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3721  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 02, 2014, 02:18:41 PM

good stuff

you should make a new thread.

Thanks - good point.
3722  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / I need some good Bitcoin resources- to help explain Crypto to an investor HELP! on: July 02, 2014, 02:17:41 PM
I am compiling a list of resources
3723  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 02, 2014, 02:11:15 PM
I am compiling a list of resources for a person that is totally not up to date and does not get Bitcoin/Crypto currency

The person has a finance background, and a legal background- the person is not technically minded

I have list of resources , videos, text, articles and good places to get key data.

has anyone any works they suggest may be suitable for this gentleman to read ?  (I get the feeling he is more of a reader than a video watcher, plus I have some good videos already- though if you have any amazing links please do share)

I am almost ready to send what I have, but just thought I would ask here if anyone has any good primers to add to my list or rather than me writing it all out again.

The gentleman is a man with very deep pockets and a group of investors, I have meetings planned with the person in question to discuss starting
a Crypto/Bitcoin relegated company here in the UK -

I am looking for good text primers for a person new to crypto but that has a good finance background,  not too basic, not too full on   have you any suggestions that I can add to my ever growing list ?  I do not want to send him everything, I am looking to cherry pick.

Already had one meeting with the chap in question, and before the next one I would like him to do some reading, so he knows more about where
his money is going to be going, before the next rounds of meetings- as the guy is pretty much a crypto newbie.

Thank you in advance.
3724  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 02, 2014, 12:17:07 PM
Total jibberish

You are talking shyte.
3725  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2014, 11:52:35 PM
What the fuck is going on with LTC on btc-e?

wtf...?
3726  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2014, 11:05:16 PM
The winning bid was $706 - mark my words. And I won't tell you how I know. Smiley

.....................................
3727  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2014, 10:50:15 PM
One buyer is very bullish.  It means the sale price was likely higher than most anticipated.
It means only that one buyer with deep pockets was less greedy than all the others.  They may all have bid at 475$, and he bid 480$  Grin

EDIT: typo, 460 --> 480

yeah right that is what happened..

oh and yeah other financial crisis are also comparable to the situation the worlds economies are in now

not.

i think he still doesn't get it.. if you want to buy 30k bitcoins, from an exchange, then it would cost you a lot more than $600 (spot price around that time) to get it.

I enjoy most of the Jorge posts, but sometimes I really think he is just teasing/winding everyone up on purpose.... because for a man with brains... he has some strange ideas. 



3728  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2014, 10:32:37 PM
One buyer is very bullish.  It means the sale price was likely higher than most anticipated.
It means only that one buyer with deep pockets was less greedy than all the others.  They may all have bid at 475$, and he bid 480$  Grin

EDIT: typo, 460 --> 480

yeah right that is what happened..

oh and yeah other financial crisis are also comparable to the situation the worlds economies are in now

not.
3729  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2014, 07:59:25 PM
There is no doubt in my mind that the US and USD will fall.


It's just the timing that is hard to nail down.  

Is it really?  What is the longest lived fiat currency in history?  USD, since 1971.  Others more clever than I have made the argument that with a sample size of 1 the most likely future span of an event with duration is the historical duration.  From this we take the least-assumption prior estimate that the central tendency for future lifetime of the USD is 43 years.  Then we observe the likelihood of a terminal event for USD by examining the likelihood of terminal events for comparables, and adjust distribution accordingly.  The likelihood of terminal events for comparables are conditioned on several factors, such as debt/GDP ratio, approval ratings of the central government, employment and real inflation trends, &c.

My best effort result has the terminal point of USD between 2017 and 2025 with 95% probability.  The conclusion is sensitive to the choice of conditioning factors and comparables, however.



(some would argue)

Founded in 1694, the British pound Sterling is the oldest fiat currency... At a ripe old age of 317 years it must be considered a highly successful fiat currency. However, success is relative. The British pound was defined as 12 ounces of silver, so it's worth less than 1/200 or 0.5% of its original value. In other words, the most successful long standing currency in existence has lost 99.5% of its value. (Fiat money=intrinsic value of zero)

(not I though- I know what you mean... but just thought I would throw it in there)
3730  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2014, 07:32:52 PM
20 years from now there will be no USD or USA.

Lol.  Thankfully this is virtually impossible.  But if you were right, I suppose you have no idea the sorts of war and chaos you are predicting.

USD could be greatly diminished, but sensible folks should hope this is a gentle transition.  As to the US being gone.  Woof.  That's just reckless and blind.
What did anything you said have to do with whether or not my statement is true or false?

Are one of those superstitious people who believes that if we don't talk about bad things they won't happen?

The USA is following the same historical trajectory as the USSR. Absent some rational explanation of why the same actions that have lead to a failed state in every other historical example will not have the same result here, I conclude that the USA will share the same fate.

I'd call your "I don't like that conclusion therefore it's not true" rebuttal childish, however that's insulting to children.

In what way is the US following the same trajectory as the USSR?  Of course the US will be gone someday, 20 years seems a little short.  Just because it's clear we're heading toward a crisis doesn't mean the government will fall.  What would it be replaced with?  Technology might replace some government function in the next 20 years, but probably not all of it. For example I don't foresee technology providing healthcare for the poor.  The free market prefers to just hide the poor from sight, rather than help them.

With the current information and the current path we are on........ Financially speaking, China Russia and Iran and the BRIC nations/others could stop accepting the devaluded USD (as they are already making moves to do so) and the USD could be usurped by a basket of other currencies and lose its place as the reserve/petrodollar.  If the United states continues printing 85 Billion a month the USD will continue to further devalue, if it stops being used as the reserve then it will speed up its collapse. Whilst continuing to increase the debt levels on an exponential scale, without addressing the debt, as they are doing, where/how do you think this will end? There is only one inevitable conclusion, and that is a major crisis, at some point somethign has got to give. The USD "dying" and the USA disintegrating into the Un-united states of America is actually the least worrying scenario....in almost all of the other scenarios that this is somehow avoided, most look ugly to me.  Also during the next 20 years it is not just the US that will be falling, the east will be rising which will further compound the problems in the west. Perhaphs you are right in that the USA may still stand, and the USD will still be there, in 20 years time, maybe, but they will not be or mean the same thing, there is a shift coming, it is not just in terms of digital money that things are changing.  On a side note, regarding healthcare for the poor, that is another thing that will look vastly different in 20 years time- (both the healthcare, and the poor)  Technology is growing at an exponential rate, and also there is ever increasing synthesis joining different tech together, and one of the first places we will see this most evident will be healthcare, also as the tec gets faster, smaller, more intelligent, it is also becoming cheaper and reaching the market quicker and quicker, and this is only going to increase as the synthesis and merging of different fields continues. I think that the world is going to change more in the next 20 years than it has in the past 100, and the world has changed a fair bit in the past 100 years. This process, is actually one of the few positive scenarios that could save the collapse of the US and the dollar, but even then , I believe that it will actually mean that the dollar and perhaps country , will be a entire different beast altogether. Paradigm shifts are on their way, before the shifts happen it is difficult to say with accuracy how they will effect the world, which is why I started "With the current information and the current path we are on...." So maybe it is a race.... one thing is for sure.. the financial side, as things stand, either needs to collapse, have a war, or a paradigm shift in the very structure of finance/the economy  .... BTC anyone?









3731  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2014, 06:47:30 PM
so do you guys think this recent bump was from the newegg guys who have insider info, or does it have to do with the marshal auction? i personally think it has more to do with newegg.

I agree. Newegg > Overstock and Tiger Direct put together.

We're primed to go up. If a government somewhere is about to screw up badly, (and there's probably one), it'll get crazy.

I think there is more than one, and also they have already screwed up, we are just waiting for the shit storm. (USA included)

Not to mention a global food price-inflation crisis.

Happy times  Shocked

Times are A changin'

More than one government has already past the point of no return debtwise, it is no longer a question of  IF governments will default on their debts – it is a question of when.

Insolvent is still insolvent, even if you dress it up and prolong the pain.

3732  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2014, 01:48:51 PM

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/06/30/after-bitcoin-auction-winning-bidders-remain-elusive/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=1
Mr. Waters of CoinApex, who bid as an individual, appeared to send his bid using his cellphone while live on Bloomberg Television on Friday, but later confessed in an interview that he had forgotten to attach the bidding form to his email. He submitted his bid for one block of Bitcoins, at a price of $403 each, later on Friday afternoon. He, too, did not win



How to waste your time with a STUPID ass bid.
3733  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2014, 09:38:35 PM
3734  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2014, 04:37:47 PM
The changes to the deposit methods were announced on their homepages, as they happened over the past four months.  I posted at least a dozen links to the notices in Chinese with Google Translations, others posted human translations, as well as Chinese media articles.  Obviously they could not explain 4 months ago the changes that they were forced to make 2 months ago.  
I'm not talking about announcing changes to the deposit methods.  I'm talking about the fact that the Chinese exchange operators could have gotten together 4-5 months ago, had a meeting, and then published an official joint statement saying something to the effect of, "China has not banned bitcoin, and will never ban bitcoin.  Whatever you read, whatever you hear, it is not banned and will never be banned.  Do not believe any supposed China news FUD that you read that claims otherwise.  Also do not believe any Chinese FUD related to our eventual exchanges demise.  Our Chinese exchanges are not only legal, but we will never shut down.  We will continue to work around the deposit issues with the PBOC.  Do not believe the FUD!  Also, OKCoin's volume is skewed based on 0% fees and HFT only, but it's not fake per se.  But yes, it is a little misleading for sure."  They could have offically published this in English for the Westerners, and on official sites like Coindesk.

But they didn't do that, now did they?  No official joint statement at all to help reassure the public and quell fears.  Hell, the individual Chinese exchange operators barely even spoke (except for Bobby Lee) during that time.  Their PR was just as bad, if not worse, than Mark Karpeles.  It was as if they WANTED the continued ambiguity to fuel the ongoing FUD panic selling.  And that's exactly what it did.


That's not how it works in China, unless you want to make sure your business is shut down faster than you can say Socialism with Chinese Characteristics.
Then you want to explain me why shit like this is coming out now?
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/29gwk8/we_are_okcoin_auaask_us_anything/

The Chinese whisper finally made its way to the right ears?
The appropriate palms have now been greased?(Politburo)
The appropriate people have now been schmoozed?
The time is now right and it was not before?
Things change

3735  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2014, 04:22:42 PM


If you like to laugh about percentages see my sig

Good one  Cheesy
3736  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2014, 03:59:41 PM
have to cash out a few btc. better now or in the morning? whats the odds its hits 650-660 tonight?

74.9998%

thats a very exact percentage? :L how did you come up with that?

Well, I took a piece of paper and rammed it real hard up my ass. Just as you asked, I noticed a tickle around my butt. Sure thing, the answer was out. However, that was for $635. $650 is only 12.4106%.

Fuck, this made me laugh.

Now THAT is what I call Technical ANALysis
3737  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2014, 02:24:40 PM
Not sure if anybody has already posted this... in case anyone wants to play -  

http://worldbitcoinnetwork.com/BitcoinPriceModel-Alpha.html

edit:  for what it is worth
3738  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 28, 2014, 03:28:20 PM
they wish that the world would be as static as their own intellectual development.

Hey, you're the one that wants a mechanism to keep the price stable (an idea that attempts to buck the market and is used in the real world to transfer wealth to the wealthy and powerful no less)

Yeah his doublespeak is quite interesting. According to mervyn if you support Bitcoin you support a static world without progress and intellectual development. It's not like Bitcoin is disruptive or anything...

“There was truth and there was untruth, and if you clung to the truth even against the whole world, you were not mad.”


“Orthodoxy means not thinking–not needing to think. Orthodoxy is unconsciousness.”

― George Orwell, 1984
3739  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 28, 2014, 03:21:11 PM
Just going to pop this here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-26/nirp-strikes-spain-create-tax-bank-deposits
3740  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 28, 2014, 03:07:36 PM
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