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I bet they have regulators breathing down their neck. Nobody was particularly happy about their business when it started. They've bent over backward rather than be blown away since they started. Impossible to have a business that isn't somewhat compromised in a situation like that.
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Ah, looks like I need to go through everything on the list and then see if there are any other possible candidates.
Thanks Canary
edit: Almost done, I found a couple things on my first look through. Thanks to everyone helping me keep updated. It looks like we're on track.
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So what your table seems to show is not many of the currently planned units are forecast to make profit or if so for a short period of time. There are many factors that could easily change those figures however it doesn't encourage someone to place any new orders with any of these guys. Unless the profit is not to come from actual mining but flipping pre-orders, group buy shares etc. In any case thanks for researching and providing this data it does help in making decisions. If its not too late yet feels like it will be by the time I figure all this out  It looks like there are some people getting miners and maybe some chips at this point. As soon as I get back I'll start looking around again to see if I can put some more green on the chart. If Avalon starts delivering that would make a huge swath. Even ones that you think will have around 0 ROI may be worth buying. Especially since this is just for the first year. Some people really want to mine, and even if they only get as much bitcoin as they might from just buying them directly they'll have more fun with the computer. I appreciate the effort, any way you could make a similar list for the DIY bring-your-own-chips developers based on their full assembly costs (minus chip cost)?
SebastianJu has a great list that shows this information very clearly. I actually was very close to making a separate list until I found his. It's in the same category as this one. (Custom Hardware) |
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lol.. yeah thanks. I've had to change their info twice now because I had to revert to an old version of spreadsheet.
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FUD everywhere by people who can't do math.
1. these are not batch #1,2 or 3 units.
2. all the openWRT firmware is burnt from a single image in batches,
3. the openWRT is used in more than just production units.
4. all burn-in is 24 or more hours, you all think we seriously only would have 700+ bitcoins if they were mining? LOL
I can't believe I'm repeating myself by saying we are not mining with batch #2 or #3 units.
5. complains will just lead into refunds, since clearly people are not happy with Avalon ASIC.
personally I'd love to issue these refunds so these people can go find the next thing to complain about and I can get some peace n quiet.
6. I'm going back to deal with trade-in and damaged orders.
Asked and answered... next problem please. What does this have to do with math? FUD doesn't necessarily apply here either, since there is no obvious connection to the OP and any competing company.
1. People say a lot of things, this isn't necessarily proof, so please stop acting like we are idiots because we don't take your word. It's failed us plenty. Proof?
2. Very reasonable and believable, sometimes when people say things there is logic behind it that makes it easy to believe.
3. "
4. Again this is just on your say so. However people have been wanting to hear this, so I'm sure many will find this comforting. You might need to put someone on part time media control, just so you can keep up with these types of discussions. It's very reasonable for people to start questioning when things don't go as planned.
5. This is horrible business practice and should be stopped by any company that cares to maintain the respect of the consumer base.
6. Awesome, hope some press releases make it out into a wide enough audience that you don't need to constantly waste your time with us.
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FUD everywhere by people who can't do math.
1. these are not batch #1,2 or 3 units.
2. all the openWRT firmware is burnt from a single image in batches,
3. the openWRT is used in more than just production units.
4. all burn-in is 24 or more hours, you all think we seriously only would have 700+ bitcoins if they were mining? LOL
I can't believe I'm repeating myself by saying we are not mining with batch #2 or #3 units.
5. complains will just lead into refunds, since clearly people are not happy with Avalon ASIC.
personally I'd love to issue these refunds so these people can go find the next thing to complain about and I can get some peace n quiet.
6. I'm going back to deal with trade-in and damaged orders.
What does this have to do with math? FUD doesn't necessarily apply here either, since there is no obvious connection to the OP and any competing company. 1. People say a lot of things, this isn't necessarily proof, so please stop acting like we are idiots because we don't take your word. It's failed us plenty. Proof? 2. Very reasonable and believable, sometimes when people say things there is logic behind it that makes it easy to believe. 3. " 4. Again this is just on your say so. However people have been wanting to hear this, so I'm sure many will find this comforting. You might need to put someone on part time media control, just so you can keep up with these types of discussions. It's very reasonable for people to start questioning when things don't go as planned. 5. This is horrible business practice and should be stopped by any company that cares to maintain the respect of the consumer base. 6. Awesome, hope some press releases make it out into a wide enough audience that you don't need to constantly waste your time with us. This is pathetic. If you're still able to retrieve your nose, I'd recommend it. I'm not saying you need to attack them, I'm still of the opinion that what they are fairly honest. Hold them responsible for their promises though. |
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While I appreciate your work making this,
some of your calculations are just dumb.
Are you getting paid or something to put soo much dissinfo?
Wow, ok. I forgot to multiply chip cost by USD before adding it in. While I appreciate your work making this, some of your calculations are just dumb. Are you getting paid or something to put soo much dissinfo? example: sensei k64 18048MH/s for 3.09BTC (total nonsense as this is without chips) real price is 3.09BTC for assembly and 64x0.079=5.056BTC for chips (best case) 3.09+5.056=8.146BTC 18048/8146=2.21Gh/s per BTC and not 5.848GH/s per BTC rant off.  Thankfully someone noticed this because of obvious miscalculations in missing chips. Yes... "thankfully" accusing me of taking bribes and being dumb. You're both welcome.  Sorry for going off on you andrewsg. I didn't eat right this morning, I think it had much more to do with that than anything you said.
No worries, I appreciate the effort that goes into this and only want to see it improve. Speaking of which, erm, sensei. Thanks! |
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Sorry for going off on you andrewsg. I didn't eat right this morning, I think it had much more to do with that than anything you said. Terrahash has changed there prices to USD, maybe you should change from BTC to USD on the list too?
And a personal question, if you don't mind.
What miners have you invested in?
Unfortunately I took a year off after losing my wallet and not being able to get the GPU's I needed to update my farm. Otherwise I would have put money into Avalon and BFL. I am considering putting an order in with TerraHash when they open. I don't have an order in with KnCMiner, but I've considered it. Everything changes when chips start chipping or someone proves a product and can ramp up production. |
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Based on recent posts, it looks like Terrahash is using Avalon chips, so it doesn't make sense to have their Lead Time be August and all the others be delayed to November. That said, I still don't understand why those are delayed all the way out to November. Based on the Sample Chips being shipped and recent communication from Avalon I don't think they'll be delayed by months.
A lot of people ask for this, but nobody has sent me a link showing that this is a reasonable assumption. I've asked a lot of questions and none have been answered. Well, what about the Terrahash thing. They definitely are using Avalon chips and they're not getting them any sooner than those group buys. It gives a false impression. Just realized I didn't comment on this and came back lol.. you made it first. was going to edit my comment but fine Terrahash ordered chips, and those chips will come in a lot sooner than someone who orders chips right now. This list is about lead time which means the amount of time it takes for the person to get their order from the date ordered. But I did just realize it still says they are taking your chips for the product, so that's not your fault, thanks for pointing that out. Everyone says the chips are made they just have to be sent.. I'm going to move the August time back soon too if there isn't some action here. I just don't see why people think it's reasonable to say the chips will come when the company says they will when this has been proven to be wrong many times in the past. They aren't willing to make reasonable estimates, or even push their estimate out past what they think it should be, knowing full well that there will be problems. |
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Based on recent posts, it looks like Terrahash is using Avalon chips, so it doesn't make sense to have their Lead Time be August and all the others be delayed to November. That said, I still don't understand why those are delayed all the way out to November. Based on the Sample Chips being shipped and recent communication from Avalon I don't think they'll be delayed by months.
A lot of people ask for this, but nobody has sent me a link showing that this is a reasonable assumption. I've asked a lot of questions and none have been answered. OP, it's a good initiative and useful comparison. I think it can be improved quite a lot - especially for newer users. If I can make some suggestions - clean up the text on the first post, and add more information - for example, explain all your assumptions, analysis and opinions. Claimed numbers by manufacturers are "objective" from an observer's point of view, your suspicions on scams, lead times, etc - not so much (not to say they add no value). Explain "Lead time" in your front page post - it has a tremendous impact on profitability numbers - as a matter of fact, we could say that the profitability numbers are heavily affected not by specs, prices and performance of devices, but by your interpretation of lead times. As it stands, those numbers are irrelevant for a buyer looking at buying from a secondary market (and jump preorder queues). This will only get more obvious once people start selling say K16's (in hand) - these could be profitable in hand, but not profitable if you add a 10-week lead time for a new chip order. Maybe add a column showing what the ROI would be "today"? Explain the ROI numbers "with avg. difficulty of" - or provide a link to good explanation / history of diff. As shown, the column label is technically not correct - average diff increase can't be used to calculate profitability reliably. (For example if over the next 3 months we have diff increases of 50% and then for the following 3 months we have increases of 10% the ROI numbers are completely different than if we had 3 months at 10% and then 3 months at 50%, even though your "average diff increase" would stay the same.) I suspect your ROI calculations are not at "average" 9%, etc, as claimed, but actually at constant 9%, etc. Make 1 paragraph for each manufacturer on the list, add the link to the relevant site / thread, use this space as well to explain your assumptions about that specific manufacturer / product. Consider adding a new column for "proof of working unit / demo" to weed out speculation from actual products. Add a bigger disclaimer for the people who are likely to treat this information as fact. Finally, on a personal note - this is of course your thread and you can speculate all you want - but excluding BFL is simply not fair or logical - yes they have horrendous customer service and terrible lead times (and I would not trust them with one satoshi) - but at the very least they have delivered some Jalapenos, and allegedly even a single! I'm not saying you should add a mini-rig to your list - but let's not forget that your list includes some manufacturers who have delivered NOTHING but promises so far. Makes no sense. I don't include companies that are obvious scams. There are many promising companies out there that will produce eventually, and I want to have them on the list. To strike this balance I have to do a lot of research on what the company has said vs done, if their pictures and business model makes sense, a lot of things go into it. I put a link up yesterday that shows that Inaba has no intention of continuing the project. If I'm misreading that I'll change it back. Beside that there is a huge difference between not having proven yourself, and proving yourself untrustworthy. People accept that Avalon will ship on time because they say they will. They have said this a lot, I would accept what they say if it made any sense. Again waiting for people who take me on for this to send a link. As far as my objectivity goes, I am willing to listen to any argument, and have put over 100 hours into just the research to make the table work. I have tried to gauge the sentiment on the forum and balance that with the actual facts I can find. Consider this more of consumer protection than manufacturer advertisement. There is a "Working Unit" column. Calling it constant growth rather than average growth doesn't make the statistic come out any better. My label would have to be something monstrous like, "1 yr ROI with constant difficulty rise of" just doesn't fit. I'll have to make something that is more logical though. I've considered making a huge explanation at some point, you should have seen what I started with here. This is beautiful compared to that mess. I've put a lot of work in, and will continue. Your tone suggests that it's just not good enough. I haven't gotten a single donation. I don't expect to, that's not how the forum works these days. edit- I have been planning to do a lot of the things you mentioned. Your suggestions did help. I had been trying to keep the post short, for instance, and there is no reason for that. |
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Yeah, sometimes my writing seems unreadable. I was intending to show support for your link
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The Noitev K1 is listed in the chart at 2BTC, according to the thread they will be around $100 for 1, cheaper for more.
Oh you're right thanks! Unfortunately I don't know what to think since they are all crossed out at this point. And those are prices without chips so I'm not sure what it would turn out to be. Looking at the thread it seems maybe he took a guess but it didn't turn out to be quite doable. I don't really know what to post at this point, so I'll have to keep it where it's at. I'll post in his thread asking for clarifications. |
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