Bitcoin Forum
May 25, 2024, 10:00:23 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 [19] 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 »
361  Economy / Securities / Re: Shorting on GLBSE on: May 28, 2012, 06:21:00 PM
did you sell a lot of giga just now?

I think "a lot" would be an understatement.

Other miners were also sold down.

Whoever did this was not very smart... imo...

Unlikely; someone wouldn't have invested to sell them like that. Someone needed to pull out very fast - but why?
362  Economy / Securities / Re: Shorting on GLBSE on: May 28, 2012, 06:18:15 PM
did you sell a lot of giga just now?

I think "a lot" would be an understatement.
363  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin in space. on: May 28, 2012, 06:15:18 PM
I'd fully support this initiative, but I suspect a significant amount of capital would be necessary.
364  Economy / Services / Re: Gigamining / Teramining on: May 28, 2012, 06:07:12 PM
might have been an accident, ive sold things way too low before with a slip :/

Perhaps, but I think that's unlikely. Hopefully GLBSE hasn't been hacked...
365  Economy / Securities / Re: GLBSE disaster planning on: May 28, 2012, 06:06:37 PM
Right now GLBSE is down. Are you testing contingency plans ;-) ?

Someone just dumped a ridiculous number of gigamining shares; I suspect Nefario took it down on purpose to determine if someone had hacked in.
366  Economy / Securities / Re: GLBSE disaster planning on: May 28, 2012, 04:11:14 PM
Excellent, great work Nefario!
367  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] Kronos Floating Bond, IPO on June 15th on: May 28, 2012, 06:58:23 AM
Subscribed. Are you reserving a certain number of bonds for the GLBSE open market IPO?
368  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] BFLS - Bitcoin Mining & Sales on: May 28, 2012, 06:54:41 AM
Very soon, waiting on a last batch of units now.  Hoping by the end of the week.

Any update on this? Those of us with futures shares are on the edge of our seats. Wink
369  Other / Meta / New Forum Software: End the Stagnancy on: May 27, 2012, 01:33:46 AM
No matter how much you beg, pray, or pay, perfection isn't going to float to you on the ground gift-wrapped with a nice fat transaction fee for expedient delivery. But reaching gets you a little closer to the sky.

In short, we're getting nowhere with the move to new forum software, and we may end up waiting indefinitely for something that might not ever exist, much less exist now. While no solution exists to my knowledge that offers all of the requested features, there are many programs which would be a significant improvement over SMF.

This is not a whining thread. I'm not demanding anything, I'm not calling doom, I'm not issuing ultimatums that no one cares about. I'm asking what I, as a community member, and more broadly we, as a community, can do to move this forward in a realistic time frame. I'm not suggesting that we give up our initiative for custom software, only that we make progress now.

I suggest we implement an interim solution that improves the forum, though it may not provide all that a custom one would, and continue the bounty for custom software. This would provide two main advantages over continuing the trek up a hamster wheel: improved features and usability and tangible progress, both of significant importance and both immediate. I have never administrated a forum as large as this, nor have I ever transferred a forum from one management system to another, but it seems a transition to pre-existing, documented software from pre-existing, documented software should not be particularly hard to implement. Summarily, this would be an immediate solution that would provide significant improvement, stem the tide of forum-bashing, and be moderately easy to install.

Obviously I cannot do any of this alone. So, my questions are:

To moderators and administrators: Are you willing to pursue something akin to this? If so, what can we do to help?

And to users: The two I immediately thought of were vBulletin and Invision Power Board, but what forum software would you suggest?

370  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: BTC REWARD FOR HELP --- BAMT boot issue, machine freezes after trying to boot on: May 27, 2012, 12:55:52 AM
Cross-posting, try this.
371  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: 5 BTC BOUNTY --- BAMT boot issue. on: May 27, 2012, 12:54:34 AM
Don't give up yet!

First of all, format the drive using a half-decent program instead of Windows' built in junk. Download bootice here, extract the rar, and open the executable. Select your drive in the drop-down menu and click "Parts Manage". Click "Reformat USB Disk", select "USB-HDD mode (Single Partition)", and format the drive.

Now burn the image file to the drive. Download the win32diskimager binary here. Open the .exe (ignore any warnings), select your BAMT .img file (NOT a converted .iso), select your drive, and click "Write". When writing is complete, click "Exit".

Now insert the USB drive into your mining machine. At this point, you should be able to see and boot from it. If not, enter your BIOS and look for anything relating to USB boot. (An "Enable"/"Disable" toggle for example) Unfortunately I can't give specific instructions as BIOS's vary wildly, but it should be pretty apparent. Enable USB booting and you should be good to go.

Hopefully that will fix it. This isn't a Linux issue at all; probably just an issue of formatting and writing the drive correctly. Good luck!

372  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: [10 BTC Bounty] Setting up ONE bitforce single on BAMT w/ 4xGPUs on: May 27, 2012, 12:43:21 AM
I'll give this a try, with Linux instructions. Wink

Commands enclosed in blocks are to be run at a terminal (through a monitor or SSH, doesn't matter)

1. Stop whatever is currently running.
Code:
coldreboot
and then
Code:
/etc/init.d/mine stop
after the reboot.

2. Modify /etc/bamt/bamt.conf to run your hardware.
Code:
nano /etc/bamt/bamt.conf

a. Find the line (Ctrl-W to search) that says "cgminer: 0". Change that to "cgminer: 1". (without the quotes)

b. Find the line below that starts with "cgminer_opts:". Change it to, substituting your username and password:
"cgminer_opts: --api-listen -G -S /dev/ttyUSB0 -o http://mine1.btcguild.com:8332 -u user -p pass -I 9"

Optional (if you want CGminer to manage everything)
c. Set all your GPUs to use CGminer. For each GPU (gpu0 through gpu3 in your case) change the line stating "cgminer: 0" to "cgminer: 1". If you were using phoenix2, make sure to change "phoenix2: 1" to "phoenix2: 0" as well.

d. Save file and exit. Ctrl-O, Enter, Ctrl-X.

3. Restart mining.
Code:
/etc/init.d/mine restart

If this all works correctly, you should have everything running, visible by gpumon and the web interface, and manageable by BAMT standard commands.

Disclaimer: I do not own a Single, so this is untested. AFAIK it should work, but it's quite possible I missed something.
373  Economy / Securities / Re: (GLBSE) TYGRR.BOND-P 6.8% weekly uninsured pass though bond to BTCST on: May 27, 2012, 12:16:03 AM
I'm sorry, I still fairly new to this but why does the GLBSE site say "no dividends paid" but it does say in the contract that it pays 5%, yet here you say 6.8? I'd like to consider purchasing some but this has me fairly confused.

The GLBSE page is a history of past dividends. Goat just hasn't paid any yet; he will.

The actual rate is 6.8%. Contracts are immutable, so Goat cannot change it.
374  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MORE Pirate Pass Through Bonds! on: May 26, 2012, 09:46:06 PM

(Patrick, if you feel this discussion is OT, just say so and we'll stop.)

Actually it was quite interesting to wake this morning and see where it had evolved to.  Even more interesting to hear people claim I/we were losing money when at a simple level the tangible coins flow out the other end into people's pockets.  (and perhaps envious that I wasn't around when someone decided to sell div shares at 1.0)

The overall point, is that if you only have a few coins, and do not have a BS&T account, there are a few ways of gaining access to high returns.  We have seen a growth in competing products, but these have taken five or six weeks to come to market, and at least one of them has folded before launch.  Some are backed by well known and reputable members of the forum, others not so well known, and a range of rates/features. 

Despite this, we have still sold 3000 PPT.A bonds this week, have 4000 coins in reserves, found a few places where we broke GLBSE, raised a lot of awareness, had some interesting announcements from Pirate, paid dividends, redeemed two rounds of bonds, and delivered some advantage to a lot of people (I think there were over 100 cleared bids yesterday - not sure how many individuals).

Tomorrow we pay another dividend 0.0289 BTC/share to 9000 shares so the recipients of those payments are not necessarily losing money on PPT. 

Math can do a lot of things, including "proving" logical impossibilities. For example:

Let a = b.
Then a^2 = a*b.
Then 2a^2 = a^2 + a*b.
Then 2a^2 - 2ab = a^2 + ab - 2ab.
Consequently 2a^2 - 2ab = a^2 - ab.
Factoring, 2(a^2 - ab) = 1(a^2 - ab).
Divide by (a^2 - ab), and...
2 = 1

(There is (sort of) an error in the above, but most people miss it. See if you can guess it!)

More seriously, we are not questioning the financial viability of PPT assuming Pirate does not default, only the less-than-optimal profitability in comparison to directly investing 960 BTC. Essentially, if you have 100% guaranteed investment opportunities, one that pays 1% per week, and another that pays 2%, both make money, but the second is the better choice financially.

I like what you're doing here, and you have my kudos. (And you certainly started a trend.) Don't get me wrong, I think PPT has had a positive impact and I wouldn't want you to cease it. Some of us just like spending our Friday nights doing math. Wink
375  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MORE Pirate Pass Through Bonds! on: May 26, 2012, 09:34:56 PM
Less loss if BS&T defaults.

Please explain this. They believe in Pirate and want to maximize their profit, right? They are not risking the (1 + x) BTC / share, it's not their money. You are risking that money, they only risk the insurance.

In this round, for example, if they only invest 3000 BTC into Pirate and he defaults, they will only lose 960 - 113.95 = 846.05 BTC.
If they invest all 3113.95 BTC, and he defaults, they will lose the full 960 BTC.

Note that I'm not saying that investing that additional BTC with Pirate is a bad idea, I'm just pointing out that it is a rational possibility. Holding that 113.95 BTC outside of Pirate decreases their profits if Pirate pays, but decreases their losses if he defaults:

Assuming the 113.95 BTC above the 3000 BTC is not invested with Pirate and not earning any interest (unlikely), if Pirate defaults, they will lose 960 - 113.95 BTC = 846.05 BTC - but only if he defaults before the first payment.
If he defaults after the first payment, they will lose 960 - 113.95 - (.07 * 3000) = 636.05 BTC.
After the second payment, 960 - 113.95 - (.14 * 3000) = 426.05 BTC.
After the third payment, 960 - 113.95 - (.21 * 3000) = 216.05 BTC.

If he does not default, they will make 3113.95 - 3000 = 113.95 BTC

An investment of 960 BTC into Pirate would lose 960 BTC if Pirate defaults before the first payment.
960 - (.07 * 960) = 892.8 BTC loss if Pirate defaults after the first payment.
960 - (.14 * 960) = 825.6 BTC loss if Pirate defaults after the second payment.
960 - (.21 * 960) = 758.4 BTC loss if Pirate defaults after the third payment.
And finally a .28 * 960 = 268.8 BTC profit if Pirate does not default.

This acts effectively as a partial hedge against their own investment, decreasing variance. Think of it as a similar effect to taking a slight fee at a PPS pool in return for more reliable payouts. (Not a literal analogy, but it might help clarify.)

376  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MORE Pirate Pass Through Bonds! on: May 26, 2012, 09:08:05 PM
Oh, we were discussing break-even in comparison to simply investing 960 BTC with Pirate, not general break-even for a non-default.

Who is investing this 960 BTC?

The PPT group. When they issued PPT.A, they put 960 BTC in the insurance fund. We are stating that it would have been more profitable to simply invest that 960 BTC in Pirate.

Because PPT would earn more if they took the 960 btc and invested directly with Pirate since they are risking to lose that anyways if pirate defaults.

Sure, but if Pirate defaults they will loose 960 to you, not to Pirate. If they invest the insurance to Pirate they'll loose 1920 since they promised to pay you 0.32 BTC / share.

Investing the 960 BTC in Pirate instead of running PPT.A, not in addition to.

Case 1 - Sell 1 share of PPT at 1+x (if sold at 1.038 then x=.038)
  no default: PPT makes x+.03 (.03 is the extra you get for compounding)

You seem to assume they'll invest no more than one BTC / share. If they sell for more than 1 BTC / share, why wouldn't they invest it all?

Less loss if BS&T defaults.

(Patrick, if you feel this discussion is OT, just say so and we'll stop.)
377  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MORE Pirate Pass Through Bonds! on: May 26, 2012, 06:27:24 PM
Can you show the math behind that break-even value?

1.28 / 1.07^4

Oh, we were discussing break-even in comparison to simply investing 960 BTC with Pirate, not general break-even for a non-default.
378  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MORE Pirate Pass Through Bonds! on: May 26, 2012, 04:04:22 PM
Yes, this only is true if pirate defaults within the first week. If pirate defaults after that, PPT will have made more money to cover their loses. In order to do a better apples to apples comparison, it's easier to use compounded interest in this scenario since then it doesn't matter when pirate defaults. 7% interest compounded for 4 weeks is about 31%.

If pirate doesn't default, pirate will payout 1.31 to PPT but PPT only pays 1.28 to bond holders, so PPT makes an addition .03 per share. That's only if no default.

Case 1 - Sell 3000 shares of PPT.A at 1.038
  no default: PPT makes 3000 * (.038 + .03) = 204
  default: PPT loses 960 - 114 = 846

Case 2 - Put 846 btc with pirate
  no default: PPT makes 846 * .31 = 262
  default: PPT loses 846

Difference is 262 - 204 = 58
So if you are do compounding interests, you only lose 58 bitcoins for this round.

I concur, albeit only if they are compounding interest, which may not be the case.

Aren't you missing something? PPT didn't choose to sell the bonds as cheap as they did - they had probably hoped they would gain more in the initial bond auction. Therefore, they won't be making much of a profit for this round. It's about as simple as an eBay seller putting $100 items up for auction at a starting price of $1.

You are entirely correct - we're just trying to figure out if this particular round of bonds was profitable.

If doing compounding interest, the break-even value is 1.0528

If doing compounding interest, the break-even value is 0.9765


As far as I know, they are not using your money for the insurance, they are using their own.

If they invest all the 3113.95 they will get 4081.75 in four weeks. That's 1.36 per bond. After buy-back, they will have made (1.36 - 1.28) * 3000 = 240 BTC.

In other words, they are risking 0.32 * 3000 = 960 BTC, and if Pirate don't default they gets 240 / 960 = 25 % profit.

Can you show the math behind that break-even value?

If they invest all 3113.95 BTC and Pirate does not default, they will make 25% profit off 960 BTC held in insurance versus 31% if they simply invested 960 BTC in Pirate in the first place.
379  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: (GLBSE) TYGRR.BOND-A 1MHS PPS perpetual bonds. on: May 26, 2012, 06:43:30 AM
(Moved from other thread)

For the sake of getting this thread back OT dispute resolution, I'll try to mediate.

bitcoiners, from your posts, it sounds to me like you were concerned when the dividend was not payed on time and wished to sell back your bonds. The dividends have now been paid. If you still wish to obtain a refund, I would suggest you personal message Goat. Since you are requesting a service not provided for in the contract, usual protocol would dictate that it is your responsibility to contact the bond issuer and resolve the dispute. Normal protocol would involve doing this by private message, as it is a conversation with no general relevance to TyGrr.Bond-A bonds. If you do wish to make your frustrations public, there is indeed a Trading Discussion forum for exactly this kind of topic; you can find it here.

A general suggestion: If you're making accusations, make sure they're backed up in fact. For example:

Still waiting......
DON'T BUY ANYTHING FROM THIS PERSON.  He WILL change the rules and then say it's your fault.

[...]

I think I've made myself perfectly clear.  The small amount of BTC I have invested and the unwillingness of the bond issuer to buy back their own bonds proves how deep they are swimming up to their own eyeballs in debt.

I perused the whole thread and could not find any statement by Goat that he would buy back bonds at .3 upon request. Bond issuers are not obligated to do anything not explicitly stated in their contracts.

To both of you: Good luck; I hope this can be resolved to everyone's satisfaction.
380  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MORE Pirate Pass Through Bonds! on: May 26, 2012, 06:28:08 AM
They don't need to, but it doesn't affect the numbers, because they have to pay it out if pirate defaults. You can strike out the line (which I did in the quote above) and just compare the 2 cases. Instead of selling 3000 shares at 1.038, they should instead invest 960 btc with pirate because the profit would be greater with the same loss if pirate defaults.

If what you are saying is that they should do case 1 AND case 2 at the same time, then that means if pirate defaults they will lose 1920 bitcoins. Then in that case, why not just put 1920 btc with pirate instead?

I agree putting 1920 BTC with Pirate is financially more profitable than this round of PPT bonds in all cases, but I'm not sure how that's relevant - no investment needed to be made initially by any of them other than the 960 BTC in the PPT fund. (PPT.A is simply being reused, no 8 BTC asset creation fee)

More importantly, we're ignoring a few key aspects of this.

Assuming the 113.95 BTC above the 3000 BTC is not invested with Pirate and not earning any interest (unlikely), if Pirate defaults, they will lose 960 - 113.95 BTC = 846.05 BTC - but only if he defaults before the first payment.
If he defaults after the first payment, they will lose 960 - 113.95 - (.07 * 3000) = 636.05 BTC.
After the second payment, 960 - 113.95 - (.14 * 3000) = 426.05 BTC.
After the third payment, 960 - 113.95 - (.21 * 3000) = 216.05 BTC.

If he does not default, they will make 3113.95 - 3000 = 113.95 BTC

An investment of 960 BTC into Pirate would lose 960 BTC if Pirate defaults before the first payment.
960 - (.07 * 960) = 892.8 BTC loss if Pirate defaults after the first payment.
960 - (.14 * 960) = 825.6 BTC loss if Pirate defaults after the second payment.
960 - (.21 * 960) = 758.4 BTC loss if Pirate defaults after the third payment.
And finally a .28 * 960 = 268.8 BTC profit if Pirate does not default.

Effectively, the first usage of 960 BTC is better if Pirate defaults before all 4 payments, the second if he does not default. I'm not necessarily arguing for PPT's choice here, but it seems to me to have a similar effect to a partial hedge. They make less if Pirate pays out, but lose less if he defaults.




Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 [19] 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 »
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!