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1041  Economy / Economics / Re: A decision to make on: May 17, 2022, 11:37:36 PM
Would you rather buy a house to live in or rent an apartment to invest in bitcoin  Since bitcoin is experiencing bear what decision will you take make use of the season or let it pass.



There was big property tax hikes in the united states for 2020 and 2021.

Quote
Homeowners To See Higher Property Taxes

Average property taxes paid rose 4% in 2020, according to data from real estate information firm ATTOM Data Solutions. Housing experts expect them to jump even higher in 2021 as many communities that lost revenue during the COVID-19 pandemic are scrambling to raise new funding. Rising home prices may allow them to cash in going forward.

Metropolitan areas in Alaska, Colorado, Washington, Georgia, and California saw some of the highest price shocks. In Anchorage, AK, for example, average property taxes rose by $987.65, or 26.2%, in one year, according to ATTOM.

“It’s going to bite deep into both homeowners’ and landlords’ pocketbooks, as reassessments kick in and send property tax bills soaring,” says Brian Davis of Spark Rental, a firm that makes software for landlords.

Property taxes are expected to increase by about 6.5% in 2021, according to realAppeal, a company that helps homeowners appeal property tax bills. This larger financial burden will have the hardest impact on homeowners who lost their jobs during the pandemic, elderly residents living on a fixed income, and those struggling to get by in the face of rising inflation. Even tenants will pay the price, as at least a portion of those tax increases are expected to be passed down to them in the form of higher rents.

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/why-property-taxes-are-rising-and-what-homeowners-can-do-about-it/

I think its better to be on the home owner side of property tax hikes, rather than on the renter side. Inflation could cause home values to appreciate, with the property value gains trickling down to home owners. While renters could take a triple whammy of tax hikes, inflation and landlord middle men increasing their rents significantly higher.

It could be accurate to say both home owners and renters could suffer as property taxes are raised higher.

Those hikes in conjunction with higher fossil fuel and food prices with inflation are going to leave many unhappy with their finances.
1042  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Why Russia isn't using it's full force in Ukraine ? tactically .. on: May 17, 2022, 11:17:13 PM
Russia is under sanctions and has many attacks on its financial sectors and economy.

To counteract these pressures, Putin is waging war on a budget.

--Conscripts rather than military professionals are deployed in ukraine due to their salaries being considerably smaller
--Tanks which cost around $1.2 million are deployed rather than jet fighters which cost $100 million
--Russian ground forces have no air support as maintenance, ordnance and upkeep of an air force is much more expensive than on tanks and surface vehicles

The only exception to russia's extreme cost savings measures are their alleged launching of hypersonic missiles which cost $100 million each.

The upside to deploying hypersonic missiles is their technology is new and the data which can be gathered through real world application to refine and perfect the technology is worth more than the missiles themselves.
1043  Economy / Economics / Re: Food prices looking bullish but we need one thing just on: May 17, 2022, 10:56:51 PM
Also its good that food prices going up as im investor of food futures so at least i earn yield of high food prices but i hope there will be coins begged to wheat or other foods



How would it be implemented.

I think it would be necessary for food commodities coins and tokens to produce the food items they issue tokens for. If they issue a token for corn, they would need to grow and produce corn to balance the supply side of the equation. With the token issued guaranteeing the holder exchange for a set quantity of corn.

It would be a token intrinsically backed by commodities. Similar to what venezuela proposed with their oil backed petrol token. Like a gold standard except substituting food for precious metals.

Its a good idea.

Another format might be to plant a set quantity of food items for every token sold. To elevate production and attempt to reduce existing prices.
1044  Economy / Economics / Re: The truth about economy and crash on: May 16, 2022, 11:41:56 PM
Crash is just short time situation to give opportunity to big guys to buy cheap and then back all up.


I don't know if it can be considered a legitimate crash until assets can be bought up for pennies on the dollar.

And given our current circumstances where declines are caused by high fossil fuel prices and supply chain disruptions. Can we declare we have hit rock bottom, until after fossil fuel prices and supply chains show indications of stabilizing.

Disposable income and credit are also on steep declines, which makes it difficult to buy anything.


There will be no food shortages only thing u should worry about is that you got no money and ways to make money enough to feel compfortble in any time

Food shortages?? Cmon...i go to nice places like london dubai moscow new york manhattan monte carlo or other good place ...i flash bank card or binance debit card and i eat what ever i want ...there would be never food shortages when im in dubai luxury hotel


Was it the book "The Count of Monte Cristo" where they hold a man prisoner in a cell. And offer him food for huge sums of money, else he starves.

The problem with food shortages is, even if you have food to eat. Your neighbors may not. Foreign nations who border your own may not have food. It can trigger violence and instability. Which can burn out of control. Consuming everyone and everything. The way that World War I and II began as small conflicts until everyone became a part of it.
1045  Economy / Economics / Re: Wheat War I is going to be World War III on: May 16, 2022, 11:11:46 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong but Europe seems to be highly dependent on imports when it comes to basic food (wheat, oil, live-stock feed, etc.)


As an american I suspect europe's food sustainability mirrors their solar energy viability. Many have pointed out how solar power isn't the best option for europe due to lack of sunlight. This trend could apply as well to europe's agricultural industry, which could lack the sunlight necessary to produce good volumes of food per hectare.


This is starting to feel like WWII already when the Allies invaded India for example and how Churchil stole their food and starved more than 3 million Indians to death. The difference however is that the option to invade East to survive their European War aka WWII is no longer there for the West, so my guess would be a lot of conflict between different countries in Europe if the food crisis worsens, NATO falling apart and eventual mass migration towards East.



One key thing to consider is bluefin tuna has been on the endangered species list for many consecutive years.

With overfishing, ocean pollution and acidification on the rise. There is a chance staple food products people rely on for survival could be hunted into extinction.

The amount of arable land (agriculture) in the world decreases every year. Along with worsening drought conditions and unstable weather patterns.

We could eventually face a perfect storm of worst case scenarios that is the stuff of nightmares.

The zombie apocalypse may be cancelled. The greatest threat to humanity may be our mismanagement of wildlife and resources.
1046  Economy / Economics / Re: Well now i know why Bill Gates bought farmland back in 2021, how did he knew ? on: May 16, 2022, 10:49:21 PM
Bill Gates purchase of farmland is only one side of his agriculture business dealings.

He also invested heavily in developing artificial meat and dairy products.

Quote
Bezos, Gates back fake meat and dairy

As consumers become increasingly comfortable eating faux-meat burgers that look, cook and taste like the real thing, a food-tech start-up backed by Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates is using fungus as the primary ingredient to create alt-meat foods.

Nature’s Fynd, based in Chicago, has raised $158 million in funding from investors including Bezos, Gates, and Al Gore. The company’s meatless breakfast patties and dairy-free cream cheese are scheduled to hit grocers’ shelves later this year, with other meatless products including burgers, chicken-less nuggets and yogurt in development.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/03/bezos-gates-back-fungus-fake-meat-as-next-big-alt-protein-.html

If traditional farming wins Bill Gates owns farmland.

If synthetic farming succeeds in producing artificial foods, Bill Gates has that covered as well.

Either of the above options is a hedge against the other in something resembling an arbitrage strategy.

Bill Gates is also involved with vaccines and geoengineering to reverse climate change.

It has been suggested that Bill Gates true goal is to win a nobel prize in science for his efforts. Some have said he pays very close attention to the nomination and award process.
1047  Economy / Economics / Re: If inflation is rising, why isn't crypto more valuable now? on: May 16, 2022, 10:41:39 PM
The answer to this question can be observed in the history of crypto pump and dumps.

Over the years there have been many cases where whale investors targeted low trading volume assets. Low trading volume makes it easier to break down natural market mechanic barriers to price manipulation. This makes it easy to get in. Jack up the price of an asset. And get out with a good profit.

While it is harder to achieve this with assets like bitcoin that trade in higher volume. It is still an achievable goal for big institutional investors who trade in the highest volumes.

As bitcoin has become more available to large institutional investors, its price trends have come to mirror the stock market.

Traders with the most liquidity are trading bitcoin as if it were a stock, rather than an inflation protected asset. That is the primary reason behind our current trends.
1048  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Mind Over Matter In Gambling Using Pendulum on: May 16, 2022, 10:23:59 PM
If anyone has enjoyed wild success in gambling using the pendulum method. They have not done much to publicize their achievements.

Sports gambling is binary based. Either 0 or 1. Win or lose. A pendulum which swings to 2 points of extreme polar opposites could represent a binary pattern which can be applied to true or false conditions. The same as the flip of a coin. Or other events with non deterministic binary output.

There are schools of thought which claim to address probability aside from bayesian probability and normalized methods. Probability itself is an interesting thing to consider. While I wouldn't rule out probability in boolean terms. I think that such a thing would be highly specialized and inaccessible to most, if it does exist.

1049  Economy / Economics / Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says on: May 13, 2022, 12:28:47 PM
Quote
Moody's by contrast is bearish on real estate and recommends waiting a few years before buying. There was also a big property tax hike for the united states in 2021, which makes buying and HODLing real estate more difficult. Immigration numbers suggest demand for living space should continue to increase, which could drive markets higher.

I think that the term "HODLing'' must be referred to the cryptocurrency world only(especially Bitcoin).We must not use this term,when it comes to other financial assets and real estate. Grin



American real estate used to be the original HODL.   Smiley

Prior to the 2008 subprime mortgage crash, many believed the price of real estate could never diminish. Due to no one in the industry remembering a time when prices declined.

They call it a "real estate crisis". But the actual issue has much to do with lack of wage growth making it difficult for consumers to afford becoming home owners. It may more accurately be defined as a crisis of wealth and wage inequality as CEO wage growth has consumed the pay raises which would traditionally go to average workers.



I also don't think that illegal immigrants can apply for a mortgage.


There are government programs which offer home loans to those who cannot qualify for a typical mortgage.

Government student loans were offered to homeless living on the streets to inflate the earnings of for profit universities. (Part of how the student loan bubble became so big)

There are many immigrants in the country illegally who work and pay taxes sufficient to qualify for a home loan (I would guess) although I haven't seen stats on it.
1050  Economy / Economics / Re: Ukraine Crisis Reveals the Folly of Organic Farming on: May 13, 2022, 12:14:26 PM
I do not agree with your arguments.


These are not my arguments btw. I posted them to share what is being said in the media.

Sanctions on natural gas are making monsanto GMOs and chemical fertilizers more expensive. Pricing them outside the budget of many farmers.

Organic farming is our main option and alternative. But can it scale? How long does it take to scale? It may be critically important to begin scaling as soon as possible if it is the option people wish to pursue. Due to the lag time between initial transition and sustainability.

Over the long term these trends could lead to a demise of GMO based farming which could be replaced by organic alternatives. I thought that might be interesting to consider but apparently no one cares about it.


the Russian army is deliberately destroying the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine


I wonder what the motive for that could be.

If you were invading a foreign country, wouldn't be it be more valuable to capture it with its infrastructure intact?
1051  Economy / Economics / Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says on: May 12, 2022, 11:56:17 PM
Quote
Home values in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, and real estate in some of the most overpriced regions could fall by 10% over the next few years, according to Moody's Analytics.

The pandemic has boosted home prices in parts of the country far beyond the typical coastal hot spots, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi said in a new analysis. The most overpriced city in the nation is Boise, Idaho, which became a magnet for technology workers who wanted to relocate from pricey California cities when their offices shut due to the pandemic. By Moody's reckoning, Boise's homes are 73% overvalued, making it the most overpriced city in the nation.

The analysis may raise concerns for homebuyers, especially in regions where real estate prices have enjoyed rapid gains during the pandemic. At the same time, buyers face a double-whammy of high housing prices and rapidly rising mortgage rates, with the latter adding thousands of dollars to the annual cost of a home.

Cities in the South and Mountain West, which have seen an influx of buyers during the pandemic, could suffer a 10% drop in housing prices during the next several years, Zandi predicted.

"It probably makes sense to wait a year or two if you are able," he said in an email to CBS MoneyWatch. "House prices will be lower in the most overpriced markets, and there will be more housing inventory to choose from."

Zandi added, "Of course, it won't be a slam-dunk better market to purchase a home if you need a mortgage, as mortgage rates will likely be higher."

The economist said a given housing market is considered overvalued if property costs in the area are "well above" the historical relationship between home prices and incomes, rents and construction costs.

That may explain why smaller cities like Boise are at the top of the list of overvalued home markets, rather than notoriously expensive cities like New York. Housing may be pricier on a per-foot basis in New York or San Francisco, but workers there typically have higher incomes and can support higher costs.

Locals in Boise are now competing with buyers from San Francisco and other big cities, who often have more money to spend on housing. That is driving up prices beyond the reach of many people earning a typical salary in those regions.

Nashville, where Moody's estimates homes are 48% overvalued, is one of those cities experiencing the pain of rapid price escalation. Realtor Shane Tallant told CBS News that new property listings under $700,000 generate frenzies, with often more than a dozen offers within 24 hours.

Soaring real estate prices in Nashiville are forcing out some businesses and consumers. The Little Pantry That Could, which provides food assistance to people in need, was forced to close because its five-year lease wasn't renewed in a neighborhood where investors are buying properties.

"I don't feel like it's my fault, but yeah, of course, it's clear we're letting them down," Stacy Downey, the executive director of the pantry, told CBS News.

"Rock and a hard place"

The nation's most overvalued cities aren't the usual suspects. After Boise, the second-most overpriced market is Sherman-Denison, Texas, near the Dallas-Fort Worth area, where homes are valued 60% above what fundamentals would suggest. Its population has grown by double-digits for two decades as people relocated to Texas from other regions. The third most overpriced city is Muskegon, Michigan, where housing is 59% overvalued, Moody's found.

Homebuyers are "stuck between a rock and a hard place," especially first-time purchasers, noted Jeff Tucker, senior economist at Zillow.

On the one side are surging home prices and mortgage rates, but on the flip side are skyrocketing rents, he pointed out. The monthly rent in the nation's 50 largest cities rose an average of 14% in 2021, adding to the financial pressure facing many Americans. That's fueling an interest in buying because purchasers can at least lock in a stable monthly mortgage payment, even if they'll be paying more than a year ago, Tucker noted.

The nation's high housing valuations are raising questions about whether the housing market is facing another bubble, like the one in 2006 that fueled the Great Recession. Yet such concerns are likely misplaced, Tucker said.

"There are a lot of stark differences with the mid-2000s," he said. "For one thing, rents are rising very rapidly, and the credit of all the recent homebuyers is really strong."

That might protect against a repeat of the housing bust, but it may not assuage homebuyers' fears of overpaying. House-hunters should examine their budgets to figure out if they can afford the purchase, with the guiding principle being to spend no more than one-third of gross income on housing costs, including mortgage, property tax, insurance and maintenance, experts say.

Tucker also recommends asking whether a prospective buyer would be happy to live in the home for several years.

"The classic rule of thumb is five years" to hold onto a property, he said. "If the answers to those questions are yes, then I think there is a good argument for forging ahead to buy that house."

He added, "The other important question is 'Where else would I be living, and how much would that cost?'"


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/home-house-prices-mortgage-rates-moodys-mark-zandi/


....


There is a school of thought which claims real estate can serve as an inflation protected asset due to market prices scaling to match or exceed inflation. The APR on home loans can also appreciate at a rate slower than inflation if 8% is maintained. Which could actually make the loan cheaper over time.

Moody's by contrast is bearish on real estate and recommends waiting a few years before buying. There was also a big property tax hike for the united states in 2021, which makes buying and HODLing real estate more difficult. Immigration numbers suggest demand for living space should continue to increase, which could drive markets higher.

Its difficult to get accurate predictions and information, in ways we're in uncharted waters and no one is really certain what to expect.
1052  Economy / Economics / Ukraine Crisis Reveals the Folly of Organic Farming on: May 12, 2022, 11:12:19 PM
Quote
As food prices skyrocket, the world needs to admit it can’t live without modern, efficient agriculture

The energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine disabused many politicians of the notion that the world could make a swift transition to green energy powered by solar, wind and wishful thinking. As food prices skyrocket and the conflict threatens a global food crisis, we need to face another unpopular reality: Organic farming is ineffective, land hungry and very expensive, and it would leave billions hungry if it were embraced world-wide.

For years, politicians and the chattering classes have argued that organic farming is the responsible way to feed the world. The European Union pushed last year for members roughly to triple organic farming by 2030. Influential nonprofits have long promoted organic farming to developing nations, causing fragile countries like Sri Lanka to invest in such methods. In the West, many consumers have been won over: About half the population of Germany believes that organic farming can fight global hunger.

The rise in food prices—buoyed by increased fertilizer, energy and transport costs—amid the conflict in Ukraine has exposed inherent flaws in the argument for organic farming. Because organic agriculture shirks many of the scientific advancements that have allowed farmers to increase crop yields, it’s inherently less efficient than conventional farming. Research has conclusively shown that organic farming produces less food per acre than conventional agriculture. Moreover, organic farming rotates fields in and out of use more often than conventional farming, which can rely on synthetic fertilizer and pesticides to maintain fertility and keep away pests.

Taking this and the lower production in a given field into account, organic farming produces between 29% to 44% less food than conventional methods. It therefore requires as much as 78% more land than conventional agriculture and the food produced costs 50% more—all while generating no measurable increase in human health or animal welfare.

This higher cost is untenable in developing nations, and it was irresponsible for activists in wealthy economies to push inefficient farming methods on them. Nowhere is this tragedy more obvious than Sri Lanka, where the imposition of organics has been calamitous. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa ran for election in 2019 promising a transition to organic food production. This policy produced nothing but misery. The eschewing of fertilizer caused rice production to drop by 20% in the first six months after the switch to organic farming was implemented. Last winter, farmers predicted that tea yields could fall by as much as 40%. Food prices rose; the cost of vegetables quintupled. Protests finally forced Sri Lanka mostly to give up its organic foray this past winter, too late to rescue much of this year’s crop.

Sri Lanka’s example underscores the irresponsibility of organics. Organic farming rejects synthetic nitrogen fertilizer, but there is currently far from enough organic nitrogen to feed the world. It turns out that synthetic nitrogen is directly responsible for feeding four billion people, more than half the world’s population.

Wealthy consumers can take the related price increases, but many poor households in the developing world spend more than half their income on food. Every 1% hike in food prices tips another 10 million people into global poverty. Advocating for global organics implicitly means suggesting that billions should forgo food.

It is easier to ignore these inconvenient details when food shortages aren’t in the headlines, but the war in Ukraine has put world hunger on everyone’s mind. Russia and Ukraine normally provide more than a quarter of the world’s exported wheat and significant supplies of corn, vegetable oil and barley. Almost a third of global potash, a potassium-rich product crucial for plant growth, comes from Russia and Belarus and most is likely subject to sanctions. Russia also produces 8% of the world’s nitrogen, the price of which had already more than tripled over the two years before the invasion. Most nitrogen is made from fossil fuels, and many factories have had to stop production as the pandemic and climate policies have raised the price of nonrenewable energy. And it doesn’t help food prices that the costs of transport have more than doubled since the pandemic began.

The result will be devastation. Rising fertilizer prices could decrease rice yields by 10% in the next season, leading to a drop in food production equivalent to what could feed half a billion people.

Policy makers and nonprofits must urgently focus on ways to produce more food for the world’s poorest at less cost. Genetic engineering, better pest management and more irrigation would go a long way toward increasing yields. Ramping up the production of artificial fertilizer, as well as considering removing regulation that makes its fossil-fuel inputs more expensive, will also help. These simple, common-sense approaches can curb price hikes, avoid hunger and even help the environment. Agriculture already uses 40% of the ice-free land on the earth. Increasing its efficiency will allow us to keep more land wild and natural.

It’s time to let go of this self-indulgent obsession with organics and focus on scientific and effective approaches that can feed the planet.



https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-crisis-reveals-the-folly-of-organic-farming-global-hunger-crops-food-prices-energy-11651869179


....


The following seems to imply sanctions on russia should be removed to reduce the cost of natural gas used to produce chemical based agricultural fertilizers.

Quote
Ramping up the production of artificial fertilizer, as well as considering removing regulation that makes its fossil-fuel inputs more expensive, will also help.

Left with no other options, the world will have no alternatives aside from organic farming to turn to.

Sanctions on natural gas could also carry a potential to price monsanto GMOs out of many farmer's budgets.

Is there a clear cut and obvious solution to these issues society faces.

We know that synthetic fertilizers can scale production. Can organic farming scale as well?
1053  Economy / Economics / Re: Ukraine has launched a global initiative United24 to raise funds on: May 12, 2022, 09:58:19 PM
I suspect ukraine may soon have no shortage of funding.

Quote
U.S. House passes $40 billion Ukraine package to provide military, humanitarian aid

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/11/house-passes-40-billion-ukraine-package-to-provide-military-humanitarian-aid.html

Strangely enough the european union appears completely absent from the conflict.

Have not seen many war updates. Everything is being kept quiet. Russia appears to be refining its hypersonic missile technology under real world conditions.

The logistics of russian T-90 tanks costing $1.2 million versus switchblade drones costing $6,000 doesn't appear the best scenario for russia.
1054  Economy / Economics / Re: Constant defamation of crypto on: May 11, 2022, 11:32:18 PM
Perhaps on some level, people fear change. They fear abandoning horses for automobiles. Outhouses for indoor toilets. This fear of change extends to new emerging trends like bitcoin and crypto.

It took 10 years for sailors to mass adopt the explanation of vitamin C deficiency causing scurvy. Even when all of the available evidence and documentation points to a single cause. There is still considerable fear and controversy associated with it.

Even if bitcoin and crypto were a perfect and flawless technology with no disadvantages. It would still take people time to overcome their fear of change and adopt it.
1055  Economy / Economics / Re: Are Quantum Computing Initiatives Behind Bitcoin's Latest Downtrend? on: May 11, 2022, 11:00:45 PM
People always go on the hunt for extravagant ideas in search of answers when bitcoin jumps around. However the solution is usually much more simple - that bitcoin, maybe even crypto in general, is more closely tied to general economic trends than people would like. The stock markets have been trending down in the last week and there is continuing pressure since inflation is so high, that is a much more likely correlation as it's shown similar action before.



General economic trends and natural market mechanics are historically known and documented. Many experienced investors have commented on the erratic and unusual nature of US stocks over the past 20 years. Crypto has also deviated from its historical norms since it became traded by institutional firms.

There is a legitimate explanation for current bitcoin and stock market movement that I've posted on this forum for many years. To understand it people must learn basics of asset trading. The fundamentals which say the biggest traders and holders of an asset, with the biggest liquidity can move prices as they wish.
1056  Economy / Economics / Re: Fed raises rates, the biggest hike in two decades, to fight inflation on: May 11, 2022, 10:45:33 PM

Rate hikes make fiat based investments less attractive. Increasing demand for alternatives.

Lol! Who said this? Rate hikes are always a blessing for the fiat based investors because they are going to get more interest. It's a pain for the borrowers only because they will have to pay additional money towards their repayment of loans.

Rate hikes actually decreases the attractiveness of alternative investments like bitcoin. Because people can't stand much volatility, are likely to move to fixed income plans based on fiat.



You mentioned it being a pain for borrowers only. How many corporations and publicly traded companies regularly use credit and loans from banks? This places additional strain on credit and loan dependent entities who are represented in stock market averages. Who comprise the majority of GDP statistics. Its an additional difficulty for doing business in the country that is stacked on top of supply chain shortages and rising fuel costs.

Businesses and stock options declining under credit restrictions introduced by higher interest rates, make bitcoin and crypto alternatives a more appealing investment.

Higher rates also encourage capital flight and investment outside the country.

(The only gains made by higher interest rates are banks having a better margin.)

BTW who is moving to fixed income plans based on fiat? None of them come close to delivering greater ROI in contrast to inflation. None of them deliver returns as high as crypto based alternatives did. Celsius network paid out 10% to 20% interest rates on accounts, before it became available to accredited investors only.
1057  Economy / Economics / Re: Historic Moment for Real Estate as House is Sold for 3 Bitcoins in Portugal on: May 10, 2022, 11:51:56 PM
Some have said real estate is a good inflation protected asset to invest in:

How To Profit From MASSIVE Inflation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPQ0pttjinI



Property taxes in the united states are being hiked which makes this difficult:

Quote
Homeowners Experience Largest Property Tax Hike in Four Years

“Homeowners across the United States in 2020 got hit with the largest average property tax hike in the last four years, a sign that the cost of running local governments and public school systems rose well past the rate of inflation. The increase was twice what it was in 2019,” said Todd Teta, Chief Product Officer for ATTOM Data Solutions. “Fortunately for recent homebuyers, they have mortgages with super-low interest rates that somewhat contain the cost of homeownership. But the latest tax numbers speak loud and clear about the continuing pressure on both recent and longtime homeowners to support the rising cost of public services.”

https://dsnews.com/news/04-08-2021/homeowners-experience-largest-property-tax-hike-in-four-years

Buying real estate in portugal and abroad should help to avoid property tax hikes.
1058  Economy / Economics / Fed raises rates, the biggest hike in two decades, to fight inflation on: May 10, 2022, 11:36:37 PM
Quote
WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, the most aggressive step yet in its fight against a 40-year high in inflation.

“Inflation is much too high and we understand the hardship it is causing. We’re moving expeditiously to bring it back down,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said during a news conference, which he opened with an unusual direct address to “the American people.” He noted the burden of inflation on lower-income people, saying, “we’re strongly committed to restoring price stability.”

That likely will mean, according to the chairman’s comments, multiple 50-basis point rate hikes ahead, though likely nothing more aggressive than that.

The federal funds rate sets how much banks charge each other for short-term lending, but also is tied to a variety of adjustable-rate consumer debt.

Along with the move higher in rates, the central bank indicated it will begin reducing asset holdings on its $9 trillion balance sheet. The Fed had been buying bonds to keep interest rates low and money flowing through the economy during the pandemic, but the surge in prices has forced a dramatic rethink in monetary policy.

Markets were prepared for both moves but nonetheless have been volatile throughout the year. Investors have relied on the Fed as an active partner in making sure markets function well, but the inflation surge has necessitated tightening.

Wednesday’s rate hike will push the federal funds rate to a range of 0.75%-1%, and current market pricing has the rate rising to 2.75%-3% by year’s end, according to CME Group data.

Stocks leaped higher following the announcement while Treasury yields backed off their earlier highs.

Markets now expect the central bank to continue raising rates aggressively in the coming months. Powell, said only that moves of 50 basis points “should be on the table at the next couple of meetings” but he seemed to discount the likelihood of the Fed getting more hawkish.

“Seventy-five basis points is not something the committee is actively considering,” Powell said, despite market pricing that had leaned heavily towards the Fed hiking by three-quarters of a percentage point in June.

“The American economy is very strong and well-positioned to handle tighter monetary policy,” he said, adding that he foresees a “soft or softish” landing for the economy despite tighter monetary policy.

The plan outlined Wednesday will see the balance sheet reduction happen in phases, with the Fed allowing a capped level of proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off each month while reinvesting the rest. Starting June 1, the plan will see $30 billion of Treasurys and $17.5 billion on mortgage-backed securities roll off. After three months, the cap for Treasurys will increase to $60 billion and $35 billion for mortgages.

Those numbers were mostly in line with discussions at the last Fed meeting, as described in minutes from the session, though there were some expectations that the increase in the caps would be more gradual.

Wednesday’s statement noted that economic activity “edged down in the first quarter” but noted that “household spending and business fixed investment remained strong.” Inflation “remains elevated.”

Finally, the statement addressed the Covid outbreak in China and the government’s attempts to address the situation.

“In addition, Covid-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks,” the statement said.

“No surprises on our end,” said Collin Martin, fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab. “We’re a little bit less aggressive on our expectations than the markets are. We do think another 50 basis point increase in June seems likely. … We think inflation is close to peaking. If that shows some signs of peaking and declines later in the year, that gives the Fed a little leeway to slow down on such an aggressive pace.”

Though some Federal Open Market Committee members had pushed for bigger rate increases, Wednesday’s move received unanimous support.

The 50-basis-point increase is the biggest increase the rate-setting FOMC has instituted since May 2000. Back then, the Fed was fighting the excesses of the early dotcom era and the internet bubble. This time around, the circumstances are quite a bit different.

As the pandemic crisis hit in early 2020, the Fed slashed its benchmark funds rate to a range of 0%-0.25% and instituted an aggressive program of bond buying that more than doubled the size of its balance sheet. At the same time, Congress approved a series of bills that injected more than $5 trillion of fiscal spending into the economy.

Those policy moves were followed by clogged supply chains and surging demand as economies reopened. Inflation over a 12-month period rose 8.5% in March, as gauged by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index.

Fed officials for months dismissed the inflation surge as “transitory” then had to rethink that position as the price pressures did not relent.

For the first time in more than three years, the FOMC in March approved a 25-basis-point increase, indicating then that the funds rate could rise to just 1.9% this year. Since then, though, multiple statements from central bankers pointed to a rate well north of that. Wednesday’s move marked the first time the Fed has boosted rates at consecutive meetings since June 2006.

Stocks have tumbled through this year, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average off nearly 9% and bond prices falling sharply as well. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which moves opposite price, was around 3% Wednesday, a level it hasn’t seen since late 2018.

When the Fed was last this aggressive with rate hikes, it took the funds rate to 6.5% in early 2000, but was forced to retreat just seven months later. With the combination of a recession already underway plus the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the Fed rapidly cut, eventually slashing the funds rate all the way down to 1% by mid-2003, shortly after the Iraq invasion.

Some economists worry the Fed could face the same predicament this time — failing to act on inflation when it was surging, then tightening in the face of slowing growth. GDP fell 1.4% in the first quarter, though it was held back by factors such as rising Covid cases and a slowing inventory build that are expected to ease through the year.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/04/fed-raises-rates-by-half-a-percentage-point-the-biggest-hike-in-two-decades-to-fight-inflation.html


....


Some are saying rate hikes could be related to bitcoin's latest downtrend.

Rate hikes make fiat based investments less attractive. Increasing demand for alternatives. Which in turn raises demand for bitcoin and crypto based assets. Rate hikes could have a positive net effect on bitcoin's price. For reasons similar to high inflation in the us dollar or euro causing many to seek bitcoin as an inflation protected asset.

The fed proposed rate hikes when Trump was acting President. They claimed it would help prevent the US economy from overheating. There are so many different ideas and competing theories about what rate hikes do and what the motive for them is, it is difficult to have a clear perspective of what is happening.
1059  Economy / Economics / How Pablo Escobar Hid His Billions From the FBI on: May 10, 2022, 11:14:23 PM
How Pablo Escobar Hid His Billions From the FBI
It's not easy hiding billions of dollars in drug money from the FBI, so how do cartels do it? Check out today's insane new video to learn how Pablo Escobar and other drug kingpins have kept their money hidden from the FBI for decades!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V97apjV8zUc



Good historical overview and background expositionary information on how drug cartels launder their ill gotten gains. I had not realized gold and precious metals markets were prime targets for money laundering. A decent percentage of their operations also appear to have been inside jobs. Where they had someone in the financial industry help them setup deals to launder capital.

The last minute of the clip attempts to validate ideas on how money laundering in crypto might occur. I think cash, precious metals and other assets would be preferable for money laundering due to their lack of digital logging and paper trail. It is also interesting that binance is listed in their charts and graphs while coinbase is omitted.

Interesting watch for anyone interested in the darker nature of money.
1060  Economy / Economics / Re: Are Quantum Computing Initiatives Behind Bitcoin's Latest Downtrend? on: May 10, 2022, 09:32:28 PM
I can't claim to know others plans for the future.

One possible scenario is the US government could mandate new cryptographic standards which are "quantum compliant". They could petition bitcoin developers to replace BTC's elliptic curve signatures with a new encryption algorithm which was created by the government working in concert with intelligence agencies like the FBI, CIA and NSA. To prepare bitcoin for the coming "quantum computer" era.

Existing standards like SSL and SSH could also be replaced with new "quantum compliant" encryption.

People may not grasp the significance of this initially. But if they thought about it, they might realize it could carry implications depending on how its implemented.
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