt coin just for the sake of being a hipster. If ANYTHING can kill cryptocurrencies as a concept, its the introduction of too many of them. Plz stop it already and try to aid the one cryptocurrency that has the greatest chance od success because its actually, you know, USED. how many Bitcoins do you have? it is funny when I see Bitcoiners bitching about LTC, just because you do not own them this doesn't mean they are likely a scam or they will die, let the market decides, the same as it did with Bitcoin. and yes If i see any coin that brings some innovation I will support it. at least I have choices. Bitcoiners are becoming communist, with this ideology of one thing and nothing else, it was the same in my country, if you wanted to buy a car you had only one model, buy it or shut up because other brands were evil, we had only one thing of everything and now you are pushing this ideology over which will lead to killing all coins. let people chose what to use. I own 32 bitcoins if you must know. I fail to see how this is at all relevant. I don't have anything against a free market, I'm all for a free market, yet in a free market I am allowed to tell the truth, nor does a free market mandate being stupid. Moreover, at the present the market isn't free, and the way people are using alt coins, it won't ever be free, because of all the alt coins undermining the standard that is Bitcoin. There is a difference between supporting a large company or brand over competition vs. supporting the established open-source protocol vs. other similar protocols. An open-source protocol doesn't go around abusing a monopoly. All these 'innovations' in the alt coins are just an alternate way of fixing the same problem, which would be fine and dandy, if those alternate coins were the standard. But they aren't. So by using them you undermine the standard and force a system where there isn't a standard at all and Cryptos die to the pseudo-inflation ridiculous amounts of coin types. But yes, this is a free market. You're perfect free to support alt coins. Last time I checked a free market doesn't mandate acting stupid simply because you have the freedom to do so. |
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The VV twins ETF can only be positive for the price of bitcoins. One - the publicity, and two - the spread of the shares to new users.
The ETF does not represent money supply increase, since the ETF shares are fully backed.
If the twins sell all the shares, keeping none to themselves, they have dollars to buy another 100K coins.
The Winklevoss twins claim to insulate investors from the credit risk. bullshit! How are they doing that exactly? If MtGox is shut down or goes bankrupt, the price of BTC will plummet by 80%, and so will the corresponding ETF shares idiot investors are holding. Investors are better off buying BTC from the exchange and putting on a thumb drive in their safe - and save themselves the 2-5% maintenance fee. In my opinion, the Winklevoss brothers are launching this now because they see the price of BTC going down, know they can't get out of their position without crashing the market, and so are selling "shares" on BTC in hopes of getting enough money out before it crashes. You are missing a huge point. There are trillions of dollars in the retail market that can NOT be used to buy bitcoins directly. As it stands now you can NOT use your 401k or IRA funds to buy bitcoins. Pension funds can NOT use their funds to buy bitcoins. An ETF will add much more then the current ~$20 million of market depth to back up the price. The ETF will set the price. Well, let's be clear, no fund manager is going to offer BTC ETF on a 401K portfolio list. If someone has a self-managed IRA where they can invest in anything, they would need to have a huge risk appetite to invest in BTC. If they did discover it somehow and did research, why wouldn't they buy direct and avoid taxation on earnings? Because IRAs aren't taxed until you withdraw from them and a huge number of people just have their IRA as savings, and nothing else, because, who knew, the rest got taxxed away. ~.~ |
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I dont actually belive this. But one could argue that goxxers will remove their bids and buy the etf if gox rallies, making the etf functionally the same as a gox dump.
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So i dont use gox anymore.
But what exactly CAN you do on there right now? Exchange non-withdrawable non-transferrablr usd for bitcoins? Thats it? No codes, no merchant services, no aurumxchange, no withdraws? Wtf
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Or you can see it as a pseudo-sell of 200k coins.
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Apple had a better operating system than Microsoft, but Windows took 90% of the market.
Betamax was better than VCR, but Betamax wasn't widely adopted.
Bitcoin is the brand name in the space. The coins have no intrinsic value except market acceptance. So being in the leader position is huge. Most of the ecosystem is being built for bitcoin, not the alt currencies.
Perhaps LTC stands a chance of being a complementary currency.
And do you know the reason WHY ms-dos/windows took more market share than mac? They didnt try to take the hardware as well, and thus had THIRD PARTIES selling their OS for them. Do you know how I learned about bitcoin? Not by meeting a bitcoin miner, not by visiting btc-e and checking the exchange rate, but by needing an alternative to libertyreserve, visiting a Third Party merchant website, and seeing that they gave a discount if you bought with bitcoins. All the alt coins are crap because they arent the standard. As if it isnt hard enough to start a fucking currency with no government or traditional financial support people have to go around bickering over whether to use scrypt or sha. Really? Its practically the same, just take the first one so cryptocurrency critics cant turn around when litecoin or whatever coin and say "itll die out just like bitcoin" and work together for once in our fucking lives and make something actually happen. Dont bitch and try to be hipsters among a group of hipsters and use an alt coin just for the sake of being a hipster. If ANYTHING can kill cryptocurrencies as a concept, its the introduction of too many of them. Plz stop it already and try to aid the one cryptocurrency that has the greatest chance od success because its actually, you know, USED. |
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Even if the camp BX story is false i figured I may as well put in a buy 100 bitcoin bid at 10 cents at all the exchanges I have money in just to be safe, lol.
At least make it 2 bucks, No sense in being greedy, you'd be kicking yourself if they missed you by, say, 50 cents.  Only have 10 bucks in camp bx though  |
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https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5973971I find these comments quite interesting: > Anyone know how to estimate whether there's enough liquidity in existing bitcoin exchages to support it, and allow them to track the price accurately in the ETF?
Yes. The daily volume in the ETF must be a small fraction of the daily volume in the underlying asset, and it must be possible to both buy & short the underlying.
So net net: An ETF is incredibly premature. This is the Winklevii taking serious advantage of folks who don't understand ETFs in depth.
It's clear that many folks don't understand how the price dynamics of ETFs with underlying securities operate.
A share in an OETF is a fixed basket of securities. If the price of the ETF differs from the basket, the ETF share creation/redemption mechanism drives the price back to the fair-market value of the basket.
If the price of the ETF share is too high: Market participants will short the ETF and buy the underlying. They will then take the underlying to the ETF admin, who will then create shares thus closing out the short.
If the price of the ETF share is too low: Market participants will buy the ETF and short the underlying. They will then take the shares to the ETF admin, who will then redeem the ETF share for the underlying, thus closing out the short.
Without the ability to short the underlying, there is no mechanism to maintain equilibrium in the share price of the ETF. The second statement isnt true. There is no way of doing direct arbitrage but its still possible. You can just take the shares directly to the admin to settle them. There is just risk of extreem decline in value of underlying asset while you're doing so. A true ETF will stay pegged to the underlying within reason assuming nothing weird is going on. |
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Even if the camp BX story is false i figured I may as well put in a buy 100 bitcoin bid at 10 cents at all the exchanges I have money in just to be safe, lol.
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No, I mean, clearly they'd need to issue more shares of the ETP, meaning they'd need more BTC right?
Correct they would however that wouldn't happen until after IPO which I think people should realistically expect it to take at best a large number of months. If the ETP is popular and demand forces issuing additional shares that may be bullish on the "physical BTC" price in ... 2014. I can wait till 2014. As long as its before spring next year I'm perfectly OK |
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Easy Bitcoin Spring. Fiat Summer. Bitcoin fall? Maybe we'll have to wait till next spring. But with the way things are going, who knows.  Don't worry, the bernankster's got our back. He'll do something stupid in the coming months. Or the bankster cartels. They'll try to bail-in another country with depositor funds or something. Bitcoin Fall, or Fall of Bitcoin?  In any case, logically it makes sense for Bitcoin to be down now because there is some serious deflationary risk in the USD. When the USD hops back on inflation express which it will eventually have to do thanks to all the QE (I guess it will happen when the FED decides to sell its bonds) then it makes sense to take out a loan and buy whatever (including bitcoin) assuming whatever (bitcoin) won't be inflated (which it won't) like the USD. |
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Thats because honest people vote that they don't know when they don't know.
I don't know either, but I lied and voted $90-$100.
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Ok great. Now the question becomes (at least in the medium to short term): Do the Winklevoss dudes use this as a way of selling their Bitcoins with flare, or are they actually buying new bitcoins to finance this?
My guess (just a guess) is the reason for acquiring their 200,000 BTC quietly and without a splash last summer was specifically for this or something like it. There is a lot of regulatory headache to launch an ETF. If one wanted to simply divest there are easier, quicker, and cheaper ways to do it. I wouldn't expect them to do any panic buying driving up the price prior to an IPO though. Since a S-1 is a public document my guess is they made sure to have the necessary BTC before filing the S-1. No, I mean, clearly they'd need to issue more shares of the ETP, meaning they'd need more BTC right? |
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Quickly can somebody tell me what this is:
Exchange Traded NOTE (i.e, troll derivative but I'll still probably be trading it)
or
Exchange Traded FUND (which means that its actually backed by bitcoins) Per the S-1 the trust is obligated to hold 0.2 BTC per share outstanding so it would be an ETF. Trust Structure
The Trust is a common law trust, formed on [ ], 2013 under New York law pursuant to the Trust Agreement between the Sponsor and the Trustee (“Trust Agreement”), which sets forth the respective rights and duties of the Sponsor and the Trustee and establishes the segregated custody account of the Trust that will be used to hold the Bitcoins deposited with the Trust (“Trust Custody Account”). The Trust holds “Bitcoins,” a digital commodity based on an open source cryptographic protocol existing on the online, end-user-to-end-user network hosting the public transaction ledger, known as the “Blockchain,” and the source code comprising the basis for the cryptographic and algorithmic protocols governing the issuance of and transactions in Bitcoins (the “Bitcoin Network”). The Trust is expected from time to time to issue Baskets in exchange for deposits of Bitcoins and to distribute Bitcoins in connection with redemptions of Baskets. The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the performance of a weighted average price of Bitcoins (“Blended Bitcoin Price”), less the Trust’s expenses. The Sponsor believes that, for many investors, the Shares will represent a cost-effective and convenient means to access exposure to Bitcoins. The material terms of the Trust Agreement are discussed in greater detail under the section “Description of the Trust Agreement.” The Shares represent units of fractional undivided beneficial interest in and ownership of the Trust and are expected to be traded under the ticker symbol “[TICKER]” on the [EXCHANGE]. Ok great. Now the question becomes (at least in the medium to short term): Do the Winklevoss dudes use this as a way of selling their Bitcoins with flare, or are they actually buying new bitcoins to finance this? |
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