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5041  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 23, 2014, 04:19:24 PM
yay to the US of A!

5042  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 23, 2014, 04:17:31 PM
cypherdoc I think you're maybe even over-analyzing why dollars beat gold as money. I suspect all it took was a new generation born into dollars not backed by anything. I'm middle aged and never was under any illusion fiat was backed by anything as I grew up, I never even saw gold in coin or bullion form in person until I bought a couple coins last year. For me growing up gold as money was something only in history books. Fiat was what I saw, you earned it and you spent it. Since inflation is generally so gradual in 1st world countries you don't notice it, and take it for granted.

In summary, all it takes is for people that used gold as money to die off, and for dollars to be 'good enough' as money for the average person.

that's clearly a factor as well as even i stated in this thread before.  the reasons are multifactorial no doubt.  this thread is long b/c there are lots of different ideas as to why it is happening and we are just trying to flush them all out in different ways and with different nuance.

i still think digital dollars and the speed with which they can be teleported to a crisis region to prevent massive dollar debt defaults is clearly a reason that enhances stability and recovery.  gold can really only go up when there is instability and fear.  whether you call it foul play, manipulation, or moral hazard doesn't matter.  the main point being that it has defeated any significant advancement in the gold price by stopping any normal gold flows b/c gold is just too slow.

furthermore, i still think this dollar digitalization, or dollar hegemony if you prefer, is causing deflation on a broader scale.  commodities continue to fall in price reflecting declining demand.  the lack of wage increases for the broader population makes things too expensive for most.  

how can Bitcoin help in deflation?  by bringing fairness and mathematics to the table and by removing corruption and a small, elitist group of counterfeiters.

Yeah the digital dollar was a significant improvement to 'dollar' technology. Fiat in general tended to gradually improve in other ways too over time  - smaller notes and coins, better counterfeit prevention etc, but the jump to digital - ATM machines, credit cards etc all helped push it further ahead of gold in practicality terms.

An interesting thought about the digital dollar though is that it helps the transition to crytpo. Kids growing up today will be used to digital money, they won't look on digital as a replacement for phsyical just as I didn't look at fiat as a replacement for gold - they'll grow up with the normality that digital balances on a screen are their money. The mental jump from digital fiat to digital cryptos is a small one from there.

yes, and ApplePay just served to further legitimize that trend.  i find it interesting that they reopened their app store to Bitcoin wallets only 1-2 mo before their announcement.
5043  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 23, 2014, 03:40:08 PM
lots of squeeze potential:

5044  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 23, 2014, 03:31:06 PM
cypherdoc I think you're maybe even over-analyzing why dollars beat gold as money. I suspect all it took was a new generation born into dollars not backed by anything. I'm middle aged and never was under any illusion fiat was backed by anything as I grew up, I never even saw gold in coin or bullion form in person until I bought a couple coins last year. For me growing up gold as money was something only in history books. Fiat was what I saw, you earned it and you spent it. Since inflation is generally so gradual in 1st world countries you don't notice it, and take it for granted.

In summary, all it takes is for people that used gold as money to die off, and for dollars to be 'good enough' as money for the average person.

that's clearly a factor as well as even i stated in this thread before.  the reasons are multifactorial no doubt.  this thread is long b/c there are lots of different ideas as to why it is happening and we are just trying to flush them all out in different ways and with different nuance.

i still think digital dollars and the speed with which they can be teleported to a crisis region to prevent massive dollar debt defaults is clearly a reason that enhances stability and recovery.  gold can really only go up when there is instability and fear.  whether you call it foul play, manipulation, or moral hazard doesn't matter.  the main point being that it has defeated any significant advancement in the gold price by stopping any normal gold flows b/c gold is just too slow.

furthermore, i still think this dollar digitalization, or dollar hegemony if you prefer, is causing deflation on a broader scale.  commodities continue to fall in price reflecting declining demand.  the lack of wage increases for the broader population makes things too expensive for most.  

how can Bitcoin help in deflation?  by bringing fairness and mathematics to the table and by removing corruption and a small, elitist group of counterfeiters.
5045  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 23, 2014, 03:14:46 PM
so yes, the question remains, will BABA top tick the stock mkt?



sell it off baby, sell it off:



and yes, i do think we have an excellent chance at bottom ticking Bitcoin:

5046  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 23, 2014, 03:11:21 PM
Peter Schiff still coming out very strongly against Bitcoin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMfoFlJhcck&list=UUIjuLiLHdFxYtFmWlbTGQRQ

No valid arguments in the whole thing, but it does show his mindset pretty clearly.

Quote from: Peter Schiff
If you're still holding these bitcoins, DO NOT GO DOWN WITH THE SHIP. Go to my gold company, Schiff Gold... if you've got 30 or 40 bitcoins you can buy a few ounces of gold. At some point you may not be able to buy a pack of chewing gum with those bitcoins.

LOL,

Keep in mind who is on the other side of that trade for our "chewing gum money".
(He is)

Doesn't he use Bitpay to convert bitcoins to fiat?

that's what he says.

the real question is whether you think he's as stupid as he sounds.
5047  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 23, 2014, 03:09:58 PM
https://twitter.com/jgarzik/status/514422905808359424
5048  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 23, 2014, 04:32:29 AM
yee haw!

5049  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 23, 2014, 03:09:54 AM
Quote
QE is primarily used to keep the banks afloat.

Great big neon sign on this one, government benefits massively.    Can they pay the interest on their debt at higher rates, not really

but they don't have to.  the Fed keeps buying their bonds and shoving rates lower.  you know; black hole sh*t.

this is another sign of golds defeat.
5050  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 23, 2014, 03:07:57 AM
it's really sad to listen to the die hard gold bugs frustration.  i can hear the heaviness and fatigue in Eric King's voice in all his interviews nowadays.  they are truly confused.

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2014/9/21_Bill_Fleckenstein_files/Bill%20Fleckenstein%209%3A21%3A2014.mp3
5051  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 23, 2014, 02:17:53 AM
if i'm right that the digital dollar has already defeated gold as a form of money, then it doesn't seem too far fetched at all that a significant portion of the $8T gold market can come into Bitcoin.  maybe even most of it.

Cool! Thanks for taking the time and effort for sharing your thesis. The digital dollar also doesn't have any annoying little ledger like the blockchain to get in the way of using the <CTL> P key ad infinitum.

i don't know how any gold bug can even argue with me that this defeat hasn't already happened and in fact has been going on for several decades.

gold has never been able to enforce fair interest rates or stop the Fed from printing.  we don't need to know anything else except for the fact that the price of gold has been languishing.  the only means for it to enforce that discipline would be for its price to skyrocket caused by, or as a result of, the masses fleeing to it as a safe haven.

for gold bugs to argue that we should put our hard earned savings into gold in the face of the events of the last few decades is like the NSA saying to trust it with our personal data despite the fact the Eric Snowden just stole all our data.
5052  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 23, 2014, 02:03:41 AM
if i'm right that the digital dollar has already defeated gold as a form of money, then it doesn't seem too far fetched at all that a significant portion of the $8T gold market can come into Bitcoin.  maybe even most of it.
5053  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 23, 2014, 01:34:11 AM
last nite i was thinking about what exactly has enabled the USD fiat system to defeat gold over the last few decades since the 1970's after we depegged. i think the answer is digital dollars.

normally when we talk about the relationship of fiat to gold, we talk in terms of paper dollars that are printed out of thin air.  yes, a piece of paper is lighter than an ounce of gold so naturally we'd prefer to carry those around.  and in the Money is Memory paper, we refer to this as a technological advance.  but really, it's the digitalization of those dollars that has made gold obsolete.

as you know, 93% or so of the USD monetary base is digital dollars.  with these digital dollars and the digital debt that can be instantly leveraged from them, the Fed can instantly transmit them round the world to put out dollar debt crises.  all it now takes is a few strokes on a keyboard along with the Internet and the money can be there.  the Euro swaps extended to the European banks back in 2008 come to mind.  this ability to digitally transfer dollars in the form of swaps or loans to those regions before a true crisis can get off the ground is what allows the Fed to put out financial crises before the local price of gold can skyrocket and enforce sound money principles. before digital dollars existed, the local price of gold would go up in a crisis causing gold from outside the country to start moving into the region to satisfy the extra demand and arbitrage away price differences.  with time and with a little contagion, worldwide prices of gold could rise as well.  unfortunately gold, being from the physical world, can't find its way quick enough into a crisis zone nowadays simply b/c of its weight and bulk.  digital bailout dollars are too fast.  what makes it even worse is that most gold is tied up in NY and London because of the physical bulk security needs and convenience for countries and institutions.  but even major countries like Germany can't seem to get at their gold stores at the Fed when they want to.  thru stalling tactics, the Fed can buy itself time to provide alternative bailouts or assistance to countries or regions in trouble and when the will is there, they can digitally transfer dollars in the form of loans or swaps to recipient countries instantaneously.  and now, after all these decades, a moral hazard has built up and countries even expect a certain level of digital dollar bailout as Argentina recently tried to negotiate. this further takes the pressure off the gold price. but as we've seen, the problem is that the digital dollar system has become very political and corrupt.

the point i am trying to make is that gold has already been defeated by a digital currency. it's just that the gold bugs can't conceptualize that. they continue to talk in terms of "paper money" and "printing" in relationship to a scarce, heavy, beautiful hunk of metal.  these terms are holdovers from an age gone by.  these physical constructs in their minds serve to embed their misunderstanding of what's been happening.  they misunderstand what's causing their frustrations. digital money is already here folks and it's working; just not ideally.  

when viewed from this perspective, Bitcoin suddenly makes alot of sense.  it is an even better digital money than the digital dollar that is not effected by politics or corruption.  and it can easily compete with the digital dollar through the efficiencies it brings, as it eliminates intermediaries, inflation, and costs.  it even works at the level of the individual where digital dollars can't compete.  and most importantly, it removes the Fed.

sorry if these concepts are already obvious to some but i don't recall it ever having being put exactly this way.


5054  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 22, 2014, 09:44:12 PM
i've been ignoring this one all day but then decided to take a look.  lol:

Million dollar smile

5055  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 22, 2014, 08:55:33 PM
the US laid bare:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-22/first-germany-now-france-folds-syrian-airstrikes
5056  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 22, 2014, 08:44:20 PM
Excellent interview of Thomas Piketty, author on wealth inequality. He received quite a bit of criticism on this work but only because the book was so popular and threatening to the financial elite.

http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2014/09/thomas_piketty.html

He is a marxist, he wants to control everyone, be careful who you admire

lol, finding out more and more about him.
5057  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 22, 2014, 07:30:07 PM
The divergence is coming
5058  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 22, 2014, 07:14:29 PM
Breaking out.  just look at that volume from Friday:



escape velocity:

5059  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 22, 2014, 07:10:59 PM
Dow -108
5060  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 22, 2014, 07:06:09 PM
bouncing on schedule:

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