This was a very similar situation that we faced at the 4130 resistance area . If another short squeeze takes place (which can happen out of nowhere) price can easily see 6K which presents the next obstacle for this market. The fact that the general consensus is extremely bearish further adds to the argument in favor of higher prices rather than a deep retrace. The crowd is usually wrong (which is the foundation of most forex broker's business models).

In summary, there are NO absolutes in market timing. Good technical analysis presents possibilities and probabilities, not precision. And good perspective comes from considering variables that are not visible on a chart. Without this basic understanding of market mechanics, it is very easy to be conditioned by the irrational sentiment of the herd. Our objective is to detect structural changes around potential turning points in order to get a read on how likely forced order flow is to come next (short squeeze or long liquidations). And at the moment, AS LONG AS price can stay above the 4930 level, the chances of squeezing to 6K are still a reasonable possibility, even in the face of a major resistance zone (yes it is confusing and conflicting, but that is the market).

I will be the first to say that I do not buy into resistance areas, I prefer to buy into support areas. Since the beginning of April, Bitcoin's short squeeze has pushed the price into a major resistance area that I have been pointing out to our followers countless times. The 5200 to 5800 area is a proportional resistance zone relative to the 6K level. From my perspective, the current resistance increases the likelihood of a retrace of lower levels, BUT that does not mean it will go there. Even with the current double top formation attempting to establish itself.

Here is what you need to realize: Price is lingering at a resistance. Weak markets, even temporarily weak DO NOT LINGER at resistance levels, they sell off quickly. The amount of time that Bitcoin has been fluctuating above 5K is about TWO WEEKS, all while short interest is biased to the high side. Not a good recipe for a short in my opinion. All these leveraged shorts piling in, yet no major supports are breaking. The 4930 to 5K area, is still nicely intact. Obviously the buying pressure continues to absorb the aggressive supply.

In my opinion it doesn't mean much, and I think it play a minimal role, which none, to anything. I'm pretty sure we will go above 6,000 USD - We have just has an accumulation phase - we haven't had any selling pressure even though the big spike.

We have the whales who clearly want us to go to 6,000 USD and above due to the huge liquidity pool, where they have the opportunity to stop hunt and squeeze, and make become richer. Also the fact, that BTC will geta comeback in the media, which will attract retail investors, who have bought the top (5th wave).

Hereafter we will go below 6k again after we have been crusing around 6k for a while.

I agree, BTC needs to regain support and break over the long term trend line. I also think, however, that it may retest the 200 and 50 day moving averages as well as the previous breakout around $4150. If BTC bounces off the moving averages and/or bounces off the previous bottom then it won't be long before the price gets back on top of the trend line rather than riding it from underneath. This doesn't do the day traders much good, but for long term hodler these prices below the trend are a gift.

 I have a question for you, why do you think price structure respects trendlines so well? Is it a guideline the big traders trade on or is it made by simple retail traders trading the trends? Why do you think the price respects these touches so well?

We're currently long right now but are prepared for a rejection to enter into a short trade. Watching this trend line as well right now!

Even as a permabull I agree, we're so close and may be at our initial test of the upper 5k-6k range. I'm fighting fomo hard on some of these alt pull backs even though I'm confident we will get another opp to buy BTC in the 4ks. Let's see.

Even though I'm on the sidelines right now I feel literally no pressure to buy. All I have to do is wait for BTC to fail its first test of 6K if it even makes it that far on this volume.
At a minimum I get to buy back right where we are now and most likely somewhere under 5K. Still waiting a bit out if this is really the next bull.

I can totally see a retest of 5200, but every dip is being bought so I think it will only be there for a very short amount of time.

If we go to 5k, we would be breaking this support and i'll be stopped out. I've been trading that support with a lot of success.

Yes the rally seems to be running out of steam. Of course it could go higher, but it's getting riskier and risker to hold onto a long up here. How much short-term upside potential is there vs. the risk of a large drop/retracement?

I did some research the last days on circulating supply. I found that Bitcoins true circulating supply is between 9-13.5 million, not 17.6 Million (depending on whether you count coins like Winklewii's, etc., that has stated that they never will sell). That means that the cryptomarket cap, as counted on CMC, is much lower than reported, and it also means that Bitcoin dominance is between 25 and 38%, not 51%.

So the valuation of every coin should be much higher.

Last bubble run was definitely centered around ETH and ICO’s. ETH looks crazy weak right now and I don’t think we will have another ICO hype year like 2017 ever again. So, this next bubble would have to be because of BTC right?

Crypto will never be organic. It pumps and dumps irrationally. In 2017, barely anyone in this sub was shorting and those who did would get absolutely shitted on by the group. It’s interesting how times have changed. I think there will come a time that shorting will become obsolete again. Unless the same bots are running the markets since 2014, I don’t see why we need to drop one more time to $3600 or lower.

Edit: Bitcoin will keep going up until everyone in this group is long and bullish. Right now, our daily is dead. Once it is filled with ignorant, bullish one liners, we will know it’s pullback time.

The worldwide trend for interest in Bitcoin is still on the downtrend and has been ever since late 2017.

Are you expecting a single whale or group of whales to just keep pushing the price up in hopes of that sparking a new bull run and thus real organic search interest in Bitcoin?

Even if that were the case, cartels very very rarely work out for all involved over the long term.

I think we still have a ways to drop and stagnate before real organic interest and buying starts to creep in.

We're still painting a massive bearish divergence on the daily with decreasing volume. Don't let the fundamentals escape you.

 The absence of sellers (and/or shorters?) is remarkable. On the 3d chart (Bitstamp), a full 16(!) out of the last 19 volume candles have been green, including the latest three. I readily concede that this is a reflection of the fact that a bottom was likely made at 3200ish.

Nevertheless, in view of the steep rise that we have recently seen, and i conjunction with sharply falling volumes, this should signal temporarily overbought conditions IMHO. One should think that the odds are stacked for some sort of correction at this point, but then this is Bitcoin, and I would not be surprised if we reach 6000 before any meaningful reversal occurs.

If we close this weekly green in one more hour, be ready. No one knows what the fuck can happen once we pass $6k. I’ve been trembling with excitement like a crackhead all day. There are so many people waiting on the sidelines right now because of the 2014 fractal. If we rocket past $6k, and those $3.6k pullback ideas are put to rest, we will have a great fomo. Mark my words, the fomo will be legendary once we pass $6k.

Edit: This forum is more dead, right now, than our $2.9k China Ban low in 2017. So much money sitting on the sidelines right now, I giggle thinking about it.

Pragmatism says wait. Irrational exuberance is at a high. That is when markets get crushed. Reality is this was pumped by one entity and nothing fundamentally has changed. Support after the massive fabricated pump feels like retail fomo.

I am in the same boat. As others, I am impressed by the fact that once again the reversal appears to have been stopped almost immediately.

On the other hand, the price has clearly failed to make higher highs, and major alts including LTC continue their correction. Is Bitcoin simply the more inert mass and slower to respond, or is money flowing from LTC (other alts) into BTC? Who is in denial, those who see this rally reach further highs or those who have been claiming a reversal is imminent?

I have no clue what is going on, but I do feel that if and when sellers/shorters regain some confidence at long last, the slump could be painful. "If you panic (at 5200ish/Bitstamp?), panic first"?

I guess more likely a pump to 6.2k with a correction back down to 4.5k-4.2k after said pump over the course of the next few months, until the 365 day mark of the next halving. Could even see another double golden cross with a death cross in the middle.

Historically, the first golden cross in a market period had always caused a instant dump

Nothing else gives any thrill haha. How can you not love all these crazy booms and busts and get addicted to it ?

It's the best investment of our lifetimes. The big wealth transfer from the baby boombers to the millenials. We don't have any interest any more on our money in the banks, but we have bitcoin.

But never forget: My #1 rule is do not be emotionally attached to any investment ! as most in the crypto space seem to be. The trend is short term bearish now. If we break the recent high structure i will be a buyer. Not now.