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421  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Ripple Giveaway! on: May 07, 2013, 10:02:16 PM
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422  Economy / Speculation / Re: CFTC Regulating Bitcoin, ZOMG Crash, sell on this news. on: May 07, 2013, 03:23:17 PM
Tuition costs go up EVERY YEAR.

Tell me about it.

423  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 06, 2013, 08:56:36 PM
Since Friday I've literally allocated a bunch of Bitcoins to the following (super dumb sounding) strategy. Whenever the price drops below a round number (within reason, it has to have been above that number for a "while" and a wall of some reasonable previously must have existed there), I sell immediately. Then, I buy the coins back for $5 cheaper (one time I bailed and bought too early, but it turns out I could have waited anyway). Ridiculously enough this strategy has worked like a charm and not once failed, though one time I was waiting for a while. Lets see how long this keeps up.
424  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 06, 2013, 08:09:00 PM
"That's not what "regulate" means. It means when exchanges get legal protections, and scammers can be prosecuted. CFTC watches over exchanges of commodities, and makes sure people aren't running ponzi schemes etc. This sort of thing is important for BTC to make it onto mainstream forex markets."

So the news is bullish? Anyone has any opinions?

... "Regulate" means "Instead of people that actually use the service don't deciding whats a scam and what isn't, we will." How that could ever be interpreted as bullish for anything ever is beyond me.
425  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 06, 2013, 04:30:23 AM
Wall at $120 growing.


Lol thats the best gif.
I wouldn't have done the three point turn. Right on up over the curb for me, gentle, don't want to blow my tires, but damn no way I'm bothering with a three pointer, AHHA.
I like the way for the first like 10 seconds he's just sitting there like 'WTF' and then he finally realizes that its probably time to go.
426  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 06, 2013, 04:29:25 AM
Y'all are being trolled  Grin
427  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 06, 2013, 04:23:53 AM
Wall at $120 growing.


Lol thats the best gif.
428  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 05, 2013, 04:57:28 PM
The forex-broker plus500 has now opened for bitcoin trading. 4:1 leverage, someone is going to get very rich or poor...

Even though they also allow shorting, I think this is great for the price, as they accept credit card deposits and is a very easy way for a lot of people to get into bitcoins.

Its got UK offices/oversight, but from what i can make out, it doesn't allow deposit or withdrawal of BTC, just fiat.

If you can't deposit or withdraw BTC, how do you know you are trading BTC?

If this is UK based, it could be good for me. I'll have to look into it.

You wouldn't be trading BTC. You just place a bet on the price going up or down.

So, say 100 people each put 1000GBP in, buy bitcoins, price quadruples then they cash out, where does the GBP from? Exchanges need to be open at both ends and the exchange just takes a cut from transactions otherwise you have currency supply issues. Which could have a detrimental effect on the price, as can be seen on some of the exchanges where it is hard to get USD in.

The GBP comes from the same place the GBP in your local bank or brokerage comes from: debt. Its completely up to the "exchange" to decide where they get the money to pay off that debt.

This isn't an exchange, this is a brokerage. You aren't trading actual BTC, you are trading a derivative, i.e, debt.
429  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 05, 2013, 04:32:02 PM
The forex-broker plus500 has now opened for bitcoin trading. 4:1 leverage, someone is going to get very rich or poor...

Even though they also allow shorting, I think this is great for the price, as they accept credit card deposits and is a very easy way for a lot of people to get into bitcoins.

Its got UK offices/oversight, but from what i can make out, it doesn't allow deposit or withdrawal of BTC, just fiat.

If you can't deposit or withdraw BTC, how do you know you are trading BTC?

If this is UK based, it could be good for me. I'll have to look into it.

You aren't trading BTC. You are trading a pieces of paper that say that the brokerage will pay you the price of some amount of btc X days in the future.
430  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 05, 2013, 03:18:36 PM


Best chart of all time.
431  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 05, 2013, 05:11:20 AM
bearish wedge coming to a close right now. midnight dump?

4-hour scale:

-===-



Dude, thats not how wedges work -.-
No steady downtrend of volume and the slope of the center of the opening to the point is basically a trend line.

Honestly, at this point people are just drawing lines in places.
432  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market Depth Should Not Be Reported Period on: May 04, 2013, 01:33:02 AM

From a liberty purist point of view, my devil's advocate position, more info - the better.
Not necessarily. From a liberty purist point of view the exchanger should be free to do what makes its business the most profitable as that usually entails the maximum gain for the minimum amount of wasted resources. The gaming of the system market depth encourages is a MASSIVE waste of resources.
433  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market Depth Should Not Be Reported Period on: May 04, 2013, 01:31:03 AM
doesn't making the information available make the market more efficient, in the EMH sense?

Yes, except thats mostly wrong anyway. Trading, just like any other game, is all about knowing more than your opponent. By going on the orderbook, you display information to your opponent, and thus screw yourself over. Systems are only stable when they reward actions that benefit the system, rather than hurt it. MtGox has created an exceedingly unstable system because it rewards damaging the system. As long as the exchanger system is set up in this way, Bitcoin will fail whenever it gets too much attention. EMH is a terribad theory in any case, though.
434  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market Depth Should Not Be Reported Period on: May 04, 2013, 01:26:34 AM
Good points but I don't think anyone will use an exchange that does not report its order book.


Why? You think people will go "Hey, that looks like a cool exchange, oh wait, I can't view the fake walls that people put up, nvm I'm going back to gox?"
435  Economy / Speculation / Market Depth Should Not Be Reported Period on: May 04, 2013, 01:10:15 AM
Reasons:
1) Discourages putting in orders ahead of time:
If I am a big seller I can loose my potential to buy if I put in a buy/sell wall ahead of time, because people will outbid me by a couple of cents and I get screwed. It makes much more sense to put up many mini-walls every time a price hits a value. This rewards buyers with bots, and screws over normal users.
2) Encouragement of bots means greater lag since rather than one big order, many small orders are entered. This causes a harmful self-feeding cycle as bots pile in as lag increases and their buy/sell targets are hit, causing yet more lag.
3) Lack of market orders ahead of time increases instability because the buy/sell walls aren't there to support price if, for some reason, the bots cannot access the trading engine. This can happen for a variety of reasons.
4) Means that users with a huge amount of money in their brokerage accounts can put up huge buy/sell walls in an attempt to manipulate price. Along with the previous reasons, it essentially encourages people to put up fake buy/sell walls and discourages people to actually put up real ones.
5) If you are reporting data that is clearly fake, why report it at all? Take away the need for trading bots, take away the potential for fake bid/ask walls to scare noobs into panic/sells. Just don't report market depth, period.

It would be best if a market maker created a bitcoin "dark pool" and didn't report anything other than bid/ask and potentially volume. The market maker would take steps to reduce slippage on his own, potentially coming in to prevent slippage within one order at his own risk if needed, compensating the risk by taking spreads as profit.
436  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 04, 2013, 12:49:36 AM
I predict another weekend, like that one a couple of weeks ago, hovering $95-$100. It will go up to $100 briefly everybody will think its rallying then it will go down to $95 and everybody will fall asleep.
437  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 03, 2013, 02:00:45 AM

I think bitcoin does not have much future until people in masse abandon mtgox.


Basically this. Literally every downtrend in the history of everything has either been caused, or accentuated, by mtgox noobing.
438  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 03, 2013, 12:47:19 AM
Few large ask walls left. Big coin dump coming or they are throwing in the towel. Should be moving back up soon. Nice time to buy. Smiley

I'm so confused. Huh

And now this: http://gawker.com/massive-bitcoin-business-partnership-devolves-into-75-487857656

Fuck.

I love the "weirdness" link.
439  Economy / Speculation / Re: Call the low? on: May 03, 2013, 12:13:51 AM
$90 is low for obvious reasons.
440  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: The ALT currency FTC CNC, dilution, effect on BTC, on: May 03, 2013, 12:11:20 AM
Just give the other coins time to hit their peak and then burst. They are the true bubble, and if they suppress BTC's price in the short term, i'm not complaining. I'll be mad though when actual RESELLERS start accepting alt-coins, or gox. Not when a couple of troll exchanges use them as a sort of neo-HYIP.

The only ones I really have any respect for is Litecoin and Terracoin. All the others are Noob Coins. Even litecoin is sort of dumb.
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