When a country like El Salvador (or even an institution or an individual) decides to invest into bitcoin for the longer term, the goal does not tend to be selling (or at least it should not be) - even though a lot of additional comfort can come to any investment when it is "in profits" rather than either flat or negative.

So if anyone actually understands investment dynamics, there may well not tend to be a lot of moving around and/or trading in and out of investments that are intended to be longer term - even if some of the longer term may well have higher levels of volatility like bitcoin has had historically and it is expected that bitcoin's high level of volatility will continue in the years to come.  I like to say that one of the most inevitable dynamics in bitcoin is it's likely ongoing volatility.

There are a variety of ways that long term investors can attempt to mitigate likely inevitable volatility, and one of the ways would be to get in early and keep buying and hopefully the volatility to the upside will end up causing the volatility to the downside to be less painful - or at least not force any kind of bitcoin sales when the BTC price is dropping or has dropped significantly... at the same time, if the bitcoin price is down for a long time, even long time holders/investors might feel that they are not able to sell their bitcoins... so hopefully, governments, institutions and people who are in these kinds of situations will have sufficiently and adequately established other cashflow and funding sources so that they either do not need to sell bitcoin when it is seeming to be relatively down in price and/or that they are able to continue to add to their BTC stash when the BTC prices seem to be relatively down.  Buy on the dip and DCA ideas in terms of managing one's bitcoin holdings.

I am o.k. to leave the other portions of your post for now too.. .. but in regards to your last point, how about you zoom out a wee bit MOAR better to a representative period in your attempted comparison rather than a seemingly self-selected spin period? 

There are a lot of ways to assess bitcoin versus other possible investments/assets.. and I would think that the longer (and more information) will give you better and more accurate pictures/ideas than merely looking at a selected period, such as your chosen past 3 months.

Bitcoin was a baby 13 years ago in 2009, yet I get the sense that it would not be fair to use that.. .. yet even if we go from the late 2013 top (not necessarily conceding such a technique as representative), what do you see with a longer period of around 9 years?  let's say that the starting price point for bitcoin s $1k per bitcoin, then hey.. that should be easier to attempt to assess what is going on, no?   

What are the comparisons that you would like to make with bitcoin? if you start from $1k per bitcoin in late 2013 and compare other assets and/or currencies?  Would you want to compare equities like the stock market? and/or currencies? and/or property and/or commodities, such as gold?  Would those kinds of comparisons be representative of anything? or potentially help to inform you what is going on?    Hopefully you are not wanting to distract yourself and compare shitcoins, but surely there are a lot of folks who want to include shitcoins and other "crypto" projects into the mix - and thinking that those kinds of information points are relevant, and they are not completely irrelevant I would concede, but I still doubt that the vast majority of the meaning is in bitcoin.. and bitcoin is the proper comparison asset (just like Saylor seems to emphasize too.. what a coincidence?  I share frameworks with Saylor (at least for now) and many of the other bitcoin maxis... do you consider yourself a bitcoin maxi, or are you still trying to find yourself with your supposed smarter than everyone else skepticism?  Don't get me wrong.  I don't dislike you.. I am just attempting to argue substantive points.. including one of your main theses in which you believe Saylor going too far on the degenerate gambler side of the spectrum.. to the extent that you have even clarified your vague enough to seemingly wanna-be right positions.

Do you consider that when we may likely have the most significant wealth transfer in history going on, there might be some confusing information that is in the space and even in the mainstream media?  Direct battles against bitcoin but also informational battles against bitcoin. 

Where are you at?   

Do you even understand bitcoin sufficiently well enough in order to understand what bitcoin is and what it offers and/or maybe even how you might allocate your value (time, psychology, financial) into it (if you so choose) as compared with allocating of your value into other assets?

It's your choice regarding both how you allocate for yourself and also how you talk about these kinds of bitcoin-related matters with others (whether in real life or in forums like this)... and I am not trying to misrepresent anything that you might have said, even if some of the times I might have wanted to emphasize in order to make counter-points to the points (if anything potentially interesting) that you may have been making or attempting to make.


FTFY...

In regards to your last question, the figure came out of someone's ass... (which largely means that we should not be treating some of the bullshit very seriously.. merely because someone who seems to be somewhat smart might have said it)... and that someone likely spent less than 100 hours studying bitcoin... but of course, there are a lot of folks with less than 100 hours studying bitcoin who proclaim to be experts.. or at least able to spread purportedly "informed" bitcoin-related newses.

There's gotta be some other reasonably plausible scenarios in there, too..  No?.. but hey I am not going to draw them out... .. and sure, maybe part of Bitboy's point would be to set forth a kind of framework to point out what he considers the most likely scenarios that are being presented at the time that he is mapping them out.  

Generally speaking.. no problem with that.


Holy fuck.. I already had explained this point, which largely boils down to assessing the extent to which a system would be completely thrown out when it seems to be sufficiently and adequately addressing issues that it had intended to address regarding account farming, scams, spams, shills etc...

Yeah it does not perform any kind of perfect job, but you are largely just proclaiming that the solution is to scrap it with a kind of implied solution that would be go back to pre-merit-system status.  There might be other reasons that it is dumb too.. but I had already described the essence of the matter, and yeah, maybe you disagree with the facts.. so then you better fucking convince theymos about the supposed problem that you perceive.


I doubt that theymos even close to perceives it the way that you supposedly do.  Furthermore, you seem to have little to no appreciation regarding the value of goodwill that is created on a forum and the sometimes balancing that is attempted when change goes into effect.  Sure maybe if theymos  was more rash (as you seem to want him to be), then he would scare away longer term members by treating them like shit... and just say that we are all starting over.  Maybe theymos should sell the forum to Elon in order that the rug could just be pulled.. who gives any shits about the "feelings"  or any of the work that was put into the forum by long-term members.. fuck them...,everyone can just start over, right?  Let's all start from zero.  Is that what you want, you diptwat?


Ok.  We don't need to continue to the back and forth then, you dweeb.


I don't deny that there are issues related to those areas... but they are likely not even close to as BIG as you are making them out to be... and there is still largely a perception from those who matter in these here parts, that the benefits of the whole system outweigh the costs... and overall the forum is a better place by the current system as is, in contrast to just removing the merit system.. Don't you realize those same complaints were already made in the beginning of the merit system in during quite a bit of 2018?  Yes, we are coming upon almost 5 years (anniversary) of the merit system.


Maybe some tweaks to the system is being considered?  Maybe rotating merit sources?  I don't know.  I don't really care that much about your seemingly passion issue.


We can agree that you don't know shit.


Go on.  Deny it.  You fuck.


I mentioned it, and I am part of the conversation in which I am part of. There you have it.. definitional truth.  


Awe.  What a cutie!!!


I don't think so.  We are in a specific location, which is a mostly bitcoin-oriented thread on a public forum.  Get a grip.


Nope.


To the extent that your opinion even matters.  

The "pattern" has already broken.

In other words, there is no pattern.    

Who would'a thunk?

There's no pattern.. even though there are outcomes that are more probable than others, including price pressures that are still motivated in a kind of pattern that is not a pattern because no specifics are guaranteed.


Yes.. you mentioned that before.  


Oh gawd.. we have to wait that long?

fuck.

I am wondering what you consider "start" of a bullrun?  Do you mean when the BTC has bottomed and starts to go up, or does the BTC price already have to get "above certain price thresholds" before qualifying for the "start of the bullrun?"


Damned.

And there might be a delay too..

double fuck.


Well, at least there's that.  will just keep buying, just in case your dream comes true.


Aren't you the smartest person (the most special unique lil snowflake) that I never did meet?  Thank god that I never did meet uie-pooie.


You really deserve a batslappening for that crap.

What about the difference between crypto and bitcoin?  Would that be important to mention?  

Fact of the matter remains, for this here cat, I don't even know what the fuck "crypto" is...   so there's that angle, too.  Or is it just me? (rhetorical question)

P.S... As pointed out by Gachapin (here).. I can understand how the original cited satire article (from the Onion) might purposefully convolute the idea of bitcoin and crypto... (though I am not sure about the extent to which their convolution was purposeful. .. I would speculate that a satire article is purposeful in its choice of words - though of course, it cannot be expected that a satirist would automatically (and in all scenarios) understand the significance of his/her chosen words)


oh gawd..  

you two should get a room, and discuss (#homo)...

 


That's a good start.

Get in the mood first.



Oh my..   you are really serious about proposing to meet.. ... fuck both of you twats...

Hopefully, guys around here are careful about their Opsec, even retards like the two of you.  Some of these retards, even one or both of the two of you, might actually be innocent (even if they are sometimes (or even frequently) annoying).

Of course, they are not selling in any kind of meaningful and/or material way - except to be able to harvest a tax loss (as they had explained) - which is also a relatively small amount of sale and/or small amount of tax loss harvesting. 


No it is not strange.


It seems that all stocks are down. Seems like a BIG SO WHAT? to me.


Well our so far bottom for this correction is $15,479, so of course, it is possible to fairly easily break below $16.5k, especially since we have been in that range for nearly two weeks...

Again.. seems like a BIG SO WHAT?


Well.. look.  You are back.

Who would've thunk?

Welcome back!!!!!!

 


If you are responding the same way to everything, then it may well be quite likely you are missing some nuance..

But, hey whatever.  

If you are not buying bitcoin and/or sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP, then that's on you.


Point me to a post, and we will see if I agree or not and if not how I might not disagree.  Anyone can say I told you after the fact.. That's easy peasy.


I don't know.  I stand by my earlier comment (or my earlier probing), if that's why you are trying to verify.  Do I (we?) need to revisit anything?  You are quoting me from late September?  Do we have the same facts or similar facts or how is it that you are wanting to engage at this point?  What's our topic?  You said that you would not be back, and you are back.  So here we are.  

What do you want to discuss?  Saylor gambles too much from your point of view, and I don't think that he is gambling too much, but so what.  Do you want to revisit that?  He can do what he wants, no?  Question is what are you doing?  Are you failing/refusing to sufficiently/adequately stack sats because you fear that there are too many gamblers in the BTC space who still need to be purged before the BTC price can continue UP?


You mean that you want to argue about whether Saylor is gambling too much?  You and I have already presented our points on this topic, no?


Why is there a need to be right?  Everyone assigns probabilities to various events.  Maybe you assign 75% and I assign 65% or there might be some other variation.  Are you wanting to assign 90% or 100%, then maybe that's why I am tending to quibble so much with you.  If you were closer in the ballpark as me then I would likely not even say anything, but for reasons that I have already asserted, many times, I find you to be too extreme in terms of what you are predicting and then for some reason you feel that you want to be right blah blah blah..  

Why does it matter if you are right? What's the difference between reasonable assessments that might be extreme, except if one person is being unrealistic in his/her assessment and assigning way too high of probabilities because s/he thinks s/he is smarter than everyone else?


You can set whatever goalposts that you believe to be relevant to the points/arguments that you are wanting to make.  It's a bit of an extreme to be saying that he is gambling too much and then say.. look at FTX, they were gambling too much too.  You seemed to have had suggested earlier in your post that Saylor and FTX may well be the same, but you do not have any evidence for that beyond a feeling, and also there is plenty of evidence to show both that Saylor and FTX are not even close to the same, but whatever, if you want to make those kinds of lame, fear-mongering and seemingly attention whoring kinds of comparisons, then that's up to you.  

Frequently nuance can make a difference between figuring out if someone's strategy is merely aggressive rather than deranged, even though you would like to treat the two as if they were the same.  Go figure?

You seem to be bouncing around a lot in your bitcoin price projection ideas shahzadafzal.  You had first asserted that there would be a new ATH in 1st quarter 2023.. and then now you are proclaiming that an ATH is not even likely in 2023 at all.   Strange that.

Personally, I believe that it is not very likely to get an ATH in the first quarter of 2023, and even it may well be a stretch to get an ATH in either the 2nd quarter or the 3rd quarter of 2023, so in that regard, I guess my framework would be that the longer the timeline, the more the odds for an ATH happening go up.

Yes, we are quite a stretch depressed from our November 2021 ATH of $69k, so in that regard, several resistance points (and even incentives to take profits on the way up) have likely established themselves between our current price and that $69k price.

Personally, I hate to lock-in too many specific bitcoin price performance frameworks that I expect to be possible to play out, so in that regard, I remain quite hesitant to be poo-pooing the various ways in which BTC's price performance can be manipulated in ways that those who are able to either manipulate or take advantage of situations are able to push the price in order to potentially reck the most other people. 

In other words, I am not going to write off 2023... and surely many of us likely realize that we don't even need any kind of new ATH to be in a profitable place.. including even getting stuck in the $20ks for the whole of 2023 is not really going to be very painful for a large number of the longer term HODLers who have already figured out a variety of ways that they need not sell more BTC, they may well be fine with just continuing to accumulate BTC at whatever price below the $69k price point.. so whether BTC price trickle upwardly or bounce around violently between $14k and $50k, there may not be too many significant and/or meaningful changes from the longer term HODLers.. except maybe the recent lesson of keeping lower and lower percentages of the overall BTC stash on exchanges and/or with third parties.

So probably my BIGGEST gripe with your seemingly waffling around shahzadafzal is that in this most recent waffling post, you seem to be putting too much emphasis on the "it's not going to happen" proclamation when it is likely that the possible scenarios in bitcoinlandia are quite a bit broader than the seemingly specific assertions attempts that you have been making.

Well, maybe that's why it reminded me to tell you such a thing?  Duh.


Your main points sucks bags of dicks, then. #justsaying


What I do know is that each of us have our positive points and our limitations and some of those are features and some are bugs. Repetitiveness could fall into either category - especially when having to respond a droning dweeb, like ur lil selfie.


I do say.  That's why I said it.


That's both not going to happen, and it is dumb.  Wow.  You scored two points simultaneously with that lame-ass suggestion.


Ok.  Maybe I used the wrong words?   so let me clarify.  Easy solutions need to be smart and practical too, and also to have the potential of at least not making things worse.  What you propose seems to make things worse... and probably because you fail/refuse to see that the current merit system is already providing a benefit in terms of reducing scammers, spammers and shills - which seems to be most of the reason that it was introduced.  We can agree to disagree on this point.  It's not like we are going to make progress in discussing it, and your whining about your NOT liking the status quo... so fucking what.  You are a brand new member who has no reputation anyhow.  You can go to any platform to build your reputation, especially if you are starting from zero.  How long have you been here?  like a week, right?  I just looked at your profile.. registration date 12/21/22. One week ago, as I type this post.


Don't think too long.  I already noticed that thinking very long will likely hurt you.**

**I am just trying to look out for others.  I am "caring" like that sometimes.

I am not opposed to the idea of theymos rotating merit sources, especially if he believes that some of us have accumulated too many merits and we are likely receiving way more credibility than we deserve..

So without really getting into the character of each or any of those specific members that you mentioned, I do not disagree with the general point that you are making in this particular example.


Fantasy thoughts of violence.  Don't really seem healthy, but hey, whatever.

You do you.

 


It's not a "pitch."  It's a statement to acknowledge where we be actually at - as I type this post.


Hm?  I had not realized.


Closed.  I don't think so.

I am pretty closed to shitcoins, even though I do entertain a little bit of some of the talk around shitcoins - not easy to completely avoid or ignore.


I doubt it.

Of course.. believe what you like.


You don't bother me... that much.. being annoyed from time to time is part of any interactions. It's pretty much a nothing burger in regards to whatever point that you are trying to make in regards to my having some kinds of materially relevant feelings towards uie-pooie.

So, can you go suck that bag of dicks now?***

***I am trying to figure out a way to ease out this "awkward" moment that you seem to keep wanting to pull "us" (if there is such a thing?) back into.

Not sure what is crypto, nor do I give too many fucks.  I would think that a service provider should try to accept bitcoin and/or lightning network payments... .

...and yeah maybe they can accept some shitcoins and convert them to bitcoin or to dollars right away.. and sure some shitcoiners would maybe want to find some ways to off-load their shitcoins, but I am not sure how that would be bringing much meaning towards the various kinds of concerns that bitcoin users may well be attempting to address in terms of decentralization and various attempts at self-autonomy.... except surely there could be some deflection values in terms of the various shitcoins that are out there and are being promoted, talked about in ambiguous ways as if there was meaning therein and/or used.

Regarding any business needing to accept bitcoin in order to be bitcoin-friendly, sure it is understandable that some businesses may well have some constrains towards being able to receive depending on their jurisdiction (tax, accounting, reporting and maybe others, perhaps?), but I would imagine that any companies doing business in and around bitcoin should attempt to address the issue in regards to explaining their payment methods and maybe mentioning if they intend to accept bitcoin in the future or if they feel that they are restrained from being able to accept bitcoin (and provide a reason for why they are not accepting bitcoin, if that is their current status)... of course, if they choose to accept some shitcoin then maybe they should specify, and hopefully they are not using dumb-ass vague language that hardly means anything, unless there is some specification regarding what it means.. .. "crypto-friendly?" what the fuck is that?

By the way, the Contabo statement (See below) about how they are not currently accepting bitcoin payments is a bit lame.. but at least they have an explanation to help to inform their clients regarding the extent to which they seem to have a decently good explanation or some lame one, like Contabo (from my perspective) has a fairly lame one (at this time).

>>>>>>What About Paying with Bitcoin or Other Crypto?
We don’t have plans to start accepting Bitcoins or other cryptocurrencies as a form of payment in Contabo. The main reason is volatility of most coins, which means that we would have to adjust the prices multiples times a day. Second, more important reason is the fact that many coins have a negative impact on the climate. Even Tesla eventually decided to stop accepting Bitcoin. <<<<<

I agree that there are degrees of delusionalness, and frequently, it is not gong to be easy to determine when the "going into the 'expert' " might be the right step.  I am a little skeptical of supposed experts and relying on "expert" advice, but sometimes there can be tools, such as lab tests, surgeries, medication, knowledge of tactics that might be available.. and currently out of reach.  Surely crowd sources can be a powerful tool too.. but sometimes we can be lead down the wrong path when we think that we know more than we know - which get's us back to the utility of "experts".. the utility of consulting with peeps who spend a lot of time studying and looking into questions that may well be not easily answered on a superficial level and from persons with less training and background.


Looks like a bunch of bullshit to me... just like Hamza2424 mentioned in that linked post that links the twitter post...   

Sure, there have been various discussions regarding GBTC (Grayscale) and related businesses for at least 6-7 weeks - at least around the time that there were realizations that GBTC and Genesis (Genesis had taken something like a $1.2 billion loan from Grayscale - or was it the other way around?) had some relations to Alameda (and therefore FTX/SBF).  So yeah, there is something like a $1 billion-ish shortfall in funds that are needing to be covered but there are a variety of ways out of the matter, including that GBTC had recently (in the past week or so) discussed the possibility of liquidating something like 20% of those 635k BTC.. which may well mean that those coins would go to the holder of GBTC shares..  

Fillippone has an "Everything you wanted to know thread" on such topic - but that thread has not had any updates in the past week.

Part of my point is that there are all kinds of possibilities, and mere claims of futility of the fund, doom and gloom and suggestions that it is all going down seem overblown including whether that "going down" is even likely to happen and even if it were to happen, it may well not be as negatively impactful as the FUD-spreaders are making such "going down" out to be - unless it turns out that GBTC does not have the 635k coins that they claim to have - and I am not even sure if that would necessarily be bearish - even though it would end up fucking up a lot of GBTC shareholders (more relatively affluent people getting fucked by shenanigans.. like the FTX bullshit ended up fucking up a lot of relatively affluent people and not so much the normies who had been attempting to protect their lil selfies by mostly holding their own keys...  - in other words, seems to be ongoing lessons in the value of bearer assets, such as bitcoin, and showing needs to be skeptical/concerned about giving too much power to 3rd parties.. yeah.. give them a little but don't put all of your eggs in the third-party holding your assets basket, if you can).

Yep.. there are many folks who are new to bitcoin, and they believe that they are learning "quality" information when they start fucking around with various shitcoins and also diluting the possibilities of their BTC investment in terms of time, energies and money invested.

Bitcoin is too boring for some of them.. grandpa coin, remember?

In the meantime, they get distracted into mostly valueless nonsense, and they don't even know what "grandpa coin" is. .They think that they know, but they have not spent enough time figuring out what they think that they know but that they do not know.

Frequently, I suggest for newbies to bitcoin to start with bitcoin first, and spend time accumulating it and perhaps learning about it. and if there has been a couple of years of BTC investment and accumulation then maybe there might be some need (perhaps?) to look into other matters.. and surely I understand the allure, too.. because what seems to happen is that various shitcoins, defi, NFTs, ICOs and other non-bitcoin crypto bullshit lure people away into thinking that their time, energies and money will be better spent on the 20,000 plus various non-bitcoin projects that again distract away from where the value should be focused (on bitcoin)..

....so those shit projects are lures, and if you dabble a little bit, you may end up getting sucked in.. like a slippery slope in which a little bit of looking into it likely ends up polluting your thinking into gobbledy-gook that lacks foundation and sufficient attachment to various realities - including that bitcoin builds on strong foundation, and surely there is a lot to learn, even with the lightning network, it should be possible to stay busy in bitcoin for 2-5 years at least before even feeling like you have a decent enough grasp on it that you might consider possible value in looking into shitcoins, too.

That reminds me to tell you to:  "go suck a bag of dicks."


yea.. whatever.

What do you know with your largely ongoing distracting disinformative spoutings (or should I describe them as whimperings?)?

Sure, the merit system has issues, and sure maybe theymos should be rotating merit sources more (which would be a lot of work, by the way).  It seems to me that the merit system solves more problems than it creates in terms of posting incentives.. so it seems to discourage and make obstacles for shills, spammers and scammers who rank up merely by posting on a regular basis (in spite of content), so the merit system adds an element that each member has to achieve in order to rank up, which is the receipt of merits.. (which surely has some subjective elements and also some potential bias aspects and also maybe gives too much power to merit source members too... ).. but then what would be the solution smartie panties (aka uie-pooie - Antisthenes)? 

Likely there is no real easy solution, and you are complaining about something that is likely NOT even close to as bad as you are making it out to be.. because the merit system does not do what you are even claiming that it does - ie. "deflects and distracts attention from the important stuff, empowering scammers."  That's bullshit.  It does the exact opposite, you dimwit. 


How about you remember that you're not the boss of me.  Also, while we are at it, you might as well remember that we are in a public thread too, so if you don't want people to respond to you, you need to figure out some other behaviors (strategies/tactics) that work for uie-pooie rather than posting within such public thread(s)..  Any member can respond to your mostly dip-witted fantastical bullshit to whatever extent that they want to (or that they can make any sense of it?) or to refrain from responding to your tending to be dumb-ass posts at their discretion, including but not limited to yours truly.


FFS - you come off as delirious about 9 out of 10 of your posts (if I might be a wee bit too generous in my estimation?  but I am like that, sometimes).

In other words, 9 out of 10 dentists would proclaim that you are a cavity... a pox upon this house.   

I will supplement by suggesting that there has been some aspect of education in regards to bitcoin that has been included in El Salvador's bitcoin approach from the start.  First of all the embracing of bitcoin was a way to cause the El Salvador population to need to pay attention to what is bitcoin and what is being added in their country in regards to bitcoin.   Surely the more formal schools and programs have been developing along with the various ways that the government is less formally supporting bitcoin.

It is likely that El Salvador has already been successful in regards to their decision to add bitcoin as a legal tender and also as  a possible payment option and to attempt to incentivize the public to pay more attention to this route forward - even if there has been a decently large UP (up from $30k-ish to $69k) during their initial period of getting into BTC from Mid-2021 to late 2021 and then the current correction (that has so far gone down to $15,479 on November 21, 2022 - which is around 76% correction) that we find ourselves in.

Bitcoin naysayers seem to revel in the extent of BTC's current price correction - and even suggesting that there might be some calamities within bitcoin that are perceptible because bitcoin is even below it December 2017 price peak of $19,666.   Yet, there's no real solid, material and/or convincing evidence that bitcoin's investment thesis is getting worse with the passage of time or that there are any real meaningful challenges to bitcoin - even though we have also witnessed a lot of overleveraging, fraud and perhaps even attacks on bitcoin through the ways that various kinds of players were using bitcoin as a mean to steal money from bitcoiners or to deceive the public - and surely maybe even contribute towards confusion in regards to how much bitcoin should be implicated in regards to how some folks might get greedy or engage in shady or criminal behaviors that are using bitcoin as one of their value liquidation mechanisms - or in the case of FTX, they were engaged in deceptive behaviors to attempt to fool people into believing that they had more bitcoin than they really had.... and so those kinds of behaviors can contribute to how people view (or are confused in regards to) bitcoin.

The low, so far, for this correction has been $15,479 (on November 21).

That does not make any sense because 1st of all, bitcoin is not ON some kind of a set schedule in terms of price, even though there are halvenings coming up as you have referenced.

Secondly, why are you saying Hold?  Is there a need to make sure you have enough first?  What about buying and accumulating?  Are you assuming that someone already had accumulated?  When was this?  how much? And what are the other circumstances of such assumed person that you advising to Hold?


What's "crypto"?  Does it somehow relate to the topic of this thread?


Huh?  That should have been easy to recall.  Funny I could not remember it.  I need to go for a doctor (or psych) check-up.


Well if "experts" say that it is dumping it must be true.      Who would have thunk?


I don't know.

Bitcoin comes to people at the time that they become more receptive to it.  There's an expression (or is it a meme?) that reflects that same idea that you cannot really force adoption, people get bitcoin at the price they deserve. 

In that regard, bitcoin adoption seems to take a decently long time.  We see signs of considerable growth (such as increases in price) and we see corrections in the price, and of course, price is not the ONLY way to measure adoption.. even though I am not sure if there is a way to rush the adoption process. 

Bitcoin seems to be growing and it is expanding and people are becoming more and more aware of it and even starting to allocate more and more value to it, but even with bitcoin's growth, it still seems to take a decently long time to make progress with some random person that you might ask on the street if they know about bitcoin and if they own any.. and then if they do own some bitcoin, then is it any kind of meaningful allocation or just dust amounts...

 I have my doubts about whether there are very many ways to speed up adoption.. tick tock, another block, every 10 minutes.... even though now there are likely many more millions of people who are actively and meaningfully investing into bitcoin, and that number is likely higher than it was in late 2013 when I first got started in my bitcoin investment journey.. so it seems that each cycle (4 years or so), we have new people who are coming into bitcoin and becoming convicted about establishing (and maintaining) an investment allocation into bitcoin.

Yes.  It seems that I accounted for that it was only an example.. or illustration or whatever.


You're still not really saying much of anything.  So what?  Largely you seem to be recognizing some potentially conceded hypotheticals, and the points that you are trying to make?  How do your points relate to what we are talking about here?  


Oh gawd..    You just love simple scenarios.   Yes.. there was a lot of bullshit fraud going on in the SBF/FTX/Alameda case.  Yes.. the US Govt seems to be quite threatened by bitcoin from several angles... so there seems to be various kinds of mud-stirring going on that might involve collusion to allow SBF/FTX/Alameda to fuck around with bitcoin in terms of not having bitcoin to back up what they were doing and to be engaged in a kind of fractional reserve that involved no bitcoin.. and a lot of fake shit.. yes.. so what?  what are you saying? exactly?  Are you trying to make some narrow causal statements in regards to how dirty the USA Govt is going to play and that's why you don't believe in buying bitcoin and instead you are going to buy I-Bonds?


It does not really clarify very much.  We don't disagree that various kinds of shit is happening that relates to bitcoin, and it has historically been happening, and it is likely to continue to happen and also we are still discovering some of the various connections of SBF/FTX/Alameda to bitcoin and surely, there might be some attempts to cover some of that up too, but it may well be too difficult to cover some of those relationships up.. We will see, but bitcoin is not merely about the description that picks out various things that are going on and then NOT really having much of any kind of point except maybe to say things are messy or maybe you want to say BTC prices are going down?  or would you rather say that bitcoin prices are going up?  You see that it sometimes can be difficult to figure out what point that you are wanting to make..

yes, we know that there are all kinds of dynamics that relate to cost of living getting worse for Americans.  Are you familiar with any of Jeff Booth's ideas in terms of the price of tomorrow or even maybe some of the podcasts that he has recently participated in?  I can give you some links, but I am not sure if that will help if you might not listen to them and you just point out various facts that a lot of us really already know, but just pointing out "stream of conscious" facts does not always necessarily lead to the various conclusions that you want to make.. or your speculations about when x, y or z is going to happen.  Does it?  

I know that you just love to make specific predictions, but what good is that going to do?   maybe a lot of us might NOT be in great disagreement if you are making directional and long term predictions rather than specifics (as long as you keep your stupid-ass talking up of doggie coin or keep litecoin pumping out of it), but if you are trying to lock-in specific kinds of short-term predictions in a sorcerer guru wannabe way, then you are more likely to receive push back.. maybe not from everyone..


If you had read the post, I am going by the 200-week moving average which is currently $24,400..   I am not suggesting that any BTC would be spent below the 200-week moving average.. but the 200-week moving average can likely serve as a kind of gauge for folks who are long-term oriented.

If you are thinking in dollars and you are wanting to cash out right now, then yeah you will need more, but not too many people here are very excited about holding much of their Investment portfolio in dollars, except maybe you.

Yes, I will concede also that an investment portfolio would not necessarily ONLY have bitcoin and dollars in it, so there are a lot of ways to end up feeling that you are either at or pretty fucking close to fuck you status, merely because you currently have 82 BTC and perhaps some other assets?  

Perhaps you also have stocks and bonds and property and some PMs and maybe you even have a pension plan and social security too... whether your age is 50 or you might be another age would also contribute whether you consider yourself to be close to entry level fuck you status or perhaps exceeding it.  We would need to figure out what is the whole package before we start to poo poo someone who happens to have 82 BTC at this time and to be suggesting that maybe they don't have enough, because I would think that a 50 year old with 82 bitcoin right now would feel as if he is in pretty decent shape.. except perhaps if you are trying to spin the whole situation into an assertion that this vacuous and gambling 50 year old does not have anything except the 82 bitcoin, and yeah, then he is in a much worse situation if he has not really balanced out his investments in a variety of ways and he has not been able to generate any other cashflow sources in his life.. so maybe if he were to ONLY have 82 bitcoin in your spinning of the scenario, then maybe he would have to keep working or find a job in which he can build other aspect (assets within) his investment portfolio before he is able to feel that he is at or near fuck you status. 

By the way, there are a lot of ways to measure wealth, and I have never been the one to suggest to put all of your assets in bitcoin, and I also believe diversification is a good idea, especially once you start to build your investment portfolio.. and yeah, when I refer to diversification, I am not referring to buying shitcoins.. .

Yes.. some people do have a problem with the idea of borrowing money in order to invest in bitcoin.  That's why I responded to you in that post in the way that I did - and as an attempt to clarify how loans could be used in such a way that is not as big of a "problem" as some folks, including you MarjorieZimmermanGinger, were generally describing the practice of borrowing to buy bitcoin.


Yes.  I said that it was a problem for OP to be expecting 2x to 5x returns in 2 years even though other people make the same mistake.  And, yes it might happen, but it is a problem to assign too high of a probability to such expectations, as OP seemed to have had been doing.  Just because a lot of people do it does not mean that there should not be some kind of an attempt to clarify the matter, which was what I was doing.


So what?  The reason that he is doing it is a so fucking what?  Do you think that a lot of us are not already familiar with the various theories why the BTC price might go up?  And, yes it might go up, but it might not.  That is part of the clarification that I was attempting to describe, so I am not sure why you are going back to the idea that the BTC price might go up.  That's already known that it might go up, and it is already known that there are cycle theories and all kinds of BTC prediction frameworks, but just because there is a prediction framework, that does NOT guarantee that the BTC price is going to follow such BTC price prediction framework.


Now you are repeating the same thing that I just said.


Well, that's a fair statement/question.  I had made a post on estimating the best case scenario if OP only has to pay interest, and then pay the principle at the end, but there could be other ways that the pay back terms are outlined by the bank.  So far OP has not described that, as far as I can recall not seeing any such description of how the loan is meant to be paid back.  Maybe OP can clarify the terms upon which he is suppose to pay back his loan?
 

Well, OP seems to be gambling that he is not going to lose.  Yeah, so far his the BTC price seems to be going the wrong way, but it is still possible that he could end up profiting from the loan if the BTC price goes up in such a way that covers both his principle and the fees that he is supposed to pay.

Can't remember what it means.

Brain no doesn't work that great at all times.


 


I recall that the largest bitcoin miner (Core Scientific) had filed for bankruptcy.

But that's probably not related.

 

Lookie uie pooie   

Merit begging through reverse psychology.






Merit begging



Merit begging




Merit begging 






You Fuck.



Exactly!!!  That's what I had b trying to say.



What are you going to do?  Throw your cookies & milk on the floor?

Go on...

Do it.

Do it.


I can ONLY do so much to attempt to help you to help ur lil selfie.

Hint, Hint:   Remember you are looking at shadows on the cave wall, try to find and then move closer to the entrance of the cave, then at least you will start to get closer to the light.   Also, it may be good if you can try to move close enough to the entrance in order that you are able to actually see outside.

Yes.  I know.  Baby steps.

I am not going to expect you to be ready, willing and/or able to go straight outside.

But, if you would at least move towards the entrance, you will be making progress in contrast to where you seem to be, currently.

To me, it looks like you are richie.   


Sure there is going to be some variance in the timeline on a lot of these matters, and for sure, the longer that any of us had contributed into a system, then we might have become reliant upon being able to get some income stream from various work-related retirement systems that we had invested into.

Attacks on the pension systems had surely gone into higher modes since the 80s, and yes it seems that there was borrowing against and mal-investment in regards to social security systems too - since those systems should have been self-sustaining, except that the government was allowed to borrow against that particular system - and yeah of course other health and welfare benefits have been juggled in a variety of ways too... to contribute towards difficulties in keeping them solvent.  

So, yes some of those systems have decent chances of imploding..

Of course, many of us in bitcoin have considered that bitcoin is a way to supplement or to replace some of the other directions that we might have otherwise been able to receive cashflow after we are no longer ready, willing and/or able to work.

Some of us may have been contributing more heavily into bitcoin, and it may have not even been for reasons of believing that we were going to need bitcoin to supplement our status quo cashflow areas, but then maybe in more recent times, including since March 2020, it has become more apparent (to some folks) that various aspects of status quo and traditional systems are imploding faster and more severely than we thought to be likely or possible.

I am not sure if 20 BTC is going to be enough to supplement the cashflow of any person, even though it seems that something like 100 BTC right now would be enough - yet of course, devil is in the details in regards to how much we need and when we need it..

I guess when I mentioned 100 BTC being enough, it is building on Phillipma's assertion from a month ago or so that 100BTC would not be enough for a 50-year old right now, and saying dumb shit about that 50-year old needing to sell some of his BTC blah blah blah.. which just seemed bonkers to me... actually to me it seems that around 82 BTC would be more than enough to be in entry-level fuck you status as long as you are able to wait until the BTC price returns above $24.4k - assuming that at some point in the coming 3-12 months or so that BTC prices will return above the 200-week moving average that is currently at $24.4k.

Anyway, of course, money management.. and of course no guarantees.. and surely by the time we start to get into our 50s or later, then it would seem that many of us shoudl have already created and maintained some investment portfolio that goes beyond merely having BTC and perhaps taking our other income sources, whether social security, pension, 401ks and/or other sources like that with a grain of salt... but still the various uncertain sources of income likely have greater than zero present value.. unless you really are assigning high values to Armagaeddon scenarios.