I don't know.  It just seems to happen to happen.




Fair enough.


Will have to keep that in mind for the next time that I am working towards critiquing something in your direction... .and maybe say:  "fuck that James Joyce bullshit" or whatever might be the critique.


Surely you should be able to appreciate that we go beyond the USA in this thread and in this forum - even though we are talking about the USD as the other side of the trading pair listed in OP.


Why would you want to lock yourself into some model that has been undergoing all kind of changes over several generations, and even the design of work evolved within previous work/employee/retirement plan systems.

Some of those kinds of guaranteed pension jobs still exist - but they are so fucking rare that it makes little sense to base your thinking on those kinds of systems, or even proclamations that certain kinds of jobs are disappearing and blah blah blah. 

There are a lot of kinds of industries that exist, and there are various kinds of changes in world dynamics too - in terms of how WWI and WWII had played out that put the USA into a kind of advantaged position that is undergoing changes, and sure there might be some possibilities that the USD might be able to hang onto dominance in one or two more 12 year cycles?  and even the cycles are changing and the dynamics from within trying to keep all of the balls in the air could come crashing down... or maybe not any time soon.. but still consider ways to be prepared for various kinds of balls-crashing-down scenarios.


In a general way, I cannot disagree with any of that.. except that I still believe that when we get into specifics and your various ways of trying to prognosticate short term matters
 - especially how it pertains to my lil precious, you come to all kinds of weird and inaccurate conclusions, and still wondering why the fuck does any presidential election matter as much as you are suggestion of how much importance you seem to be putting within a stupid-ass timeline involving USA presidential politics? Maybe you should flesh out your hypothesis a bit - even though it is likely to just lead to more nonsense and even contribute towards my throwing up my Christmas meal from yesterday because you will be trying to outline specifics that you likely currently believe but you are just NOT currently stating.

Fuck shitcoins.  Do not waste your time with that crap.

If you happen to have $3k, then maybe you have a cashflow too? 

You could buy $1k in bitcoin right away.  Put another $1k into buying on dip and the final $1k into a DCA schedule over the next several months and add your cashflow into that too.

Of course, there are no guarantees, but maybe if you are persistent, you might be able in get up to 1 BTC in the next 10 to 20 years, and if you do not get up to 1 BTC, then get up to whatever you can, and get the fuck out of the various shitcoins, whether it is PYR (Whatever the fuck that is?) or any other shitcoin. 

Focus.


Focus ur lil selfie.

Maybe if you get up to 0.3 BTC in 10 or 20 years or maybe if you get up to 0.5 BTC or maybe some other amount that is not quite a whole bitcoin that will be enough in order to provide you with more options than fucking around with shitcoins is likely to bring you (or anyone else)?  No guarantees, of course. 

But you never know, if you focus on bitcoin accumulation, instead of getting distracted into snake oil, smoke and mirror pump and dump nonsense, then maybe you'll have a chance to make it.. otherwise most likely You NGMI.

 

Yes.. take a dumb idea and make it even dumber by employing a "regular trading practice," and losing even more.  That's what degenerate gamblers do.. they take one dumb thing, and then they keep adding dumb things.. and at some point maybe they will get lucky, but the odds become increasingly against any of us the more layers of gambling we add on.

Shitcoiners love to do those kinds of things.. and the vast majority lose money.. so bringing that to bitcoin does not make it better merely because it is on bitcoin or related to bitcoin.

Don't get me wrong.  I am not opposed to trading or even playing swings but it is way better to have calculated and incremental strategies that largely emphasize bitcoin accumulation and holding that does not count on selling in order to accumulate.. but instead largely skewed in favor of buying, accumulating and DCA'ing-related practices.


If you are considering bitcoin as a long term investment rather than some kind of pump and dump, then two years is likely too short of a timespan, and more likely you should be considering 4-10 years or longer, and some form of ongoing DCA rather than merely lump sum investing and/or buying on dip... even though lump sum investing and buying on dip can also be good practices to supplement DCA buying.

No matter what there are no guarantees either.. so each of us should be attempting to account for the fact that there are no guarantees in bitcoin, even though it seems to have been, to be and to continue to be amongst the best (if not the best) of places in which we can allocate value for the longer term of 4-10 years or longer.


I personally don't have any problem with a loan and to take chances that front-loading the investment might pay off better than buying incrementally.  Each of us is free to exercise those kinds of potentially reasonable gambles - even with long term investment money.

I think that the area in which OP went wrong was that it appears that he was calculating that the BTC price will go up during the next two years, and he seems to calculate that into his plan as if it were guaranteed, and even if the odds might be greater than 50% that the BTC price will go up in the next two years, that seems to be allowing for too many loose ends in regards to how to play a 8% to 10% per year interest rate that guarantees a certain level that he has to cover in the loan just to pay the servicing of it and how much the loan is costing him.  He also seems to NOT have other funding sources, such as a cashflow and/or other monies to assure that he does not have to sell his bitcoin.. so it is weird that his plan almost guarantees that he "has to" sell some of his bitcoin, even if the BTC price goes up within his anticipated 2x to 5x range.... and I suppose nothing wrong with servicing the loan by selling some BTC if the BTC has gone up 2x to 5X, that would end up being more profitable than if he had not taken out the loan.. but it still seems like an unreasonable gamble if all of the possible outcomes are considered rather than just assigning value to various upside scenarios while either failing/refusing to account for downside possibilities or giving really high discount calculations to the possible downside scenarios.. like assigning the downside values lower levels of probability than they actually deserve.

What happens if the parents of SBF also become implicated more than they are already implicated on the level that we have already been hearing in public regarding their having had received properties and funding in connection with FTX/Alameda/SBF... and also that they might have been involved in some of the soliciting of endorsements, referring attorneys and maybe even going over some of the legal paperwork involved in structuring the company and various legal avoidance (aka fraud) strategies.

If they are all implicated.. at least SBF and his parents, then his parents would be worthy of jail time, too. and they might all figure out a plan in which they all avoid jail time... Really, if justice is going to be served, there may well be justice involved in setting up those fraud shell companies and the several practices of siphoning money off that we are finding out about.. and yeah, maybe his parents were not really involve and that shit is made up... but many folks consider that there may well have been some family involvements of SBF and also Caroline.. and I have not really heard too much about some of the possible nefarious nepotistic behaviors of Wang, so far...seems like the vast majority of profits were flowing through Sam.. and that some of the other were receiving pittances of pay-offs in comparison to Sam.. but still some of those connections and that information is still being fleshed out and allegations in complaints are left general and vague on purpose - and the actual evidence - to the extent that any of it might come publicly available can start to inform connections that may still be trying to be covered up. and that some folks do not want some of the connections to be made publicly.. because prosecutors might also be forced into directions that they do not want to go, either.

I think others, such as Lucius, had suggested some kind of moderate BTC holding strategy in the territory of 10% to 20%, which is quite valid.    Yet, of course, there is likely devil within your details since many times it is important to consider your total individual circumstances in order to figure out some possible balance with with your bitcoin holdings and/or investing that is sufficiently aggressive without devolving into leveraging and/or gambling practices.

You are the person in the best position to figure out such details in regards to what kind of bitcoin holding/allocation is sufficiently aggressive without devolving into too much aggressiveness. 

Another aspect of bitcoin investing is that it has a sufficient amount of volatility and risk and it is an asymmetric bet that is quite lopsided to the upside so that any of us should be able to justify employing a relatively modest investment/allocation approach into bitcoin and still end up profiting stupendously from merely employing such relatively modest investment approach.  Of course, when we look back historically, sometimes we might be able to identify times in which we should have been more aggressive or maybe that we should have been less aggressive - yet in the end it is very difficult to figure out exactly when those times should have been..

so in that sense, I tend to gravitate towards recommending that beginner allocators into bitcoin figure out how much of an investment portfolio that they prefer to have within a 1% to 25% range, within their own considerations, and then once they establish their target then they can employ various means of DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing to reach their allocation target and then they can figure out more about their own specific circumstances while they are building and working towards reaching their bitcoin investment/allocation level targets.

For sure, in the past 6 months or longer we have been witnessing a lot of folks who over did their investments into bitcoin, leveraged, bet on bitcoin companies and largely were maybe even leveraging upon the bitcoin price either going up or staying flat and expecting that the BTC price would not go below certain levels which as we know, after the fact, it ended up going below various price points that were not expected to be broken.  So now many of us have to reassess and regroup, and hope that we were not one of them who was gambling too biggedly on the price going up, and surely some of those folks were distracted by shitcoins and/or putting their money with pathological liars, such as SBF/FTX/Alameda, Terra Luna/Do Kwon or even not realizing (sometimes they even did know it) that entities in which they had invested might have been gambling with their money Celsius, Voyager, Blockfi, Genesis, and quite a few others too.

The ponzi scheme of ethereum (and various entities related to that nonsense) might crash at some point in the near future, yet for now, that ponzi scheme is continuing to go and it may be able to survive through this cycle.. perhaps?  perhaps?.. so in that sense, having some bitcoin focused and moderate ongoing bitcoin accumulation practices likely remains a good thing as long as you are attempting to employ strategies, tactics and practices to mitigate your downside risks - including trying to hold most of your bitcoin in private wallets that you control, even if with your business, you may well want (or need) to keep up some abilities to exchange some of your bitcoin on a regular basis, and also you may want to consider ways that you are holding your bitcoin (and if you are holding dollars or dollar pegged coins or even your local currency) that are safe, but not in such a way that you are getting eaten up by having to exchange them a lot and then ending up paying more and more fees (and taking other risks) because you are exchanging more than they need to be exchanged as long as you are able to consider through your whole allocations in such a way that lessens the number of times that you are exchanging and paying fees.. and someone had mentioned that you might want to try to supplement with lightning network too.. maybe get a BlueWallet or something like that, but you still do not want to keep too much value on the lightning network aspect and to be careful with some of your needs to keep backups too.

When we describe arguments that people make, we usually tend to describe facts, logic and conclusions. So you can have facts and logic back up your conclusions, or you can choose to describe your conclusions, but don't connect that to facts and/or to logic.

There are differences in the various kinds of arguments that are made, and not all arguments are equal merely because you make them.


Yes, time will tell if your conclusions are correct, and I would imagine if your conclusions are based on facts and logic then they have higher chances of being correct, and in the case of predictions, we are referring to something that has not yet happened, so usually the logic portion will describe various ways in which some outcomes might be more likely (probable) than other outcomes.   The mere fact that a prediction was right or wrong does not necessarily mean that it had good or bad logic and facts.

Of course, I had criticized your earlier arguments (and conclusions) to be lacking in their factual and logical backings, and it is your choice to continue to make them or to fix them, and instead of attempting to buttress your earlier assertions with facts and/or logic, you continue to proclaim that facts and logic do not matter or suggest that your arguments that lack facts and logic are equally sound as if they were to have facts and logic... and yes you might still end up being correct, even if it seems that you have made relatively weaker arguments than you could have done if you had put a wee bit more efforts into supporting such arguments.

Ouch.. that hurts to read.  I kind of figured there were more painful details, and you were likely correct to present a more abbreviated version in your opening post getting into the topic.

People can function and appear somewhat "normal" if their left ventricle ejection fractions are between 25% and 35%.. even though that is quite low and they may well have issues with heart stability too, and I believe that eligibility for a defibrillator implantation is usually something like low 30% and below but there could be some other aggravating factors to justify a defibrillator even if the ejection is higher than 30%.. that would be not merely looking at LVEF, and of course the higher the left ventricle ejection fraction the more likely a person is able to appear "normal," even if s/he might have inabilities to exert or to sustain exertion. 

Surely with the left ventricle ejection fraction there can be some measurement variability too, so sometimes the doctor might look at a few different tests that measure it and then to average out the measurements or to assert that the methodology of one measurement was likely more accurate than another one or series of measurements.. so yes, maybe you did actually have material and concrete improvement that was confirmed and NOT merely measurement variability or a fluke, but then like you suggest and found out, the recovery that you were having was not sustainable… and sometimes there could be other things going on such as the implantation of the valve is not really working very well and there might not really be any ability to implant another valve.. or maybe you cannot be sure at what point your heart became irreversibly damaged…. So for example all could have been going well and recovering.. but then your valve was not working properly and at some point you were experiencing further irreversible heart death (ischemia and/or scaring) without even knowing it.. and really difficult for anyone to know sometimes if it is not caught right away..    There are some theories that the heart tissue cannot really recover if it has not gotten adequate oxygen/blood flow for 12 hours or more, but even those kinds of theories are incomplete because there could be some heart tissues that are getting some blood circulation and other tissues that are completely not getting any blood circulation. .so there could still be some recoverability of some heart tissue.. but even that is not easy to measure.. even with a shitload of tests.

I would not be surprised if the medical folks might have been having some troubles figuring out why your recovery was not sustaining and why your ejection fraction had gone up so much and then fallen again so quickly back down to really a deadly status.. sub 20%...pretty much like it was when you were in your earlier bad situation in late 2021.. . which really, as you know, having those kinds of lack of blood flow to your body likely makes it difficult to do anything without losing energy…or even some basic things like having feelings (or warmth) in your extremities… and probably more susceptible to infections too because the blood and the oxygen is not really getting around very well.  so yes thanks for the posts. and even taking time to read and to type.. because sometimes those kinds of activities can wear on any of us, and even talking, or trying to yell might cause chestpain and other symptoms if you get stressed out about any of these kinds of matters....  though surely you are taking some medications that likely help you with some of these matters, but there is nothing as effective as having actually functioning natural organs because the various drug inducements have a lot of limitations, too… and side effects as you likely experience.

You surely have pointed out that some of the heart related and functional tests that you received seem redundant and then also there may be a lot of time for doctors trying to figure out and to confirm various specifics of your condition or what is causing it.. or could be causing it.. or appear to be causing it (even though surely they seemed to have had figured out a lot of the matters by now and even ruled out other explanations), and even like you mentioned, your insurance company seemed to have needed (or wanted) (and sometimes burdensome too) their own verification to make sure that test-related or expert opinion errors were not being relied upon in order to confirm your diagnosis or to confirm your prognosis for recovery, too.

For sure, I don't really know some of the details that you talk about in relation to your specific details because many times there are going to be individual variations in terms of which vessels are affected or what type of equipment is used and where is the defibrillator implanted (and likely pacemaker function too).  Also, I am not even claiming to be any kind of expert, but just have some specific knowledge of some of the areas in which you had been describing.

I would think with your LVEF so low, you will likely feel better when you have a heart pump (or ventricular assist or whatever variation you end up receiving) and from my understanding, those do not really tend to be very long-term kinds of solutions because of infection potentials and body rejections and various sensitivities.. but surely it may well help you to feel way better during the interim while waiting for a compatible heart (and some folks have more possibilities for compatibility with actual new hearts (or should we say used hearts?) than others based on blood typing and some other compatibility considerations).. even though probably a kind of pain in the ass to have one surgery after another in order to try to make sure that you are ready or that you are able to function or that you are not suffering additional damage while waiting yet I understand that when you get into a state in which you don't have a choice because you can hardly move without getting symptoms, then likely you welcome those various interventions such as having the temporary heart pump.. because it might be one of the better and less risky options given your particular situation.   

Regarding the long-lived forum thread (or blog) that I had suggested, that was my dorky way of trying to hope that you are able to make it through your heart transplant and then have enough of a recovery (and even excess energy) to be able to just end up being able to spend time on seemingly silly things.. for another 50-ish years... it is likely that the last year you spent way more time with tests and doctors, and sure some of it can be interesting, but it may well not be a preferred way of spending time…. even though it is surely the most pressing of issues at the time.. so  that surely make sense, and we surely have to do what we have to do when certain vital organs fail or are underperforming... and sometimes even if we are doing something that we do not prefer, we figure out some way to make the best of out what seems to be a less than preferable situation. 

No need to feel that you need to respond to me if I may have typed too much, again.

Even though there seem to be pretty obvious partisan aspects to this matter, I think that we get distracted if we accept stupid-ass political frameworks in the ways that we get mad about the various appearances of injustices and improprieties in this case so far.

Sure, he probably should not have been released.

Sure there are probably some political players whose heads might need to roll.

Fuck the partisanship framing.

Let's try to focus..


Focus ur lil selfie. 


Yes, one of the charges, already has the breaking of campaign contribution laws already contained therein, and yes, we need to keep digging regarding the various connections.. whether right, left center or whatever, that money needs to get back to clients to make them whole on a broad level.. . and also we need to make sure that we continue to talk about this in terms of the various frauds, cover-ups, influence peddling, potential attacks on bitcoin in terms of not holding bitcoin on behalf of clients or to make sure that they had enough to cover clients, and even bullshit distractions trying to blame CZ and Binance for frauds that SBF, FTX, Alameda and the various principle agents had committed and connections that still are not clear.. yes.. let's look.. but don't get deflected and distracted into stupid, superficial and emotionally-ladened framings.

KEEP your cool FOLKS!!!!!!!!


In other words:























Calm DOWN !!!!!!!!




and happy holidays, too.



Oh my....


Almost not feeling like having a strong stomach when looking at that... but at least it doesn't seem to be partisan... perhaps? 

Isn't everything vulnerable to partisanship these days?


I sent you a merit even though I disagree with several of your points... and several seem to be making confusing connections.. even though weaved in some decently valid points too.. so you probably believe that gobble-dee-gook ...

and don't even get me wrong.. there are people who believe even worse gobbledy gook than you, so it can be helpful that you outline it.


Regarding the one above highlighted point, I understand that you are saying that money printing ends up giving money towards more normies being able to buy I savings bonds, and sure that is factually true... but it is not really a very good explanation in regards to what is going on with I savings bonds.. so yeah, the US government is engaging in its own internal contradictions by creating the most stringent of monetary policies to cause the dollar to be the strongest of the currencies and for value to be attracted to the dollar... so in that sense there has developed a way to get away with this because the USD is the strongest of the fiats... and the policies of stringent policies will cause money to gravitate towards to the dollar... but the printing of money is the opposite and undermines the dollar.. but the printing of the money is more subtle and no one seems to be able to measure it very easily.  .. but the printing of the money is not exactly directly supporting the buying of the Ibonds.. because the IBonds end up getting supported by having the highest nominal interest rates (and may well not have positive real rates.. but the least bad fiat)... so I would suggest that when the dollar gets so fucked up that the printing ends up having to buy the Ibonds directly rather than attracting suckers like you to buy them, then we are really fucked when the situation gets that circular... which may happen a couple more cycles down the road.

I don't claim to be any genius.. but just wanted to say that your way of framing the matter just comes off as weird, even though it is not completely factually inaccurate, but not really that great of a way of describing matters in order to help to appreciate the kind of desperation going on.. that at the same time may well allow for the kicking of the can down the road for one, two or maybe even three cycles.. and surely, we cannot even know for sure if the whole bunch of bullshit might come crashing down more quickly than expected either.. and whether the crash is slow or it takes 30-50 years, it remains good to keep building bitcoin allocations.. and the amount of bitcoin allocation is going to vary from person to person in regards to his/her personal circumstances.. and sure institutions and governments are coming more into bitcoin too.. so great that individuals have been able to front run institutions and governments to the extent that individuals do not overly get caught up in bullshit narratives that fail and refuse to adequately account for bitcoin's role in this..

Actually one of the better sources of information regarding points that I am trying to lamely make is Jeff Booth.. price of tomorrow and various other talks (podcasts) that he participates in that address these kinds of topics in regards to what is going on with money and how these matters are playing out.

Thanks and Merry Christmas to you too.

Of course, the WO is a product of those participating.. so there are ups and downs along the way...and for sure many of us (or would it be all of us?) have our various faults, too..   


There seems to be a kind of window period in terms of the seasons greetings.. and surely some folks start to get into the spirit of Christmas right around Thanksgiving.. but even the Happy New Years greetings might roll over into the Chinese New Year.. ... and maybe in the northern hemisphere there is a need for these kinds of over-the-top attempts at cheeriness.. otherwise we might become overly depressed.. lack of natural light and freezing our asses off...

Oh?  And speaking of bitcoin.. it can be kind of stressful.. Russia seems to be expanding permission to use bitcoin.. but Jesus fucking Christ (appropriate Christmas expression), they are opening bitcoin up for international transactions but not for normies within the country.  What a weird kind of balancing (or is it transition?), yet all and all my lil precious will quite likely make it through these weird times - including becoming stronger and stronger.. even though it is expanded at the same time that it is battled against.


It seems to me that we need to be careful when we make really strong assertions in regards to what BTC is going to do, and betting is a way to clarify if we are standing behind our words.. and it does not need to be for a very large amount in order to make the point.. .. even 50k satoshis could be a reasonable bet (even though maybe a bit more difficult on an administrative level when the amounts are so small... unless transactions were sent by lightning).. and even if we are in BTC accumulation phases of our BTC journey, it seems relatively easy to spend and replace the potentially smaller bet amounts. 

I am not sure that we would need escrow for the relatively smaller bet amounts, even though I tend to be less trusting in that regard, and I believe that some members I do consider that escrow would be required.... even though sometimes even the previously thought to be questionable members have ended up coming through with honoring their bets.. once the member had actually committed to the bet terms... so there is that.. .. the most difficult aspect seems to be clarifying the terms.. and clarifying if members really meant what they said or they were just making some statement of certainty but not really ready, willing or able to stand behind such seemingly strongly assertive statement(s).

I wasn't really looking for you, but just thinking in retrospect that you would have just stood out (your frog hat, for example).

I have my doubts about your being there.. since I probably would have notice you while I was there.  #justsaying

 

In the past several days, I had been considering whether to respond, and if so how?  Or even how much to say about my own personal experiences in weighing related questions.. but of course, each of us have our own particulars that we might not want to say too much, yet I still consider that your story helps in the sense that many of us have got to know you in various ways over the years, and surely some members have had more interactions with you than others.  My path with you has not crossed too often….. yet I can still relate to a variety of the aspects of your situation..  

Surely I feel bad for your situation Yahoo in terms of the relatively early age in which you started to suffer from symptoms (such as close to 40), and then already going through procedures that did not fix the then condition… and then the then condition had gotten worse and worse, as you mentioned.

These kinds of questions that you raise are not easy for any of us in regards to how much we should attempt to account for the advice of experts in regards to aspects of our health and our energies, and they surely do not always lead us down the right path or necessarily present information in a way that helps us to consider the matters in front of us… and surely some of the information in regards to the diagnosis, the symptoms, what to do or even what tests to run or whether intervention might be necessary may well be unknown by the various health professionals too – absent further tests – and then surely complications with medical insurance coverage and/or co-pays is present for a lot of folks too… at least those folks who have potential access to decent medical care.

Many times we also might rightly or wrongly conclude that our body is going to heal itself, and we may also have feelings of invincibility – though when we suffer from a few health issues, we sometimes will learn more regarding limitations to both self-healing and in regards to invincibility – and also various aspects in realizing our mortality may well also sink in only after finding out about some severe condition that we might have that we had not previously considered.

Sometimes we also might not know what we don’t know.. which seems to also be part of your repetitive point in regards to your suggestion to get checked out.. and maybe even diving further into investigations that might be necessary, sometimes for some conditions.

Surely there are other ailments besides ones associated with the heart, yet the heart has some very special characteristics (and limitations) in terms of how well that it may be able to heal itself.. and also that in can start to develop in a direction that attempts to compensate for its limitations (especially if it had been injured) and then ends up leading to its own weaknesses including growing too large in one direction, thinning of the walls, blockage of blood flow that contributes to possible irreversible ischemia (tissue death), scarring, palpitations and perhaps other related difficult to fix matters.  

At the same time, if the ejection fraction on the left ventricle (which pumps blood to the whole body) is not staying above a certain amount (such as 30%, which is still lower than normal) then there will be shortness of breath and difficulties of the blood to circulate around the body…and so in some sense, quality of life already is going down once the ejection fraction gets to those kinds of low levels because of inability to exert yourself, easily tired, shortness of breath and even chest pain and tightness, so it becomes more and  more difficult to keep up muscle mass too (and stamina) which is also more difficult to keep up muscle mass as any of us gets older. The older we get, the more difficult it is to build and to maintain muscle and strength and even to burn calories efficiently.

So normal ejection fraction is between about 50% and 75%, and frequently those eligible for heart transplants would be unable to keep their left ventricle ejection fraction above the lower 20% range, and sure of course, there may well be some other criteria for heart transplant eligibility besides just looking at ejection fraction.. such as just being able to see that a heart is not really stable or recovering….. so getting on the heart transplant list is a pretty BIG deal, and getting into such a state that the Doctor’s put you in a kind of “expedited status” also tells a lot about the severity in which they consider your current heart to NOT be very much able to help you with even bare basic exertions, but any of us should be able to imagine that the lower the ejection fraction, then the more likely that shortness of breath, exhaustion and even other symptom kick in at even lower levels of exertion.. merely going for a walk, or eating some food, and then we may well frequently have seen folks with lower levels of ejection fraction needing to lug around an oxygen tank or even having to wear a defibrillator to shock them in case their heart goes into irregular rhythms… and there are heart pumps too.. but surely seems scary to have some of those artificial mechanisms implanted – and bodies will frequently react towards having internal devices implanted, too.

Sure the punchline advice may well be to attempt to inform ourselves with more knowledge about our conditions and if there might be some things that we need to know in order to make more informed decisions in regards to our health and conditions that we might have or that we might develop and do not engage in conduct that ends up leading to damage that might be irreversible, but I still have some difficulties “kicking ourselves” too much in regards to “ I should have done X, Y and/or Z.”  

But the punchline is still correct in terms of attempting to learn about our condition, and maybe sometimes needing to get tests and perhaps second opinions and also attempting to interact with the doctor more, and sometimes it is not easy to interact with the doctor because we ONLY have so much time to interact during an appointment so we should attempt to prepare ourselves prior to our doctors appointment and maybe researching so that we are able to interact, even if we might not feel that we have a lot of energy, and if we do not prepare ourselves with decent questions, they may not be able to spend time talking with us, or know where to possibly refer us or what tests to run.

….and yeah if we do not follow-up with Doctor’s appointments after we learn about a condition that we have, then we are likely NOT interacting sufficiently enough about our own condition or our own health.. so there is some of that ignoring of the problem(s) that could be happen with anyone including damage and/or irreversible damage, which surely I appreciate that you (Yahoo) had identified that as one of the areas in which you feel that you “could have done better.”  .. even though I still try to consider that it is important to NOT kick ourselves too much about these kinds of bygones, what ifs or even blaming ourselves.... and each of us should attempt to be informed about any conditions that we have when we go to the doctor, and maybe if we are having some difficulties advocating for ourselves and asking questions and interacting with our doctors, we might need to ask that someone who we feel that we can trust attends appointments with us during our doctor’s appointments to help to advocate for us and/or to make sure that we are sufficiently advocating for ourselves, and no matter what none of these kinds of balances are easy for anyone.

I know that I am blabbering on somewhat, and surely you realized a certain level of risk that you might get some responses that may or may not cause comfort.. .and surely not even easy to figure out how much to say.. beyond even what other people have said…

I think that the better of scenarios might be that you are able to get a heart transplant within the expected time-frame in January or maybe February at the latest, and then within a few weeks, you able to start a blog or a forum thread on the bitcoiner with a new heart topic.. that may well be showing progress and recovery.  

So maybe the thread might be: “What’s it like to be a bitcoiner with a new heart?”… and then such a topic (and subject matter, even though usually overly personal) will have become fair game, no?  

Once you started this thread, the cat is out of the bag, no?  

So from here on out, many of us will likely be hoping and perhaps even expecting to be able to participate in trolling you within a dedicated thread on such bitcoin and heart topic… no pressure of course, but it would likely be a good hope to then have the "bitcoiner with a new heart" thread last for many, many years..

maybe until 2072?  A 50-year long thread… I will hope. .

Although I don’t expect to be around that long…. . but you know how so many of us tend to have beliefs that we are going to live forever, too…

We could pray.. and then receive such insight deep in our feelings from the future predictor wannabe.

We can have him/her/it/they tell us the price of bitcoin for each quarter (maybe on a specific date for each quarter) for the next 2-3 years, and that might make us (or at least help us to become MOAR) richie... like a get-rich-quick scenario, but for reals this time..

I was in Houston for about 2 weeks last March.  I don't recall seeing you.  


That's pretty optimistic of you to assign so much likelihood to the 2019 scenario.

 

Edit: P. S.  
What I am thinking is that kind of a 2019 price move is not very easy to repeat.. especially in current market conditions.. .

in late 2018 early 2019.. we had nearly 5 months of down and then flat before we got our 3.5x price rise from about $4.2k to $13,880 in about 3 months.. starting on April 1.

Yeah, sure you have mentioned before that even something like a 2x or a 2.5x price rise right now in a similar kind of a time-frame might be close enough in order to be comparable, and I cannot really disagree with you in terms of possible comparability.. but still if we got a 2x or a 2.5x from around here in 3 months that would be around $34k to $50k.. and that just seems so bullish and just so unlikely at the moment.. yet the 2019 scenario did turn out to be quite bullish and did seem to be so unlikely too at that time.. .. so there's that angle, too.. .

I don't disagree with any of your points, yet largely DCA strategies should not be getting into trying to figure out where the BTC price is. and like you said should largely be employed based on working on establishing a position.. and surely once you establish your position, then you can rethink what you are doing, if you want to change your DCA variables or if you want to employ some other strategies.

Furthermore, your suggesting that there could be more down from here seems to be getting into ideas that attempt to combine buying on dip with DCA, and surely I have nothing against buying on dips... especially since this thread actually had been aiming to suggest that buying on dips is better than DCA.. which I don't exactly agree with that premise.. but still part of the push of this thread is to highlight attempts to buy on the dip and to de-emphasize the blindness of a DCA approach... .. and ultimately each person does need to consider the extent to which s/he wants to employ either technique or to attempt to combine them.. as it seems that many participants here strive to combine the strategies but do not necessarily clarify that they might be talking about buying on the dip rather than DCA when they are describing where the BTC price came from with possibly an objective to proclaim where the BTC price is at and to predict where the BTC price might go from here.

He's making / keeping a list and checking it twice........, etc. etc. etc....

....that red-suited lil fatty....   





Just like fillippone already said..

I don't believe the Kimichi arbitrage story.  The guy's a phony.. even though there's always some truth in any story.


Believe what you like.


That's a non sequitur... or maybe a deflection?


Someone died and put you in charge of my "interaction" choices?

Yes, when considering a loan, it will be a good thing to try to figure out what objectives that you are striving to achieve, and frequently, there is not necessarily going to be payoff in the short-term, unless you can get in and out of it with prices moving in your direction... and what are the odds of that?  usually not that great, and easier to see in retrospect that the BTC price will just move in the direction that you wished it to go.

Even your outline of numbers above coolcoinz, we can see that if there might be a desire to accumulate 1 BTC, then we likely need to acquire more than 1 BTC to merely be able to maintain the 1 BTC, otherwise you are just fooling yourself to proclaim that you have 1 BTC that you have already calculated that you have to use some of it to service the loan that you undertook.   On the other hand, if you already know that you have a cashflow to be able to service the loan with the proceeds of other income and then if there might be a balloon payment that is due at the end of the two year period (if the loan happens to be for 2 years), then if you know that you would be able to pay the balloon payment with other money that you know that you have coming in, then the loan had served the purpose of merely frontloading known future income.

Here, OP is not frontloading known future income, but instead unambiguously states that he expects to pay off the loan with proceeds of bitcoin that has gone up in value in a range of 2x to 5x within two years... which is not impossible - but still is a gamble because that is ONLY one of many possible future outcomes that might not even have greater than 50/50 chances of happening - even though OP seemed to have been assigning fairly high probabilities to such 2x to 5x BTC price appreciations within two years of his loan.


Yes.  This is another crazy idea to get a loan in order to rise to the level in which you have 1 whole BTC and therefore you have a great feeling because you have achieved 1 BTC, but  how can that feeling be anything except for self-delusion (based on an illusion) because you do not really own the 1 BTC - especially when the BTC is encumbered.  Sure even in June/July of this year, we could not have known if the BTC price was going to be going up or down, and surely there were some folks who could have somewhat reasonably speculated that the bottom may well have had been in, but there also could have been ways to create feelings that were more aligned with reality.. and sure maybe it could be argued that I am being too rough on OP retrospectively since the BTC price has gone down.. but maybe it is not even real that any reasonable person should really be able to muster up such artificial feeling of elation because he has gotten to the status of 1 BTC (that is supported by some of his own money but even a majority of the financing coming from a couple of loans).


Actually, a couple of points that you made are interesting.  

1st of all, the terms of the loans are important, and if there is about a 9% per year interest rate, and if it is allowed to make "interest ONLY" payments through the two year period of the loan, then the interest payment would be about $105 per month (and about $2,520 for the whole 24 month period), and then result in a balloon payment of $14k at the end of June 2024... so yeah if OP sticks with the loan for the full two year term, then at minimum BTC would have to go up to about $23,600 just to cover the servicing costs of the loan for that two year period... so any profits would not actually come to OP until after BTC would be over $23,600.

Regarding your point about how much OP could afford to lose, he does not have to be making anywhere near $20k a month in order to be able to afford to lose $20k, but of course, he does need to be able to cover the cost of the loan and even to cover the principle if the BTC price were to go down rather than UP.  No matter what if he follows through with the whole term of the loans, he is going to be owing $2,520 in interest, but yeah, at the end of June 2024, he is also going to owe back the principle too... which is $14k.  So if we assume that OP is able to service the loans at $105 per month, he should also be attempting to generate some kind of an extra cashflow of around $583.33 per month (which is $14k/24) in order that he will have the ability to pay $14k in late June 2024.  

I doubt that OP has thought that far ahead because he seems to have been gambling on BTC going up in value in order to be able to pay off the loans in late June 2024.


I am glad that you have the ability to admit that you have learned some lessons KingsDen. Learning lessons is important for anyone investing, managing money and figuring out how to employ practices that also include the balancing of seeking profits and managing risks.


Even if you supposedly learned various lessons, I am not sure if you are thinking about the matter correctly.  Sure, there are always opportunities out there, and sure with bitcoin or anything else, you are able to enter at any point that you like.. so in that regard, there is a need to measure the opportunities and balance the allocations and figure out the size of your positions based on facts currently available.

In regards to bitcoin, I frequently tell people to get the fuck started as soon as possible, but even if I tell them to get started as soon as possible, that does not mean that they should jump into bitcoin balls to the walls.  Maybe they start out with $10 per week, and they work up to $100 per week while they are studying the matter and getting their finances and psychology in order.  One of the most important things with any investments is to figure out your own finances and psychology, and you do not need to know all of the finances and psychology with great precision in order to get started right away.  Any of us should have some ballpark ideas of our incoming cashflow and our expenses, so we right now any of us should be able to figure out if we can afford to buy $10 worth of bitcoin for today's (this week's) allocation... and then surely, we can spend some time to figure out our details, and surely some folks have some really fucked up finances (and psychology) that they have gotten themselves into.. so for some people it could take a while to really sort out their personal matters.  

You are not wrong in regards to opportunities always being available... yet I am not sure if it is the right mindset when it comes to recognizing and appreciating the value of bitcoin, especially if you happen to be either a no coiner or a low coiner.  On the other hand, if you have already been accumulating BTC for some time, then you may well not be a no coiner, but you still might be a low coiner and in need of evaluating if low coiner status happens to be your situation.


That's not true.  You don't necessarily need super high appreciation in an asset (whether bitcoin or otherwise) to be able to profit stupendously from it.  It's kind of sounds like you really have not learned very much if your mindset is to pursue assets in order to become rich quickly.  You say that you have learned things.. but I wonder if that really is true..? have you learned actual important things rather than merely reinforcing dumb ideas or just learning unimportant things on the fringe?


You really are acting as if you know where bitcoin is going... .. as if it is just going to be flat, go down, or have mediocre performance.  How do you know these things?  Which assets are going to appreciate?  Which assets are better than bitcoin?  Are you a no coiner? or a low coiner?   Where are you putting your money right now?  Do you have any money?  Are your actions reflecting your words or are you just spouting out hypothetical nonsense that is not based on anything?

Give me an example.  Let's say that someone is late 20s or early 30s, and they have an investment portfolio that is around $50k or maybe they have accumulated more (and they have an adequate emergency fund and all that).  What is their current allocations?  Do they need to reallocate?  They have an income of about $3k per month with expenses of about $2,000 per month.. so they have about an extra $1k per month for investing.  Where do they put that $1k per month?   Yes, you can change the variables if you like... but let's entertain some specifics rather than suggesting that having some bitcoin allocation is supposedly all doom and gloom from here on out.

For sure, I do not recommend trading or gambling as a base case - but some times people are very tempted to go with all or nothing practices, or they might start to trade with a small amount and then get sucked into more and more and then pretty soon they are putting too much of their holdings at risk.

It tends to take most normal people a long time to build up an investment portfolio, yet at the same time, the lack of patience causes a lot of people to become impatient and also want to attempt to make more by trading or gambling - and the vast majority of traders do not have portfolios that perform better than more straight-forward DCA strategies.  So yeah, in the end, when guys/gals are tempted to gamble, it is usually better to limit those strategies and continue to have their base case as DCA accumulating, buying on dips and various forms of accumulation that do not involve selling in order to buy back lower.

There are some theories that suggest that BTC holders might want to consider at what points do they start to rake some of their profits..

Risto's (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan thread is one of those   (RIP to Risto)

and sure maybe there are points in which your BTC investment is 100% in profits, 4x in profits, 10x in profits, and at various points, you may choose to sell portions of your BTC.. and you may well be emotionally neutral in regards to whether you are going to use that money to buy back or not (in the event that the BTC price goes lower).....

So let's say that you invested $20k into BTC when prices were below $1k, so that got you around 20BTC.  So when the BTC prices went up to $10k, you had around $200k in value, so you decided to sell 1 BTC, and then when prices went up to $20k you sold another, and so on and so on  up to $60k you sold 1 BTC each time the price went up $10k.  At some point you might start to get nervous because you ended up selling 6 or 7 BTC, so you were down to 13 BTC when the BTC price was up to $69k.. and if the BTC price had kept going up you felt that you did not have very many BTC... so maybe you were able to buy back... and maybe not.  A lot of people do end up screwing up in these kinds of matters because it seems great on paper and in theory, but putting it to practice is not always very easy to figure out price points to sell, how much to sell and at what points to buy back, if at all.

So yeah.. it is possible that selling might ONLY be done when in sufficient profits.. but there still will be questions regarding how much and how to do it.. which likely involves risk management, like you mentioned Sayeds56.

I think that you are overly-complicating this.

yeah, sure I agree that all kinds of shenanigans were likely going on, yet I am not going to presume that:

 1) SBF had some kind of a front lead on Caroline and Wang.  It just does not make sense based on currently known facts and logic.  In other words, Caroline and Wang were likely more scared by the level of the deep shit that they knew themselves to be in and the fact that they could not really hide.. which means that they listened to attornies and front run getting their asses in front of the SD of NY authorities to work out some kind of a deal.. of course, through their attorneys..  Sam was delusional was not listening to counsel, thought he was the smartest guy in the room . and ended up getting himself into a pickle with those delusional thoughts.

2) There are clawback provisions in bankruptcies that would likely ONLY allow going back around 90 days - however, in this case, there seems to have been so much damned commingling of funds, fraud and lack of proper bookkeeping that personal assets are not going to be likely to be able to be kept separate from the assets of various companies.  So, I do have some questions regarding how a bonds bailsman would be able to muster up that level of confidence regarding any assets that were connected to FTX, Alameda or any of the likely various shell companies that had been created in order to engage in fraud.  Sure.. maybe superficially, there might be some confidence that some of the assets are going to be "free and clear" yet I have some troubles just imagining that a lot of the supposedly "personal" assets of some of the players might not get put into jeopardy. and rightfully, they should probably go back into the company and for clients, but probably there are going to be quite a few ambiguities in regards to the various legal entities that were created and whether they should be honored... perhaps even Sam's parents might get sucked into this too.. whether they were personally helping him or maybe they just "knew people" who could help sam to create so many sham organizations that were being used to steal money and to commit fraud.

I am not going to claim to know very much.. and especially there is still a lot of investigation going on regarding to some of the monetary relationships that are still being discovered.  Maybe we will never know if there are a lot of settlement agreements? or if Sam ends up self-suiciding... which maybe he is less likely to do since he is out of jail.. He might go back out on a press tour, against his attorney's advice (and maybe part of the conditions of his release is that he is not supposed to go out on more speaking tours?).

That's true.  But you are not really saying much.


Buying govt bonds is not as great of a play as you are making it out to be.. especially if you were to understand bitcoin... In other words, just don't over do it with those govt bonds... sure if you are 65 years old, you can play around with that nonsense a bit more because your likely timeline is shorter.. but if you have a 4-10 year plus timeline, be careful NOT to overallocate in that kind of stuff.. maybe no more than 20% of your starting out investment portfolio at the most, and careful about being too whimpy on bitcoin too... bitcoin should be 1% to 25% for those starting out in investing, and of course, tailoring to your personal circumstances is important.. on the lower end of the range if you are a scaredy cat in regards to bitcoin, and up to 25% if you are more bullish on it.. and then go from there.. let's see how it goes... try to do your own thinking too (not talking about you specifically Philip.. but just generally, because we're on a public thread).



Because Biodom is "whimpy" don't you not know nuttin?


Yep.. will be interesting.

Is the bottom in or not?  We might not know if the bottom is in until end of 1st quarter or even well into the 2nd quarter of 2023..

I would be worried about concluding the bottom is in while BTC prices are still under the 200-week moving average (which is currently $24k).. and I may well require more than that on a personal level.. even though just getting back to the 200-week moving average or getting above it might cause bullish sentiments.