So you (7788bitcoin) are a better expert than the President of that country regarding what El Salvador should do in terms of its budgetary trade-offs? 

Furthermore, what would make you presume that Bukele is acting beyond what he has determined to be in the better interest of his country?

Do you believe he is rogue in his actions? 

Have you considered whether Bukele might have support for what he did and what he is doing in regards to bitcoin policies that were implemented and his various buying of bitcoin directly? 

Sure we are talking about (and focusing on) bitcoin here, but doesn't governing involve making assessments and balancing of a variety of concerns too?  Some matters would be within the discretion of the president and other matters require consulting and/or approval of other governing bodies, and perhaps other matters require getting feedback from constituents.

In essence, how would you (7788bitcoin) know that you are in a better position to judge the various balances that are being considered and made in bitcoin as compared with what Bukele is doing or what the country is doing?  What if the country wants bitcoin, then should he just ignore it?  Or you just automatically presume that bitcoin is not a good option because of the seemingly lame reason that you provided above, including it's too poor to buy bitcoin?  or it bought too much?  It's like you see that someone bought bitcoin, but you presume all of their circumstances when making an assessment that they made the wrong choice, right?

I have seen variations of "correlation" talking points coming from all kinds of people, including institutional investors making the same kind of nonsense claims.

Even the way that you frame the issue pooya87, seems to be quite inadequate - because pretty much the whole time that I have been in bitcoin, I have been hearing various kinds of correlation claims (and yeah, you and I have been in bitcoin for a similar amount of time).

I would not even deny that considerable amounts of correlation does not exist, especially if we are either making short-term assessments or attempting to act as if we are making long term assessments without accounting for the actual data.

In other words, sure of course there can appear to be all kinds of correlation in the short term and even we might anticipate some short term factors that will cause bitcoin's price to move but if we zoom the fuck out, we should appreciate that other things are going on in bitcoin, including the nature of its difference as an asset class and also the fact that early stages of adoption is going to contribute towards bitcoin having way more UPside price pressures (and moves) as compared to various mature asset classes/currencies because in part it takes way the hell less capital to move bitcoin UP as compared to various other mature asset classes/currencies.

I am not even sure how productive it would be for me to go into various details regarding how some specific time (or incident) might be pointed out as a starting point to compare bitcoin's prices to other asset classes/currencies because surely some time periods are more representative than others and may well help to illustrate different points about price movement that might have occurred within a certain timeframe that might represent some kind of a point that is being attempted to be made.  Sometimes folks are really disingenuine with the way they present information because they are trying to make certain kinds of points, so then they select their data to argue their various points... and we see this all the time with nocoiners, lowcoiners, bitcoin naysayers, shitcoin pumpeners, and some other similar classes of persons who frequently will start their analysis of bitcoin's supposed comparative price performance in terms of starting with whereever bitcoin had peaked in its price and then arguing their points from there.. and surely sometimes there can be some valid points that are made by starting with the peak, but frequently the various comparative price performance claims are not really trying to get to any kind of meaningful assessment regarding what might be happening in the world that is helpful for people to figure out how they might consider their own allocation into bitcoin.

For sure, there are likely ways to measure bottoms that ends up being more helpful than measuring tops, but even the measurement of bottoms or starting from bottoms can lead some disingenuine posters into skewing data to mislead and misrepresent any kind of attempt at fair analysis and assessments of bitcoin as compared to other asset classes/currencies.


Surely, it is not easy to know about the various factors to attempt to explain causation - even though I really have tendencies to get aggravated when single cause explanations seem to get more emphases than deserved... and so in that regard, all time there seems to be quite a few things going on that likely contribute to bitcoin price dynamics in a variety of ways, and maybe the short to medium term noise is less important than figuring out larger and broader trends - but in threads like this one, guys may well be striving to figure out various current causal matters in order that they might have greater success to time dips or to figure out if they might need to change some course of action that they have planned for either attempting to accumulate more bitcoin - if that might be amongst the most relevant of goals that we are attempting to discuss in this thread (sure Wind_Fury mentioned this goal, too).


I still believe that persons who are engaged in ongoing BTC accumulation are going to still have a variety of circumstances that vary in terms of each of their personal factors, so we should not be assuming everyone who might benefit from discussion of these various correlation (or lack thereof) points is going to be coming at the matter from the same angle.... whether we are referring to how long the person may have already been in bitcoin (including considering how much they may have already screwed up in their historical BTC accumulation strategies/practices) or even if some guys might be new to bitcoin and either coming in with ONLY having a cashflow or they might have a lump sum that is invested in other areas (or maybe already in cash) that they are attempting to figure out some kind of short-to-medium term BTC accumulation strategies and how to possibly best manage and think about the balancing of their circumstances.

So yeah it is not only the management of cashflow that is potentially at issue Wind_FURY.. any of the other personal factors could cause guys to think about the BTC accumulation matter differently, and I suppose it does not hurt to list them to include other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, view of bitcoin as compared to other assets, time, skills and abilities to learn, strategize, tweak along the way that might include reallocating from time to time or even trading, the use of leverage or the employment of various financial instruments - and for sure, I am way more an advocate of getting personal basics into place before even attempting to use more complicated methods such as trading, leverage and/or financial instruments - even though each of us has to consider our own circumstance in term of those more sophisticated ways of approaching bitcoin investing and accumulation.


There's always some risk if you get too tied up into making fractal comparisons, even if you might end up getting your prediction correct, you are likely going to get yourself into some kind of psychological or financial pickle (if you have not already) if you assign higher probabilities than they deserve to these kinds of patterns that you see (whether unique to your own shower visions or you are engaging in some kinds of kumbaya coordinations with some of your soulmates..   )


There are a lot of ways that correlation can be raised in current times, and also has been historically raised.. and perhaps none of us really disagree that the correlation claims tend to be misleading and self-selected so I am having some troubles appreciating how much they might need to be explored here.. even though correlation does seem to be an evergreen topic that seems to have quite a bit of evergreen validity because there is likely a decent amount of truth regarding those kinds of claims in the short term, even if they might even be conclusive that bitcoin is going to stay correlated in this particular part of whatever cycle bitcoin is in.. but at the same the correlation dynamics would not be something to completely ignore, either, even if there are tendencies to raise those kinds of questions in ways that could mislead folks in terms of their own psychological and/or financial preparations.


I doubt that the crash or correction that we did experience was inevitable, even though after it happens, we can see that it happened, so it is not like we can change history.

There are a lot of times in bitcoin that purported BTC price gurus proclaim that we "have to" go down before we go up, and then it does not happen, so guys end up getting fucked because they failed/refused to sufficiently/adequately prepare for UP.  I have seen it a lot of times.


I would not even presume that they have the coins that they claim to have - so in that regard, some of those various funds could end up getting fucked royally if the BTC price ends up moving against them (meaning that the BTC price moves up 100% or 200% or even some other variation that might even be quite lower) and they ONLY have less than 10% of the coins that they claim to have.. They get fucked and maybe any clients using their service gets fucked too if the company is not solvent enough to cover their misrepresentations.  

By the way, another thing is that they are allowed to cover in dollars, so they may well not even be required to hold any bitcoin, but their having had followed their various legal obligations might not relieve them or their clients when they end up not having enough capital to cover BTC price moves against their degenerate gambling that ends up not working out... even account for a hypothetical that they are claiming to have $1billion in bitcoin, but they only have $100 million?  and of course, there are funds that may well be playing with way higher numbers than that.

I suppose that part of my point is that we cannot necessarily presume that financial tools that allow for downward manipulation of the BTC price are going to facilitate them being as successful as they may have been historically with other assets, especially accounting for the bearer asset component to bitcoin that is pretty easy to claim possession (even though clients who use some of the more sophisticated financial instruments might contract away their rights to claim possession of the bitcoin, not everyone with exposure to bitcoin through such instruments is going to enter into such contracts that do not allow them to verify the asset holdings that any company claims to have).

Another way to attempt to figure out who might well be the merit sources is that Coin-1 bolds them in the OP and in the monthly updates.

 


 

I get your point Charles-Tim that when BTC prices get back into upward momentum, then a whole hell of a lot of normies are going to end up getting convinced through a kind of osmosis (or would it me a kind of inevitable appreciation regarding how the world happens to be changing) that bitcoin happens to be the soundest of monies/assets that the world has seen up to date... so in that sense there is a kind of likely inevitability that value is going to continue to flow into bitcoin - just like it already has been flowing into bitcoin in the past 10-12 years based on greater and greater recognition that not only is bitcoin the soundest of assets/monies but that it is sufficiently backed by technology and even the ongoing growth (support) of network effects to be able to ongoingly continue to inspire more and more folks (institutions and governments too) to allocate more of their value into bitcoin.

What I am trying to say is that genuine people are likely ongoingly going to recognize the value of bitcoin, yet I question the extent to which TelolettOm is actually trying to understand/appreciate bitcoin rather than spouting out some fear-based(fear-spreading) talking points to denigrate bitcoin.  Sure, some of the seemingly disingenuine persons will be coming around to bitcoin, too.. maybe reluctantly 5-10 years from now, rather than within a sooner timeline.. that is to the extent that they actually might be ready, willing or able to try to understand the nonsense of their own ill-informed bitcoin bashing talking points.


I have doubts about whether outlining El Salvador's motivations to be directed towards currency rather than investment is either helpful or accurate.  DdmrDdmr, Doan9269 and _act_ seem to have been saying something similar above1, above2 and above3 in terms of "why not both?"

Sure, we know and can appreciate currency aspects of bitcoin - especially when we consider various ways that bitcoin can be fairly easily and cheaply transmitted through lightning network vehicles, nonetheless, Bukele seems to have gotten pretty smart about bitcoin pretty quickly and has publicly shown that he has decent understandings of various value propositions of bitcoin that likely goes beyond pigeon-holing bitcoin in a currency versus investment dichotomy.

I don't really disagree with your overall points Odusko, but your framework may well be a bit misleading because we already know that bitcoin can serve in a variety of roles in terms of currency, asset, software, ledger and perhaps other ways of framing the matter - while at the same time, Bukele does not seem to be limiting his own way of thinking or talking about current or future bitcoin contributions to his country or to the world.


You cannot presume to know which way the BTC price is going to go in the short to medium term, and I doubt that Bukele's approach to bitcoin (in terms of leading El Salvador's BTC purchases) were intended to be buying high, so his own conduct in terms of investing into bitcoin on behalf of El Salvador seemed to have been preparations for BTC prices to go up, and so the fact that they went down does not necessarily mean that he did the wrong thing or that he could have done it better - so there are a bit of a Monday morning quarter-backing deficiencies angle in your own assessment of the situation, TelolettOm - as if you have superior knowledge about how to balance various interests whether financial or even representational matters.

I will concede that the level of some of Bukele's public statements regarding what he was doing and his various intentions in regards to bitcoin likely had some negative consequences, though it is not even easy to know whether the positives might not have outweighed the negatives in that direction, and leaders of countries have discretion regarding how they choose to publicize some aspects of their representational behaviors/actions.


Yeah.. it is so crazy that quite a few people engage in this kind of behavior.. which kind of goes to show how difficult that it can be to really attempt to get ahead of the BTC price and stay ahead of the BTC price.

One of the ways to have decent chances of getting ahead of the BTC price is to have at least a 4-10 year investment time horizon, and of course, DCA (dollar cost average investing) seems to help in the matter too.  There are some  controversies about whether DCA works better or lump sum investing, and surely folks with lump sums to invest have those kinds of options; however, the vast majority of normies do not have much if any lump sums that they can invest, so in that regard, DCA does seem to serve as the more practical approach for the vast majority of folks (whether normies or not... hahahahaha)..

One thing that I will mention about DCA investing is that a decent number of people fail/refuse to have sufficient foresight to appreciate that if they are continuing to invest into something like BTC, then there investment injections are spread out and it almost inevitably causes their timeline to increase way beyond the point in which they started to invest - so really in bitcoin 4-10 year time horizons should also apply to those amounts invested at later dates - and surely one of the ways to attempt to lock in the time horizon is to attempt a certain amount of frontloading of the investment to attempt to invest aggressively in the beginning to the extent feasible - and hopefully without investing so much in the beginning that it ends up causing panic at later dates if the BTC price falls... and so another part of any DCA investing strategy ends up attempting to calculating reasonable amounts that are sufficiently aggressive to allow for the ability to feel meaningful benefits in the event of future BTC price appreciation.. but not so aggressive that there are temptations to be dipping into the BTC fund because short-term expenses and an emergency fund has not been adequately accounted for.  I am not even saying that these balances are easy, but they are things that the vast majority of people (including normies) should be able to learn with a bit of application and practice.

MSTR has engaged in a fairly aggressive bitcoin accumulation strategy that has been suggested to rise to the level of a speculative attack on the dollar (at least some people have described MSTR's approach to bitcoin in that kind of a way - which is not completely unfair, even if that characterization might come off as overly-confrontational regarding what MSTR might be doing).

In other words, their first couple of BTC purchases (before the 3rd one in the $19ks) had been right around $10k, and from the start they used decently large portions of their cash reserves initially and then their cashflow subsequently.

Furthermore, they have created investment bonds, encumbered some of their business equity, gotten loans for the purpose of buying BTC, and increasingly put themselves into both debt and also various ways of leveraging long..

Yeah, sure they could shave of some of their BTC and still be in profits on those BTC that they sell, yet if you had not noticed the ideology of MSTR - including but not limited to their leader (Saylor) is not getting caught up in short-to-medium term valuations of BTC in terms of dollars, but instead a kind of longer term play that continues to acquire the asset as if it were the scarce real estate analogy that Saylor employs when talking about bitcoin.

You likely realize that Saylor is far from secret about his views, and essentially has been suggesting that his (and MSTR's) style of aggressiveness should be replicated by others - and he has been pretty damned vocal since around the same time as his Company's first BTC purchase in August 2020 (that spurred fillippone into making this thread too).

Selling for short-term good feelings does not conform with his way of approaching bitcoin as an asset, and surely I have criticized Saylor on a number of occasions for being way more bullish than I would recommend - and especially such an approach would not be as applicable for the vast majority of normies, yet I would not consider that Saylor has even gotten close to putting himself in a pickle - yet even if the public and some of his shareholders likely get nervous about outrageous negative BTC price performance.. that happens sometimes, and maybe has been happening a bit more at this particular stage of bitcoin's market growth than what had been expected.

Another matter is that Saylor (and MSTR) made quite a few BTC purchases (levered as well) in ways that did not appear to have any level of sensitivity to BTC prices, so even though several of his earlier purchases that were employed without leverage and also with excess cash that was available are well into the green, several of his later purchases were made at much higher prices and with leverage - and sure in retrospect, we might consider that he might have been a bit better off to have attempted to strategize buying on the dip a wee bit more, but just Saylor's overall approach and bullish mindset in regards to bitcoin has not allowed him to be price sensitive in any kind of mere mortal way or even in the ways that normies should probably be a bit more price sensitive than Saylor has demonstrated.

Don't get me wrong, I consider Saylor to be smart as fuck in a lot of ways in regards to creating and employing innovative financial instruments to accumulate more BTC, while I have been having my doubts about whether Saylor might have learned any lessons in terms of better approaches to accumulate BTC - or if his (and MSTR's) current seemingly somewhat stressed financial position might not cause him to adapt some of his seemingly gambling (in the sense of overly leveraging) ways.  I am not even patronizing because I am pretty sure that Saylor had already recognize some aspects of these kinds of risks that the BTC price might go down rather than up or sideways, but still there could be some ways that Saylor might either recalculate getting into further buys (such as employing a somewhat HODLer short-term strategy) or just being a bit more strategic on some of his buys in terms of attempting to buy on dips with some of the potential shorter term BTC purchases that he might make.      

Guys can speculate in regards to how selling might be one of the additional tools that Saylor (MSTR) could employ because there seems to be some kind of fantasy about selling BTC to be part of the Saylor (MSTR)'s portfolio management, and it just seems doubtful to me that selling would be any kind of significant or meaningful way of managing MSTR's portfolio.. at least not at these prices.. but maybe if the BTC price goes back up into the $50ks or higher maybe Saylor might consider some kind of selling to be prudent - yet based on pretty strongly held and seemingly consistent statements that Saylor has made, I have my doubts in that regards to him even considering selling BTC in the $100k or $1million price ranges.. and sure, maybe I am misreading him a wee bit in terms of his ideas in regards to the employment of some selling to be healthy for his overall portfolio..

There is a need to do your own assessment in regards to bitcoin in terms of attempting to assess if you believe that bitcoin is a sufficiently strong investment that you are going to be able to weather the UPs and the DOWNs in the price and continue to buy on a regular basis - whether that is DCA, buying on dips, lump sum investing or a combination of those methods.

You already recognize that there may well be some phoniness to the information that you see posted in telegram (or whatever other forums that you participate in).  

On a personal basis, I believe that everyone should be investing some amount of money into bitcoin, even if it ONLY happens to be $10 per week, and surely the more aggressive your ongoing investment, the more likely that your persistence and aggressiveness will payoff   -  so long as you make sure that you have enough money for expenses and even an emergency fund so you do not have to draw upon your bitcoin for a long time 4-10 years or longer.

So, if you are scared about investing into bitcoin, then maybe you would only invest the smaller amounts until you become more comfortable - and in the end, you have to figure out for yourself if there might be some reasonable and ongoing way that you can invest in bitcoin and feel comfortable with your choice.. because it is not good to be shaken out during times like these .. and some people do just pause their buying even though during times like these it may well be better to make sure that you continue to buy. but each of us has to figure out those kinds of balancing matters.



There also seems to be a kind of direct attack on the BTC price through the Luna/UST baloney, that is contributing to actual concrete cascading sales that cause difficulties to buy when the BTC price is dropping so fast and uncertainties regarding when it will bottom.. at least in the short to medium term there may well be some kind of need to feel comfort that the intensity of the BTC price drops have stopped... at least in the short term.


Fuck shitcoins.

This thread is about bitcoin and not about shitcoins.. don't buy that shit and if you want to talk about buying various shitcoins, then talk about it in some other thread.


You are referring to other assets _BlackStar.  

I agree with everything you said in regards to bitcoin.. but your attempt to apply the same ideas to "a number of assets" is off topic, and we don't know what the fuck you are talking about.. because there are a lot of shitty ones out there, and trying to figure out which one might be less shitty than another is way beyond the topic of this thread.  In other words, maybe you would like to edit your post and see if you are ready, willing and able to say the same thing about bitcoin or were you talking about something other than bitcoin ... by the way, you do not even use the word bitcoin in your post, which is another sign that you might be talking about another topic or some random shitcoin... or even concluding that the same DCA, buying on dip principles can be applied to all of crypto.. Maybe you should clarify what you mean?


Maybe this is a case in point.. ?  This foggy thinking is contagious..

We are not talking about shitcoins or multiple assets in this thread.. because the vast majority of everything else is shit.. and you run the risk of rug pull or some other variation of a scam... the various shitcoins likely correlate with bitcoin on the short term, but if they do not have fundamentals, then it's very risky to believe you can invest in them long term.. and have any level of assurance, and one of the presumptions of this thread is that in the long term your investment is going to pay off whether you buy on the dip, DCA or lump sum.. or even just HODL through the trying periods.  If you are investing into other coins, you do not have those kinds of assurances.. and you need to do some level of fundamental analysis on each of the coins.. and hopefully engage in that fuzzy logic wishful-thinking in some other thread because the overwhelming majority of coins are only following bitcoin (until they don't.. then your fucked - in other words, once your shitcoin goes on a negative trajectory, DCA, buying on dips, lump sum investing and HODL is not going to help you.. except perhaps cause you to keep putting money into the crap that keeps going down.. and that is not the case for bitcoin in terms of fundamentals and the reason that those techniques apply to bitcoin and not to shitcoins).

Of course, no coiners and low coiners are going to want to accumulate more BTC.

You are not saying anything inconsistent with what I have already said many times.. I know from experience and you are largely preaching to the choir in that regard.

In other words, I am surely not going to hate on BTC accumulators or their motives, and likely quite a bit of the content of my earlier post was assuming a decent amount of accumulation had already happened... such as pre-September 2020 accumulation and largely BTC accumulated with averages less than $10k per BTC.

I might even be understating the case, because even any kind of normie who got into BTC right around September 2020 and might have even attempted to engage in relatively aggressive BTC accumulation, may well NOT have even had a sufficient amount of time to engage in sufficient/adequate BTC accumulation... so I surely understand the likely advantages of investing in BTC in a declining price situation, and several times I have asserted that a whole cycle might not even be enough to really get a decent BTC stash going.

For sure, we cannot know what BTC prices are going to do, but there are likely a lot of ways that advantages come to bitcoin newbies and even anyone investing into BTC less than a full cycle (unless they really had done a pre-September 2020 lump sum investment into BTC of 10% to 30% of their investment portfolio - presuming a significantly established investment portfolio).

For sure, I have seen bitcoin accumulators with short timelines into BTC cheering for the BTC price to go shooting up currently, when largely they have not established much if any kind of bitcoin investment stake... so for sure some relative newbies into bitcoin striving to be somewhat aggressive by even putting $100 to $200 per week into bitcoin will likely get a decent amount of benefit from a dip like this and even if such dip ends up lingering for a long time - even 1 year or 2 years.

Just a reminder that my personal position in bitcoin was clearly negative for more than my first 2 years, and then ambiguous for nearly another year after the first 2 years and really did not start to feel comfortably profitable until after 3 years had passed - and even though there were various challenges to the profitable level of my BTC holdings after having more than 3 years into it, there was a decent amount of cushion to provide comfort - and surely we cannot really know if history is going to allow current accumulators to achieve those kinds of similar levels of psychological and financial comforts/cushions - which also so far in bitcoin's history - there have been guys who have suffered doubts in bitcoin at various times, but the HODLers and persistent ongoing (and sometimes aggressive) BTC accumulators profited through bitcoin's history - those guys who mostly held onto the coins that they accumulated and engaged in various ongoing ways to continue to accumulate coins by ongoing buying of coins (DCA, buying on dips, lump sum investing).. I am not referring to engaging in BTC accumulation methods that involve selling BTC and trying to buy back cheaper.. because those guys did not necessarily perform as well unless they got lucky and learned to stop engaging in those kinds of behaviors (or at least minimizing them to very small portions of the value of their BTC holdings - such as less than 10%).

Part of the rationale to mostly focus on Stamp prices is so that we are not going to be going out there and finding all the various extremes and quirks and representing them as if they are some kind of reflection of fair BTC prices.   Sure, sometimes there will be important points that can be made in regards to exchange variance or arbitrage opportunities, yet during extreme price movement periods, it's not very unusual to have a decent amount of variance and even extremes in some of the smaller exchanges.. even dips or spikes that look like a fat finger may have been in the explanatory picture.


You know that you want to say it.

Go on.


Say it.

I already mentioned nullius.. but there is still something different.

You may as well say yours, too.

Go on.

I would not phrase it like that, but hey maybe I am too long.

I have buy orders that go down to just slightly below $20k- but then at that time, I run out of fiat that has been dedicated to buy on the way down.. Don't get me wrong, I still have some fiat, but I already had been planning to use that for hookers lambos and blow, so in a variety of senses, I have to curtail my consumption and furthermore, I have already plugged a decent amount of extra cash in order to continue to buy on the way down (so if the BTC price goes down I am buying more BTC  than I had originally planned).

I would have felt way better for the 100-week moving average to have not to have been broken.. and sure, we might be able to get some kind of quick recovery - but just consider the way FUD and even hard attacks like to fall.. so we have a variety of liquidations taking place on bitcoin - that seem ridiculous for people to be selling so low, but then strategically, there are micro-actors who can either engage in more attacks on bitcoin through language and through dumping of fiat and various shorting instruments - sure they might not be successful.. but it could still take a while to unwind or even for bitcoin to bounce back..

Anyone want 2 years waiting for the BTC price to go back above the 100 week moving average - I am not saying that it is going to happen... but I am not so insulated as to either not giving any fucks or to even appreciate that bitcoin is going to be resilient no matter what, even if shit really goes bad in various macro-segments. 

Even if the BTC holdings of some of the longer-term bitcoiners may well still be up 30x or even 100x, there's gotta be some level of discomfort, no?


You have a pretty strong need to frame matters as if you had been right. 

Ultimately, I doubt that there really is any absolute objective right or wrong, but likely the extent to which any of us might be invested in a way that aligns with our individual circumstances.. and do I need to list the factors that need to be accounted, again?

Even if many of us have been practicing for years, the balancing of factors remains an ongoing and continuous challenge - probability y more likely during times of high volatility and high uncertainty - and even if you are gloating because you are even implying a bounce, here - as if you can cash out all your chips, do a mic drop and ride out into the sunset - gloating the whole way in regards to how you are better than everyone else.

hahahahaha

imagine that--- probably not even a pretty sight... since you still have your personality that you are taking with you...

 

Let's try to have a bit more balance, no?

Accordingly, since we do not know the future inevitably there are going to be trade-offs, and no real way to really get perfect outcomes or even something in which we would be able to say that "I was right" because there are quite a few variations, and even our particular current correction is not over yet, so it seems way too soon to be proclaiming being "right" even if maybe you might have made a BIG bet in this particular direction.

Your seemingly desire to be "right" causes me to wonder if you are even being honest in terms of your representations... but, hey you do you.

Are you deluded?  People here criticize your presentation style and your absolutism, so they are largely criticizing that you are way too certain in the probability assignments that you are making.  Plus likely some guys (and maybe a gal too?) find your need for recognition (as sorcerer) to be a wee bit annoying.

In other words, there are very few guys who would proclaim some extreme price event is not going to happen, and surely it is a matter of degree or low probability assignment.. and sure guys do talk in absolutes, but still the point is that they were not making any claim but instead responding to you and going in the opposite extreme in reaction to your outrageous claims.


Yes a lot of us compare patterns, but they are likely in need of some kind of presentation rather than just proclaiming x is going to happen because I would like x to happen. . and here are some squiggly lines that look like some other squiggly lines that already happened... and they also show that x is going to happen.. blah blah blah.

By when are you going to be opening up subscriptions to your BTC price guru services?  I am sure that many guys here would be interested, even if we may well be too shy to admit it.


Actually, if we are referring to the BTC price going down.. once certain support lines break, then the odds for further down can end up changing.. so something like $24.5k or even $23.5k  could end up having way higher odds now as compared with its odds a month or two ago.

For example, even though yesterday is likely not exactly a great example because we are in the middle of a lot of BTC price dynamics, so it can be quite impossible to put any kind of strong confidence in assigned percentages, but in my post from yesterday that happened while the price was just below $30k and the then low was $27,758,  I had placed odds of $25k or less to have been around 31%.... and yeah, of course, I am ball parking based on then current dynamics and information that was somewhat known by me.... but then now that $25k has almost been reached.. all of the odds of the uncertainty between $25k and $27,758 have been resolved because those prices have already happened... which thereby causes the odds for $25k or lower to increase..... perhaps even getting close to 40% or maybe even higher than 40%...

Yes, we can disagree about the assignment of probabilities, and for sure guys are going to criticize you way more for talking in absolutes about things in the future, even though laymen speak that way on a quite frequent basis.  Even if you assign 70% or 80% odds, and I ONLY assign 40% odds, I might not even argue with you about it as much as when you seem to be assigning something close to 100% odds... I still might argue with you about 80% odds, but surely not as much as when you are proclaiming that in the past, you had actually predicted the future.. which is so obvious on its face to be untrue, even if you ended up getting it right.  By the way, I predict that tomorrow the sun is going to come up.

I did read your whole post, and you are kind of meandering between decently good ideas and demonstrated knowledge of some of the trade-offs.. but you seem to come to quite a few problematic conclusions too, especially including ways that on a personal level you might be able to balance your willingness to take risks (and some of your disinclinations to personally manage it) and some of your strong ideological views which sometimes point out truths - but still does not necessarily lead you to proper risk management strategies...

Your fucking wordiness competition style kind of reminds me of nullius - and in the end you guys trying to compete with this cat do not seem to be able to muster up enough long-term stamina, even though you provide some decent short-term runs.. ..

... so sometimes nullius also had some pretty fucking decent ideas - and maybe some ideology that was too strong, but I really doubt that nullius would be playing around with margin.. though sure - people change too, and sometimes they experiment... .. and I am not even proclaiming that we cannot learn by experimenting, so long as we attempt to figure out some kind of balance rather that taking too strong of positions..

surely some traders do end up getting pay-offs from having some conviction and holding to kind of long term views about price thresholds that end up playing out in their favor - kind of in a kind of luck.. but also at the same time being willing to live with either outcome - up or down.. and then extremes happen from time to time as we know.. so it can frequently pay off to have some mechanisms in place to be able to profit from those extremes and just letting the price come to you.. and if it does not, you are willing to live with that outcome too.. I am reminded of LFC and also Ivomm in regards to these kind of longer term plays in which I don't really completely agree.. but they reach their proper balances on a personal level and matters end up working out to their favor.. ... but I am not sure if Ivomm has bought back in yet... and LFC maybe only partially or perhaps a decent amount and maybe only smaller parts remaining in the grand scheme of things..

And, surely bitcoin price dynamics are a moving target.

Yesterday I added DOWNity scenarios to one of my own reference price prediction posts (and you can see that at the bottom of this linked post) which is meant to help guys to attempt to think through these kinds of matters, and not necessarily cause anyone to have to come to the same conclusions regarding how much percentage should be assigned to each of the various price points for UP or down or even agreeing to any kind of time frame that they would expect such peak dips or peak rises to play out.. but there still can be some value in terms of attempting to figure out how much probability you feel that you should assign to various points and then if BIG events end up happening, then considering whether there might be some need to adjust the probabilities in terms of how far the price might go in one direction or another or how long it might take to play out.


This seemingly "inevitable" SP500 crashening that you see in the room with us is going to happen before or after the mid-term elections in the US of A?

 

Your idea was stupid at the time that you presented it, and it still is stupid, and the mere fact that the bitcoin price has subsequently moved to come in line with what your idea had projected it to do does not cause your presentation to have been less stupid at the time that you made it or even within subsequent reflection of it..

Perhaps, you even come off as dumber (and surely more petty) now because at various points you had admitted that your earlier idea was stupid (and ill-thought out), but now you are claiming that you had been correct all along.  How much more childish could anyone become? 

Perhaps a small prize is warranted, here?  like a slurpy? or an ice cream cone? or better yet, a kick in the pants.  speaking of pants.. anyone feeling robbed, recently?

In the past week and a half or so, I made a couple of restructurings of my BTC buy orders - based on some of the recent BTC price actions and the context in which those BTC price actions were happening.

So largely I added some value to the overall package of buys, but I also spread out the increments.. so surely several buy orders were filled within the upper $20ks, so far...

When I mention that we all make mistakes, I surely made a few calculation mistakes.. and then some orders were filled that locked me into aspects of the mistakes.

Over the years, I have proclaimed that any of us might realize that we have made some mistakes, and at the time that we make the mistake, we have to consider if there might be a variety of ways to balance out the mistake.. and just go with the flow of the mistake... so sometimes we might end up buying too much or too little at the wrong points, or the opposite of selling too much or too little at the wrong points.. .

Sometimes we click on the sell button rather than the buy button so we do the exact opposite that we had intended to do, and it seems that so long as we are not playing with large proportions of our overall BTC portfolio, there are likely going to be a variety of ways that we are going to be able to extract ourselves from such mistakes or at least to lessen the impact of such mistake..... and the vast majority of times, I have found some kind of way to either add or subtract buy/sell orders and then just let the price to come to me to allow me to reach a kind of balance in my psychology and finances... and sure I could get locked in a zone too that the price has to move a certain amount in one direction or the other in order to get me back to where I was.. and actually, don't get me wrong because I am not making up for the mistake by betting on one direction versus the other (except that in the long run of 4-years or longer that the BTC price is likely to be higher than it is today.. hahahahaha)...   

So almost every time my mistake ends up resolving no matter which direction the BTC price moves.. but the mistake may have caused either a larger gap or a few extra orders having to get filled to put me back into balance... and I suppose that part of the success is to have both identified that a mistake was made and then creating and implementing a solution that will play out once the BTC price comes to either point (in either price direction)...and one of the most inevitable things in bitcoin seems to be its volatility.. sooner or later the price is going to come to one side or the other of the price points that are set.. and I try not to create too unrealistic of expectations regarding how much the BTC price has to move for the correcting of the mistake to take place.  By the way, the BIGGER the mistake, the more likely that a person could get locked out of doing anything for a decently long period of time...

One example that I had previously described is that in 2015.. I had gotten so excited about the BTC price shooting up from $250 to $500, that I removed all my sell orders on the way up (as I was supposed to do) and when the BTC price got up to $500, I used a pretty large amount of cash that I had to spot buy.. but then the BTC price corrected back down to $300, and then it largely got stuck in the lower $400s for more than 6 months... so I was feeling kind of fucked that whole time.. no more money to buy if the BTC price went lower.. and I largely had to wait for the BTC price to go back above $500 before I could sell...   That was a pretty BIG mistake that I have not really repeated (or at least I don't recall making as big of a mistake since then)... so I continuously try to learn from mistakes like that.. even though I will also state that I mostly locked myself out, but I still did dabble with small amounts during those 6 months that BTC prices were stuck below $500.. I just set myself on a kind of restricted budget that was largely NOT resolved until either the BTC price went above $500 or went below $300.. which we may well know that it ended up resolving to the upside.. and no problem for me.. but I could have lived with a resolution to the downside too.. but overall I have always structured that I am way better off for the BTC price to go up rather than down, even though I have a resolution even if the BTC price goes down, I have some actions that I can employ in order to take advantage of the price going down.. even if it is not the preferred direction.... 

That's a good question.


Hm?


You deserve a batslappening for providing confusion during our current difficult times...




referring to wee poor widdow king daddy.. not having a good day.














Surely not becoming behavior.

You really deserve a batslappening for that.

For sure, I am not referring to balls to the walls employment of margin when I am suggesting that there are ways to structure margin and use it to help you to prepare for price moves in either direction.

I don't use those kinds of techniques myself - even though I have used various kinds of debt to buy BTC... ..

You could imagine that if someone has 1 BTC that he bought at $40k.. To protect himself for the downside, he might enter a short of 0.05 BTC which would be 1/20th of the value of his holdings.. So if the BTC price goes up to $42k he loses the 0.05 BTC but his remaining 1 BTC goes up in value an equivalent amount so he ends up breaking even in dollar value, but if the BTC price goes down to $36k or lower, he could end up cashing in and making decent money on the .05 BTC that he used to short even though his 1BTC goes down in value.. that is what I mean by ways to structure in order to use the margin to prepare for either price direction, even though I may have gotten some of the details wrong since shorting BTC and even using margin is not part of something that I actually do.

You make less money when you hedge with margin, but you are better prepared for either price direction if that is what you are wanting to do.

You do not have to use margin to also prepare yourself for either price direction by selling small amounts on the way up and buying on the way down.. but for sure, I am not suggesting to sell large amounts.. you sell something less than 1%  for every 10% the BTC price goes up and you also only sell from your BTC profits... and you are also prepared to accept not buying back if the BTC price never comes back down.. so in that regard, it would help your situation to only engage in such practice if you are already overinvested into BTC and decently already in profits when you are regularly selling on the way up.


You are likely not stupid, even though we might question if there is much of a difference between being stupid and insane or even unable to control your emotions...

In any event, you seem to have the ability to structure your systems in advance but you fail/refuse to do it.

I pretty much already described what you need to do in terms of an overall long term strategy.. but you don't want to do it.. so what else can anyone do?  You can keep saying I almost struck it rich.  I almost made up for all of my losses of my last several gambles.  Maybe it does not even matter if you actually end up winning, because after you win you will just gamble it away on the next bet anyhow, no?


Don't use debt then.  DCA is a good foundational approach as well as combining it with lump sum investing and buying on dips, but DCA remains  the pillar around which those other strategies are built.. whether you might be front loading your DCA or tweaking it up or down fro time to time in order to attempt to prepare for buying on dips..or letting off on buying when BTC prices rise.. and of course, way more options come available to you when your portfolio grows much larger and you get into significant profits... which surely could take a lot of time, even quite a bit more than the 4 years that you say that you have been into BTC.. I have been in more than twice as long and surely each cycle feels better, but at the same time, we all make mistakes along the way too that will take away from some of our abilities to feel 100% confident.. but surely higher levels of confidence do seem like they come and surely if you have spent a decent amount of time building your portfolio, there should also be some reservations to gamble away large amounts of it too.. so there may well be a tendency for guys (and gal) who have built relatively large amounts of value to stay away from very much gambling or playing around and even 10% of your portfolio will seem like too much to be fucking around with.

So the longer that you are in, the more likely that you should be in profits.. especially with such a great asset like BTC and it is too bad, death_wish, that you are playing around so much that you are converting an almost inevitable winner into a loser.


Well you are not likely to win or to fix your ways if you keep on playing around with playing with margin that might well convert an investment into a gamble.. which even if win many times, if you do not stack away your winnings, you may well end up losing all of your winnings on one bad results.. which seems to be a frequent story with gamblers.. they are winning and winning and winning and even to make up for earlier losses... but also at some point, you cannot make up for all the time that you could have been stacking with a more solid (but less exciting) formula for success.

Yes.. that seems to be an accurate statement of the law...

But, since you did not provide a link, I will assume that such statement did not really happen..

 


 

Well, you realize that I believe in DCA.. but I also believe in buying on the dip..

Just like milewilda mentioned, none of us can be sure how much of a dip is enough of a dip.. and then another thing is that we might run out of money if we buy too much and then it dips further..

So there are likely guys who bought in the lower $50ks after the dip from $69k, and then they bought in the $40ks and $30ks and now we are approaching the $20ks.. so if they still have money, shouldn't they be attempting to figure out how much to attempt to balance buying on further dips or just DCA'ing.

DCA surely is the best of strategies to initially get in.. but then once in, there can be more abilities to be more discretionary regarding when to buy and how much of a dip is enough.

I doubt that it would be correct to proclaim that ONLY one strategy would be appropriate, because let's say that someone has $100k in various investments (but none in bitcoin), and then s/he c comes across an additional $10k that s/he could invest into bitcoin.. there could be a variety of strategies in terms of how to divide that $10k to get part of it in without necessarily waiting for an additional dip when there may well be quite a bit of uncertainty regarding whether more dip is going to happen or not.

Accordingly, lump sum investing, DCA and buying on dip are the main three methods that the person with a new $10k should be considering and attempting to figure out how each (or all three) of those methods might work well for him/her both psychologically and financially... accounting for all of his/her individual factors which are cashflow, other investments, timeline, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, time, skills and abilities to strategize, plan and to learn along the way which also might involve tweaking strategies from time to time reallocating, trading, use of financial instruments and leverage... and of course, those factors listed in the beginning are more important and basic rathe than attempting to employ more advanced techniques at the end of the list.

To me it appears that Heater has given you the most fundamental and soundest of advices.. and you choose to completely ignore it instead of attempting to deal with reality.

Let me see if I can explain a bit further.

If our current price is $30.3k, and if we are in a bull market, then the odds of breaking up are greater than the odds of breaking down.. but then there is still a matter of degree.

To me it seems that after we have gone below the 100-week moving average (which is at $35k) and we have now been there for more than 4 days.. we have transitioned into a bear market... so the odds are greater to break down than up... but still how far we break down is not exactly known in advance, either.

Even if you have your doubts about whether we are in a bear market and you believe that we are in a bull market.. you still are not going to get much higher than 50/50 odds in terms of breaking up instead of down.  I will throw out some numbers, and for sure you do not  have to agree with them because you can assign your own numbers, but still in the end, you should be attempting to allocate your portfolio in such a way that mirrors your view of the probabilities rather than completely ignoring scenarios that you do not like - because otherwise you would be gambling rather than investing (or playing a roulette wheel)..

So consider the below assigned percentages as possible Downity scenario peaks from where we are at currently and where the bottom would happen.. and at this time, I am going to ascribe our down odds at about 53% right now.. even though I am just stabbing in the dark really...  But in the end, all my assignments of probability numbers (even though somewhat out of my ass) on the way down add up to 53%

Anyhow, here's a possible assignment of where the bottom might occur from here $30.3k-ish as I type.

above $29k - most timid of bearish scenarios  -   about 9% odds

$27.5k to $29k  - plausible bearish  -   about 12.5% odds

$25k to $27.5k  - could happen bearish  -   about 13.5% odds

$22.5k to $25k  - pretty severe bearish  -   about 7.5% odds

$20k to $22.5k  - worser case bearish  -   about 5.5% odds

$17.5k to $20k  - a bit of a stretch bearish  -   about 2.5% odds

$13k to $17.5k  - overly bearish -   about 1.5% odds

$10k to $13k  - way overly bearish -   about 0.5% odds

below $10k  - not very likely but possible -   less than 0.5% odds

By the way I hate to go too far over 50% in terms of my assignment of bearishness even though it feels that we have ongoing downity momentum for now, and I have not really figured out exactly what kind of UPpity would cause us to get out of our current transition into a bear market.. for sure getting above the 100-week moving average would likely be helpful.. and maybe doing so by more than 10% might be something that might be plausible or just staying above such 100-week moving average for a week or longer might be enough?  I have not figured it out in my own head, yet.. regarding what level of UP I would need to suggest that the bear market is done or that we are back in a bull market... for sure, there is a bit of a lagging indicator aspect to those kinds of bear/bull market assessments, too.  


You still should be attempting to deal with the reality of where you believe the price might go and to set yourself up so that you are prepared for those possibilities.  If you are ONLY betting that the price will go up, you likely have a 50/50 chance of losing that.. and so if you are prepared for various levels of down scenarios in advance, then you have a plan to account for those down scenarios, even if you may well assign the probability numbers differently.  For sure, not everyone is going to assign probabilities the same, but if you treat everything below $29k as if they were zero chances, you seem to have pretty decent chances of getting recked.. and my above chart shows below $29k as having 41% chances of happening (if you add all the numbers up)... and yeah, I might not be correct, but just trying to assign some kind of framework to attempt to help to snap you (and others perhaps) back into reality that the numbers for down are not zero.. merely because we have already seen prices as low as $29k which would be 58% down from our $69k top.


Fuck that nonsense.

You seem to be lecturing Biodom, but you seem to be the one who is in a pickle and having some issues about how you are managing your risk...

Nothing wrong with accumulating bitcoin, but you also need to manage your risk too..

It seems that the best strategies are to attempt to tailor to your own psychological and financial situation in terms of both figuring out a sufficiently aggressive approach while NOT overdoing it....

In terms of BTC accumulation, I always consider dollar cost averaging to be the most important because it allows for getting in almost right away (after setting up accounts - wallets, or whatever to be used to get exposure) and then to be able to learn as you go.. to then be able to tweak your strategies.. and surely the other two main methods that can supplement DCA is lump sum investing and buying on dips...

Surely it can take a long time for anyone to figure out the better ways to attempt to tailorize those methods to his/her situation..and surely sometimes when someone is really dumb (not meant as an insult) or confused about what to do, DCA can serve as a kind of means to do something with a relatively small amount while maybe studying one's own situation and to adjust the approach in the future.

Fair enough for pointing that out.. you fuck #nohomo....  in terms of my NOT catching that technicality in the wording.

Nonetheless, it seems to me that I still made my overall and valid point in regards to why "daily" is problematic for a lot of normies, even if it might well be a workable approach for ImThour in this time in his life.... perhaps?  Perhaps?  if not, at least I mentioned one of the significant ways that I become worried in regards towards attempts to spout out ideas in regards to why I am concerned about buying too frequently.. especially when potentially dealing with small amounts and flat fees that some exchanges have..and the situations of poor people to not let the perfect become the enemy of the good as I already mentioned.

Of course, I do not know ImThour's exact details beyond what he said and even to the extent that I may have read or understood all - or any -  of the details that he might have actually already pointed out that I ignored... hahahahaha.

Last time I checked, this thread is NOT only about some personal quirks in the ways that guys might structure their BTC accumulation and/or portfolio management strategies - or even gotchas about some technicalities.. including that people do sometimes say daily cost averaging .. even though ImThour did not say that, even though he said that he has structured his purchases on a daily basis - so in that regard, there is fair game in the actual topic and the points that I was striving to make inspite of some technicalities that you spotted.. and surely, nothing meant to be personal in regards to ImThour - except maybe a few wee little digs in here and there because he quite likely deserves it.. based on reasons..... (that might be his past conduct, present conduct or things that he might do or think about doing in the future)  hahahahahahaha 

It does not hurt to attempt to crowd source this kind of information in this thread, and surely it is a topical subject matter - and there are a lot of guys here who do not fuck around with margin trading... but we have quite a bit of varying experiences.. and there might be some ways to reasonably unravel some of your positions.. and surely some guys in this thread do play around with margin trading so they may well be able to hone in on your specific situation... but surely ultimately there are going to be discretionary decisions no matter what and you are ultimately going to have to figure out if it is better to just let matters play out or to early close some of your positions - if that is practical under current market conditions.

By the way, when I say things like bears are going to try to push the BTC price down and they are going to try to keep the BTC price down as low as they can, and for long as they are able to do it, yet that statement also does not concede that they are going to be successful, even if that is what they want to do.  We have a whole hell of a lot of circumstances (situations) in bitcoin in which the bears and everyone else and their dogs thought that BTC price was going to continue to go down, but the bottom was already surprisingly in.. so a large number of folks (even the vast majority) can end up getting surprised as hell that the BTC price ends up reversing when it seemed that it was inevitably poised to go further down to some price point that ends up not even close to happening.

You may realize also that even though I might spout out some ideas about what I believe might happen, it is very difficult to get me off of 50/50 predictions... and if I lean one direction or another then many times, it is only a few percentage points at best in terms of leaning one way versus the other way... so sure, if I believe that we are in a bull market then I believe that all breaks from consolidation would have slightly greater odds for up than down.. and the opposite would be true in a bear market... so even if currently it appears that we are in a bear market (because the BTC price has spent a few days below the 100-week moving average, which is at $35k), then that would mean that the odds for breaking down would be greater than the odds for breaking up.. but even if the odds are greater for breaking down, that does not even mean that they are going to end up breaking down, rather than up, and it still is possible that the bottom is already in... and surely guys are going to assign odds differently for various price points, and the further down that you expect the price to go, the lower the odds are going to be that that the lower prices will be met.  

Hopefully that makes sense... and my own way of structuring any buy or sell orders that I do is to attempt to structure them in a way that I am emotionally neutral about whether the BTC price goes up or down in the short term - even though I expect that at any point in time, 4 years from now, the BTC price should be higher than it is.. but not even that is guaranteed.. and I am ultimately bullish about the upside potential of bitcoin, but I also try NOT to structure my own finances in any kind of way that I am overly desperate for UP to happen. .even though I believe that bitcoin is the best investment that anyone can get into.. but that also does not guarantee that it is ultimately going to perform as is expected and hoped.. even though it seems to be better than any other asset (in my current opinion).

Another thing that I tend to do is to attempt to unwind any mistakes that I get into in a kind of incremental way... so if I see that I got myself into an uncomfortable kind of pickle situation, then I attempt to figure out a way to get myself out of such pickle situation by incremental actions.. and surely there may also be situations in which it is better NOT to behave incrementally, and sometimes there are situations in which the bandaid should be pulled off quickly rather than slowly.. and each person may well judge the situation differently and the extent to which an incremental or a rapid approach might be better for the particular situation that exists after accounting for all the relevant psychological and financial factors.



That approach of never selling can work if you do not over invest.  If you do not over invest, then you should be ok. as long as you have at least a 4-10 year time horizon... So there are quite a few BTC HODLers who started out trying to play around with buying and selling, and many realized that it is better to not get so worried about trying to time the market and just establish a regular buying practice...

So if you are wanting to fuck around with selling and trying to buy back cheaper, I am not going to be very helpful in that regard because my own personal philosophy is that you should not be selling any of your BTC until you get to a position that you are over invested.. and then once you are over invested, then you can figure out some selling strategies that are incremental.. and in that regard, if you sell any BTC then you should be prepared that you may well never ever be able to buy back any of the BTC that you sold... and sure, if the price ends up going down then so be it.. but you should not be selling for the purpose of buying back cheaper but only selling because you have a reasonable system to establish that you have over invested into BTC and you are able to shave off some BTC here and there on the way up.



Of course, I am not going to be able to relate to your having had got yourself into such a situation.. so you surely might be out of my area of expertise because it sounds as if you were engaging in risk taking practice that are beyond what I would have done.. and gosh, I am not even saying that I might not gamble from time to time, so I know how to do it, but I tend to do it with relatively small amounts so I don't end up in a situation in which I cannot cover whatever bet I had ended up making when the direction of the bet had ended up going against me... I am not without experience in that direction.. just a matter of degree to which I would let something go seems quite different calculation from what you seem to have been doing.



It is not easy to know your exact particulars, but let's say that you borrowed $45k when the BTC price was at that price so it was the equivalent of 1 BTC... So you had to always keep at least double the collateral.. so the minimum was to keep 2 BTC, so you wanted to hedge for the BTC price going down, so you ended up putting 3 BTC, but once the BTC price went below $30k, your 3 BTC became insufficient as collateral.. so you either had to put up more or to have your position closed.. and you would lose the 3 BTC that you already put as collateral... but if you did not have any more BTC then you failed to sufficiently prepare and if you had put up 4 BTC then you could have been sufficiently collateralized until the BTC price got down to $22.5k..

I guess part of my point is that you have to both understand the terms that you are agreeing to, and also to be able to cover in the event that the BTC price goes way lower than expected.. Maybe you thought that the worst case would be that the BTC price went down to $35k. but you ended up being wrong.. so anyhow, it is really not good to get into those kinds of complicated relations, and it is difficult to know exactly how you can unravel yourself from a position that already would end up being at a loss if you unravel when the BTC price is going opposite to expectations.

By the way, of course, I know that I probably got various specifics of your pickle wrong.. but just trying to describe some of the pickles that guys can end up getting into.. and sometimes the BTC price drops so fast that they are not able to cover their position.. and sometimes also there are shenanigans going on, as you already acknowledge that you are aware of some of the seeming shenanigans that happen (or seem to happen).



For sure we should always be attempting to prepare ourselves for extremes - even if they seem to be on the lower end of probabilities... so it is difficult enough to deal with these kinds of extremes without margin or without bets.. so the losses are magnified when dealing with various kinds of leveraging.

Without even playing with margin, historically in bitcoin, I have had so many times that I try to prepare for the most extreme dips.. and frequently I feel pretty good because there seem to be always so many guys who had run out of money only on a 20% dip or something like that... and we know that bitcoin not only does extremes, business sometimes it does extremes that go beyond the extremes that are on the seemingly worse case scenarios.

Anyhow, so I have so many times reserved money to be able to continue to buy on the way down, and yes, I understand that you have put yourself into a magnifying loss situation, and those folks manipulating the BTC price down are incentivized by guys like you to shake you out of your position and out of your BTC.. so once everyone (or almost everyone) is shaken out that is easiest to shake, then the price will go up at that point.. and we cannot really know how far.. and sometimes when the BTC price drops way the fuck lower than anyone thought that was possible, then additional weak hands start to sell at that point, and then cause the BTC price to drop even lower based on the lower being able to trigger lower, even though continuously we start to believe that there are no more weak hands to shake out, but the bears keep shaking the tree over and over and over, and then pretty soon a bunch more weak hands fall out and rewarding them even more than they thought to be possible.

By the way, less than a week ago, I had already adjusted my buy orders, and one of my recent posts caused me to feel that I had to adjust them again.. My talking through my own situation caused me to realize that if I adjust one more time, I will feel even better than I had felt when I adjusted last week... so for sure, even for me, when I thought that all my buy orders were set... I made one more adjustment to make myself feel even better.. and fuck yeah, I hope that the BTC price does not go down anymore, but we also know that the trend is your friend.. and it can sometimes take a bit of time to assure that all the weak hands are shaken out.. and furthermore, I like to say fuck you to shitcoins, but even despite some of the dynamics of ethereum creating various of its own on and off ramps from fiat and not having to go through bitcoin, there still tends to be quite a bit of overlap between various value bouncing around in and out of various kinds of shitcoins that can have effects on bitcoin, as well.. so even the purgening of the froth in the shitcoin space can end up having some kinds of drags on the BTC price.. that may have to play out for a period of time before getting to a state that BTC might be able to continue to go up.. rather than having some negative pressures upon it coming from aspects of the shitcoin space, too.




Seems that I am having some troubles relating to the extremes of this, even though I do understand that the more shit that you are involved in, then the more complicated it likely becomes.. and so in that regard, we surely are not the place to be getting into discussions about how to manage various shitcoins... it is bad enough that sometimes they do have various intertwined relations with your bitcoin holdings.

There are other guys in this thread who ended up getting out of all their shitcoins, but again, it could take a while to get out if you are nervous about selling losing positions in those various shitcoin projects, but sometimes guys do sell several shitcoins at a loss or maybe just minimize the number of shitcoins and end up having the vast majority in BTC.. that's for you to figure out, and surely, no one in this thread really wants to get into discussions about which shitcoins happen to be less shitty than other shitcoins..

That's a conversation that would piss a lot of us (including yours truly) off.

I am already getting pissed off, just thinking about shitcoins... and worse (including a budding headache - chest burning and breathing problems) to have to even consider talking about them in this thread.



I doubt that any of us are really in a position to counsel you in emotional kinds of ways, and sometimes people can be really mean on the internet.. so I doubt that it is a good place to be talking about killing yourself, even though your user-name says that, and also you keep talking about it.. so you may well need to seek some counseling on that topic, and I doubt that many people will be helpful in an anonymous thread on the internet..

Furthermore, there are many of us (including yours truly) who really dig into harassing members more severely when they are showing emotional weakness or they are getting emotional about bitcoin related topics here.. so again, it is probably not a great place to talk about matters, if you are really in a state of emotional instability.

For sure, I am not saying that any of the matters are easy, and of course, if you can put yourself into a decent financial situation then that surely helps your psychology.. but if you are in a real big pickle it could take you many years to rebuild your financial position in order that you might start to feel psychologically confident, again (if you ever were psychologically confident).



Just because you never sold does not mean that selling might be the right move, and even if it is a matter of figuring out some ways to shave some off here or there.

In early April, I was talking to a couple about cashflow issues and there were some concerns about whether some bitcoin needed to be cashed out.. and there was a difference of opinion between them.  Initially I mentioned a possible compromise to sell a bit each quarter, so that by the end of the year, there is a certain amount that is sold, and that presumed to split an amount into 4 parts and to sell that amount each quarter.. and sure the 1st quarter was already gone, but then I was told that the money needed to be available by summer.. so they were having disagreements, and so now BTC is worth nearly 35% less than it was when we had that conversation. and probably they should have sold half of the amount that they needed around that time, but instead, I believe that they sold none because they could not come to an agreement... so yeah, it is not easy, and it can surely affect people in negative ways when they are engaging in behavior that seems to rise to the level of gambling rather than investing.. or even prudently taking some money off the table if there are needs for the cash within a relatively soon timeline.


That does not sound like the correct way to be thinking about matters, even though I know that there can be some rationale to make sure that you do not sell at a loss..

but there should not be that level of emotional attachment.. even though we know that sometimes it can be difficult to replace bitcoin once you sell them.. and to be able to get back the same amount that you had... but the whole matter should be weighed and balanced... rather than doing something to make your situation even worse.

Yeah, ultimately the decision is yours..  but it can surely be problematic to be too stubborn whether the right thing is to shave a bit or not could end up resulting in the wrong decision, so instead of all or nothing sometimes there may well be a need to figure out a balance that you are able to live with and accept no matter if the BTC price goes up or down from here.


That is not right for you to be bringing up life or death issues in a forum/thread like this... you end up causing guys to be scared to talk about the substance.. so if you cannot handle presenting matters without those kinds of threats, then you might need to take your discussion somewhere else.. because it is not fair to us to have to deal with anyone saying that they are going to kill themselves or anybody else.. we should be able to talk freely, here.. and without such life and death pressures.. even if you might be really contemplating such.. it does not seem right to bring up such life/death angles on topics here..



There's going to be risks no matter what, and ultimately each of us has to balance ourselves with our choices.. if you are not already set up in a way that you are prepared for either direction, then your goal should be to get yourself to such a status.. even if you cannot get there right away.. and how to do it is not always clear.


mindrust did not have completely bad reasons at the time, and sure he made mistakes by not buying back in, and also by selling everything.. but still I really doubt that you can assert that mindrust was a total fuck up because he thought that he was making the proper balance that worked for himself.. even though he had kind of got himself way too emotional... which in that regard there may well be some similar aspects to your case... and some of us were not really nice to mindrust.. it is not easy to be nice because opinions can get strong.. and names can be called... you ultimately have to figure out the balance for yourself and to live with your choices..



we cannot get away from the fact that bitcoins have a dollar value that might be going down in the short term.. we do not know, but both dollars and bitcoin is relevant.. You do not remove yourself from the problem by purely suggesting that you are ONLY going to consider bitcoins as bitcoins because that really does not get you anywhere in terms of the real dilemma that you are facing.


I don't know... you likely have to figure out what are the odds from your own perspective of various price scenarios playing out, and try to be honest about it and to attempt to prepare according to those assignments.. If you lie to yourself about various scenarios, and they end up playing out. then surely you will suffer more from that kind of lack of preparations.



Maybe you are not supplying enough facts?

You should be able to calculate the dollars and the BTC that you would have at various price points, whether looking at the price going up or the price going down... so if you never want to have zero BTC no matter what, but you know that if the price goes down to certain price points such as $25k or $20k, then you would end up with zero BTC, then you may have to calculate the ways to best preserve even under relatively extreme scenarios...

Don't get me wrong.  I am not suggesting to put more than 1% of value into scenarios that you consider to be 1%, but sometimes you have to be careful too.. regarding getting your assignments wrong, and then the price ends up going there and you have zero preparations for 1% scenarios..   So sometimes (or maybe frequently) you have to try to make these preparations in advance.  So of course, if you had not adequately prepared (like that seems to be your current situation), then your options become way less than if you had adequately prepared.. .. so yeah, you already know that you cannot go back, but you have to deal with where you are at and attempting to prepare yourself for any scenarios that could happen from here.. rather than projecting some kind of fantasyland scenario and then projecting from that place.. because then you end up gambling and ONLY being prepared for one direction rather than being prepared for both (or either).



That sounds like crazy.. and stressful.

Remember the expression.. a failure to plan is a plan to fail..

so it seems to me that you gotta try to get in front of your matters a bit better than you are (or you have been)..

and of course, there would be costs involved when you get in front of matters.



I don't feel equipped to answer that kind of a question... .or to be adequately able to weigh the trade offs..

surely some trade offs are financial and some are psychological..



 I don't know if there is a least bad option.... like as if you are trying to pick the best option.. .. sometimes, there could be ways to incrementally make some sales if the price goes up in order to take some risk off the table, even if you do not take all of the risk off the table.

I remember one time, I had expenses coming in and I had to sell towards the bottom, so I ended up shaving something like 0.5% extra of my BTC holdings, but I did it on price rises and it was less painful... I believe that I only ended up getting about 1/2 or maybe 1/3 of that back by the time I wrote it off as a loss...

My point is that sometimes you can make some incremental adjustments to help to lessen some of the risk that you are in, even if you might not remove all of the risk that you are in.. but you could cut it down a bit..



 Sure. sometimes you are going to be upset either way, but you still take some action to help the situation to maybe prepare yourself from a bad scenario that ends up not happening.  I have done that too... I made a decision to sell a few BTC at various increments towards the bottom to prepare for further bottom. and the price ended up going up and never coming back down ever again.. but my decision to shave some extra off did provide me some downside insurance, even though I ended up with fewer BTC and I did not end up using the insurance.


yes. get to a certain comfortable place (at least temporarily) and then take a nap and eat a bit... or the other way around..