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41  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Are unvaccinated people purebloods? on: March 19, 2023, 11:03:21 PM
Pureblood is a term from Harry Potter. Its used almost in a racial context to push an agenda similar to white supremacy.

The villains and evil characters in HP are the only ones who refer to themselves as pureblooded.
42  Economy / Economics / Re: Scarcity of money on: March 19, 2023, 10:37:53 PM
Our current state of affairs, is a sad story.

It all comes down to us wanting to be confident in our choices and views, without knowing what the facts are.

Making uninformed choices based on inaccurate concepts and ideas. Leads to a negative status quo.

We need accurate knowledge and information to support the correct people and correct things.

We have forgotten this. Which is why things are the way they are.
43  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What is the Strangest Bet You Have Ever Had? on: March 19, 2023, 10:31:28 PM


Image link:  https://i.imgur.com/BvmcQZm.jpg

This attempt at arbitrage, was an oddity.

8x winnings on one side if Demetrious Johnson won.

38x winnings on the other if Henry Cejudo came out the winner.

(It also needed TJ Dillashaw and Pedro Munhoz to be a true arbitrage play. You can see from official results of the event that both were victorious.)

I think this was around the time I began attempting accumulator / parlay arbitrage gambles back in 2018.
44  Economy / Services / Re: [OPEN] Rollbit.com | Signature Campaign | Full Members+ ~ Earn up to $80/Week! on: March 19, 2023, 06:46:03 AM
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45  Economy / Economics / SVB Analysis Shows More Than 186 US Banks Might Still Collapse on: March 18, 2023, 09:14:40 PM
Quote
The banks that collapsed recently faced diverse challenges that affected their operations. For instance, Silvergate faced multiple regulatory actions due to its dealings with the bankrupt FTX exchange, its founder Sam Bankman-Fried and its sister company Alameda Research. It also cited the 2022 bearish market as part of the challenges that made it insolvent.

On the other hand, Silicon Valley Bank failed due to many losses in its operations and other factors. Signature Bank also faced challenges it couldn’t handle, leading to state intervention.

Apart from these three banks, economists have discovered more than 186 banks in the United States are already positioned to crash.

Economists Discover More Banks Set To Collapse

A recent report revealed that up to 190 banks in the US are already on the brink of a crash. Analyzing the failed Silicon Valley Bank, the analysts discovered that 10% of US banks currently have more unrecognized losses than the SVB. They also discovered that SVB capitalization is higher than 10% of existing banks.

However, SVB kept more share of uninsured funding since only 1% of banks had more uninsured leverage. So, the losses and uninsured leverage were enough to cause the uninsured depositors run that pulled SVB down.

The analysts pointed out that if others face a similar situation where half of their uninsured depositors move to withdraw, almost $300 billion of insured deposits will be at risk. Also, if the uninsured depositors’ withdrawals cause small fire sales, many US banks will be at risk.

What Happened To The US Banking Sector?

The economists disclosed that they analyzed the asset exposure of the banks in the US following the interest rates hike. They aimed to gauge how the US Federal Reserve’s moves affect the sector’s financial stability.

Unfortunately, the analysis revealed that the sector’s market value shows a shortage of $2 trillion on the book value of assets making up for loan portfolios held to maturity. It also showed that all the US banks recorded a 10% decline in their marked-to-market assets.

In conclusion, the economists stated that the declines in the values of bank assets had exposed them to the risk of insolvency if uninsured depositors decided to withdraw at once. Notably, depositors without insurance cover usually lose more when banks fail than their counterparts. As such, any hint of a bank crisis pushes them into a frenzy to avoid losses.

However, even though the situation seems dire for the US banking sector, the central bank intervention and US President Joe Biden’s assurance show the government’s readiness to support the sector. Also, a recent report disclosed that top firms in the US finance sector raised $30 billion to aid a failing US bank.

https://bitcoinist.com/svb-analysis-shows-more-than-186-us-banks-might-still-collapse/


....


"186 US banks may still collapse in the near future."   Shocked

In 2019, I made a thread on this forum entitled: Report: More Than 50% of the Worlds Banks May Be Too Weak To Survive A Recession: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5195846.0.

The topic of whether banks could survive economic downturn propelled by COVID-19 has been on my mind for the last 4 years. Perhaps now we are seeing some of the unfortunate fallout.

The narrative of failing banks dates back to the economic crisis of 2008. And even further back to the banking industry becoming increasingly deregulated.
46  Economy / Economics / Re: Central Bank: If The Entire System Collapses, Gold Will Be Needed To Start Over on: March 18, 2023, 09:09:43 PM
Another relevant thread which could use a bump.
47  Economy / Economics / Re: HSBC, Citigroup and the End of Global Banking on: March 18, 2023, 09:09:27 PM
Bumping this as it could also be relevant.
48  Economy / Economics / Re: Report: More Than 50% of the Worlds Banks May Be Too Weak To Survive A Recession on: March 18, 2023, 09:08:53 PM
Bumping this.

As it could be relevent now.


Bumping this again, as it could be somewhat relevant given the recent collapse of SVB.
49  Economy / Economics / Re: Do you think Bitcoin can end poverty? In a nation today on: March 17, 2023, 10:43:36 PM
It has been said for many years bitcoin has a strong potential to elevate standard of living for a global 4 billion unbanked demographic. Who can not qualify for conventional bank accounts.

I think to some degree, many have observed this in their personal lives. Which is how crypto has come to have such a strong and loyal following worldwide. Mass adoption is rising quickly due to people seeing firsthand the positive circumstances surrounding it. As well as the future potential to elevate standard of living for all.

Ending poverty is a completely different conversation. First we would observe, study and define poverty and all the circumstances which cause it. Then devise a plan to abolish it. For whatever reason, this never happens.
50  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Physical gambling and internet gambling which is more fun. on: March 17, 2023, 10:35:46 PM
The most fun I had gambling is having a winning day.

Then seeing my winnings appreciate in value due to them being denominated in bitcoin which was also rising to new ATH.

Gambling with deflationary assets which compound interest gains over time, is an amazing thing which I hope everyone has a chance to experience.
51  Economy / Economics / Re: How will Fed bailing out banks increase inflation? on: March 17, 2023, 10:17:00 PM
The fed balance sheet basically erased months and months of declines in the last week due to this. Now my question is will this increase inflation or not?


Its a good question.

The fed "erases" bond losses by expanding its balance sheet to buyout outstanding debt. I think the consensus is this expansion can be relatively contained within banking and financial systems. Without having much of a negative effect on markets or consumers. It doesn't trickle down in a way that directly affects the price of gasoline or eggs.

The evidence for this lies in many banks around the world being bailed out by the fed under the TARP bill from 2009 to the present. Without the process having much of an effect on the price of customer goods. The main difference from previous bailouts to current ones, is banks had better options and a growing economy to work with to payback bailout loans. While in the current market, they have a contracting economy and worsening economic conditions.

Some of what people are calling "inflation" atm is actually due to shipping delays creating artificial scarcity in markets. Which is a trend which has been observed for many years. Most noticeably in raw aluminum markets where coca cola and pepsi were forced to pay considerably higher prices for aluminum for their beverage cans. During a time when shipping delays created artificial scarcity for raw alu metals.
52  Economy / Services / Re: [OPEN] Yo!Mix Bitcoin Mixer Signature Campaign| Reward up to $100/w | 2/2 escrow on: March 17, 2023, 08:50:29 AM
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53  Economy / Economics / Re: Should we take the collapse of SVB and Credit Suisse as indicators of Woes Ahead on: March 16, 2023, 11:31:21 PM
The collapse of SVB and Credit Suisse might be a forerunner of multiple economic woes ahead. I am sorry to sound quite pessimistic, but I do believe that it is time that people get on the defensive. Look at the world economy, it is collapsing. Many people are losing their jobs in the tech and white-collar sectors. The apex banks of most countries aren't doing anything to curb rising inflation or their interest rates. My recommendation is this: diversify your investments if you can. Do not put all your eggs in one basket. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worse. What do you think? Should we take the collapse of SVB and Credit Suisse as indicators of multiple economic woes ahead?


I think the question is: how did people live in previous eras when there were no police, no state pension, no state funded schools, firefighters or universal healthcare. If people wake up one day and realize they can't rely on the government to help them. What is the rational and logical course of action?

Organized and networked communities could become a thing. If people can't rely on the government, they might turn to their neighbors and nearby friends. If they're professionals they will begin to communicate, organize and cooperate to achieve mutual goals. As well as to organize mutual defense to protect against rising crime during times of crisis.

To an extent, we might observe these trends occurring in places currently being hit with natural disasters, with little or no state intervention or aid. But the adjustments and adaptations could take time. Months. Years. Perhaps even decades, if they happen at all.

It is possible society has become somewhat isolationist in nature. Most of us have an army-of-one mentality where we will try (and perhaps fail) to do everything themselves. The value of team work and cooperation is somewhat underrated in the current era. Which could mean that the next mutant superpower people will race to develop is better leadership skills and greater investment in learning to cooperate better within group settings. While an army-of-one makes for good movies and good tv shows. Its not a good format for communal gardening and other basic societal formats which could become fundamental and necessary moving forward.
54  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Minted my first NFT on BTC on: March 16, 2023, 11:13:16 PM


There is a recent debate on this. A lot of people are saying that what you are doing is spamming the mempool.




Spamming the mempool is the nicest description.

At worst, ordinals might be considered a DDoS (distributed denial of service) attack.
55  Economy / Economics / Re: Why is Bitcoin always affected on: March 16, 2023, 11:08:21 PM

My question is, why is Bitcoin market always affected by all economics news, example is the issues with US bank like the SVB. Thank you


How did tesla stock go from $300 down to $100 and back to $200 inside of the last 6 months.



Image link:  https://i.ibb.co/CB29Ppk/tesla-crazy.jpg

The same principles and market mechanics behind wild stock market swings of the last 3 years.

Are similar if not identical to the ones behind BTC price movement. "Market speculation."

Bitcoin exhibiting lower volatility in contrast to US stocks like tesla in 2022, should be noteworthy. Why is it not being discussed more?
56  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing] Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder - May 6th in Mexico on: March 16, 2023, 02:15:00 AM
Is anyone surprised Canelo is still only 32 years old? For some reason I thought he was older, having had so many big high profile fights over so many years.

It is interesting that Canelo vs Ryder is slated for mexico rather than las vegas, which has long been billed as the "fight capital of the world".

Will this become a trend where many professional athletes will try to hold events outside of the united states, for whatever reason.
57  Economy / Economics / CFTC adds execs from Circle, Ava Labs and Fireblocks to tech advisory group on: March 16, 2023, 02:01:51 AM
Quote
The technology advisory committee aims to assist the CFTC in “identifying and understanding the impacts and implications of technological innovation in financial services and markets.”

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has signaled receptiveness to the crypto and blockchain sector after including several executives from the space as part of its new Technology Advisory Committee (TAC).

CFTC commissioner and TAC sponsor Christy Goldsmith Romero announced the updated membership via a public statement on March 13, with the inaugural meeting of the new committee set to take place on March 22.

The TAC itself was formed in 1999 and aims to assist the CFTC in “identifying and understanding the impacts and implications of technological innovation in financial services and markets.”

“The TAC may inform the Commission’s consideration of technology-related issues in support of its mission to ensure the integrity of derivatives and commodities markets and the achievement of other public interest objectives,” the announcement reads.

Twitter content:  https://twitter.com/CFTC/status/1635366134764679169

The TAC also has the potential to provide advice on tech investments that “could support the Commission in meeting its surveillance and enforcement responsibilities.”

Former White House official Carole House will serve as the chair, with Ari Redboard, the head of legal and government affairs at blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs serving as the vice chair.

Other crypto-related members include Ava Labs founder and CEO Emin Gün Sirer, Circle vice president of global policy Corey Then, digital asset platform FireBlocks co-founder and CEO, Michael Shaulov, digital asset analytics firm Inca Digital CEO Adam Zarazinski and blockchain auditor Trail of Bits co-founder Dan Guid.

Twitter content:  https://twitter.com/el33th4xor/status/1635384872746500097

Outside of crypto, executives from major companies such as IBM, Amazon, the CME Group and Cboe Global Markets have also been included in the TAC. While there is also a strong showing of professors from university law schools such as Cornell and the University of Michigan.

As part of the announcement, Goldsmith Romero emphasized the importance of working with members from private tech and other organizations to regulate and protect the commodities/futures market:

Quote
“To protect our markets from increasingly-sophisticated cyber attacks, to ensure responsible development of digital assets in a way that protects customers, and to ensure that the implications of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence are well understood, the Commission requires advice from technology experts.”

“These experts can provide us foundational knowledge about the technology, as well as the complex and nuanced impacts and implications of technology on financial markets,” she added.

The collaborative approach from the CFTC appears to be in stark contrast to that of the other U.S. agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has reportedly acted frostily towards crypto firms behind closed doors.

Executives such as Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Kraken co-founder Jesse Powell and Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long have all highlighted issues with trying to proactively work with the SEC and the government over the past couple of years.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/cftc-adds-execs-from-circle-ava-labs-and-fireblocks-to-tech-advisory-group


....


So it seems crypto executives have recently been added to an advisory group (technology advisory committee) to assist the CFTC (commodities future trade commission) in regulating financial markets.

Quote
Outside of crypto, executives from major companies such as IBM, Amazon, the CME Group and Cboe Global Markets have also been included in the TAC. There is also a strong showing of professors from university law schools such as Cornell and the University of Michigan.

Business executives from large tech corporations, in addition to professors from higher education have also been included.

This recent trend draws a stark contrast to other attempts at regulation. There are a variety of reasons for why this might be so.

Perhaps this will provide executives of crypto corporations a communications channel to work towards agreeable terms.
58  Economy / Economics / Re: Finally they understand the value of Decentralization ! on: March 16, 2023, 01:47:26 AM


It's clear that if the centralized market is relying on the banks then their funds are not secure and it could create a chaotic situations like FTX and thus everybody thinks their funds are not safe at all.



If the last decade has any lessons to teach.

One thing which might be learned is a good percentage of people in the world work hard to live under a rock. Many pride themselves on never following current events on the news and not being able to find australia on a map. The size and distribution of this demographic is a key component to determining what segment of the population is aware events like FTX are occurring. As well as to recognize how far implications of asset contagion and economic instability might penetrate into public consciousness.

While these events might seem broad in scope to those of us who have seen it on a daily basis over a period of many years.

It helps to remember that not everyone is so lucky as to have the benefits of basic knowledge.
59  Economy / Economics / Re: Replacement? on: March 15, 2023, 11:12:34 PM
I've been thinking, will it definitely be a replacement for physical money and use crypto as a primary transactions in our everyday life?


The concept of crypto replacing cash or other forms of digital transaction carries a negative slant to it.

There is a positive trend where cash and digital currencies learn from crypto and become better as a result of it existing. Providing better value and assets for wealth storage to consumers and economies of the world.

Being mad at crypto is like being mad about the pentium processor being the latest evolution of an abacus. Crypto never truly replaces money. It is simply an evolution and branching of it.

It is not crypto that people hate and fear. It is change. Some are unhappy that the world is changing. They want things to remain the same.

If we look at history we can see that this never happens. Change is one of few relative constants.
60  Economy / Economics / Re: Bank Bailouts and Stock Market. on: March 15, 2023, 10:27:43 PM

I think the banking contagion is now over.


Many sources credit the ukraine-russia conflict as being responsible for economic instability and asset contagion in the world.

If that is true, is there a scenario where economic instability ends without the ukraine-russia conflict being resolved?

If a poll was conducted where people of the world were asked what the number #1 leading cause of economic instability was, I wonder what source most would hold accountable? I have not seen any anger or negativity directed towards Putin or russia as being responsible for these issues. If such is a major trend in america, I have not seen much evidence for it.

At present, there appears to be a large disconnect between narratives published by the media and public opinion. As time passes, this disconnect appears to be growing larger and more pronounced.

Whatever official sources and experts are saying. Fewer and fewer people appear to be accepting their message over time. Which is an interesting scenario.
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