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What is your brief take on the macro economic picture for the next year or two cypher?
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One thing I have noticed is that during the bear market any period of stable prices was followed by an aggressive sell off. The reverse seems to be occurring since we broke the log downtrend line definitively. We will need to send out a search party for tarmi, tzupy, NHJT etc if they don't check in soon.  |
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Nice thread bro, something I think to myself fairly often. No worries here though, I'm prepared for the moon bound, rocket launch. HODL until that day gentlemen! Don't panic sell or lose patience with bitcoin. We'll get there one day even if it's 5-10 years from now. Cold storage - HODL my friends  Good lad. |
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Well good morning Bitcoinland.
Still over $280 I see. I think we can safely say we've left the $260s behind.
I won't declare the battle for $280 won until we hit $300 again.
It'd be nice to put that silly Wile E ledge GIF to rest though.
No sign of our lamented troll, fortunately. Nice blip up in the price. It seems to be increasing with my tan. |
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Are you not afraid that you misread the bitcoin market ? In my opinion very few weak hands are left and most of the coins that are held now are bought either before the rally in the end of 2013 or shortly before and after the crash to 150$. That means most of the people are still(surprisingly) or almost in the green, even the people that joined after the November 2013 rally and timed their buys not in an amateurish way. Could it be that bitcoin is too small for such strong macroeconomic effects to have this impact ?
In the end most of the current holders are bulls that value their coins much higher than the current price, at least that is what i assume. Maybe i am naive.
Edit: I am fucking tempted to sell a small portion if it gets up again over 300$, just in case you are correct.
Some diversification doesn't hurt. Even if you lose some BTC, you didn't lose value in dollars which is the real world for now any way. Fighting against ingrained ideological delusion is important for rational investing. Hey I think crypto-currency has a lot of upside, but I am not married to anything like the looney ideologs who hatetard on any injection of alternatives to their to-the-moon psychosis. I try to look rationally at the situation and hedge according to appraisals of probabilities. To your specific point, I doubt anyone has been buying BTC who wasn't doubling down on past mistakes of buying too high. Those who bought $10 or below have their fill and have been diversifying some to buy castles and Ferrari's. The mass media has not been pushing Bitcoin lately. Why would newbies be buying? Newcomers buying for use reasons, e.g. money transfers or to buy goods anonymous, would instead only buy what they need to spend. The greater fools don't buy low, so why would they be rushing in now in a declining market with bad press? The capitulation of the diehards, who finally short at the bottom is how we reach a bottom. I have to see inca cry uncle or disappear, then I know we are at the bottom. I believe what is happening now is the destruction of all the hatetards. So I am advising those who want to come out the other side. But I could be wrong? (not likely) You are talking to yourself and talk is cheap. Post evidence of your own skin in the game or shuffle off. I would repeat caution to anyone reading this. Any form of leverage is an extremely good way of losing all your capital. Those who have actually been in the markets or traded with any degree of risk management or attempted capital preservation know this too well. |
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I hope no one listened to this 'sort of prophet' and just lost a lot of money.
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I cannot wait until we fork this problem away.
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OP put your money where your mouth is and take out a large short position, post a screenshot here as proof and then lap up the idolatry and adulation when your price target hits and bitcoin collapses.
Trying to convince others to short a hypervolatile commodity based on the flimsy premise that you are 'a kind of prophet' smacks a little of insanity.
The forum is still eagerly awaiting delivery of your bitcoin killer..
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CNBC: Bitcoin's 'war' could threaten its survivalBitcoin, the digital currency technology with an ecosystem attracting hundreds of millions of dollars in investment, is struggling through an existential crisis. And what may to outsiders seem like petty squabbling about a single number actually has major financial implications and could even threaten the very survival of the cryptocurrency. The argument—which is pitting Chinese constituencies against largely Western developers, the business community against the often ideological early adopters, and programmer against programmer—centers on a simple number in the global bitcoin system. But if the various parties can't come to an agreement, the whole network could splinter, wrecking its major selling points of security and decentralization. "There is literally a war going on right now in the bitcoin world," Marco Streng, CEO of Genesis Mining, told CNBC last month. What's the issue? There are two major questions facing the technology: Who is bitcoin for? And who gets to decide? Most of the early adopters saw appeal in bitcoin as a decentralized digital currency—(to over-simplify the promise) a sort of virtual gold that could not be touched by governments, banks or corporations. But in seeking to create the perfect system for such a currency, bitcoin's early creators also created a technology that has wide-ranging applications. That technology is called the "blockchain" (CNBC has gone in depth into how it works), and this is basically what it does: It can record any information in a secure way, and make that information both public and unchangeable—doing this without relying on any central authority. Banks, stock exchanges, payment companies and others have already begun exploring how this can be used in their own businesses. The issue at hand is about the structure of bitcoin's blockchain (which is composed of "blocks" of data with each block referring back to the preceding chunk of information—thereby creating a chain). The community is arguing about how big the maximum block size should be: The current max is one megabyte, which only allows for about seven transactions per second—far too few for most businesses currently investing in the technology. This speed is a "roadblock to bitcoin growth," Jeff Garzik, one of five bitcoin core developers who have taken over maintenance of the technology, wrote in a recent paper. (Visa, for comparison, says its network can handle more than 24,000 transactions per second.) "Any responsible business projecting capacity usage into the future sees the system reaching an absolute maximum capacity, with this speed limit in place," he wrote. "Increasing or removing this limit will encourage businesses to view bitcoin as scalable and capable of supporting millions of new users." ... http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/23/bitcoins-war-could-threaten-its-survival.htmlJeffy G for president dictator. yes, i am glad Garzik recognizes the problem: "Any responsible business projecting capacity usage into the future sees the system reaching an absolute maximum capacity, with this speed limit in place," he wrote. "Increasing or removing this limit will encourage businesses to view bitcoin as scalable and capable of supporting millions of new users."
so i didn't see who was actual backing the "1MB blockers for now" in this "war" I saw these two fores as aligned not pitted gained each-other: " the business community against the often ideological early adopters" not to mention I was under the impression the largely Western Developers were alighted with the Chinese [mining] constituencies. I think the vast majority of the bitcoin ecosystem want bitcoin to scale in the safest manner possible. The '1mb blockers' seem to only have any sway in the argument because of the naturally conservative approach to changing things in Core. |
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Do you think in the past year and a half (since ATH), has there been a quiet redistribution of bitcoins? Do you think major players are quietly accumulating right now?
One payment processor, Bitpay, has said they don't sell their coins on the open market. They have private buyers for them. Also, since the public market has been relatively stable since the beginning of the year, if any major players were accumulating, they wouldn't do it on the public markets.
If you have any data on Bitcoin distribution from late 2013 to now, it would be great to see if it's getting more or less concentrated.
Look at bitfinex to see how the price was managed down from an attempted bubble last July in the mid 600's through the use of heavy leveraged shorting (at one stage up to 35000 bitcoins). Someone has bought a lot of coins in the last year. |
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There is the small matter of the fact the price stubbornly isn't collapsing to $150, but hey ho. Having reviewed the post you linked you didn't even predict $315. Gold will never go below its 1980's high of ~$800 and you are going to have be very lucky indeed to pick up any bitcoins at 150  |
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I don't have 100 bitcoins but I really, really hope the OP will be a millionaire by 2020 by owning 100 bitcoins because that will mean I get a pretty life changing sum of money too, although not a million.
I think 2020 is too soon for 10,000 USD coins though (which is what the price would have to be to be a millionaire with 100 bitcoins), maybe by 2025 but I'd love to be proved wrong. I think in 5 years we could see $2500 bitcoins. 10,000 USD seems a bit of a massive jump though.
That is a massive jump from ~280$ to 2,500$. I dont think it will reach that only if semething unusual will happen on 2020. But if it will be the situation like these years now, then it is hard even to reach 1,000$ Look at the price chart for the last 6 years. Bitcoin could easily move up 9x in a month given the right trigger. Speculative selling fervour has ceased and leveraged selling has almost returned to where it was before the last bubble. It may never bubble again, but with the new financial instruments coming online allowing investors to buy directly from their share portfolio, perhaps the release to much fanfare of COIN etf, ruling out a sudden move up would be silly given it's history of such parabolic violent price rises. It is still the most exciting part of my portfolio |
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Price flat. Another 800 shorts capitulated. Back under 10k.
I have to say the Greek islands are lovely.
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If you're serious then selling out is the appropriate motion at this point. Otherwise, stay tuned cuz the next moon is right around the corner and you'll likely miss it base upon your disbelief at what is to come cuz you're so shell shocked.
Please don't quote him.. |
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I just thought of realised something - if BTC counterrallies to Gold, Gold will fall faster & harder!
BTC will go up even faster than it would too.
How can we relaise this in a TA matter ? Money from Gold will flow into BTC Thanks for the fast reply What I meant is, is there some sort of Charts we can look at when what you says happens, or we will just witness a rally ? You can watch a BTCGLD chart like the one in Vaultoro (maybe Bitgold has one too, haven't checked). What you wanna see is 2 things: 1) Who has the upper hand? 2) The upper hand is rallying relatively to USD too? Don't we think that Gold reached a dip point where it can't recover ? As far as I've read on reddit, Gold is nearly dooming. What are short/medium/long term specualtion Klee ? Remember who owns and holds gold - every central bank in the world. Consider that when everyone is telling you to sell and knows the price is doomed that it is probably getting close to a good time to buy That said I havent bought any gold in 3 years. I will buy some if the price dips to 1000. |
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Kicking off on reddit, too.
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Hence why the argument of it already being priced in somewhat certainly holds water.
It isn't priced in because it is over a year away. There are people arguing for a rally, a fizzle or no effect. It is undeniably a huge event on the bitcoin calendar because it marks the last time that bitcoin coin inflation can ever be blamed for supply exceeding demand and pushing the price down. 5% inflation is pretty good. But any price shenanigans that go on around that time will be driven by the same heavy speculators driving the price up and down. In the longer run if demand picks up then the reduced mining supply could lead to price rises. Which would be nice. Disagree. Any event that you know of is a part of the consideration when buying/selling that stock/currency/commodity etc etc. I'm not saying its completely priced in I said hence why that argument holds water. You can't seriously suggest that it's not already part of the market psychology when people are already talking about it and anticipating a price rise due to it. All speculators big and small are holding hoping for it to cause a price rise. It certainly doesn't mark the last time that btc inflation can be blamed for supply exceeding demand. How can you possibly say that. If the price rallies up to $10000 on a spike (remember on long term charts $1000+ was just a monthly spike) Then supply in $ terms could still easily outstrip demand. Don't forget not all mined coins are instantly sold, and all mined coins are part of inflation. My point being you can't possibly state what you're saying as fact. Saying it is priced in is meaningless in my humble opinion. It is just something people say. If the market simply knowing an event in advance means it is priced in then the 2020 halving is priced in too, right? You are right of course that if the price rallies up hugely then even 5% inflation could exert an effect. But the price is set by supply and demand and going forward the mining supply is going to become largely an irrelevence in comparison with the actual proportion of coins already in existence being used to set the price. I will just say that it is an exciting time to be in bitcoin. |
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Every day is one day closer to the halving. One day closer to the next ATH. I've started banking my trading profits in BTC instead of dollars. We'll never see $220 again.
please explain.. what is keeping bitcoin from seeing 220 again ?? what is your idea why that is ?? just the halving is the reason why u think that ?? Think halving is huge and undervalued as no currency out there have done anything like that (minus ALTS). Will we see $220 in the meantime is anyone's guess.... Unlike the feds who well, quite frankly, do whatever the fuck they please. Always putting out there "We might do this"...guess what... with bitcoin, there is no might on the supply. Hence why the argument of it already being priced in somewhat certainly holds water. It isn't priced in because it is over a year away. There are people arguing for a rally, a fizzle or no effect. It is undeniably a huge event on the bitcoin calendar because it marks the last time that bitcoin coin inflation can ever be blamed for supply exceeding demand and pushing the price down. 5% inflation is pretty good. But any price shenanigans that go on around that time will be driven by the same heavy speculators driving the price up and down. In the longer run if demand picks up then the reduced mining supply could lead to price rises. Which would be nice. |
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Sideways, then. |
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Is it just me or are the price manipulators getting desperate?
Bulls are happy to buy at 200-300. Every sell off will be bought. Bitcoin investors wont be selling until the halving is here. |
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