Looking deeper into your doc (and if you are not using anything different) I'd suggest a quick script for Google Spreadsheet that can be useful for BTC exchange rate. On one of my recent works I've added the script "MtGox Bitcoin Last Value" from the "tools" dropdown menu, then simply adding the function =getBitcoinLastValueFromMtGox() I got automatically the price in dollars of 1 BTC  That's very interesting! I wonder if it works for other currencies. So much to respond to here! I didn't know that the manufacturing wasn't the problem. But if this is the case what is holding them back? Is there a link to anyone from the company talking about this, or other proof that they have the chips made.. just can't figure out how to get the home pick-up for UPS to work? Wish I had time to do a comprehensive check, I'll get back to this ASAP. |
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Whats the differennce between a patriot and a terrorist? The patriot won. The terrorist lost. This. The winner writes the history book and assigns the labels. Defining by tactics is not useful. As repulsive as I find it for someone to hijack a civilian plane and fly it into a building full of civilians, it is just as ugly a tactic as dropping a 70/30 mix of incendiary bombs / anti-personnel bombs on a city built of bamboo and paper. Once war has been become the answer, it is foolish to fight with anything less than everything you have. "Rules of Engagement" are only justified if they serve to further speed victory. The third, and final, victory by the Romans over Carthage should be the model by which we fight wars. If we are unwilling to take war to that level we should not be going to war. Well the tactic defines itself. I think the problem here is that we've been told that if terrorism exists we must fight it. Many people will proudly call their self a terrorist. It's just a term for a method of war. What is sad is that the US doesn't get branded in the same way. Know what a double tap is? Dropping a bomb on a target then waiting for help to come and bombing them. It's a war crime, and my country does it constantly. Same with signature strikes.. just as disgusting. So I'm not saying there is nothing to your argument, yes history is written by the winner. I think we need to call more people terrorists, not less |
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I don't call people opposite my side terrorists. I do not like that word at all.
I think there is a time for it. Yes it is definitely misused often. Terrorism is not an accidental thing though. If a person did not intend for the image of what they did to live on in the memories of their victims and cause suffering, then they are not a terrorist. Asymmetrical warfare will always play out this way. Soon there won't be such a thing on any sort of large scale. As technology comes at us faster it will become easier for weaker states to come by WMDs. Then we're stuck back in the cold era, mutual assured destruction. Whose button finger slips first is a fun game! Ooops! Found out that it takes a lot more security to hold in those bio weapons. Wow how did I get there.. I must really hate my birthday lol.. |
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Right, but the main person that I am watching out for isn't the company, it's the consumer. In this case I'm having a hard time figuring out how to make it fair. The company says they will ship in 9-10 weeks. The company has said a lot of things about times, and none of them have bared out. In the last few weeks there was a personal announcement about sample chips coming out in a week from Yifu. It took, what two, three weeks just to ship? How can I claim that a person will make an ROI of such and such when the proof and general consensus is otherwise? There have been so many companies that have come on claiming this and that out the first day, people asking why aren't I putting them on the list.
Here is my method for gathering data:
First look at what the claims made by the company are, sifting for inconsistencies and warning signs. Then I'll generally check through Coin Canary and talk to Operatr about them.
If the company has been thoroughly tried and the general consensus is that they are at least up to par with basic expectations I'll put them on and watch. There are companies right now that I feel good about, but I'm checking first. Just announcing doesn't get you on. In the same way just saying something doesn't necessarily compel me to post it. I'm thinking of this as a consumer watch group rather than an aggregation of company data. Perhaps I'm not being clear on that, there is probably a way to change the title.
Though I could see how splitting columns to something like "Company stats" "Adjusted stats" or something that wasn't confusing might work...
So I guess by objective, I meant that I'm trying to take all available data and post it without being attached. I would like to know what others think is a reasonable estimate on lead time for chips bought today would be. Maybe November is a bit much, I would be willing to compromise if you have a compelling case. I thought 3 months was going easy on them since they are WAY past that on their other orders. How are they going to catch up?
I want the opinion base to be as broad as possible. This discussion is very valuable to me, and if you or anyone else in the community would like to continue it I'm always open for ideas.
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I pushed all the companies requiring Avalon chips back a couple months. There is no reason to believe that 9-10wks is a reasonable delivery time, when there are people waiting much longer than that. If people start confirming that their chips came in, and it looks like the lead time is fixed, I'll change this.
The spreadsheet should be objectively based on the manufacturers advertised lead time. Changing information is personal opinion, highly subjective, misleading, and does not give an accurate portrayal of the companies. A column could be added to describe the likelihood a company will deliver on time, but arbitrarily changing lead times is dishonest, regardless of the intentions. Additionaly, the prices of companies which are based on opensource designs are not being represented equally, as each is offering a different level of finish. Assembly is not necessarily the same thing from each company. Some are offering parts only, some parts and accessories, some fully assembled units with cases and power supplies. That being said, thank you for taking the time to work on this. I actually agree with this. I tried to keep the table as objective as possible in the manner you describe. I'm adding BFL back in today or tomorrow for this very reason. I took them off for more signaling reason's than any belief that they will never deliver. Unfortunately the only signaling in pushing back Avalon's time is that it makes the people dependent on them look less competitive. However, I did not move them back for the same reason. They were moved back because from the information I have found, it seems quite unreasonable to believe that 9-10 weeks is but a remote possibility for the people unlucky enough to not have made an order yet. Though I really should go change the lead time for companies that are selling their own chips in miners... That could happen even before the 9-10 week said lead time.. wow I just realized I need to go ask everyone what they think their own personal lead time is based on what their chip order is. Well again thanks, it's not fair to put everyone together in this way, maybe I can get away with just putting everyone who is selling full miners with a preorder of chips a month out. I never intended to say that people who already have preorders wouldn't get their chips until November, better go fix it.. Awesome work!  Thanks, I'm trying to help people figure out what's going on so we can have more decentralized hashing |
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So if you self-describe as an anarchist, the good news is that we're already living in an anarchist society! Of course, the bad news is that ... we're already living in an anarchist society.
lol |
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Oh good, for a minute there I thought I was going to have to be one of the test canaries!
Wow great analysis on asic-technologies
Where did you find RCM-miners metatron?
Any idea about Bitmine.ch? They look pretty good, I can't see any reason not to add them to my list, what do you think Op?
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Yes, Stochastic, we bomb them they bomb us. Good plan. This has been happening for a long time, and this 'Axis of Evil' you talk about has been attacked by what they see as "Evil Western Forces" for thousands of years. This seems like an intractable situation. If people stopped listening to power and followed their own interest this would never happen.
War should be that I can not stop myself from arming myself and seeking out my enemy, because I personally have a reason that compels me. Go to war for anything less and you are a mercenary.
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Lol.. it's not creepy, at least not for the bitcoin part.  |
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I agree it is troubling. I'm not under the impression that they keep them in solitary for long periods of time, though. The interrogator is usually quite friendly and spending a large amount of time with them. I don't think this is perfect, maybe one day we'll just be able to scan a person and know everything they have stuck in their memory. I can imagine a time, though where I would agree that it would be worth using this type of interrogation, if done properly.. but if you're point is that solitary confinement is worse torture than what people go through that we actually call torture, I totally agree.
Probably easier on a person to just kill them then to put them in a hole for years. Not sure which I'd choose.
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Yeah, I hear them say that all the time. I never hear anyone but politicians and generals saying that they got good info from torture.
Think about it, you're going to say whatever you think they want you to say if you're broken. If they can't break you
Situation:
A. You have info and they can't break you
B. You have info and they do break you
C. You have no info and they can't break you
D. You have no info and they do break you
Conclusion:
A. Lies
B. Lies mixed with truth
C. Lies
D. Lies
Even in the best possible situation you don't get much at all. The little pieces of info that have been gathered are corrupted.
The best way to get information from a person is to befriend them. I know it seems strange, but this is the main tactic used in successful interrogation. The relationship is still manipulative and unnatural, but being that the interrogator is usually their only link to humanity the connection is formed fairly quickly.
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The patriot is the one that tortures the terrorist. That's a good idea, violate all the conventions so next time our troops get caught they're tortured too. Torture is a foolish attempt at retribution. Any information specialist will say that it's practically worthless when it comes to getting information from a person. One other thing, some people are acting like all terrorists are of one faith or ideology. This is not borne out by the constant shootings in the US. Only difference is that they aren't branded a terrorist, because like it's been mentioned they are of the wrong skin color. |
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Your work is anyway awesome, and very helpful for all of those that "rush for the hash" thinking that bitcoinx is enough. One question: when you compute the yearly ROI, the 12months are being calculated "from today" or today+delivery(*diff percentage increase)*12 months? In other words: when I read that the Saturn will make 300ish BTC in 12 months, the analyzed period is today+12 or october+12? Thanks October + 12 You're right. I re-checked calculation in https://bitclockers.com/calc, with monthly diff change of 22% (that is 9% on each retarget) and Metabank 120Gh earns about 300 btc first year, if lead time is september. Retargeting at 18% (46 per month) gives 110 btc. Retargeting at 21% (55 per month) gives 87 btc. That must be without power cost? Confused about KNCMiner numbers though. It offers less GH/$ than MetaBank, and delivers later, but for some reason the ROI is like 5x higher? Maybe it's explained in the 8 pages that I don't want to read, if so, I apologize.
KnC may be offering less in Gh/$, but is promising much more of those Gh (350,000)! And that's what counts in this race - more Gh in the start (first months) means early 'break even' and better ROI. Sorry, but that post doesn't make any sense. It isnt total hash rate that determines break even, but a mix of cost per hash rate, date released, and power cost and looking at those, bitfury should do better. It is true that the to ROI is in bitcoins (which is s little strange, you should change it to percent of origional investment) which would naturally benefit larger products, but bitfury still shouldnt be negative. Made sense to me. The more hashing power you have while the difficulty is low the better your machine will do. The problem is that I had the power cost from the old FPGA still on there. So yeah, you're right they shouldn't have had a negative, it was just an extremely high power cost. I wasn't able to find the power cost estimate on the new machine so I foolishly forgot to change the stats I had. At the moment I have it listed as a 500w machine, but it could be even less with these chips. Thanks for keeping me on track again guys Power consumption is 0.7W per Gh/s Wow, 170w machine that can do 120GH? |
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Wouldn't this response be different if everyone waiting to buy in could actually enter the market? Or maybe they'd just lose some money |
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You get the email this morning from asic-technologies.com? They really got their act together. I hope people are doing their research. I haven't heard anything new about them really, except what they say. Any updates? Operatr is probly extremely busy at the moment, but if anyone else notice anything useful I think it would be good to post it here.
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Confused about KNCMiner numbers though. It offers less GH/$ than MetaBank, and delivers later, but for some reason the ROI is like 5x higher? Maybe it's explained in the 8 pages that I don't want to read, if so, I apologize.
KnC may be offering less in Gh/$, but is promising much more of those Gh (350,000)! And that's what counts in this race - more Gh in the start (first months) means early 'break even' and better ROI. Sorry, but that post doesn't make any sense. It isnt total hash rate that determines break even, but a mix of cost per hash rate, date released, and power cost and looking at those, bitfury should do better. It is true that the to ROI is in bitcoins (which is s little strange, you should change it to percent of origional investment) which would naturally benefit larger products, but bitfury still shouldnt be negative. Made sense to me. The more hashing power you have while the difficulty is low the better your machine will do. The problem is that I had the power cost from the old FPGA still on there. So yeah, you're right they shouldn't have had a negative, it was just an extremely high power cost. I wasn't able to find the power cost estimate on the new machine so I foolishly forgot to change the stats I had. At the moment I have it listed as a 500w machine, but it could be even less with these chips. Thanks for keeping me on track again guys |
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Gah. You don't know what a slavering maniac is until you see someone blocked at every turn trying to buy BTC during periods of high regulation and low adherence!
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The smartest people here don't waste their time with sophomoric conspiracy theories or endless guessing of tomorrows price. They are generally busy making things happen, as opposed to watching things happen then struggling to understand.
Not necessarily. Smart people very easily get caught up in silly logic games and arguments. It takes a bit of wisdom to realize that your time could better be... oh wait |
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Yeah I've been thinking along these lines lately Elwar. People talk about the free market, but this is the free market. The regulations were tacitly chosen. Now the general public has been tricked into many silly things that we never would have given permission to, but at the same point there is talk about responsibility. Who let it get this way? Everyone... and everyone has to take responsibility for that.
Great rant Elwar!
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Wikipedia:
Terrorism is the systematic use of terror, often violent, especially as a means of coercion.
A patriot is someone who feels a strong support for his or her country.
If a person thinks that committing an act of terrorism will help their country then they may be considered patriotic. I don't go for the either or argument. Patriotism generally leads to negative outcomes, this being one of them.
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