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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368714 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
shahzadafzal
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December 26, 2022, 07:44:30 PM
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Hello friends. I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas!

Old poll results:


No 2022 in the poll? Tongue

Welcome back!

That's the spirit we need bro...!!!!
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philipma1957
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December 26, 2022, 07:48:26 PM
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I went for 2025.

Although it could be Nov or Dec 2024
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December 26, 2022, 07:54:43 PM
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AI's rendition of an overclocked PC case...  Shocked



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December 26, 2022, 08:01:16 PM


Explanation
Gachapin
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December 26, 2022, 08:33:15 PM

However since shahzadafzal didn't answer my proposal for a bet yet, I was hesitant to poke the next guy with a bet, as I'm by no means a betting person and I didn't want to come off as one...  

That was a bet? I mean that was just a sarcastic smiley.. look..

Regardless of who you support, I think we can all agree (except for the odd alpaca) that BTC should have made a new ATH by the latter. Smiley
First Quarter of 2023
wanna bet some BTC ?  Smiley

I mean I could take it like you meant... it will be ATH even before first quarter of 2023.

Btw since BitcoinBunny mentioned alpaca aka llama, I was poking this singing llama with that comment Cheesy

No the smiley was meant as a nice smiley...  like a nice invitation  Cheesy


For clarification: I'm a hardcore hodler and I would love to see an ATH soon. It would give me so much joy that I would happily part with some of my BTC when I lose this bet.

As I understand it you mean before end of 1st quarter 2023 (31st March 2023) we will see another ATH on Bitstamp? (last ATH was exactly at 69,000 USD)

I would say no, and bet against it.  However, I love my BTC and I'm no gambler so I wouldn't bet much. Just some "change" (maybe up to 0.1 BTC or so) in a 1 : 1 bet.

I'm also very happy without betting, so please feel free to join or not.




As per JJG calculations I’m still at my accumulation stage… so I'm not opening my BTC wallet unless it’s for WO $100k Yacht party or for my pen-is enlargement surgery.

Btw I’m against betting or gambling.



Ok. No problem. Thanks for your consideration!


Some thoughts however:

If you are in accumulation phase and you are sure of an ATH in 1st qtr. 2023 (which I myself really hope for), it certainly would be a nice chance to get more BTC for free, just by putting your BTC where your mouth is.

Even if you are against betting, 0.1BTC, now 1,700$ will be around 7,000$ at the next ATH. And having 7k$ more BTC in 3 months should actually be a nice motivation to make an exception from your rule.

Don't get me wrong... as I said I don't like betting either, but it wouldn't make much sense not to do it, when I could have a relatively certain 0.1BTC more in my wallet.  
...in addition, if you win, you get at least a 7k$ value, whereas when I win, I get less than that $ value maybe even under the initial value of 1,700$...

So I have the feeling that I'm just more confident winning (increasing my stash) than you are...


But anyways. Thanks again, and have some nice last days of '22.


btw, I guess you must have been the first guy choosing 2023 for the new ATH in the poll (now it's already 3)
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December 26, 2022, 08:42:06 PM

Someone please change my merit count I just hate the 3 x 6 situation  Roll Eyes

yeeeh duderino... Wink

Hi Wall Observer Guyes I missed my all Old friend and honorable person,



Merry
Christmas


[...]
BitcoinGirl.Club[...]


And many more guyes whose names I have forgotten at the moment.

Love all guyes...

Edited.
I am alive, Merry Christmas

BitcoinGirl.Club don't fall for the username... it's a trap! Smiley
😂

Observing @ $16,840
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December 26, 2022, 08:51:35 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Gachapin (1)

AI's rendition of an overclocked PC case...  Shocked



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Needs more cooling
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December 26, 2022, 09:01:21 PM


Explanation
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December 26, 2022, 09:41:19 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Their grip is getting ever tighter.  TPTB / Deep State were grasping ever more in 2022.  They will keep at it in 2023.

+1 WO’s merit.


"Someone should start some threads showing us some practical steps"

I was actually thinking if there is a LGBTQtalk forum in existence, containing a Grooming Observer, to go there and take da piss.
Bob?



EDIT: Especially easy steps.  For me, perhaps some of us as well as the n00bs we need to join the BTC community and keep our assets and selves safe from predation.

OK, I’ll bite. Wink



fwiw I read somewhere that miners shutting down to support the grid get financially compensated for that...

Well, as my favourite AI puts it, “link or it didn’t happen”.
I find it like a bad joke tbh.



We’re going to have a new ATH, 9-12 months after the 2024 halving.



So, some practical and easy steps anyone can follow, to protect - to an extent - their privacy.
I by no means claim to be an expert on anything, but I do have a gut that rarely disappoints, which helps to navigate through the jungle of scamming apps and software.

- Silent pocket.
It’s imperative to throw away your tracking device. Because of the way the system is rigged, it’s next to impossible now-days. So what’s the next best thing? Silence that eavesdropping device by sticking it into a Faraday Cage, and using it only when absolutely necessary. Stickers on all cameras are also a must, and as for the biometric face recognition and location services, fuck them and have them permanently off. SIM attack countermeasures have come a long way too, now services take time to enable, after a new SIM has been activated.

- PGP, ProtonEmail, ProtonVPN.
Proton offers free email and VPN for its users. It uses zero-access encryption by default, and is very easy to use even if you’re a moron. Zero-access encryption means that even if your password is exposed, your data [emails] are protected by a 12-word phrase - written on piece of paper. Sound familiar? I’ve tried many VPN services, and most of them fail one test or another. ProtonVPN passes the IP leak test successfully.

- Browsers.
There are many browsers to use these days [Brave, Dissenter], but my favourite one is Mozilla. Private browsing always enabled of course - that always deletes all the cookies upon exit. I won’t go on about Tor, because it can make your life difficult, as it remains the very best. A Tor router and a VPN over Tor though, locally on your device, should do the trick. Your network response will increase greatly, but so will your privacy.

- Instant messaging/calls.
I’m not going to even mention mainstream social media platforms, and how you should stay the fuck away from all of them. Signal is one of the best around, as it uses real end-to-end encryption, and not the bullshit ones that other spyware apps use.

- Operating Systems.
I won’t go there either, because they require technical expertise greater than the average Joe, and this evades the point of this post.

- Cars.
Cars these days - are also data mining devices on their own. Stay away from anything with an embedded GPS that you cannot turn off. Even better get an old car that has next to zero electronics. Preferably a gasoline powered one, with abundant litres and horse power, just to stick it to the climate change system. Boy are they fun to drive, and I’m such a stubborn petrolhead. Basically anything “smart” is dumb as fuck, and contributes to the surveillance agenda.

All the above of course mean very little if you’re a threat to the matrix. Their tech is far more superior than what is known to the public, as they’ve back-doored and master-keyed anything from RSA keys, to my mothers vagina. LOL. Why bother then, one might ask? I’ll leave that to the random reader to answer.

Thank God we have Bitcoin.

#we.are.all.Satoshi
#we.are.all.Snowden
#we.are.all.nullius
#we.are.all.anonymous
Gachapin
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December 26, 2022, 10:10:22 PM

fwiw I read somewhere that miners shutting down to support the grid get financially compensated for that...
Well, as my favourite AI puts it, “link or it didn’t happen”.
I find it like a bad joke tbh.

sry couldn't find the article that I read anymore...

but here is an older one from summer:
https://fortune.com/2022/07/12/texas-bitcoin-miners-paid-shut-down-power-grid-electricity-blackout-heat/

For me it makes sense. Miners provide an important service to grid security by relinquishing some of their profits. I think that's worth a (partial) compensation.
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December 26, 2022, 10:13:32 PM

Bitcoin volatility continues to break all time lows. I know I keep saying it, but it’s amazing what we’re seeing in such unstable times. This is a great signal that deep pockets are accumulating and slowly increasing the price as demand outweighs supply. With the halving coming soon, you have a limited amount of time to get on the ship before takeoff. Maybe a year or two.
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December 26, 2022, 10:45:53 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Adding to Antisthenes' list of privacy tools:

VeraCrypt — A free, open-source (any closed-source encryption tool should be considered as compromised) encryption software for Windows, Mac OSX and Linux.
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December 26, 2022, 10:50:22 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

‘Hey LFC_Bitcoin, tell us again about that time you went all in on BTC when everyone else laughed & called it a ponzi.

I love that story, you absolute fucking Chad, especially at Christmas after a few wines’

🎄🎅🧡



your GF? Nice...
Merry Christmas!

If his GF's name is Eva Vlaardingerbroek, then it is his GF...
Otherwise it might be his Christmas wish...
But I don't know.
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December 26, 2022, 11:01:16 PM


Explanation
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December 27, 2022, 12:33:40 AM
Merited by infofront (1), Popkon6 (1)

[edited out]
How the fuck do you write so much ?

I don't know.  It just seems to happen to happen.



Not complaining as I post like a mofo but not with the precise writing that you try to do.

Fair enough.

I tend  to write like James Joyce just let it rip.

Stream of consciousness style.

Will have to keep that in mind for the next time that I am working towards critiquing something in your direction... .and maybe say:  "fuck that James Joyce bullshit" or whatever might be the critique.

I have a USA based theory of why the gov does these games with interest.

Surely you should be able to appreciate that we go beyond the USA in this thread and in this forum - even though we are talking about the USD as the other side of the trading pair listed in OP.

I base it on the Long Island railroad retirement system.

see below:

My step dad is 90 years old.
He worked for the Long Island Railroad from the age of 22  to 52

he has been in retirement for 38 years. 8 years longer than he worked.

his son my stepbrother is 60
he got a job in 1984 or 1985 with the long Island railroad he was 22 or 23.

He retired at 55 he is on pension for 7 years.

his son is 25 he is working at the Long Island railroad for 3 years.

The model above does not work cannot work if every family in the USA was setup the way they are it all falls apart.

Why would you want to lock yourself into some model that has been undergoing all kind of changes over several generations, and even the design of work evolved within previous work/employee/retirement plan systems.

Some of those kinds of guaranteed pension jobs still exist - but they are so fucking rare that it makes little sense to base your thinking on those kinds of systems, or even proclamations that certain kinds of jobs are disappearing and blah blah blah. 

There are a lot of kinds of industries that exist, and there are various kinds of changes in world dynamics too - in terms of how WWI and WWII had played out that put the USA into a kind of advantaged position that is undergoing changes, and sure there might be some possibilities that the USD might be able to hang onto dominance in one or two more 12 year cycles?  and even the cycles are changing and the dynamics from within trying to keep all of the balls in the air could come crashing down... or maybe not any time soon.. but still consider ways to be prepared for various kinds of balls-crashing-down scenarios.

So the feds play pendulum with war ,interest rates ,unemployment . In an effort to keep it all from imploding.

Now I would argue it has not fully imploded since 1929-1939 which they fixed with WWII.

I am hoping they avoid the next full implosion better than they did back then.

We will have a much better idea by 2024 Nov just how fucked the USA will be.

In a general way, I cannot disagree with any of that.. except that I still believe that when we get into specifics and your various ways of trying to prognosticate short term matters
 - especially how it pertains to my lil precious, you come to all kinds of weird and inaccurate conclusions, and still wondering why the fuck does any presidential election matter as much as you are suggestion of how much importance you seem to be putting within a stupid-ass timeline involving USA presidential politics? Maybe you should flesh out your hypothesis a bit - even though it is likely to just lead to more nonsense and even contribute towards my throwing up my Christmas meal from yesterday because you will be trying to outline specifics that you likely currently believe but you are just NOT currently stating.
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December 27, 2022, 01:00:32 AM

[edited out]
How the fuck do you write so much ?

I don't know.  It just seems to happen to happen.



Not complaining as I post like a mofo but not with the precise writing that you try to do.

Fair enough.

I tend  to write like James Joyce just let it rip.

Stream of consciousness style.

Will have to keep that in mind for the next time that I am working towards critiquing something in your direction... .and maybe say:  "fuck that James Joyce bullshit" or whatever might be the critique.

I have a USA based theory of why the gov does these games with interest.

Surely you should be able to appreciate that we go beyond the USA in this thread and in this forum - even though we are talking about the USD as the other side of the trading pair listed in OP.

I base it on the Long Island railroad retirement system.

see below:

My step dad is 90 years old.
He worked for the Long Island Railroad from the age of 22  to 52

he has been in retirement for 38 years. 8 years longer than he worked.

his son my stepbrother is 60
he got a job in 1984 or 1985 with the long Island railroad he was 22 or 23.

He retired at 55 he is on pension for 7 years.

his son is 25 he is working at the Long Island railroad for 3 years.

The model above does not work cannot work if every family in the USA was setup the way they are it all falls apart.

Why would you want to lock yourself into some model that has been undergoing all kind of changes over several generations, and even the design of work evolved within previous work/employee/retirement plan systems.

Some of those kinds of guaranteed pension jobs still exist - but they are so fucking rare that it makes little sense to base your thinking on those kinds of systems, or even proclamations that certain kinds of jobs are disappearing and blah blah blah. 

There are a lot of kinds of industries that exist, and there are various kinds of changes in world dynamics too - in terms of how WWI and WWII had played out that put the USA into a kind of advantaged position that is undergoing changes, and sure there might be some possibilities that the USD might be able to hang onto dominance in one or two more 12 year cycles?  and even the cycles are changing and the dynamics from within trying to keep all of the balls in the air could come crashing down... or maybe not any time soon.. but still consider ways to be prepared for various kinds of balls-crashing-down scenarios.

So the feds play pendulum with war ,interest rates ,unemployment . In an effort to keep it all from imploding.

Now I would argue it has not fully imploded since 1929-1939 which they fixed with WWII.

I am hoping they avoid the next full implosion better than they did back then.

We will have a much better idea by 2024 Nov just how fucked the USA will be.

In a general way, I cannot disagree with any of that.. except that I still believe that when we get into specifics and your various ways of trying to prognosticate short term matters
 - especially how it pertains to my lil precious, you come to all kinds of weird and inaccurate conclusions, and still wondering why the fuck does any presidential election matter as much as you are suggestion of how much importance you seem to be putting within a stupid-ass timeline involving USA presidential politics? Maybe you should flesh out your hypothesis a bit - even though it is likely to just lead to more nonsense and even contribute towards my throwing up my Christmas meal from yesterday because you will be trying to outline specifics that you likely currently believe but you are just NOT currently stating.

The Long Island railroad model is only an illustration of the issue.

how bout this.

  USA go to school in 1975 lots of good cheap colleges get out at 21-22 zero debt get a job blank blank blank..

USA go to school in 1996 not as many good cheap colleges get out at 23-24 as you need a masters to compete with the ones that graduated in 1975 and you have a small loan maybe 25k


USA go to school in 2017 almost any college cost at least 60k more like 200k get out at 23-24 you better have a masters to compete with the ones that graduated in 1975 and 1996 and you have a larger loan over 100k.


that is the education twist on the Long Island Railroad example I gave.


As to why I use USA simple USA is still the fiat standard (how long does it have?)

and USA so far was able to heavily fuck the world market by raising % rates for the dollar.

Which is many countries are trying to do BTC and which is why the dems let SBF shit all over (JJG you will love this) BTC using FTX and all the shitcoins (other than LTC + Doge).

Does this clarify it a bit more.


Please remember it is always or almost always just written in stream of consciousness.

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December 27, 2022, 01:10:23 AM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1), Negotiation (1)

Just received below SMS... only if it was BTC...


It's a trap!!!

To me, it looks like you are richie.    Wink

<snip>..sorry it was becoming too long to quote
[edited out]
In addition: my IRAs and bitcoin would, hopefully, provide the bulk of the future cash flows.

Sure there is going to be some variance in the timeline on a lot of these matters, and for sure, the longer that any of us had contributed into a system, then we might have become reliant upon being able to get some income stream from various work-related retirement systems that we had invested into.

Attacks on the pension systems had surely gone into higher modes since the 80s, and yes it seems that there was borrowing against and mal-investment in regards to social security systems too - since those systems should have been self-sustaining, except that the government was allowed to borrow against that particular system - and yeah of course other health and welfare benefits have been juggled in a variety of ways too... to contribute towards difficulties in keeping them solvent.  

So, yes some of those systems have decent chances of imploding..

Of course, many of us in bitcoin have considered that bitcoin is a way to supplement or to replace some of the other directions that we might have otherwise been able to receive cashflow after we are no longer ready, willing and/or able to work.

Some of us may have been contributing more heavily into bitcoin, and it may have not even been for reasons of believing that we were going to need bitcoin to supplement our status quo cashflow areas, but then maybe in more recent times, including since March 2020, it has become more apparent (to some folks) that various aspects of status quo and traditional systems are imploding faster and more severely than we thought to be likely or possible.

I am not sure if 20 BTC is going to be enough to supplement the cashflow of any person, even though it seems that something like 100 BTC right now would be enough - yet of course, devil is in the details in regards to how much we need and when we need it..

I guess when I mentioned 100 BTC being enough, it is building on Phillipma's assertion from a month ago or so that 100BTC would not be enough for a 50-year old right now, and saying dumb shit about that 50-year old needing to sell some of his BTC blah blah blah.. which just seemed bonkers to me... actually to me it seems that around 82 BTC would be more than enough to be in entry-level fuck you status as long as you are able to wait until the BTC price returns above $24.4k - assuming that at some point in the coming 3-12 months or so that BTC prices will return above the 200-week moving average that is currently at $24.4k.

Anyway, of course, money management.. and of course no guarantees.. and surely by the time we start to get into our 50s or later, then it would seem that many of us shoudl have already created and maintained some investment portfolio that goes beyond merely having BTC and perhaps taking our other income sources, whether social security, pension, 401ks and/or other sources like that with a grain of salt... but still the various uncertain sources of income likely have greater than zero present value.. unless you really are assigning high values to Armagaeddon scenarios.
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