Based on recent posts, it looks like Terrahash is using Avalon chips, so it doesn't make sense to have their Lead Time be August and all the others be delayed to November. That said, I still don't understand why those are delayed all the way out to November. Based on the Sample Chips being shipped and recent communication from Avalon I don't think they'll be delayed by months.
A lot of people ask for this, but nobody has sent me a link showing that this is a reasonable assumption. I've asked a lot of questions and none have been answered.
OP, it's a good initiative and useful comparison. I think it can be improved quite a lot - especially for newer users.
If I can make some suggestions - clean up the text on the first post, and add more information - for example, explain all your assumptions, analysis and opinions. Claimed numbers by manufacturers are "objective" from an observer's point of view, your suspicions on scams, lead times, etc - not so much (not to say they add no value).
Explain "Lead time" in your front page post - it has a tremendous impact on profitability numbers - as a matter of fact, we could say that the profitability numbers are heavily affected not by specs, prices and performance of devices, but by your interpretation of lead times. As it stands, those numbers are irrelevant for a buyer looking at buying from a secondary market (and jump preorder queues). This will only get more obvious once people start selling say K16's (in hand) - these could be profitable in hand, but not profitable if you add a 10-week lead time for a new chip order. Maybe add a column showing what the ROI would be "today"?
Explain the ROI numbers "with avg. difficulty of" - or provide a link to good explanation / history of diff. As shown, the column label is technically not correct - average diff increase can't be used to calculate profitability reliably. (For example if over the next 3 months we have diff increases of 50% and then for the following 3 months we have increases of 10% the ROI numbers are completely different than if we had 3 months at 10% and then 3 months at 50%, even though your "average diff increase" would stay the same.) I suspect your ROI calculations are not at "average" 9%, etc, as claimed, but actually at constant 9%, etc.
Make 1 paragraph for each manufacturer on the list, add the link to the relevant site / thread, use this space as well to explain your assumptions about that specific manufacturer / product. Consider adding a new column for "proof of working unit / demo" to weed out speculation from actual products.
Add a
bigger disclaimer for the people who are likely to treat this information as fact.
Finally, on a personal note - this is of course your thread and you can speculate all you want - but excluding BFL is simply not fair or logical - yes they have horrendous customer service and terrible lead times (and I would not trust them with one satoshi) - but at the very least they have delivered some Jalapenos, and allegedly even a single!
I'm not saying you should add a mini-rig to your list - but let's not forget that your list includes some manufacturers who have delivered NOTHING but promises so far. Makes no sense.
I don't include companies that are obvious scams. There are many promising companies out there that will produce eventually, and I want to have them on the list. To strike this balance I have to do a lot of research on what the company has said vs done, if their pictures and business model makes sense, a lot of things go into it. I put a link up yesterday that shows that Inaba has no intention of continuing the project. If I'm misreading that I'll change it back. Beside that there is a huge difference between not having proven yourself, and proving yourself untrustworthy.
People accept that Avalon will ship on time because they say they will. They have said this a lot, I would accept what they say if it made any sense. Again waiting for people who take me on for this to send a link.
As far as my objectivity goes, I am willing to listen to any argument, and have put over 100 hours into just the research to make the table work. I have tried to gauge the sentiment on the forum and balance that with the actual facts I can find. Consider this more of consumer protection than manufacturer advertisement.
There is a "Working Unit" column.
Calling it constant growth rather than average growth doesn't make the statistic come out any better. My label would have to be something monstrous like, "1 yr ROI with constant difficulty rise of" just doesn't fit. I'll have to make something that is more logical though.
I've considered making a huge explanation at some point, you should have seen what I started with here. This is beautiful compared to that mess. I've put a lot of work in, and will continue. Your tone suggests that it's just not good enough. I haven't gotten a single donation. I don't expect to, that's not how the forum works these days.
edit- I have been planning to do a lot of the things you mentioned. Your suggestions did help. I had been trying to keep the post short, for instance, and there is no reason for that.
