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361  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mad as a box of frogs on: December 07, 2013, 10:18:51 PM
There's nothing wrong with taking the other side of the bet ... :p

When the 20x head flipper shows up ... bet on tails. Psychology will take care of the rest.

And never bet everything, either way.

Unfortunately a coin doesn't have any feelings or memory or anything else besides 50% chance for either heads or tails.

Exactly, the fact that everyone is "betting heads" makes betting tails a "outsized" bet, even though the underlying probability says otherwise. Aka reverse gambler's fallacy. Probability is one thing, risk:reward is something different.

Part of "buy low, sell high" is looking like an idiot for more time than you can imagine.

That said, the analogy doesn't apply that well because markets are not purely stochastic, but processes with memory.
362  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mad as a box of frogs on: December 07, 2013, 07:49:50 PM
There's nothing wrong with taking the other side of the bet ... :p

When the 20x head flipper shows up ... bet on tails. Psychology will take care of the rest.

And never bet everything, either way.
363  Economy / Economics / Re: The end is near! My mum is thinking of buying Bitcoins. on: November 19, 2013, 05:11:20 PM
Food for thought:

Quote from: Fred Wilson
"A friend of mine has a great line. He says 'Nothing important has ever been built without irrational exuberance'. Meaning that you need some of this mania to cause investors to open up their pocketbooks and finance the building of the railroads or the automobile or aerospace industry or whatever. And in this case, much of the capital invested was lost, but also much of it was invested in a very high throughput backbone for the Internet, and lots of software that works, and databases and server structure. All that stuff has allowed what we have today, which has changed all our lives...that's what all this speculative mania built".[5]

Tulips are a billion dollar industry these days, BTW. Just not the same bulbs.
364  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Devcoin Cancer Treatment Fund on: May 27, 2013, 08:46:55 PM
Here we go:

Tramèr et al, Cannabinoids for control of chemotherapy induced nausea and vomiting: quantitative systematic review.  BMJ 2001; 323 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.323.7303.16 (Published 7 July 2001)
http://www.bmj.com/content/323/7303/16

Objective: To quantify the antiemetic efficacy and adverse effects of cannabis used for sickness induced by chemotherapy.

Design: Systematic review.

Data sources: Systematic search (Medline, Embase, Cochrane library, bibliographies), any language, to August 2000.

Studies: 30 randomised comparisons of cannabis with placebo or antiemetics from which dichotomous data on efficacy and harm were available (1366 patients). Oral nabilone, oral dronabinol (tetrahydrocannabinol), and intramuscular levonantradol were tested. No cannabis was smoked. Follow up lasted 24 hours.

Results: Cannabinoids were more effective antiemetics than prochlorperazine, metoclopramide, chlorpromazine, thiethylperazine, haloperidol, domperidone, or alizapride: relative risk 1.38 (95% confidence interval 1.18 to 1.62), number needed to treat 6 for complete control of nausea; 1.28 (1.08 to 1.51), NNT 8 for complete control of vomiting. Cannabinoids were not more effective in patients receiving very low or very high emetogenic chemotherapy. In crossover trials, patients preferred cannabinoids for future chemotherapy cycles: 2.39 (2.05 to 2.78), NNT 3. Some potentially beneficial side effects occurred more often with cannabinoids: “high” 10.6 (6.86 to 16.5), NNT 3; sedation or drowsiness 1.66 (1.46 to 1.89), NNT 5; euphoria 12.5 (3.00 to 52.1), NNT 7. Harmful side effects also occurred more often with cannabinoids: dizziness 2.97 (2.31 to 3.83), NNT 3; dysphoria or depression 8.06 (3.38 to 19.2), NNT 8; hallucinations 6.10 (2.41 to 15.4), NNT 17; paranoia 8.58 (6.38 to 11.5), NNT 20; and arterial hypotension 2.23 (1.75 to 2.83), NNT 7. Patients given cannabinoids were more likely to withdraw due to side effects 4.67 (3.07 to 7.09), NNT 11.

Conclusions: In selected patients, the cannabinoids tested in these trials may be useful as mood enhancing adjuvants for controlling chemotherapy related sickness. Potentially serious adverse effects, even when taken short term orally or intramuscularly, are likely to limit their widespread use.

---

Jatoi et al. Dronabinol Versus Megestrol Acetate Versus Combination Therapy for Cancer-Associated Anorexia: A North Central Cancer Treatment Group Study. JCO January 15, 2002 vol. 20 no. 2 567-573
http://jco.ascopubs.org/content/20/2/567

PURPOSE: To determine whether dronabinol administered alone or with megestrol acetate was more, less, or equal in efficacy to single-agent megestrol acetate for palliating cancer-associated anorexia.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: Four hundred sixty-nine assessable advanced cancer patients were randomized to (1) oral megestrol acetate 800 mg/d liquid suspension plus placebo, (2) oral dronabinol 2.5 mg twice a day plus placebo, or (3) both agents. Eligible patients acknowledged that loss of appetite or weight was a problem and reported the loss of 5 pounds or more during 2 months and/or a daily intake of less than 20 calories/kg of body weight.

RESULTS: Groups were comparable at baseline in age, sex, tumor type, weight loss, and performance status. A greater percentage of megestrol acetate-treated patients reported appetite improvement and weight gain compared with dronabinol-treated patients: 75% versus 49% (P = .0001) for appetite and 11% versus 3% (P = .02) for ≥ 10% baseline weight gain. Combination treatment resulted in no significant differences in appetite or weight compared with megestrol acetate alone. The Functional Assessment of Anorexia/Cachexia Therapy questionnaire, which emphasizes anorexia-related questions, demonstrated an improvement in quality of life (QOL) among megestrol acetate–treated and combination-treated patients. The single-item Uniscale, a global QOL instrument, found comparable scores. Toxicity was also comparable, with the exception of an increased incidence of impotence among men who received megestrol acetate.

CONCLUSION: In the doses and schedules we studied, megestrol acetate provided superior anorexia palliation among advanced cancer patients compared with dronabinol alone. Combination therapy did not appear to confer additional benefit. 

365  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Devcoin Cancer Treatment Fund on: May 27, 2013, 08:41:24 PM
Of relevance:

Quote
"The thing people forget is that killing cancer is easy. Radiation, drugs, heat, cold, thumping it with lasers or ultrasonics or a baseball bast, it's just another cell and those things can't put up much of a fight against SCIENCE. The problem isn't wiping out the tumours, it's the NOT killing everything they're attached to - healthy human cells which are unfortunately even more fragile. People have this vision of cancer as a multi-headed chimeric hydra, a diabolical monster rearing over a small doctor armed only with a scalpel. The reality is a lumberjack trying to kill one red ant among a thousand black ones he can't touch, and he's only got a sledgehammer, napalm and an ICBM missile to do it with."
~ Luke McKinney

Quote
"All things are poison, and nothing is without poison; only the dose permits something not to be poisonous."
~ Paracelsus

Molecular biologist by trade. Heard of the effects of cannabinoids, but as always double blinded RCT evidence is lacking. There had been a few studies looking at the effects against CINV (chemotherapy induced nausea/vomiting) though, have to look them up.
366  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Devcoin Across Cultures on: May 25, 2013, 07:04:41 PM
德義幣 (dé Ý b́)

德 - morality, ethics
義 - righteous, just, adopted
幣 - coin (a la Bitcoin)

Can't write chinese on here, but that's the closest I can get. Might want to ask the Chinese forums.

PS Ý could also be 億 (hundred million, c.a. 十億 for one billion), to emphasize the quantity. Chinese has a lot of homonyms that are fun to play with. There are 149 different homonyms for Ý actually (according to wikipedia) and I don't think I know even 1/10th of them.
367  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Vircurex Loop Hole!!! on: May 25, 2013, 06:04:35 PM
That's like markets 101. Bid ask spread is inversely proportional to trade volume. Usually.
368  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANN] USCoin - Here's the change! [USC] on: May 25, 2013, 04:16:29 AM
P2Pool is slow to ramp up though. Rewards are still increasing even as difficulty went up by 16x so far. Also I seem to be missing payments for several time intervals.
369  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANN][P2Pool] LuckyCoin/USCoin @ P2Pool.nl on: May 25, 2013, 04:13:11 AM
Difficulty 4x again, some massive hashpower jumped on (about 100MH/s worth)
370  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANN][P2Pool] LuckyCoin/USCoin @ P2Pool.nl on: May 25, 2013, 02:28:34 AM
Random difficulty is random.



lol
371  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: scrypt is "memory intensive" therefore no ASICs, but how? on: May 24, 2013, 12:26:09 AM
Browse the YaCoin development thread, especially after page 13. There's a whole lot of discussion on Scrypt's memory requeriments, since YaCoin uses a variable formula.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=206577.0

If anything, that coin is going to be the best real-life experiment to determine what exactly is the best N value for a possible future Litecoin2.
372  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Yacoin Price about to Jump on: May 12, 2013, 08:16:43 PM
Guys, it's over. You missed your opportunity to cash out. Move on. Go back to mining LTC.

Such a foolish mentality

Such a niave little boy...Both FTC and CNC are doing poorly, but this one will do better, because it can only be mined by CPU, which costs considerably more them GPU mining. Why would anyone want to make more profit, mining a real, already tested coin, like LTC. That's just silly Roll Eyes

Play the market. I could give a fuck about FTC and CNC. What's happening now is that YAC is still extremely new and I'm still profiting highly from BTER. Don't try to tell me what makes me money lol. I've made over 500% from my initial investment. Go home, "little boy." BTW, "niave" is spelled "naive"... how naive of you Roll Eyes

I think you meant to say, "I couldn't give a fuck".

Logically, no. It works both ways. If I could give a fuck, it implies that I don't give a fuck already.

Same thing with "I could care less" and "I couldn't care less." People use both expressions. If I could care less, it presumes that I care already, and if someone says I couldn't care less, it means that you are at a level of caring that cannot lower, regardless of its level.

Obligatory: http://itre.cis.upenn.edu/~myl/languagelog/archives/001209.html
373  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Yacoin Price about to Jump on: May 12, 2013, 06:09:54 PM
I think Yacoin might stay, You have Bitcoin being ASIC friendly, Litecoin being GPU friendly and then Yacoin being CPU friendly. When Netcoin is released maybe it will be FPGA friendly, and we will be full circle, lol. Who knows, right? Tongue

You mean mechanical punch-card friendly, of course.
374  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: GPU mining of YAC? on: May 12, 2013, 02:19:13 AM
I think the market for YAC is still too small to warrant someone developing a GPU version.

At 10 BTC / 1000 YAC I think the incentive will exist but not yet

Ironically, the incentive to develop a GPU miner will coincide with it not being worth developing, due to the increasing Nfactor and associated memory use. A quite elegant solution.
375  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Yacoin developer stole all my coins! :c on: May 11, 2013, 10:41:59 PM
More than one person seems to have multiple personality disorder on this forum. Don't worry, the condition is treatable.
376  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: ★★ ▀▄▀▄▀ YACoin Now LIVE on BTER ▀▄▀▄▀ ★★ on: May 11, 2013, 09:24:43 PM
so the price settler ed around .0012 for now

There's only 7 trades shown in the trade history so far, and they're all real small, so too early to tell.  Insufficient buy orders in the order book.

YAC takes a minute for 4 confirms. BTC takes 45 min for 4 confirms. Plus the coin isn't even visible on front page. Would be wary of any price (high or low) at least before then.
377  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [YAC] Illustrated, step-by-step guide to starting your own AWS YAC server farm! on: May 11, 2013, 08:01:06 PM
LOL Amazon is expensive! Getting 300kH out of my shitty VPS running 10 of 12 cores... and it only costs 15€ per month (which IS an amazing deal, i know). So for 100,000 kH i'd have to rent 300 of those for 4500€ per month.
1 day Amazon or one month noname?  Roll Eyes

What host, if you don't mind me asking? I'm so far satisfied with http://ramhost.us, which has some cheap plans but is nearly always sold out for new customers.
378  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: YACoin Windows 7 x64 miner [SSSE3 and AVX support] on: May 11, 2013, 07:57:27 PM
Can OP share the parameters and dependencies needed for successful compile on VS2010? In the wake of recent incidents, it would be prudent for users to try compiling themselves.
379  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Vircurex hacked! on: May 11, 2013, 07:51:02 PM
In the wake of recent security incidents, I should haven't to remind everyone to change their passwords on vircurex? Just in case.
380  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: ATTENTION THE GUYS THAT STARTED THE YACOIN FUD WANT TO BUY YACOINS NOW!!!! on: May 11, 2013, 07:42:26 PM
My block list will grow considerably in size today.
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