By the way, I saw where you later said that it was a joke, and recall that even though we went down to around $56,500 around April 30, we are still having trouble getting down to some of the lower levels that you had been considering to be so probable.. yet sure, at the same time, we have not yet gotten to $80k or supra $80k numbers either.. so surely interesting times to have had been consolidating mostly between $60k and $70k for around 3.5 months-ish.
Yes, it looks a lot more interesting now after all this consolidation, and increasingly likely the break-out will be definitive once it occurs - ie continue in that direction for months to come once it happens. Price looks pretty indecisive still, given higher bullish and bearish volume candles cancelling themselves out in recent days. Given the low volume, it could certainly go either way from here. I'm still anticipating a continued correction since we've been failing to maintain the previous cycle ATH for so long now, which has never been a problem before in previous cycles, as well as other factors such as failing to continue to the upside from $68-70K levels back in March, which was the mid-cycle top potential, similar to summer 2019, and completely the opposite to December 2020 when price pierced through it with ease at $21K. Now ironically it's around $89K which would be the next target for a mid-cycle correction, but I'd happily concede that at that level a mid-cycle correction is unlikely to play out, so would probably be somewhat irrelevant it seems. Additionally the miner capitulation hash ribbons post-havling signal last month (like clockwork) suggesting further consolidation/correction rather than immediate upside, which has generally been pretty reliable over the cycles, and so far is playing out even though it's only been a few weeks. So while at present price still looks/structured bullish, above longer-term MAs etc, there are bearish macro factors in play which wasn't the case a few months ago when I was speculating about a correction or consolidation as opposed to immediate further upside. This is nearly always the case with a few months of consolidation within a range at the highs, similar to early 2021 between $50K and $60K, where there were warning signs prior to a 50% correction. Of course we could look back and blame the China ban that was the catalyst, but this is generally irrelevant; the market was fragile enough for a state actor to take advantage, whereas if the market was full-blown bullish it would have barely had any effect on bullish momentum. Naturally a buy signal could otherwise turn this around to parabolic-bullish pretty swiftly like in July 2020, so as I said initially, it could quite easily go either way even if there are bearish warning signs that lack follow through. Price strength is otherwise flirting with getting rejected from overbought levels, similar to November 2021, which while I don't believe will lead to a "major" correction (ie -75%), it could still lead to a significant correction before a 2025 bull market takes off, as there is a still most of two quarters left in the year, so plenty of time. At least historically, this type of a rejection often leads to a around a 25-35% correction, or alternatively a few months of consolidation (ie on top of the few months we've already had), which doesn't seem like a crazy idea anymore (ie 6 months consolidation). But again this is a case of if price is able to comfortably return to and maintain overbought levels, then there is a lot of room to the upside between an RSI of 70 and one of 90, similar to $35K to $45K move, or $42K to $69K. So generally, there's a lot more reason to be cautious at current prices compared to 3 months ago, even if not quite bearish if price can hold $60K support level. I just personally think price will struggle to do that, as was the case last month, whereas this time around returning to these support levels will be a lot worse, for example breaking the 20 Week MA around $63K has been a reliable signal for a deeper correction to come, and hasn't happened since last year. It otherwise generally seems likes longer-term OTC sellers are distributing to ETFs, hence the range-bound price right now, given the relatively low spot volume in recent weeks/months, the continued accumulation (overall) from ETFs, and otherwise HODL waves showing longer-term holders taking profits. This seems also pretty clear from number of Bitcoins produced per day vs accumulation from ETFs. It's been said for months that this imbalance would lead to much higher prices (such as yourself), but so far this hasn't happened, and based on the low spot volume, the selling must be coming from elsewhere like OTC. This seems to be the current battle in play, and whether the current price range will be confirmed as an accumulation zone by ETF buyers, or a distribution zone for OTC sellers, isn't possible to assess until it happens. Aside from how much bitcoin ETFs have aggressively been accumulating (around ~5% of total supply last I checked), I don't doubt that OTC sellers have a lot more than that on offer to sell at current prices if they continue as they have been. So this range could last another few months at this rate, until sellers run out of coins to sell, or otherwise ETFs slow down or stop accumulating. Generally I think it's best to let these whales play games between themselves, and let it play out, as there could be a bear whale / bull whale type of event that happens behind closed doors that would catch a lot of people off guard. So anyone longing or shorting on leverage within this range need to be extremely carefully, already the recent chop is a major warning sign that there is a determined battle between different entities or groups of bulls and bears at present. That might sound like a dramatic or exaggerated analysis of current price movement/range, but bear in mind the bulls are acting transparently via ETF accumulation that's well documented, while OTC bears are far from transparent with their dealings, so in this case I'd say have the slight upper hand, because no-one is really able to track how much they are selling or how much they have to sell. Obviously this is just my opinion, generally just weighing the odds of the bullish market structure with my interpretation of the bearish warning signs, as well as some analysis of why I think price has been ranging for so long, and why the consolidation could also now continue. Ideally someone would provide another argument for this beyond "price suppression" which is generally a meaningless phrase unless backed up by facts or legitimate theories. Admittedly my scepticism about immediate continued upside has grown over the past few months, because I doubted that price would go much higher, and that a new ATH would be sustainable, based on hypotheticals and speculation, which so far has been the case. The fact price hasn't considerably correction yet is somewhat irrelevant, as I accepted that it would likely take months to play out if it were to occur. I have my doubts that there is any necessity for me to respond to any of your particular pieces of analysis, since I am not really sure if you are saying anything with any level of conviction, except that maybe you consider the odds for having a downward correction are greater than they had been earlier because of a failure to break to the upside - yet you are not even saying that with any level of meaningful conviction or specifics - except that certain lower levels might happen - and surely, I am willing to stick with a bet that I had earlier stated, which is that the BTC price will likely not get lower than 20% higher than the 200-WMA.. and sure yeah there could be breakouts to the top or the bottom, and I had largely just been proclaiming $55k to $82k to be no man's land.. causing a certain increased level of probability that the breakout is going to be towards the top rather than the bottom, but it is not like certainty, so maybe slightly greater than 55% odds.. add 2.5% odds since we are generally in a bull market and add an additional 2.5% odds since we are in no man's land, but that still only gets us to 45/55 rather than 50/50 odds or something other than that, and so that might not even give us anything that is bettable.. even you did not come back to suggest some kind of potential bettable terms when we dropped below $60k the last time.. around April 29 that lasted ONLY slightly less than 3 days. I mean I can hardly see any changes to the conditions from the mere fact that BTC prices have largely been bouncing around at the top of the range between about $60k and $70k for the past 3.5 months-ish and yeah there may or may not be further consolidation.. and it hardly matters except that I am a wee bit surprised that we are hanging out in no man's land for quite longer than I thought, but it is not even like the upward's inclinations of noman's land and/or the greater chances of less resistance give any certainties regarding what might end up happening, since we recognize and appreciate that less likely scenarios can end up playing out, and less likely scenarios end up playing out a lot of times, which make them hardly tradeable and hardly bettable, except maybe considering some of the extremes might become bettable, for example if you are going to want to bet me that the BTC price is going to get below 20% above the 200-WMA prior to the end of 2025, or if you want to bet me that BTC prices are not going to end up touching somewhere between $120k and $180k in 2024, or if you want to bet me that the high price for 2025 is not going to be higher than the high price for 2024. .and yeah I don't have great confidence in ay of these propositions, except that I would be willing to bet them in terms of their being greater than 50/50.. and even with that I understand that I might not end up winning the bet, even though they seem bettable from my perspective and it would be interesting if someone, like you, might be willing to take the opposite side of such potential bets.. |
|
|
|
[edited out]
DCA means using an amount maybe $10, $50, $100 or from your discretionary income based on your own case to buy bitcoin regularly weekly or monthly without skipping any one for 4-10 years. While buying at the dip is when an investor keeps his money in fiat and everyday, he is busy watching the chart and bitcoin price hoping to see a dip for him to be able to buy. The annoying thing with these set of investors who do not have enough Bitcoin and is waiting for the dip, always have their own price in which the want bitcoin to fall to be they will buy. So e of them will end up waiting till infinity without buying one Satoshi. I will suggest that if a person is merely buying anywhere between $10 per week/month and $100 per week/month is likely going to need way more than 10 years in order to get to a status of having had accumulated a sufficient amount of bitcoin. Perhaps such a person will need 20-30 years or more to really get to a decent place with his/her bitcoin stash. For sure, each of us has differing expectations in regards to how much income that we might need to be able to live comfortably, whether we use bitcoin proceeds to completely replace any income that we have or to supplement income that we might have from other sources. The concepts or idea of the lump sum completely has nothing to be talked about in terms of buying the dip, the idea of the lump sum buying has to do with making purchase of Bitcoin with the huge sum that is readily available to be invested right away without considering whether the market condition is in dip or not.
Bro you are wrong here and you tend to sound like you are right. Lump sum still involves buying the dip, it depends on the investor whether he chooses to Lump sum at any time without minding the price of the market or he may choose to Lump sum during the dip. And it is true that the best time to Lump sum is during the dip and then DCA through any market interval. In my own opinion this is the right approach to follow an investment. If there are extra buck that comes in along our investment, we can choose to wait for the dip then and when it comes, we Lump sum as well. Tmoonz has the right idea. The mere fact that you have extra money that you are holding aside to buy the dip does not convert that into lump sum, merely because the amount might be larger than your normal buys. The three main strategies in accumulating bitcoin is DCA, buy the dip and lump sum. Sure you can combine these strategies and even front load your investment by buying more in the beginning, yet if you really want to attempt to apply strategies in differing ways, sometimes there may well be advantages to understanding the difference between the practices in order to take advantage of such differences, and yeah, whether you know the advantages and disadvantages or not, you can do whatever you like and call it whatever you like, even though you might cause confusion when you are not able to differentiate between what is buying the dip and what is lump sum and what is DCA. [edited out]
I disagree with your statement because those investors who are accumulating bitcoin with the DCA strategy and also buying the dip will always accumulate more bitcoin than the investors who are only using the DCA strategy to accumulate bitcoin. Just because they are waiting for the dip doesn't mean they will stop accumulating bitcoin with the DCA strategy; they will continue to accumulate bitcoin with the DCA strategy. They have already kept the money to use to buy the dip; they are just waiting for the dip to happen so they can buy bitcoin at a low price. You only advantage from holding money aside to buy the dip if the BTC price actually dips. So how could you always advantage from buying the dip if the BTC price does not end up dipping? I think that another valid point that Chiomaobi was making is that some of the newbies that he knows get so caught up in terms of strategizing whether or not to buy the dip and what is a dip and all that bullshit, so they put themselves into more of a waiting rather than an acting kind of mindset (and practices), so many times it may well end up being a lot better to just act and to continue to buy BTC, even if your average cost per BTC might be higher .. .. and in that regard, you stay in a buying mindset rather than a waiting mindset.. and yeah, sure there could be circumstances in which the waiter will actually get more advantages and end up buying more BTC than the one who regularly buys BTC, but really? does it make a difference, and maybe it is better to just continue to buy until you get to a certain level of BTC accumulation and then thereafter (when you have accumulated a decent amount of BTC) begin to strategize about buying dips rather than just buying regularly, persistently and consistently in your earlier BTC accumulation stages. Sure in the end, guys can do whatever they like in terms of figuring out the extent they might be advantaged by holding some money aside to buy dips or just to buy BTC regularly no matter the price. The concepts or idea of the lump sum completely has nothing to be talked about in terms of buying the dip, the idea of the lump sum buying has to do with making purchase of Bitcoin with the huge sum that is readily available to be invested right away without considering whether the market condition is in dip or not.
Bro you are wrong here and you tend to sound like you are right. Lump sum still involves buying the dip, it depends on the investor whether he chooses to Lump sum at any time without minding the price of the market or he may choose to Lump sum during the dip. And it is true that the best time to Lump sum is during the dip and then DCA through any market interval. In my own opinion this is the right approach to follow an investment. If there are extra buck that comes in along our investment, we can choose to wait for the dip then and when it comes, we Lump sum as well. It is very problematic to confliate the terms of lump sum buying and buying on dips as both strategies has their unique functionalities with meaningful differences such that you can not refer any kind of buying the dip as a lump sum simply because you are buying with a larger amount of money more than your usual, the idea of the lump sum buying has to do with an investor decision in terms of investing a huge amount of money that is readily available for investment and decided to invest this money right away such that it has nothing to or necessarily connected with whether or not there is a dip but rather it has more to do with your personal decision, the lump sum strategy are unique on its own such that at some time it is use as an upfront or front loading investment strategy. Yes... I said something similar.. but yeah.. that sounds like the right idea to consider advantages and disadvantages of various strategies, and surely some strategies will be better or worse for guys, yet each of us has to decide for ourselves in regards to which strategies to use and to live with the consequences of whichever choices we make in regards to our strategies. Surely there are some folks who rarely get opportunities to lump sum buy bitcoin (or any other investment), yet sometimes if a person is engaged in good cashflow management practices, s/he might be able to advantage from situations that he had not previously thought were available to him.. which is one of the advantages of already have a plan and practice in place, when opportunities (of extra money) come, the plan and practice is already in place to be able to take advantage of the opportunity rather than spending the extra money on potentially frivolous and unnecessary things that may well not have as many longer term advantages as compared to investing into bitcoin. |
|
|
|
Your asset base should be much higher than your investments if you intend to accumulate bitcoins until you have a decent stash. You can be overly aggressive in accumulating bitcoins but realistically not at the expense of all your wealth. That's why pricing each asset level separately is to ensure maximum utilization during the period of its need. The portion of your wealth that can go into investing in Bitcoin is a fraction of your income and it may take a long time for you to reach a decent size by following the normal process but consistently running it.
Agree with what you just said, when we invest, what we have to think about is how we manage our finances so that we don't get too high, we invest as much as possible, that's fine, but we have to remember, our remaining savings must be more than that we invest, because no matter how much investment is not necessarily profitable in an instant, it will definitely take a long time and be a long process, don't let all the savings we have be invested, wherever we want to take our daily needs, in the end we will end up going into debt first, so We have to balance it with our savings, don't let it exceed the limits of our own capabilities. You have the correct idea Mr.sprin - however, the longer you invest into something (whether bitcoin or anything else), then the more likely your investment is going to become way larger than the various kinds of savings (presumptively fiat for emergency fund, reserves and/or float), and so the main thing to consider about your various cash reserves is to maintain them to such a level that they are able to cover various aspects of your expenses, including your emergency expenses might be something that you will never have to dip into your emergency fund, but yeah the various kinds of reserves in cash should be in place so that you never have to dip into your bitcoin investment at a time that is not completely of your own choosing, including that if you are investing into something volatile like bitcoin and if you have a long term time horizon on your bitcoin investment, such as 4-10 years or longer, then you should be going into your bitcoin investment with extra money that you are not going to need for 4-10 years or longer and even with the consideration that it is possible that you will 100% lose your investment into bitcoin. Surely no one wants to lose their investment, yet when we are investing into something as volatile as bitcoin, we should consider the actual existence of both upside and downside scenarios while at the same time figuring our allocation in accordance with various kinds of probability based calculations of the future. I also see that @Marvelockg gave some decently good examples in regards to how cash management and/or investing remains dynamic in such a way that we figure out ways to attempt to follow some kind of plan but also potentially adapt our plan as we grow our various kinds of funds in terms of what might be in our various reserves as compared to our various investments, and presumptively if we are invested 10-20 years or longer, our investment porfolio might end up being 95% or more than the cash portions of our funds, even though there is going to be variations that our own experience will help to inform us how much we might want to keep in cash/cash equivalent versus various kinds of investments so there well end up being some folks who feel more comfortable to have higher portions of their overall investment portfolio in cash or cash equivalents, whether that is 10%, 25%, 50% or some other amount that is comfortable for them and tailored towards their various individual factors including considering their 9 individual factors. [edited out]
If you understand what "Real Life asset" means you would not be confused Mate. Real life asset are asset that exist in real world scenario and are tangible. Is Bitcoin tangible? You are making a point out of nothing, Bitcoin changing lives as you said does not make it to be categorize as Real life asset. Art work, commodities, Real Estate are examples of Real life asset, I don't understand were you are coming from with your word "Controversial". It never a misleading point, but a simple word for clarification as such distinction would keep members in a place of acquittance and would not be confused like you. I do agree with the idea that in some circumstances, it can be good to distinguish between digital and physical assets, since they are different, even though there may be times when they overlap, especially if there sometimes might be attempts to monetize physical assets in digitalized ways, but there still remains various distinctions that are worth appreciating rather than convoluting the categories as Dump3er seems to accomplish...even if he otherwise made some interesting points, he also seems to have had confused some of the distinguishing matters that actually exist with the frameworks, too. If you don't have an emergency funds to take care of emergencies that might arise, you will not survive in your bitcoin journey, because you will sell when you don't want to sell because of some unforseen challenges. Reserve funds are for backing up our emergency fund so that we only touch our emergency funds when a real emergency occurs.
Exactly!!! A mistake that a lot of newbie investors make is to end up using some or all of their bitcoin investment as an emergency fund, and so when some emergency comes they consider that they are just going to draw "a bit" from their bitcoin investment and take care of any kind of "real world" expenses matters that may come about, and so part of the short-sightedness of such an approach is that bitcoin tends to be all over the place in terms of value, so that when the emergency ends up coming, it may well end up being at the exact worst time to be selling bitcoin or maybe if it is not exactly the worst time to sell bitcoin, it is not a good time to be selling bitcoin, so in those cases, a person may well have had been better off buying bitcoin rather than selling, but if they are suffering from an emergency, it may well be possible that their own poor cashflow management had ended up contributing to their creating an emergency situation for themselves... so yeah, there can be a lot of value in having extra cash hanging around, even if that cash is "not working" in any kind of direct way, but in some kind of indirect way, that "non working" cash may end up allowing for staying invested in bitcoin in a fairly aggressive way, even during times in which bitcoin's price performance might not be doing very well, relatively speaking.. yet at the same time, it is either best to stay in the bitcoin investment or to buy more and at the same time, it is understandable that sometimes folks run out of money and they cannot buy more bitcoin, but at least if they do not end up having to spend their BTC during such negatively volatile times, then at least they are likely going to be in a stronger financial and psychological position as compared with someone who had not engaged in good cashflow management. |
|
|
|
Probably very basic question. Why would someone loan money to MicroStrategy instead of just buying BTC? I am sure there is reason, I just don't know and want to learn. I am not going to claim to know any kind of exact answers regarding why some folks might choose certain kinds of investment vehicles, and surely the fact that an investment vehicle is popular can also drive a certain amount of extra demand for it. Also, I am not sure how the convertible senior note differs from some kind of a loan or MSTR stock or some kind of a bond in the company, yet institutions and/or individuals choosing to invest in such are still going to weigh advantages and disadvantages to holding different kinds of instruments and perhaps getting exposure to bitcoin, MSTR, Michael Saylor, intelligence technologies and/or whatever else they might perceive their involvement in such convertible senior notes might offer to their purchase of that kind of a financial instrument as compared to other financial instruments as compared with buying bitcoin directly. And, yeah in a case like this, there may well be ideas of exposure to dollars and getting interest in dollars and perhaps a kind of superiority of investing in a senior convertible note with MSTR than buying USA treasuries... and yeah, they may well be thinking about their investment into something bitcoin related in terms of assured dollar terms that the senior convertible note describes. Many times people/companies investing into specialized offerings like a MSTR convertible note are already going to have various kinds of financial investments that they might consider either correlated or not correlated to some new thing that they are purchasing... It is doubtful that the convertible notes are the ONLY thing in their investment portfolio, even though surely we cannot overly generalize that there could be some companies and/or individuals that end up overly weighting their purchases into one or another kind of investment, such as an MSTR senior convertible note. There are some people and/or institutions that like the idea to have a company (such as MSTR) managing, holding and getting exposure to BTC and the various aspects of MSTR and/or Saylor in a kind of sensationalism way... and yeah, various kind of offerings that MSTR makes (in this case senior convertible notes) are going to specify the terms and may have some special benefits that may well not be as good as holding bitcoin directly, but still the person/institutions buying such convertible notes might still consider the terms of such notes to provide some kind of reasonable expectation of returns.. whether or not they actually also hold bitcoin directly too.. (and sure I have no problem considering the idea that some of the institutions/people buying MSTR senior convertible notes might not even directly hold any BTC at all). There are other people and/or institutions that are not able (or maybe it is not easy or convenient for them) to buy bitcoin directly, so they are using whatever financial vehicles that they have available to them (or they hear about) to allow them to buy MSTR through such a financial vehicle (yes this is not MSTR, but it is a version of MSTR, and yeah, people/institutions might engage in some investment conduct that is not exactly maximizing in the sense that they might really be better off buying bitcoin directly). For sure, those of us who already buy and hold bitcoin directly may well be quite reluctant to overly complicating our investments and/or adding various 3rd party risks to our bitcoin investment, but surely there are individuals and institutions that are quite uncomfortable (or even unable) to hold bitcoin directly. |
|
|
|
And even if we get to $150 this month, does that make any difference to most of us that haven't gathered a lot of Bitcoin at this team that it's still bearish with respect to it future value? The best thing to do is to buy as much Bitcoin as we can buy now in anticipation of whatever bull that's coming.
Exactly. Relative newbies within their first cycle of accumulating bitcoin may well might not have had accumulated a lot of BTC in such time, and so there should be almost no need for newbies to want the bitcoin price to go up while they are still trying to build their stash - except for the feeling of validation that comes from the BTC price going up quickly. On the other hand, once a newbie has accumulated a decent stash (which s/he might not even know how much is a "decent" stash), then it becomes more reasonable for that newbie to be wanting BTC prices to go up. There also might be some point in which a newbie is somewhat neutral to either way.. s/he has a decently sized stack, but at the same time s/he is continuing to accumulate bitcoin, so there begins to develop a bit of emotional and financial neutrality during later stages of BTC accumulation. There are some folks who claim that they will never stop accumulating bitcoin, yet that might be a bit of a premature assessment, since at some point, it may well start to feel that a person has enough or more than enough BTC. Of course, some folks are motivated by more than financial and emotional comfort, but instead about a kind of competition to want to become bigger and more powerful than other people - through the amount of wealth that they accumulate.. so those never satisified kinds of ideas seem to be more personal power struggles rather than considering more basics of financial self-sovereignty that likely comes at way lower and more practical levels of wealth accumulation. It is certainly possible for Bitcoin to hit $100k, as Bitcoin prices have touched a high of $73.6k from lows in the past. Since the bull market of 2021 was the peak target, the possibility of more bitcoin price increases this year is very high, which is why every investor increases the maximum investment. So there is a high probability that the price of Bitcoin will at least reach 150k this year.
Your analysis is insightful indeed, Bitcoin's past performance suggests that a price surge to $100k or even $150k is possible. Bitcoin's history shows significant price increases, and the current market sentiment and investor enthusiasm could drive prices higher. The current momentum could push prices further. Many investors are optimistic with the current momentum and optimism surrounding Bitcoin, continuing to accumulate Bitcoin regularly can potentially lead to significant gains if the price surges. By sticking to a long-term strategy and avoiding emotional decisions based on short-term market fluctuations, investors can benefit from the power of bitcoin. Sincerely I feel we push or anticipate more than normal, it would not be surprising to me to see Bitcoin keep ranging or drops below $60k, my only anticipation is Bitcoin creating a new ATH, if that does not happen then there is no need expecting Bitcoin price gets to $150k. We should not let our expectations consume us, it would take time, if Bitcoin rallies that much I expect a massive drop because it cannot hold. You are correct that BTC prices may ore may not get to $150k in the short-to-medium term, but at the same time, BTC prices may not drop (or even have a massive drop, even if you expect such a thing to have to happen... a massive drop does not have to happen, and it does not have to happen from a mere reaching of $150k-ish which merely around a doubling of the BTC price from the ATH or around 2.25x from our current prices. Sure, no problem attempting to prepare ones-self financially and psychologically for either price direction and a lot of potential BTC price moves, yet such preparations also do not necessarily mean that it would be wise to attempt to trade on such possible price moves.. while at the same time, any bitcoin newbie or bitcoin accumulator is likely in a better place to have some kind of plan regarding how s/he is going to deal with any future BTC price moves, even potentially extreme ones and even BTC price moves that are somewhat outside of expectations. |
|
|
|
Those who started buying/mining before 2013 should have thousands if they held a majority of btc bought or mined.
2013-2016: 20-200 btc or thereabout.
After 2016- highly variable
I think that there is likely to be a lot of variance, depending both on how long someone might have been accumulating BTC and also how aggressive or whimpy such persons they might have had been in such BTC accumulation process... and maybe even accounting for some mistakes that were made along the way. Maybe we could project something like a 4-year (1 cycle) accumulation of BTC, and then maybe another cycle of maintenance which might also include some relatively small levels of additional BTC accumulation.. but maybe also largely maintaining the original amount of BTC that was largely accumulated in the first whole cycle.. so maybe something like the below for the various 4-year accumulation phases... I am not sure if I should fill in the amount invested, since it may well continue to go up, so the earlier a person got in, the less that he would have had to have invested in terms of total dollar amounts.. .and so the later would have had been higher dollar amounts and getting way fewer coins, even with way more invested. 2012-2016 = 50-400 BTC 2013-2017= 35-280 BTC 2014-2017= 25-250 BTC 2015-2018= 18-180 BTC 2016-2019= 15-130 BTC 2017-2020= 12-100 BTC 2018-2021= 10-80 BTC 2019-2022= 7-60 BTC 2020-2023= 4-45 BTC 2021-2024= 1-28 BTC 2022-2025= .021-18 BTC Need I continue? We can see where this is going. Way more capital accumulating way fewer bitcoin. 70's now gone?
You'll never see sub $70K prices ever again. That did not age well. By the way, I saw where you later said that it was a joke, and recall that even though we went down to around $56,500 around April 30, we are still having trouble getting down to some of the lower levels that you had been considering to be so probable.. yet sure, at the same time, we have not yet gotten to $80k or supra $80k numbers either.. so surely interesting times to have had been consolidating mostly between $60k and $70k for around 3.5 months-ish. |
|
|
|
qI agree with you that buying at the dip should be done with some unexpected funds that comes our way which we don't have plan for, and whether they come or not, our regular DCA continues. What I do is that whenever, I am given a bonus at work or traveling allowance, training allowance, or some incentives for motivation at work. I keep such funds without touching it so that if it happens that bitcoin price dips, I can take advantage of the dip and buy more. And if it happens that I don't have any extra funds apart from my monthly income, my regular DCA is what I do and focus on more weekly When it come to accumulation of Bitcoin, we should always keep our DCAing constant irrespective of the market conditions. Expecially those of us that can't afford to purchase large quantities of bitcoin. Because if one have the mindset of always waiting for the dip before accumulating he or she will only endup missing out or having small quantities of bitcoin in their portfolio. That's why is better to save some funds (which is known as reserve funds) in case any dip occurs one can purchase the dip with the use of reserved funds, and he or she can choose to spread it out or go all in with the reserve funds like lump-sum purchases. And there are investors who made buying at the dip as there Bitcoin accumulation strategy and what if the market did not dip will they keep waiting? It will be better they use the DCA strategy and also buying the dip strategy together so that the DCA strategy can help them accumulate more Bitcoin at different price level weekly or monthly and also buy when the market is at dip with the help of their reserve fund. But if the investor is still a low coiner the buying dip strategy alone won't be a good Bitcoin accumulating strategy. There may be absolutely no need for a brand new investor, and maybe someone in their first few years of buying/acumulating bitcoin to employ buying the dip strategies rather than sticking with straight-forward and regular DCA (which may well not even be sticking with any particular amount of BTC, but instead figuring out how much BTC to buy each week from the amount of disposable income that he has for that particular week, whether that is $100 or $10 or some other amount). Yet of course, there might be some psychological reasons to hold some money aside for buying the dip, but it may or may not end up paying off because we cannot rely on dips actually happening or even happening to such an extent that it is even going to make much of a meaningful difference in a person's bitcoin journey, especially if the person might be new to investing and ONLY investing around 10% of his/her income so it could take a whole 10 years to have 1 years of income invested into bitcoin.. so it is difficult to understand and/or appreciate what value might have had come from buying the dip rather than just buying regularly and not changing behaviors based on factors that might be difficult to measure the extent to which there might have been any kind of advantage to straight-forward DCA. On the other hand, any of us might come across periods in which we receive extra money for a variety of reasons. Some people might receive bonuses two or more times a year or there could be other times in which extra money comes available, and surely there could be some thoughts about lump sum, buying the dip or just incorporating that extra money into DCA... and maybe if the extra money just gets used right away for BTC purchases, then that extra money also becomes just a part of the person's DCA system, so I am not even suggesting either choice is more preferable since these are the kinds of discretionary choices that each of us has to make in terms of how aggressive or how whimpy that we want to be in terms of our ongoing bitcoin accumulation - and there is no correct answer, even though there surely may well end up being a difference between the person who invests $100 per week into bitcoin for 10 years and the person who invests $10 per week into bitcoin for 10 years (because the person who invested $100 per week would have had accumulated 10x more bitcoin than the person who invested $10 per week into bitcoin), but there still is no correct answer regarding what might have been the better choice even though a lot of us may well appreciate having had accumulated 10x more bitcoin, but there may well might have been trade-offs along the way in terms of accumulating 10x more bitcoin, too.. such as maybe the person who invested $10 per week rather than $100 per week ended up having a happier life because he was spending that extra $90 per week on things that ended up contributing to his ongoing current happiness rather than his delayed his happiness. Each of us has to figure out and make our choices, and surely we could use some DCA charts to see how $10 per week versus how $100 per week would have had played out in terms of the quantity of bitcoin accumulated during the past 10 years, for example. |
|
|
|
[edited out].
Basically, converting digital tokens to digital assets can sometimes be considered in the sense that there are assets that are more valuable than others so you can decide to sell less valuable assets to buy Bitcoin when those assets starts depreciating in value but let it not be assets that are still generating good money for you. Surely I was not attempting to differentiate between various kinds of digital assets and digital tokens, since I was only referring to bitcoin and otherwise referring to various productive and/or non productive assets and/or currencies. When you get into talking about various digital assets it sounds to me that you are talking about shitcoins as a way to potentially diversify, and surely I was not talking or even hinting at any of that kind of discussion, since your earlier post did not seem to do that either. The only digital asset/token that I was referring to was bitcoin... and maybe the dollar might be digital in some cases... but much of what you had initiated your post with was talking about some kinds of physical assets that might be used for generating income, such as equipment... and so there can be assessments about those physical assets and the extent to which they hold their value and how much inputs they might require to generate income.. and then also if they depreciate in value, hold their value or potentially appreciate in value. I quite understand your point and I apologize if i sounded contradictory but you can agree with me that Bitcoin is also a digital asset and when am talking about digital assets it my post am referring to Bitcoin precisely and I don't mean that anyone who is into Bitcoin should diversify into other projects that are of less value than Bitcoin so if anyone who is a Bitcoin investor ventures into diversifying into something that is of less value when compared with Bitcoin then such person might be considered to be mentally ill. If you are referring to bitcoin, then why not just say bitcoin instead of using some ambiguous term that might cause someone to consider that you might be referring to something other than bitcoin. Accordingly, bitcoin is not plural, so it seems to be misleading and ambiguous to describe bitcoin as a digital asset rather than just specifically referring to bitcoin. Using the term digital asset(s) comes off similar as using the term cryptocurrency - and becomes especially more problematic if you do not state what you are referring to.. and there is no reason to use the term digital asset, cryptocurrency or even blockchain if you are specifically referring to bitcoin, and if you are referring to some other crypto currencies, digital assets or shitcoins, then almost always it is better to also make clear which ones you are talking about - or perhaps even to state that maybe you are referring to things other than bitcoin when choosing to use such terms and generally describe something that might be happening that might relate to bitcoin but also might involve some shitcoins, too. Just like what I said initially about leasing office equipments and I said that such equipments can generate income that can be used to fund one's investment in Bitcoin instead of selling them off so that is just the form of diversification am talking about and not some shit coins or shit projects other than Bitcoin.
Exactly, you were referring to some physical assets and talking about those in the context of considering whether or not to reallocate some of that value into bitcoin or some decisions around allocation choices, so yeah, I did not have any problem with your previous discussion, yet I did have problems with the vagueness and ambiguousness of your referring to digital assets and digital tokens... which you may as well admit that if your intention was to just talk about bitcoin then it would probably have had been better to just use the word bitcoin instead of bringing up those vague and ambiguous terms that may well cause confusion regarding what you are referring to, which it did for me and perhaps for others too. and sure there are some folks who are already used to vague, misleading and ambiguous references, so they might not even notice when you seemingly purposefully chose to do the same... maybe you are trying to sound smart.. but from my perspective (whatever that is worth?) the sues of such vague/ambiguous terms has the opposite effects. If you check in the area I highlighted, the more valuable assets I was referring to was Bitcoin and not any fucking shitcoins, even if I sound contradictory over there perhaps my explanation here can convince you about the mode of diversification am talking about.
Whether you are apologizing, clarifying or doing some other thing in regards to your earlier word choice, we still seem to be considering that anyone making choices regarding the extent to which they might invest into bitcoin (or reallocate) still may well require a decent amount of analysis that goes into determining value changes of the assets that are being considered, perhaps how much income they generate from the asset, how much capital needs to go into the asset, and how much labor (or other inputs) might have to go into the assets that they are comparing, so we are repeating ourselves in terms of individuals making these kinds of assessments and still maybe in some cases the individual may have good (or better information) and in other cases the individual may be guessing in regards to the extent to which it might be better to stay in one asset versus another and the answers might not end up being obvious regarding expected values of being in one asset versus being in another. |
|
|
|
[edited out]
I think committing to only 100 a day makes it a lot more flexible schedule wise. With some experience it shouldn't take more than 9 minutes with doing 10 pushups a minute starting with minute 0. I'm working to get it down to 4 minutes with 20 pushup sets. Tonight was 20, 20, 10x6 sets. Lots of ways to pushup.  Okay, I just had to do 12 more.  I think it is a good idea for some of the guys to get into describing some of the particular ways that they are doing pushups and also the various ways that they might be adapting their pushups over time in order to either experiment or to attempt to focus on some kind of particular need that they want to address. In my own case, I am not too inclined to attempting to ONLY do (or average) 100 pushups per day, especially since my earliest objective in regards to my participation in this pushup challenge, was to attempt to average more than 100 pushups per day in order that I might be able to have and maintain a pushup cushion, so I had always wanted to get above an average of 100 pushups per day and to stay mostly stay there if possible.. while at the same time realizing that if I have my average pushups per day above 100 pushups per day, then at that point, I would be able to have some slack (slouch) days and still be able to maintain my average above 100 pushups per day. At the same time, I ended up giving myself a goal of ongoingly pushing up my average pushups per day until I got to 200 pushups per day on average, while at the same time starting to feel that I had both gone overboard and/or that I had gone far enough with that desire to continue to increase my average number of pushups per day, so in that regard, my maintaining 200 pushups per day for around 25 days after I had reached an average of 200 pushups per day had motivated me to come back down the ladder and to get my average back down to maybe around 150 pushups per day, or perhaps something in that ballpark area. Yeah, I am not locked into my own plans, but I like to try to engage in a certain amount of self-discipline in the area of self-creating some goals for myself and then trying to stick with the carrying out of those goals for a period of time until I feel that I have done enough and I might start to speculate about some changes that I might make to the goals that will allow me to stay in the game rather than potentially abandoning the project.. so yeah, here we have the pushup project that still continues to occupy a decent amount of mental and physical space for several of us who continue to actively participate in such activities.. perhaps daily for some of us, and others may well be participating in some kind of a schedule that is less frequent than daily. Fine! since the thread is for pushups only I guess I will just have to stick to the pushups
Tried it this morning,it was so hard that I had to stop on 11, I thought it will be so easy since i do some early morning jogging,although I did it after I came back
This should count too, correct me if I'm wrong in my report
100k,Mee Sa,01,11,2024-06-12
I don't know if DirtyKeyboard's script is going to recognize two digits for your number of days for doing pushups could have had more logically been written as one digit rather than two digits.. so are you trying to play with the script? Test out the script? or merely test our patience in these here parts with your seemingly illogical representation of your double digit number of pushup day(s)? [edited out]
A1C is 5.8 down from 6.8 in feb goal is stay under 6.0 I am there! my bad cholesterol went from 115 to 81 goal is stay under 70 I am closer! my good cholesterol went from 30 to 37 goal is get over 40 I am closer! Sure A1C and even running fasting glucose levels (below 100-ish) are not bad things to attempt to measure.. Personally, I am not much of an enthusiast for the heart lipid hypothesis, especially when it comes to the ideas of bad cholesterol, so I really question whether it is valuable to bring down supposedly "bad cholesterol" to such levels, including the taking of statins for such.. so yeah, a lot of people are taking statins, which is also a questionable "standards of care" practice. I am o.k with the idea of bringing good cholesterol above 40 for men.. and surely, I am also interested in trying to keep triglycerides below 100... |
|
|
|
I don't know if I am right but I feel that only the DCA method can be used to invest in bitcoin and build your bitcoin investment gradually, and at the same time build your emergency funds from the left over of your discretionary income for those new beginners who are not earning much and don't have bulk cash available to use in startingtheir bitcoin investment. This is why I love the DCA strategy but if it can be mixed with buying at the dip when you are prepared, you will get a better result.
The ONLY way that you get better results by mixing buying the dip with DCA is if the BTC price actually dips. If the BTC price does not dip, then you do not get better results. There have been many times in bitcoin's price history that it did not dip further, so person's employing buy the dip in those circumstances may well not have had been better off than strictly employing DCA. Part of the reason that DCA is so effective is not because it guarantees that you will have better costs per BTC and the fact is that you may well end up with higher costs per BTC by employing DCA - yet at the same time, you are able to figure out ways to be as aggressive as you can with your investment amount into BTC from your discretionary income - which is quite a good thing for no coiners or low coiners to strive to get a stake in bitcoin and not to preoccupy themselves with short term moves in BTC price. But to be able to mix buying the dip with DCA we need more money, we must always have a fiat reserve available to buy bitcoin because no one knows when bitcoin will fall. That comment hardly makes any sense. You have whatever budget that you have, and you have to figure out how you are going to invest based on the budget that you have and also based on your other individual 9 factors, which happens to include how many BTC that you might have had already accumulated, and for sure the more BTC that you have accumulated, then the more luxury you will have to wait for buying dips rather than just buying BTC regularly and as soon as your money comes in. And preparing additional capital can be a challenge for many people.I agree that this strategy will yield better results but it will be more complicated because it requires more capital and there will be risk if bitcoin does not fall further as you say.
Either you have additional capital or you don't. If you earn some kind of income and the income keeps building up becuae you are waiting to buy the dip, then that is a choice that you have. If you happen to have some assets (such as stocks or property or bonds or something like that), and you might want to choose to consider selling some of that and buying bitcoin, but you don't necessarily need to sell such other assets, but the selling of some other assets could be a form of capital that you are optionally able to generate. Another thing could be that you receive a bonus or you inherit money or you win the lottery or you rob a bank (I am not advocating criminal activities), so there could be various ways that you might come upon a lump sum of capital that you could decide to buy bitcoin right away with all or part of it or you might choose to allocate some of that capital towards buying the dip and/or allocating it towards DCA purchases... You have discretion in those cash management regards, and surely there can be advantages to having capital or coming across capital, but there is no need to presume that anyone has any extra capital that goes beyond his/her regular monthly income (and even monthly income can have a considerable amount of variance and even expenses can have a considerable amount of variance... and the existence of such variance contributes towards variance in discretionary income that anyone might have). So, I think we should be consistent and loyal to the DCA strategy to make our bitcoin accumulation easier and not make us more stressed because of bitcoin volatility.
DCA works so well because it can be tailored to the level of aggressiveness that any of us would like to employ, and surely once we start to accumulate a decent size of BTC stash, we might want to consider if we might want to modify the way that we do DCA including incorporating buying the dip and/or how we might consider the employment of lump sum purchases of BTC in those times that we might come accross extra cash that we have to decide how we are going to spend, invest and/or save it. |
|
|
|
[edited out]
At least seeing the life cycle of Bitcoin this year, I never felt that investing in Bitcoin would be a loss for any period of time. As the beginning of the year was buoyant, the price of Bitcoin has been buoyant throughout the year. I am not sure what purpose comes from attempting to measure bitcoin from the beginning of this calendar year. That hardly makes any sense. We could start from the November 2022 bottom, or if you are trying to focus on more recent events, we could surely see that there was a run-up that began right around October 2023... so measuring bitcoin price performance in the middle of a run up seems like it is going to fail to capture some kind of an actual dynamic that is going on within bitcoin's price that is not tied to the start of the calendar year. After the halving, many thought the price would go down a lot but it didn't, the price of Bitcoin started to go up a few days after the halving, if currently the price of Bitcoin is going up and going down for some time.
Well the BTC price had already gone up a lot prior to the halvening.. so whether it continued to go up or not seems almost like a non-event.. meaning that realistically, you could not necessarily have high expectations either way, even if some folks might have had high expectations.... sounds like a big so what to me. I would not be engaging in my own bitcoin preparations merely based on expectations of others that may or may not end up playing out. Might we say that the BTC price reached a high price of $73,794 on March 13, 2024, so then it has largely been bouncing around in the $60k to $70k range in the past 3 months.. or maybe we could suggest that the BTC price broke above $53k in the end up February 2024, so add a couple more weeks to the analysis that BTC prices still have largely been ranging in the $60k to $70k arena for that whole time which is 3.5 months and so why might we be wanting to make further assessments for why or whether or what direction that BTC prices might be going when it seems to largely be at the top of its range and close to its ATH for the whole last 3.5 months, and 3.5 months is not even a very long time in the whole scheme of things in terms of consolidations.. and whether we get a break up or down from here is still to be determined, while at the same time, it still seems quite clear that an overwhelming majority of the world's population (maybe somewhere in the ballpark of 99%) still does not have any or enough bitcoin... but what can we tell those lowcoiner/no coiner people.. since they still seem to be failing/refusing to buy any bitcoin, yet those of us who know about bitcoin still can be ongoingly buying it in the event that we are still building our bitcoin stash size. Anyone who wants to invest in the current time, I think it is a good time, if you invest from here slowly and continue to invest for a long period of time, the bitcoin price will reach your desired goal. You can try and can hold it.
I am not going to disagree with you about this part of your post, since that seems to be the punchline message, especially since there may well be expectations that the BTC price would go up, but it still has been stuck in a range, and surely at the same time, there are no guarantees that the BTC price is going to continue to go up from here, so anyone investing into bitcoin needs to figure out how much s/he wants to invest into bitcoin, and surely there are advantages to those of us who have been buying and/or holding bitcoin for a while, but that still does not change the fact that if there are a lot of low coiners and no coiners out there, then the ONLY real way for them to prepare for BTC prices to go up is to actually have some bitcoin, but yeah, it may well take some of those folks quite a long time to get their hands onto some bitcoin and to figure out how to hold it in both private ways (and maybe even holding some of their coins with third parties, though many of us know that to be less preferable). Another thing is what is the investment timeline into bitcoin? 4-10 years or longer? Hopefully folks are not just planning to play the upcoming wave of BTC prices that is going to potentially be up and down in the next less than 4 year period of time, but surely everyone has to figure out their own ways of accumulating enough bitcoin, including considering if they have a large enough BTC stash in order to start to feel comfortable engaging in some kind of a practice that is anything other than accumulation, and since around 99% of the world's population still does not have any or enough BTC, I prefer to presume that an overwhelming majority of persons still do not have enough BTC.. yet surely it is not easy to measure number of persons who have accumulated BTC, whether they are holding their BTC with third parties (which truly does not 100% assure their ownership fo the coins) or if they are engaging in some kind of a self-custody, which surely is the preferred way to hold BTC, even though newbie bitcoiners might not be able to jump straight into self-custody without first spending some time with bitcoin and learning some of those self-custody matters, yet I personally do not proclaim that learning and/or practicing self-custody is a prerequisite to getting bitcoin exposure.. and a person may well start out getting exposure to bitcoin prices and holding BTC through 3rd parties as they are learning about self-custody and figuring out various ways to make sure that they end up holding a decent majority of their coins through self-custody.. perhaps even 75% or more of their coins should ultimately be held through self-custody, even though while they are newbies they might start out by using third-parties to hold their coins.. to the extent that they acquire their coins through third-parties. There are some newbies to bitcoin who may well get to know various bitcoiners, and may well be able to buy bitcoin directly from already existing bitcoiners or to offer goods and/or services to acquire bitcoin, so we cannot necessarily lock ourselves into one model that any of the bitcoiner newbies might start to build up their bitcoin holdings and end up holding their BTC in various kinds of ways that may or may not end up being one way, including that from jurisdiction to jurisdiction some of the availabilities of getting coins can vary.. and also some of the availabilities of getting in and out of coins can change from jurisdiction to jurisdiction with the passage of time too.. so bitcoin remains a learning process for all of us. [edited out]
What are we worried about? Volatility and privacy are part of the beauty of Bitcoin, if a newbie investors is getting his or her self worked up for the volatility of Bitcoin, some other veterans or more informed Bitcoin investors will be very much confident because he knows that on the longer run, his investment will generate a very good revenue for him or her, so to me the volatility of Bitcoin is a blessing in disguise. So as long as you are a long term holder, you don't have to be worried about the volatility of Bitcoin, because it will definitely bounce back to your favour, only if you are a long term holder, so we should be happy for it volatility, not getting worried over it. Why do you feel such a need to proclaim that bitcoin will "definitely" bounce back. That kind of absolute language is quite problematic, even though surely many of us recognize and appreciate bitcoin as a solid investment, it still is not "guaranteed" to bounce back or even to "go up forever Laura".. even though again bitcoin is a solid investment and from time to time, it does not hurt to exaggerate the upwards trajectory of bitcoin, but still we have to be careful in regards to recognizing the reality that guarantee does not exist. Lastly, another set's of people that gets worried about volatility are the traders, so are you a trader? If not then you should be confident on your Bitcoin investment on the longer run, because it's actually the real deal.
This response seems to be a bit mixed up, especially since traders love volatility and tend to be able to profit way more from volatility rather than from non-volatile assets/currencies. So, generally speaking, volatility is a friend to traders, yet still traders can still end up getting into trouble with any asset (including something like bitcoin) if they might be giving too much weight to up and down factors without adequately accounting for bitcoins likelihood to continue to go up forever.. so there still could be ways that traders play bitcon and are able to profit from its volatility so long as they do not end up getting caught up on the wrong side of some of bitcoin's unexpected upward price movements and their having had little to no BTC price exposure during such upward price movements that may well end up not correcting back down and they would have had been way better off to have had been in bitcoin rather than out of bitcoin and sometimes during such upward price movements the traders might have had ended up losing all of his/her previous gains because s/he had failed to adequately hedge himself/herself. We know that generally very large portions of traders end up losing, and we also know that historically bitcoin has a very good asset to hold onto rather than attempting to trade, so surely the traders who end up profiting in trading bitcoin may well have ended up getting lucky or maybe they ended up having certain kinds of skills (and/or insights or insider information) that ended up differentiating them from an overwhelming number of traders that have ended up doing worse by attempting to trade bitcoin rather than just ongoingly persistently and consistently accumulating it. [edited out]
I don't seems to understand how volatility became the beauty of bitcoin both in terms of investment and for adoption into businesses and daily lives of people. On the contrary, I feel the volatile nature of bitcoin is a major stumbling block confronting bitcoin and its acceptability by businesses. I have seen many people willing to accept bitcoin in their businesses but the major challenge they always reference is that bitcoin is too volatile and that what was agreed now might not hold before payment are completed because of the volatile nature of bitcoin. There is nothing wrong with people (who accept bitcoin in the business context, for example) to consider how much bitcoin that they would like to hold, based on expectations of its ongoing volatility. Sometimes they might fail to appreciate the value of bitcoin based on its volatility and they may well want something that is pegged to the dollar, so that is their choice - which they might end up under-allocating to bitcoin based on such negative perceptions about its volatility that they have not figured out adequate ways to mitigate though their allocation amounts. In terms of long term invest, we might say it does not matter but it can actually affect entry point even though when the intention is for long-term holding.
Just because people might accept bitcoin for goods and services does not mean that they have to hold all of the value in bitcoin, so for example someone who has an income in fiat may need to buy bitcoin, but someone who receives bitcoin for goods an services may well have to sell some of his/her bitcoin in order to maintain a balance in his/her investment level into bitcoin, and part of that may well depend upon if his/her bills are in fiat or in bitcoin, and surely we could presume that the majority of people are going to have their bills in fiat.. so they still have to figure out their balances whether they receive some or all of their income in bitcoin.. .. and they still may have to consider whether they are going to save/invest 5% to 25% in bitcoin, and surely a starting presumption might be that it might not be realistic for people to save/invest more than 10% of their income in bitcoin, so individuals have to tailor their amounts to their circumstances, since some folks can afford to be more aggressive than others depending on the level of their discretionary income, whether that discretionary income comes from bitcoin sources or from fiat sources, similar kinds of analysis needs to be done in terms of how aggressive they are comfortable in being in terms of their bitcoin accumulation and/or holding of bitcoin versus other places that they might hold their value...including their considerations of their emergency fund, reserves and/or monthly cash floats. Someone investing in bitcoin through buying the dip might experience price jump when executing the order and this might be in price differential of over $2,000 considering how volatile bitcoin can be. Therefore, we can say that volatility account for the uniqueness of bitcoin and never the beauty.
The beauty comes from the attempt to create systems to deal with bitcoin's most likely ongoing and inevitable volatility that is not easy to really predict direction and/or how long the BTC price might stay within various price ranges. Lastly, another set's of people that gets worried about volatility are the traders, so are you a trader? If not then you should be confident on your Bitcoin investment on the longer run, because it's actually the real deal.
Indeed traders are those who complain so much above the volatility of bitcoin because of they stop loss getting eaten up always. But since the discussion is not trading focused, I will say no point emphasizing that. But like I said before, the volatility of bitcoin is still a thing to be worried about even though such worries are less for long-term investors. Yep. It seems that trading is a bit of a specialized topic, and we should not necessarily consider that it is a good thing to get into trading or even the need to talk about trading in various bitcoin threads. Yeah, people do trade bitcoin and some of them are able to profit and/or make money from such trading, yet it surely is not obvious that an overwhelming majjority of folks would be better off to either not trade at all or to limit the amount of their trading of bitcoin, since generally speaking trading takes time to learn and to employ various tools and methods that even experienced traders have difficulties employing in profitable ways, which seems a bit strange why anyone would be wanting to overly trade bitcoin when it has already proven to be amongst the best (if not the best) of assets to hold for the long term, and even if the future of bitcoin's prices is not guaranteed, there surely is some value in considering holding bitcoin and limiting the trading of it.. even for those who are curious about trading, maybe they could consider some value in terms of limiting their trading of bitcoin to less than 10% of the size of their bitcoin holdings and be careful not to overdo it.. even though for many (if not most people), trading can end up devolving into a kind of gambling rather than a real good way to spend time, money and energies.. [edited out]
Ok I understand your point very well, but I have a question for you, how would Bitcoin be different from the fiat if it has no volatility? How would it be different if it's as static as the fiat, and is a prey to inflation? This is a pretty dumb question. It is like you are asking for us to imagine bitcoin to be something that it is not rather than something that it is. The fact of the matter is that we should be attempting to appreciate bitcoin for what it is rather than trying to imagine bitcoin to be something that it is not, and if you think about the matter, bitcoin happens to both be the most sound of monies ever invented/discovered and at the same time, there happens to be a bit of a battle (or might we say war) in regards to bitcoin's role in society. So if we are both experiencing the greatest transfer of wealth known to man kind and there is also various kinds of disinformation about bitcoin, then how the hell is bitcoin going to remain stable in those kinds of circumstances? Perhaps once bitcoin gets into the ballpark of 10x to 100x of the market cap of gold, it might become more stable, but even then, we have to consider the facts as they are and attempt to assess what is going on once bitcoin gets to those kinds of prices (market cap levels)... so in other words, try to consider and accept bitcoin for what it is rather than engaging in fantasylandia imaginations about what you wished it were to be when your wishes do not even seem to be accounting for what bitcoin actually is. Or most of us the Bitcoin enthusiastic that are clamouring to one another that we should hold on tight for a very long period of time, so as to be able to build a generational wealth, how are we going to achieve that if Bitcoin is not volatile?
Fair enough.. Bitcoin volatility ends up being to the upside mostly, but surely it is not guaranteed to be to the upside in the period of time that you are hoping it to be to the upside, and it is also not guaranteed that you are going to manage your bitcoin accumulation and/or your maintenance of your BTC in such a way that you are going to be able to either benefit from its likely ongoing appreciation and/or to be able to pass such wealth onto your heirs. Bro, we are definitely going to end up in a huge lose for holding too long, you know why? Because by then inflation will have a serious effect on it that we are definitely going to regret holding for too long, so my brother, it's because of it volatility we are holding it, because with the high potential of Bitcoin, we stand a chance of making significant gain, if we can hold a bit longer.
Yes... .the dollar and other various fiats are ongoingly debasing against bitcoin, so hopefully many of us can recognize and appreciate such ongoing debasement of fiats that are contributing to the demise of various fiat systems, even though surely we need to also survive in our holdings of fiat and bitcoin and maybe even other ways of holding value in terms of making sure that we do not overly allocate to bitcoin in such a way that we are no longer able to hold it and we do not want to be forced to sell any of our BTC at a time that is not completely of our own choosing. |
|
|
|
[edited out].
Basically, converting digital tokens to digital assets can sometimes be considered in the sense that there are assets that are more valuable than others so you can decide to sell less valuable assets to buy Bitcoin when those assets starts depreciating in value but let it not be assets that are still generating good money for you. Surely I was not attempting to differentiate between various kinds of digital assets and digital tokens, since I was only referring to bitcoin and otherwise referring to various productive and/or non productive assets and/or currencies. When you get into talking about various digital assets it sounds to me that you are talking about shitcoins as a way to potentially diversify, and surely I was not talking or even hinting at any of that kind of discussion, since your earlier post did not seem to do that either. The only digital asset/token that I was referring to was bitcoin... and maybe the dollar might be digital in some cases... but much of what you had initiated your post with was talking about some kinds of physical assets that might be used for generating income, such as equipment... and so there can be assessments about those physical assets and the extent to which they hold their value and how much inputs they might require to generate income.. and then also if they depreciate in value, hold their value or potentially appreciate in value. You know some people just have archaic understanding about Bitcoin investment and most of them are all these short term investors, they basically sell valuable assets to purchase Bitcoin with the believe that they gonna make good profits in the short run forgetting to know that Bitcoin is a high volatile asset that at some point the value depreciates and also appreciates so any investor that have a short term target can run into losses when they sell their other valuable assets to buy Bitcoin with short term targets if the value depreciates and that is why it is advisable for us to have long term targets when investing in Bitcoin and should not sell valuable assets to buy Bitcoin but we can use the returns from them.
Well any time that we might generate a lump sum (of value, whether it is from the sale of assets or otherwise), then there could be questions about whether to buy bitcoin right at that time, or to maybe employ various strategies of buying on the dip, DCA and there can be a variety of considerations that include considering how many BTC you already have in light of your other personal goals and/or timeline considerations. There are risks in any volatile asset like bitcoin, yet if you are a long term investor of 4-10 years or longer then you should be able to figure out ways to mitigate some of the volatility, yet you still may well be better off to buy bitcoin at the top of the market rather than waiting, which also gets back to looking at questions of how many BTC you already have and decisions about alternative ways that you might deploy your value into bitcoin in the even that you might not want to invest in a lump sum kind of a way (that might end up being at the top of the local price range). The answers are not straight forward and might not even be the same for everyone. Even though we all wish to acquire Bitcoin but we should not completely ignore other real life assets when we are investing in Bitcoin because sometimes those real life assets helps to propagate our investments in Bitcoin and that is reason why diversification is important in this regard.
If you are already starting out with assets, then you might already be starting out with diversification. If you are starting out without any bitcoin, and you choose to buy some equipment because you believe that it will generate you income and bitcoin will not, and that could be an error too, since the bitcoin might end up giving you better price performance - yet you are not going to necessarily know, but if you are an expert in some kind of an industry you might be able to calculate various trade offs, and one of the advantages of bitcoin is the ability to invest in small amounts and on a regular basis, which you might not be able to do with various pieces of equipment, so some of the answers might depend upon what kind of equipment, how much capital is required in advance and the other input factors related to the equipment as already mentioned several times. Selling your assets to buy Bitcoin is not advisable except they are liability that are in form of assets and they are not productive or bringing any returns or proceeds for you at the end of the day but if they are business assets like lease office equipments such as heavy duties, caterpillars, construction equipments and lifting equipments these are very good assets because they give you good proceeds so you can't sell such assets to buy Bitcoin but you can use the proceeds to invest in bitcoin, the only time you can consider selling such assets to buy Bitcoin is in a case where they start malfunctioning or getting old such that the cost of maintenance may be higher than the income they generate for you.
I think before anyone consider selling their assets to buy Bitcoin or invest in bitcoin, it's because the assets is not productive, the assets is no longer serving its purpose or becoming a liability. Weighing this factors investors can decide to sell such assets and acquire bitcoin, because there is value of holding bitcoin. But it not a good investment decision or advisable for an investor to sell an assets that is productive or income generating assets to buy Bitcoin rather you can invest in valuable assets like Bitcoin by using the proceeds from productive assets to buy Bitcoin it's more sensible approach. This way you can diversify into Bitcoin investment while still maintaining your income generating assets. The mere fact that an asset generates income does not make it a better investment than bitcoin, so it is going to depend on the circumstances, and there may also be some unknowns involved also. Sure some folks might be better able to calculate how much certain kinds of assets might generate, and it may well be better to hang onto some of those assets and to use the proceeds of the income to buy bitcoin.. yet I still would not assume that the answer is obviously to select productive assets over bitcoin, since the answer is not black and white and some analysis may well need to be carried out in order to attempt to figure out various options and which options might be better to employ. [edited out]
You're absolutely right, Converting digital tokens to digital assets requires a thoughtful approach. It's essential to differentiate between valuable assets that generate income or appreciate in value and those that depreciate or become liabilities. Selling valuable assets to buy Bitcoin or any investment with a short term focus can be risky, especially if the asset's value depreciates. Bitcoin's volatility can result in significant price swings making it essential to have a long term perspective. If we are devolving into talking about digital assets and digital tokens, then it seems quite problematically devolving into vague and ambiguous references and talking about shitcoins. Using returns from valuable assets to invest in Bitcoin is a more sustainable approach. This way you can maintain your income generating assets while diversifying your investments. Diversification is crucial, as it allows you to manage risk and increase potential returns. It's important to strike a balance between investing in Bitcoin and maintaining other valuable assets that can help grow your investments.
It is not always important to diversify, especially if you might be a fairly new investor into bitcoin, so don't get distracted into some nonsense ideas that cause you to conclude that you need to diversify for the mere sake of diversification. Your hinting at shitcoins by mentioning digital assets / digital tokens and also proclaiming that diversification is amongst the most important, seems that you are devolving into retarded and confused ideas. We were initially referring to income generated from some kind of equipment, and even then the answer is not obvious that the investment should be in the equipment rather than into bitcoin, especially since bitcoin has advantages in terms of how little capital might be required to begin to invest into it - and so maybe some people might already have equipment and/or real world opportunties to generate income that might need to be considered.. A person could be in a place where it is difficult to generate decent income on his own labor, but if he has some equipment he can multiply his opportunties to generate income from his labor... yet the answer is still not going to be obvious since it might make a difference if the equipment costs $5k versus if it costs $50k, and then there could still be questions regarding how much the equipment ends up improving his ability to generate income from his labor. But when you are throwing in ideas of digital assets and/or digital tokens, then who knows what vague nonsense you are talking about with supposed income generation that you might consider to be coming from your ownership of digital assets and/or digital tokens.. You sound distracted and muddled in your thinking or whatever message you are wanting to share in terms of your discussion of choices of investing into bitcoin versus investing in some other places that might generate income.. Are we talking about investing into shitcoins or some of the other concerns about physical equipment that a person might already have or maybe a person is considering purchasing physical equipment instead of bitcoin in order to generate income (which also is not a necessarily straight-forward answer). |
|
|
|
[edited out]
well one of us could be correct. or maybe it just goes sideways in the 66-68 slot for a while. I am pretty sure that if each of us is largely saying that the BTC price could go up, down, sideways or maybe it won't, then it is likely that both of us are going to end up being correct. Brief and funny We are supposed to be mad at each other. Don't you remember? btc on exchanges at an all time low
I guess someone wants to buy / is buying cheap...
That is a bit terrifying if you hold your Bitcoin on an exchange... Imagine they refuse to give you your Bitcoin back because they don't have any? There has been a trend of lower and lower supply of bitcoin being held on exchanges - so what else is new? We already know that there is a risk in holding bitcoin on exchanges, yet I doubt that the longer term bitcoiners are holding very large portions of their coins on exchanges. Mine are not exact numbers, but I recall having something like 50% of my BTC on exchanges in 2016-ish, and then in 2017, I reduced that down to 15-18%. Then about between about 2018 and 2020, I reduced to about 10-12%.. somewhere between 2021 and 2022 I got down to 8%, and even now there can be a bit of variance, but usually I will have between 3% to 5% of my bitcoin investment portfolio value on exchanges (or somehow held with third parties).. I consider these to not be unreasonable risks - including that I have always engaged in some levels of interactions with exchanges, and yeah, sure most of my losses in bitcoin do relate to issues with exchanges and even sim swap matters, so I can also understand that some bitcoiners are not going to want to engage in bitcoin through third parties - yet at the same time, our more major problem seems to be ongoing abilities to communicate with one another directly and to be able to buy, sell and transact peer to peer. I continue to wish there were more ways to interact with BTC.. so yeah, these matters are taking time.,, If I go to a store and I want to buy something that is one thing, but another thing is if I go to a garage sale and I want to buy a desk or some furniture or maybe I want to buy my neighbor's car.. The state is so vindictive in various kinds of private transactions, including that we used to be able to self-report various kinds of transactions or not even report them, so yeah bitcoin is going to continue to play a role in these matters, and it is not going to necessarily be straight-forward when we might be asked to report transactions that we might consider to not need to be reported... Of course, the powers that be might want to know if I go to my local farmer to buy some chicken, milk, beef and some vegetables... Many people are forcecd into using third party services for accounting conveniences, which truly might not be the better way to transact, even though the farmers might not even know and/or realize about bitcoin as one of their transaction possibilities. |
|
|
|
[edited out]
well one of us could be correct. or maybe it just goes sideways in the 66-68 slot for a while. I am pretty sure that if each of us is largely saying that the BTC price could go up, down, sideways or maybe it won't, then it is likely that both of us are going to end up being correct. |
|
|
|
[edited out]
I agree with you that his idea of wanting to submit another exercise that is not a push-up is not a good idea, and it will cause a lot of confusion because other users who have added other exercises to their push-ups will want to start reporting them if such a thing is allowed here. Mee Sa should stick with the objective of this push-up challenge and should only report his push-up exercise to be entered in the push-up table. We have come a long way from being distracted by exercise that's not push-ups. I will advise him to learn how to do push-ups if he wants to report his exercise daily, weekly, and monthly on this push-up thread. Yeah.. .it should not be so difficult. We have a thread about pushups. Either you choose to participate and do pushups or you do something else and go somewhere else with that discussion of what you are doing, which means that you would not be participating in the topic of thread. It is like someone coming to a bitcoin thread and wanting to talk about shitcoins.. .. sure no problem talk about shitcoins, but do it some other place. Today it was raining heavily for several hours and the weather was so cold,while I was at home thinking of what to do to keep myself warm i decided to do some pushups to keep my body warm. I did 400 pushups in 8 sets and as I was doing the pushups to an extend I started sweating profusely,my whole body started heating up like a boiling water.I was flabbergasted with the Number of pushups I did today because I never knew I was this strong.
100k,Cossyblack,50,8895,2024-06-11
You are amazing. That is if it is believable.. Surely you will be doing 1,000 pushups per day very soon. |
|
|
|
Fck those bulltards on X.
There is currently no such thing as a bull market.
so when does the bull market starts for you this cycle? I can’t speak for anyone else, but for me it started when BTC fell below $20K. Since the bottom we’ve quadrupled the market cap and we’re still early enough in the cycle where another double from here seems more likely than not. However, this is the point where you start making sure your off-ramps are set and ready to go for when the time arrives. For sure it does not hurt to cash out some BTC along the way, but your describing having "off-ramps" ready sounds as if you are planning and/or recommending to sell large portions of your BTC holdings, which truly does not seem to be a long term investor play (or plan), and it especially does not seem to be a smart idea for an overwhelming quantity of the worlds population that has little to no BTC... so maybe something close to 99% of the world's population has no bitcoin or hardly any bitcoin, so those folks should not be planning on selling shit during this cycle.. and so in that regard, you are addressing your post to a very small niche of folks who might even be in a position to sell any BTC, let alone large portions of their BTC.. is the cat bouncing up? 🆙
I think this is just pre fed jitters.
tomorrow the feds will stay put and we will go back over 70k
or not.
Sure, this could have had been a fake out.. or not. It would not have had been the first time to experience a fake out, or not. |
|
|
|
[edited out]
Yes I realized the figured was not accurate in the two today's summation which supposed to equals 150 please I am sorry for such error I duely appreciate it's my fault not to check properly on the text before submitting but the area to which the dirty keyboard will peak was correct as it's 75 each day and it's 10 days which is 750 that is why dirty keyboard could peak it , though I am not justifying my mistake I am barely two weeks and that is not even a yardstick for such mistake full precautions is taken. Today report $100k,Uhwuchukwu53,11,825,2024-06-11. This format looks correct. Maybe now that you seemed to have had figured out how to submit a proper pushup reports, you will be able to accurately and self-reliantly update on a regular basis. perhaps? perhaps? |
|
|
|
I don't know if I am right but I feel that only the DCA method can be used to invest in bitcoin and build your bitcoin investment gradually, and at the same time build your emergency funds from the left over of your discretionary income for those new beginners who are not earning much and don't have bulk cash available to use in startingtheir bitcoin investment. This is why I love the DCA strategy but if it can be mixed with buying at the dip when you are prepared, you will get a better result.
The ONLY way that you get better results by mixing buying the dip with DCA is if the BTC price actually dips. If the BTC price does not dip, then you do not get better results. There have been many times in bitcoin's price history that it did not dip further, so person's employing buy the dip in those circumstances may well not have had been better off than strictly employing DCA. Part of the reason that DCA is so effective is not because it guarantees that you will have better costs per BTC and the fact is that you may well end up with higher costs per BTC by employing DCA - yet at the same time, you are able to figure out ways to be as aggressive as you can with your investment amount into BTC from your discretionary income - which is quite a good thing for no coiners or low coiners to strive to get a stake in bitcoin and not to preoccupy themselves with short term moves in BTC price. |
|
|
|
Edited out
If you had not noticed, pushups and situps are not the same thing... and what is close enough to pushups or what could you count as pushups might well be a subject of debate - even though I would suggest that you should be doing something that is similar to pushups if you want to count them as pushups... and from my point of view situps are not very close to pushups. Yet, at the same time, you can report whatever you like - even though I expect that the presumption is that if you submit a pushup report, you are stating that you did pushups, and if you did something else, then guys here may well not want your representations to be counted in the pushup's table, especially since members in the table are claiming to be doing some variation of pushups.. If situp is not close then which would you suggest that's much more closer. Although I can do pushups but what if I do other exercise and get it counted as pushups here , is that allowed?? That does not seem to be a fair question since pushups are the most like pushups, and if you want to proclaim that something else is like pushups, then you will have that burden to attempt to proclaim such, and maybe most, if not all of us, will disagree and suggest that you either stay on topic or go somewhere else.. especially since primarily we are talking about pushups here.. Probably better to start an Off Topic thread where we can track all sorts of exercises. Let me know if you're interested!
Okay! I think this should be cool how do I go about it if I'm to create one . It appears that you have found a solution to the matter.. either go to an existing thread that is on your topic or create a new topic. Surely, you may well have a challenge, since some forum members do not want to follow the topics of relatively new members... but you could put a link to it here if you are wanting some of us to potentially look at your thread and/or consider participating in such thread, if you were to make it. |
|
|
|
It solely the decision of any investor to decide how much he is willing to invest in Bitcoin or any other asset. Bitcoin have high return proportional to the investors Level of Accumulation of it (stash) which is guaranteed in a long run, it simply a matter of discipline, if the investor is disciplined there is nothing that can shift his focus.
Bitcoin's price performance is not guaranteed in the long run to go up - even though many folks (including myself) invest into bitcoin based on presumptions that it is more likely than not to go up in the long run... so each of us needs to establish our position size in accordance with a variety of factors, including the factor that BTC's price is not guaranteed to go up. Sometimes I do come across people talking vehemently about their investments being guaranteed in the long run forgetting to know that uncertainty do happen even though we are making speculations but the most reasons why we make good speculations about the asset we invested on is simply because we need to be positive and hope for the best in our investments but that shouldn't mean we should be too affirmative in our analysis and speculations because so far as bitcoin is concerned, there are factors that leads to projection of it's price, so if those factors don't appear in the actual direction then it will be difficult to maintain same irrational mindset or beliefs. Basically being realistic and positive about investing in Bitcoin will motivate you to accumulate a much larger stack.You may be accumulating a part of the worldly wealth in Bitcoin and it has to pull up to a point and keep your tongue wet. I have seen some investors convert some of their assets into Bitcoin and they choose to build another asset there. And there is a reflection of their confidence. You can follow them if you have confidence and positive attitude. I think a positive attitude is absolutely essential in investing and without it you will not be able to accumulate your stack freely. You should decide to choose your cushion amount of assets in depositing Bitcoin because you are holding it and the rest of the assets are financial security. Selling your assets to buy Bitcoin is not advisable except they are liability that are in form of assets and they are not productive or bringing any returns or proceeds for you at the end of the day but if they are business assets like lease office equipments such as heavy duties, caterpillars, construction equipments and lifting equipments these are very good assets because they give you good proceeds so you can't sell such assets to buy Bitcoin but you can use the proceeds to invest in bitcoin, the only time you can consider selling such assets to buy Bitcoin is in a case where they start malfunctioning or getting old such that the cost of maintenance may be higher than the income they generate for you. Selling your assets to buy Bitcoin is not bad if the cost of maintenance of those assets becomes too much but never use because you are inquisitive to buy Bitcoin and sell a valuable asset even though Bitcoin is also a valuable asset because just like what I was emphasizing before you quoted me than even though we are hopeful that our investments in Bitcoin are secured but let us not also forget that there are unforseen events that are likely to occur if the forces that keeps the market going are not in place so we should be mindful and thoughtful of the decisions we take when making investments. Probably, overall, your post is correct Cryptoprincess101 - even though you started out with the suggestion of not selling your assets to buy bitcoin, but then your exception swallows the rule.. In other words, you are not saying don't sell your assets to buy bitcoin, but instead you are suggesting to make some calculations regarding assets that you might or might not sell in order to buy bitcoin - which truly is the main overall preference to figure out the extent to which there might be more value in holding value in bitcoin versus holding that value in other assets. Some assets gain in value, others lose value and others may generate income.. and some assets have all of those characteristics at the same time or maybe depending on other circumstances that might not always be known at the time that decisions are made. Of course, you mentioned expenses that might be associated with some, assets and furthermore, some assets may well generate income only upon the application of a lot of labor, so in the end, there may end up being some questions regarding how much labor (or other inputs) are required for the assets to actually end up generating income. There may well be liquidity considerations too. Some assets are more liquid than others, and sometimes liquidity could unexpectedly become more available or unexpectedly dry up, and even though we might have some guesses and/or estimations, we do not always know in advance regarding liquidity. Also, sometimes if bitcoin is a better asset, there still could be some value to hold some value in other assets, which could be considered as diversification, but holding value in other assets can sometimes be helpful to not necessarily draw attention to situations in which you might want to have options and not necessarily have all your value tied up in bitcoin (even if you have bitcoin and cash there can be value in terms of having other assets and/or currencies). |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
