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3601  Economy / Speculation / Re: Sorry to inform you, the current rally is over now... or very soon. on: February 27, 2013, 01:57:38 PM
why has nobody mentioned the recent forbes articles on bitcoin? Seems to me they along with reddit and wordpress have stirred the interest.

Are you ready for my predictions -  **Pulls out Crystal ball whilst cheap disco fog rolls in..**

The current rally will level off to a more natural upwards incline as those that were interested by the recent press get bored and confused about how to buy and keep / spend bitcoin, the hardcore geeky few or the ones wealthy enough to pay some trader to invest in it for them will continue to buy and trade bitcoin,

The problem with bitcoin is its small market capitalisation, its small user-base, and lack of suppliers selling real world items & consumables in exchange for bitcoin.

When more brokerages and big exchanges manifest, along with personal, portable hardware wallets and payment systems bitcoin will take off like a rocket- as the ipod type people see these hardware devices amongst there friends, big time traders and drug dealers see the opportunity to cash in and out with the exchanges.




Mantonis has done like 10+ Forbes articles on bitcoin.  No new eyes there.
3602  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 27, 2013, 04:45:16 AM
Looks like 25k bitcoins now have to be bought back at a loss.

Time for the rebound. Hope some bears learned a lesson.

And thanks for the cheap coins.


I disagree.  We'll get one more good downdraft this time after the brief bounce, then I'll make my bimonthly dollar cost average purchase.  Good timing bears Smiley.

skip a month...

I will at least replenish what I sold for cash yesterday for $29.75.

As usual, I'm glad I ignored adam.
3603  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Is anyone else experiencing very slow blockchain movement right now? on: February 27, 2013, 03:09:34 AM
Check here:
http://bitcoincharts.com/bitcoin/txlist/

BTW, if you are going to get upset about a simple explanation you might want to ask somewhere else besides the newbie jail.  When responding here many people assume you have no idea how the basics work.
3604  Economy / Speculation / Re: This survey proves that buying drugs represent a small market for bitcoin on: February 27, 2013, 03:03:59 AM
Quote
39% of users do not drink, smoke, gamble, or take drugs.

that's the bit your talking about?

doesn't that mean that 61% of users drink, smoke, gamble, and take drugs?   Grin


Quote
Only 9% of respondents have bought narcotics (using Bitcoin that is)

oh i see

No it means 61% of users drink, smoke, gamble or take drugs.
3605  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin rate using different sites on: February 26, 2013, 11:23:56 PM
Prices will stabilize across markets. If prices get comparatively cheaper on one market more purchases will occur leading to higher demands, more scarcity and more value. If prices were to get comparatively high more selling would occur on that market, more supply, less scarcity and less value.

I was interested in this phenomenon myself. In financial markets there exists something called an arbitrageur. An arbitrageur takes advantage of price differentials in different markets. An example would be someone purchasing a boat in one country to only sail the boat to another market and sell it at a higher rate. Since the individual would be taking advantage of price differentials by profiting they would be an arbitrageur.

I wondered if anyone could act as a Bitcoin arbitrageur by taking advantages of momentary price differentials in Bitcoin exchange markets. This would be difficult because markets tend to balance out with the macro Bitcoin market quickly. It is possible to make some money put because of the balancing factor it wouldn't be much. The highest likelihood would be an arbitrageur that sells exclusively to individuals (two people can make a market). Arbitrageurs help to balance price differences in markets by working with principles of supply and demand.

Unless you can program and have plenty of capital to keep on all the exchanges, you should leave bitcoin arbitrage to those that do.
3606  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin rate using different sites on: February 26, 2013, 06:30:06 PM
So I know about MtGox and how it works and all that, but i'm using VirWoX instead of MtGox to buy my bitcoins and whatnot. Now my question is if VirWoX still affects the economy by exchanging the currencies on that, or other sites?

Yes. If the price gets far enough away from the other markets to cover the fees involved, someone will equalize the pricing and take their cut. Of course, this means other people are losing money compared to trading on those other sites, but sometimes it is worth it.
3607  Economy / Speculation / Re: Afraid to miss the market crash? on: February 26, 2013, 06:24:55 PM
It's funny watching all the Bitcoin fans trying to reassure themselves that the suddenly increased growth rate of the past month somehow indicates a rapidly rising equilibrium point. Much more probably the value will crash or fizzle back to something below $20 before the beginning of Q3 this year. There's no way what's happening now is sustainable. Just check the evolution of the number of companies accepting Bitcoin and you'll see - nothing special happened in January, this is just another hot air balloon, albeit inflating more slowly than the one in 2011.

You may have a point if you can assume that the price was fair before January.  I would disagree with that assumption.
3608  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoin all time high on: February 26, 2013, 06:09:13 PM
In my opinion, saying its gonna be a bitcoin all time high based upon the value compared to USD only, is pretty narrow minded. We should compare it to a bag of currency.

That might be true for other commodities, where there are physical barriers to distribution.  With bitcoin it doesn't make much difference since it is so easily transferred worldwide.  Sometimes other markets do get out of sync with USD price, but it isn't long before someone makes some arbitrage money and gets everything lined up again.
3609  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will the companies accepting bitcoin continue to pour in? on: February 26, 2013, 06:04:43 PM

If the value of Bitcoin goes up fewer will be spend. The Dollar value of the spend coins per month might increase but the number of Bitcoins circulated in commerce will go down!

On the other hand, a drop or levelling in price will increase spending.

But the dollar value is an excellent proxy for the amount of goods and services purchased. That is what matters, not the number of actual BTC.

Short term, sure. Anything longer than a year or so and dollar value is a horrible yardstick.
3610  Economy / Speculation / Re: Afraid to miss the market crash? on: February 25, 2013, 02:18:18 PM
Yeah seems to be. I keep waiting for the crash. The drop over the weekend was big, I figured it would trigger panic selling, but it didn't.

I figure most people are waiting for the peak to sell out.

I just can't see any good reason for it to keep rising, $30 is way overpriced relative to the difficulty & reward increase

You're making the assumption it was properly priced before the "difficulty & reward increase".  Also, the reward decreased, and difficulty follows price, not the other way around.
3611  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Please upgrade to Bitcoin 0.8 and help Android/MultiBit users! on: February 25, 2013, 07:19:06 AM
Ubuntu is great! Just update/upgrade my system and Bitcoin 0.8 is up and running!

Arch linux is great.  I had bitcoin 0.8 five days ago Tongue.
3612  Economy / Speculation / Re: [poll] Quick! Put more chewing gum in Bitcoin's Velocity lever!... on: February 24, 2013, 08:28:21 PM
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=88208.0

Problem solved, no need to modify bitcoin proper.
3613  Economy / Speculation / Re: What will happen when we get above 31.91 $, June 2011 high ? on: February 24, 2013, 08:20:42 PM
I know the assassination market comment up there near the top was in some if not most ways a joke, but I just had a rather chilling thought about the boom the assassination market worldwide stands to have as the market cap of bitcoin rises. *shudder*

If you give a stranger an irreversible, pseudoanonymous payment method to kill someone, you are being scammed.  People who actually do shit like that don't deal with strangers.
3614  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The block limit will be raised. There are just no ifs or buts... on: February 24, 2013, 01:37:28 AM
why is this such a big deal?

blocks are still going to be mined at the same rate right?

even if the block limit is not increased the number of tx on the network will still be the same, so bandwidth required to run a full node will be pretty much the same...

no?

wouldn't miners like to mine a bigger block ( more tx pre block = more fees! )

wouldn't an end user like to have his tx included in the next block ( more tx pre block = for sure your tx will be in the next block )

I could get on board with something tied to the number of transactions paying at least the minimum fee.

If the amount of fee paying transactions rises, the block size is increased on the next adjustment.  If the fee paying transactions drop, block size is reduced on the next adjustment.

Basically, we need a way to keep the segment allotted to free transactions to stay roughly the same size, but allow the size to grow and shrink with the paying transaction rate.  Free transactions could still take up extra space if there weren't paying transactions, but they wouldn't reserve the space past the adjustment.
3615  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Starting a Bitcoin Bank. on: February 24, 2013, 01:19:14 AM
Recommendations?

Hey everyone this is my proposal to start a bitcoin bank, It will feature:

Image/File Verification
A Super Secure Server
Nobody can get it
Logged Ip's
Only you can get in

And if there's anything else you think I should add please post it, and please contribute to the project my Bitcoin Address is below.

Banks are obsolete.  You want to build a wallet.  If you are able to access the users' private keys, you are doing it wrong.

Read up on the history of EWallets.  Start here: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/EWallet

Basically, you want to build a hybrid wallet that handles keys in javascript and ensures the server only ever sees keys in encrypted form.  Ideally, you would also require a plugin that verifies a signature for your javascipt sources so that if your server is hacked and the javascipt is modified your users will know something is up and not type in their password.  Of course, this also requires the key for signing the code not be stored on the webserver.  blockchain.info/wallet is currently one of the best implementations I've seen, although I only use it when I need to carry some bitcoins with me
3616  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Starting a Bitcoin Bank. on: February 24, 2013, 01:07:16 AM
Hey everyone this is my proposal to start a bitcoin bank, It will feature:

Image/File Verification
A Super Secure Server
Nobody can get it
Logged Ip's
Only you can get in

And if there's anything else you think I should add please post it, and please contribute to the project my Bitcoin Address is below.

Banks are obsolete.  You want to build a wallet.  If you are able to access the users' private keys, you are doing it wrong.
3617  Economy / Economics / Re: When miners hoard more, 'demand'... on: February 23, 2013, 09:25:20 PM
What does mining have to do with saving?  It is just a slightly cheaper way of acquiring the coins if you have the skills to set it up.  Soon though custom hardware will make it dead simple and production cost will stabilize fairly close to the market price.  The cheapest electricity will control mining (or whoever can use it most efficiently, such as by using the heat productively), but margins will be fairly narrow.  I expect winter will bring mining power to a given hemisphere since the heat is an asset not a burden.
3618  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 23, 2013, 07:43:08 AM
Will lol if a dump session rolls in to another super resistive instabounce.

No... go down.  I wanna buy some more.
3619  Economy / Speculation / Re: New term: Ninja resistance on: February 23, 2013, 07:32:29 AM
I pulled some random numbers out of my ass and drafted up a theory yesterday: when we broke $20, the market was in a state of indecision, it rammed directly into the $21 territory, all the way up to the $21.43, and then crashed back to $18 before rebounced. So if past could tell anything about the future, when we broke $30, the market will repeat the same pattern. Turns out that a prediction coming from reading tea leaves is not always too far off. Wink

Now the serious part: Bears would want to seize the opportunity of $32 as much as bulls, if they manage to halt bulls' advance at exactly this point, things would not work out well in bulls' favor, the hype which is supposed to be generated by "Bitcoin breaking all-time high" will turn into doom and gloom with "Bitcoin failed at $32 and crashed again", at least that's what bears have in mind I believe.

Yep.
3620  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Fastest Way To Buy Bitcoins? on: February 23, 2013, 07:25:49 AM
localbitcoins.com
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