Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[empowering]

Opening scene to There Will Be Blood=

https://youtu.be/T3O-OEem3XM

[empowering]

If you ever feel like watching "Power of the Dog" on the other hand......... I recommend that you just put razor blades in your eyes instead, most useless pile of shyte film I have ever seen..... just fucking awful.
 

[empowering]

*whimper*

Hey, it's gonna be ok. We're in bull mode now. Look at the 1hr. Up almost a full %.

 

[Gachapin]

Talking about good and bad flicks...

I propose one that's both, ultimately bad and brilliantly good at the same time

Most of you will probably know..


Tommy Wiseau's - The Room


Spoiler alert !!!!   

The Room | Best Moments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKAwXLVxuZQ

[Hamza2424]

Just Remember It's BTC and people made the same folks on 2018 and then 2021 was a dream for them now its similar to that consider it buddy 2018=2022 and then 2023-2024 will be a reality for you.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cygan]

 

[Hueristic]

Wow I woke up proudhon and the greatest bullish statement he has made since 2012.

Is this the end of btc?

At least I got my solar array approvals this week.

my power cost dropped bigly.

this is so 2018.

I found out the secret how proudhon used to calculate bitcoin price before...



But now I guess he/she using some new logic.

I trust him fully with my money. No questions asked.

80x?

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

You need like one of those shallow girlfriends that talks a lot, fast and does weird sounds while it expresses themselves. That way you will get to understand me and wtf sh!t I'm talking about.

Juanita understands me, (maybe) sometimes.. /eyeroll    

hahahaha

pathetic, Save the RF.. to be using the above bolded piece of information to plea your case.


Side note:
I will give you a tiny bit of credit, goofball (I am a tiny bit sorry to feed the brain-deranged troll with only about two or three working braincells, here) to have had caused some relatively longer term members here to have had actually believed that you had been talking about something significant/meaningful or even plausible in the real world (rather than merely in your fantasy world).. even if you were only able to juggle that ball for only one or two posts .. hahahahaha  aka a short time.

For me, those kinds of interactions seem to show why the nonsense of some of the members (and their posts) needs to be kept in check, because otherwise from time to time, there are going to be some members (even seemingly smart ones) who will believe that there might be a source for such information or even plausible facts and logic to support such crap that you tend to spout out on a fairly regular basis.. it's the keep throwing shit at the wall and some of it is likely to stick approach for sure.  

[AnotherAlt]

Explanation

ChartBuddy be like:

What's Up Fuckers?
How do you feel?

[AnotherAlt]

Not 100% Dead yet. recover to $0.90 Range from $0.68.

The Questions are made by Aaron Choo:

"If $UST achieves its' peg again, will the community still have confidence in it?"

[Hueristic]

Yup.... there will be blood

Added to my list.

[Hueristic]

Now, I want to kill myself... or at least, take up alcoholism as a hobby.

(Someone, please quote me.)


Before anyone asks...

The liquidator would have dumped much, much more than I shaved off at the bottom.

So, yes, I was lucky to sell at the bottom.

I hope that was the bottom.

Nice cheap drunk, ask any Ruskie.

https://www.thespruceeats.com/great-brands-of-inexpensive-vodka-759244




Goes well with ramen.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

How not to own bitcoin lesson 101.

https://twitter.com/carlbmenger/status/1523221677756514304?s=21

For sure, I understand the point of the meme... but at the same time, there is some practicality of NOT letting the perfect be the enemy of the good.

In that regard, each person needs to figure out both how they are going to start to get exposure to bitcoin, and then if they do end up getting bitcoin exposure (which surely is recommended for everyone in this here world who has at least a 4-year investment timeline), another matter would be figuring out at what point, that bitcoin needs to be personally held rather than being held by third parties.

I doubt that the answer is that absolutely no value should be kept on exchanges (or with third parties), and surely some folks are structured in their wealth in a variety of ways that they might not feel any need to hold much if any bitcoin privately (even though recently we had seen some of the seemingly desperate measures that governments might take from time to time, and thus also influencing third-parties to potentially interfere or rob.. access to value).

For sure, systematically, bitcoin is way less powerful when folks hold it with third parties, but still the answer of how much to hold privately and how much to hold with third parties is not likely to have all or nothing  calculations for a lot of people who may well be wanting to keep their options open.. .. and also trying to keep a leg in both worlds while we are continuing to transition more and more away from  the various fiat institutions including that it could take 50 to 100 years to really have a meaningful transition away from fiat institutions.. so I doubt that the timeline of many of us is going to be holding and waiting for that long into the future - so a practical approach for a large number of folks from a variety of demographics (and economic levels) would likely be trying to ongoingly figuring out prudent and practical ways to ongoingly straddle both the fiat systems world while getting various kinds of (hopefully ongoingly increasing) exposure to bitcoin.

Well isn't BTC being a good sport, giving all those who didn't dare to buy last July and September a new opportunity to get in.

Exactly!!!!!!

Try to consider the positive... even though some of those fucks do not really deserve to get in at these prices, but whatever, bitcoin is going to do what it is going to do.. and cannot really do too much about it except maybe just attempt to tailor our own plans so that we are not feeling screwed financially or psychologically by whatever place we might be and where-ever we might be going in the short-term.

Regarding the short-term, who knows? 

I did not really anticipate having to concede that we have likely transitioned into a bear market, and for my own assessment, the 100-week moving average seems to be such a line .. which is at $35k.. and we have been below it for nearly three days now... so kind of difficult to deny once the price dropped below that point, and so far we are stuck below it..

So then one of the questions likely becomes how long are we going to stay below the 100-week moving average and for how long are these sales prices going to last?  just for a few more days?  a few weeks?  Months?  more than 6 months?..

I am personally not wanting to be a naysayer, but weeks or months does not sound unrealistic.. even though there does remain a possibility (for sure less than 50% and maybe even less than 40%) that the price bounces back above the 100-week moving average in less than a week... 3 days so far.. how long is it going to take?  BIG question, and I would not presume to know.. but I do know that once there is an assessment of being in a bear market, then the presumption should be that any consolidation break out will be to the downside.. and surely the opposite is true in a bull market.. so here we are.      - likely in a place that the vast majority of us do not want to be.. because the vast majority of us are into bitcoin because we want NGU to actually play out in the real world, not just in our hopes.

[HI-TEC99]

Wow I woke up proudhon and the greatest bullish statement he has made since 2012.

Is this the end of btc?

At least I got my solar array approvals this week.

my power cost dropped bigly.

this is so 2018.

He made an equally bullish statement in 2011, and he was right. The price went up.

Ok, guys, now that I've bought in again I'm switching to bull mode.  Rally on!  The fundamentals are sound.  Notice how I've changed my avatar to reflect my new position.

I'm just waiting for him to switch to his bullish avatar.

[JayJuanGee]

Sup everyone, just wanted to tell you that my Daily DCA is now active till 2023.
I will be buying daily for the next 237 days. Lowest BTC will go according to my analysis which I posted on 27th Jan is $24k which is 200 Weekly Moving Average.

If we take time into consideration for the price to meet the Weekly 200 MA, it will be near about $24k.
This changes the price drop from current price from 46% to 30%.

Have a good week ahead, happy buying.

Maybe you are hitting on another developing pet peeve of mine?

Daily cost averaging seems to be a misleading attempt at a euphemism... and the term is not daily cost averaging, it is dollar cost averaging (this correction about the "proper" term does not have to do with the dollar.. but instead getting away from expectation that there is any kind of meaningful justification to be maniacally in regards to buying every day.. which is more of an advanced practice rather than an entry-level practice).

In bitcoin, I personally recommend accumulators (and even newbies) to figure out something on a weekly basis (or maybe bi-weekly if they are just coordinating it when their paycheck comes in, if that is how they get paid).. but sure, daily might work too - even though there seems to be too many potentialities that small amounts could fuck you up in terms of unnecessarily causing your fees to be way more than they need to be (the fee level and way of doing fees of course, vary from exchange to exchange).  

Sometimes even weekly DCA does not work for folks in lower income locations because there might be a need to get over a certain value threshold in order to cause the fees to be more effective and less burdensome...

For example, if you are able to do any amount and the fees are just a percentage - like 1% or even high fees like 3%, then it may not matter so much if you do the transactions more frequently, such as daily, but some places have a flat charge and then also a percentage after charging the flat charge.. .. so maybe there is a flat charge of $1 or $5.. or something that causes a need to attempt to lump sum rather than having a whole bunch of small transactions and ongoingly paying such a flat fee that eats into how much bitcoin you are able to get through each transaction and even overall if you add up your transactions over time you end up getting royally fucked by fees in some of those situations that have flat fee charges to supplement percentage charges.  

Seems to me that we should not want poor people to get even more poor merely because they are failing to adequately strategize ways to attempt to lessen (or minimize if possible) the various fees that they might end up paying... so fuck the misleading description of daily cost averaging because that is not the proper term... it is called dollar cost averaging...

Ps... otherwise congrats on having had established a timeline for regular and ongoing BTC purchases.. for a decent amount of time into the future (that's something like 8 months) .. that seems like a great recommendation that can apply to a large number of folks who have not yet established a decently meaningful/significant amount of BTC (relatively speaking of course).. .. and surely, as a supplement, for those who have not gotten close to fuck you status, it may well be better to consider that they will be DCAing into bitcoin for the next 4-10 years or more.. and of course, devil is in the details regarding how aggressive they are able to be and if they have other investments or if they are just getting started with relatively small amounts of ongoing and regular BTC buys.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cygan]

[death_wish]

I mussed the image.  Image tag added (and edited into the below quote).  Today is not a good day for me!  Someone, please quote me again - oh, thanks, it's already done.

Now, I want to kill myself... or at least, take up alcoholism as a hobby.

(Someone, please quote me.)



[...]

This is the fate of EVERYONE involved in long/short trading. The average trader looking at the charts and then his portfolio [...]

I want to make one thing deadly clear:

I was NOT margin-trading BTC.  If I were doing that, I would now be in high profit because I would have sold at $48k (and maybe shorted it).

A few months ago, I bought on margin between $35k and $43k.  Some things went wrong, with complications from other transactions; leverage wound up higher than planned, but still at what seemed a "safe" level.  Then, I held through $48k because I do not want to sell any BTC, ever.

I was one of the idiots trying to increase LTH BTC by leveraging BTC to buy more BTC in the dip, then slowly repaying the margin loan from other income.  (Plus doing some of that "borrow against your BTC!" stuff for other purposes; this is the succinct version.)

That's similar to what Saylor does.  Why shouldn't I do it?  Oh, yes, because Saylor has access to lending terms that are not insane.

Exchange margin accounts make loans on the worst possible terms:  If the fuzzy-notional price of an oracle (not even the real market order-book price) dips even one microdollar below exactly $x for even one microsecond, then a robot instantly trashes your collateral.  Sells down, market-dumps - with liquidation penalty.

You get no "margin call", as in a traditional margin account.  (Or as Saylor would receive, if BTC crashes low enough.)  If you have other assets elsewhere, you get no opportunity to decide how best to limit your own overall losses.  If you have other assets elsewhere, they are not considered when calculating your account's risk of default.  And BTC is sufficiently volatile that there is no "safe" level.

...And there is no accounting for the fact that a fluctuation bottoming out slightly below your liquidation price may last only hours, minutes, or even seconds.  At 00:00 UTC today, my liquidation price level was about $29,975.  Seems safe, yes?  Well, there was a time when it seemed safe.  "If Bitcoin stays over $30k, I am ok."

The oracle only priced BTC below $30k for a brief time, sometime between 00:00 and 01:00 UTC.  In that time, I market-dumped several chunks adding up to 0.5 BTC.  When I hit the dread SELL button the first time, I saw my health meter flash as low as 0.01%... yes, I cut it that close; and I am damn lucky.

With no time to think, no time to make calculations, no time to set limits, I just kept shaving down as the price oracle kept dropping.  I was running away, as the "official" price chased me down towards the mid-$29k range.

Then, suddenly, the oracle was back over $30k; and my last sale was the absolute lowest actual sale today on this exchange.  I personally cut through the book, and made the very bottom of the wick!  It was all over in minutes.

If I had not caught it - if I had not sold anything - then a robot would have dumped much more out of my account.  (And done it all at once - probably cutting through the order book as low as $29k or even lower, due to how market maker bots arrange their orders during times of high volatility.)  My total losses would have been catastrophic.  By market-dumping 0.5 BTC at the bottom, I saved (multiple-times 0.5) BTC.

I have other money and assets that I may have preferred to lose, in preference to selling BTC so low.  But there was no time for that.


The problem is not borrowing money to buy BTC.  (Is it a problem for Saylor?)  The problem is borrowing money on the worst possible terms.  Positively malicious terms.

For most other types of loans, a borrower's default is not in the lender's best interest.  Collecting on defaulted accounts is lossy, and high-overhead.  Therefore, even the harsher parts of the lending terms tend to be tempered by the lender's desire not to need to deal with delinquent or defaulted accounts.  Most lenders seek to minimize defaults.

The entities offering cryptocurrency margin accounts have a perverse incentive to stack the loan terms to maximize borrower defaults.  Want to buy BTC at a discount?  Set up an exchange, offer margin accounts, wait for the dip, and then stockpile BTC in cascading liquidations!

The whole cryptocurrency margin ecosystem has the incentives of loan-sharking.  Those incentives are exploited in full accord with the ethics of people who also profit from pump-and-dump Ponzi-coins.

You need to be either stupid or crazy to take a loan on these terms, for almost any purpose.  To avoid accusations of deficient IQ tantamount to mental retardation, I plead a bout of temporary insanity.  Do I know better than to do this?  Yes, I do.  Why did I do it - why, why, why!?  I have asked myself that many times, after I got in too deeply to get out fast without drastic losses.  Chalk it up to temptation, starting with a little bit of something really safe ("lol, I can survive a crash even to $10k!"), then one thing leading to another as the account spins out of control.


Gun, knife, poison... suggestions?  Self-immolation is cool hot.

ramen

Eureka:  Self-starvation!  That's the ticket.

Or perhaps, I should be happy that I kept most of my BTC (for now), and simply work on extracting it from this debt trap.  Don't expect prompt replies.  I am busy with that, plus lots of this: