Nope, that would just make me a scammer too ... just like taking candy from babies. Though the odds are going to be so long that its not even worth the effort But have fun guys. 

I posted this in another thread, but its probably worth repeating here (spreading the word). I chose 20% because it makes the math easier, and its as good a guess as any. As for "the rest of eternity", take a look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno's_paradoxes

Do the math. If difficulty is increasing at 20% per two weeks, after just 8 weeks it will have doubled (1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2 ~ 2.1) So your return halves every eight weeks. In the rest of eternity you will only mine the same amount as you mine in the first eight weeks. It never pays for itself. But plug in your own prediction for the difficulty spiral and see if you like the ROI.

Congrats! I've only got another 460 posts to go before I join you. If I make it that far (should take me, ohh, about two weeks at my current rate of posting), I'll dedicate my play wallet to the cause (see sig, and post#1 for the gory details).  

PS cool, its my 40th post, and the 40th post in the thread. Must be my lucky day! 

So by the time you receive it, you'll have lost perhaps half of your expected ROI. Do the math guys.

If you want to see real scamming, E-Cat takes the cream. I'm not saying there isn't some sort of anomalous effect going on, but LENR is just pure sci-fi (excepting muon-catalysed fusion, and you can't boil a kettle with that).

And we have a winner !!

But seriously folks, choosing a raw 32 byte private key is not the safest way to secure your funds, though it might be fun to write a script to scan some of the more obvious ones (eg DEADBEEF... has also been used in the past). Not an original idea I guess, so don't expect to find a pot of free bitgold waiting for you.

And YAY!, my public-private wallet finally has some funds, someone sent me some dust!!
http://blockexplorer.com/address/12M4QznuNZH2BRVbLK8SKvNqGTPJpCpST7

EDIT And somebody decided to play my little game !!

Its more of a sigmoid, but to Moore's credit it looks like an exponential when its most noticable.

Moore's law is over, just a couple more doubling's and its done. But progress continues. Other "laws" come in to play, though eventually it must come to a steady state.

But bitcoin is psycology, not physics, and that's a far bigger game.

I'm getting all polemic. shows its well past my bedtime.

Yes newbies are fun (I was one myself, but 14 hours ago, where will I will be in just a few days from now?), but Dragonborn Cymru, not Skyrim (though I do play, but not so keen on the thief class, brought up with all the wrong (traditional) values, how times change).

I've commented on BFL just recently. Hope that's an early order you have.

And I really ought to be in bed (this time last night I was Brand New, and its showing).

For some values of interesting. But you're up late (me too, supposed to be in bed but this is far too much fun). Dragonborn myself but Alan's my hero too.

Its pretty much the same deal. ROI on ASIC (bought with USD) will only profit if BTC appreciates sharply. There is certainly no return on ASIC bought with BTC. So either way you gamble on BTC futures.

But IMHO mining is sexier, so you'll want to buck the herd mentality and go for BTC purchase directly.

But what do I know, I'm just a newbie (or I was just 12 hours ago, at this rate I'll be a Full Member by Wednesday and a Hero by the end of the month). So do you trust me, (punk) ... Clint Eastwood for all you youngsters.

Anyway, bedtime. CUL8R!

The suppliers to to sellers are the silicon foundries, and given their long lead times (and debugging the chips, as BFL found to their cost), this is the bottleneck. Avalon/ASICMINER/BFL have to order chips months in advance so no wonder there is just a trickle of supply so far (and this also explains the need for pre-orders, you need the money in advance to pay for the masks and the foundries' production). But the pipeline is loaded and deliveries will ramp up as soon as the chips start to flow out. And the bare chip supply operates on a completely different model (cutting out the middle man), hence the predictions for difficulty of 100M or more by year's end.

Interesting times.

BFL are not in the driving seat here. Yes they are pulling in the orders (the fruit of aggressive marketing), but they just have not delivered. And look at their most recent ploy of selling their chips directly (at a tiny discount to Avalon's chips).

No, ASICMINER (and to a lesser extent Avalon) are the ones in charge here, and they do have that dilemma of flooding the market. But they are all slaves to the silicon foundries lead times (typically around 3 months, as evidenced by the chip order timescale). Plus the need to buy expensive mask sets (they limit the rate of production, and they do wear out, though that is probably not of any great concern here).

Do the math on the ROI. Cost 2BTC, 300MH/s currently earns 0.01BTC/day, 200 days payback. BUT difficulty is increasing at 20% per two weeks. So your return halves every six weeks (42 days). So in the rest of eternity you will only mine the same amount as you mine in the first six weeks. It never pays for itself. (Figures approximated, do your own math with your own projection of difficulty).

Of course a positive ROI is not the only reason for mining, but I'll leave that for another post (silk road anyone?)

Its just a case of supply and demand. The ASIC suppliers are in a monopoly position, and while there is no Intellectual Property barrier to admisssion (unlike many other markets), there is an upfront cost and leadtime that seems to have deterred new entrants (but not scammers). In other words its not currently working as an "Efficient Market".

To give them their due, ASICMINER and Avalon seem to be behaving quite ethically in not abusing the bitcoin hash chain (the 51% problem), but they do seem to be out to maximise their profit, and are pricing their products to match. As for BFL, to put it kindly they have overpromised and underdelivered.

The market will clear eventually, but as I see it there is no point buying equipment for mining at this point as the return on investment simply is not there. As for why there is such enthusiasm for ASIC's (you only have to trawl through the mining / custom hardware threads), perhaps because its the next big thing (and it will dominate mining, sooner or just a little later). But the profit is going to the equipment suppliers, not the miners (as always, Klondike anyone?)

With hindsight, being an early adopter has paid off handsomely with ASICs, and who knows. perhaps some of the luck will trickle down to the following herd. Or perhaps not. Personally I have no skin in this game.

And another recommend from me for his blog. The later posts get a bit tired but the early stuff is superb.

Particularly good are ...

http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/10/the-energy-trap/
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/10/why-not-space/
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/09/got-storage-how-hard-can-it-be/

Don't be put off by the "Peak Oil" meme, this is rational stuff not doom-mongering.

This has been discussed at huge length on the custom hardware subforum at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170332.0
Serve out your newbie time and come and join the party over there.

Spend your money somewhere else. That board will only mine at around 5MHash/sec and earn you pennies per day. Your electricity cost for the host computer will far exceed that (and no, a raspberry pi won't drive it, not without a lot of hacking to put together a custom USB driver).

BUT, if you really want to give it a try, take a look at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=9047.0

So would walking down the street all bling'd up to the hilt. Keep your stash in a safe place (such as a paper wallet), but be sure you understand how it works or you might just lose everything. Practice on some small sums before committing your life savings.

But my private key is public   (long story, well almost a whole day by now, its in my first post).
Good thing there's no coin there (yet, I keep looking just in case somebody wants to play)