Did some more updating on the spreadsheet, accounting for around 7 blocks/hour due to the always increasing network hashrate (lagging difficulty), and around BTC50/day from transaction fees: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ap8MGY67MGwNdE5rRGUtd1hzTE1CVUR3WnZsME02QXc

Sure. There you go!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ap8MGY67MGwNdE5rRGUtd1hzTE1CVUR3WnZsME02QXc

I'm sure AMC will be buying the best available hardware at different times.

I've made my projections based only on buying + assembling Avalon chips, which is the baseline performance expectation. Anyone can use that to decide whether to invest or not.

I don't really care about any 65, 45, 32, 22 or 20nm chips at the moment. I've made my decision based on the possibility that there will be nothing better than those Avalons.

If it turns out we'll get anything better, I'll be !!!

So, I did some new estimations taking into consideration the latest available info. I am only considering income from Avalon chips atm (baseline performance expectation). Please examine all numbers carefully.

Please take everything with a grain of salt (!), as these are only previsions based on speculative data. I welcome any contributions for accuracy!

Comments:

• Upfront Avalon 10k chips cost of BTC1000 for each 10k chip order + board assembly, conservative scenario of 3 month delivery from order to mining start
• Network hashrate includes AMC hashrate and 103TH in august, and assumes a 15% increase per month (geometric progression, r=1.15), with an estimated 660TH/s by december.
• Operating expenses estimated at 10%.
• Share valuation reflects the % of accumulated profit/share divided by the bought share price. A 100% figure means the share price is fully paid by earned dividends.
• Used my estimations on sold share price as described below (average of 0.0005 for the 1st 5M and 0.0008 for the rest 15M); will correct when precise figures are released
• In may/14 the issuer starts receiving dividends on 40M general purpose shares, which are free to use for any growth/expansion/investment/salary purposes; in any case, the displayed share valuation takes into account as if no benefits are coming from these shares (so you can see what you'll receive in the worst case scenario)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ap8MGY67MGwNdE5rRGUtd1hzTE1CVUR3WnZsME02QXc


(Edit: Added Effective MH/s per share and MH/s per BTC at 0.0005 and 0.0008/share.)

The "Growth/Expansion Fund" receives all dividends from unsold shares. So, with only 5M sold, for all intents and purposes it receives dividends from 35M shares.

Think of it like a mechanism to always keep available funds ready for hardware buying.

There are 6 avalons from batch 2 (feb 18 order) arriving shortly, followed by 68 Bkk-16 (~305GH/s IIRC). There are already orders placed with Avalon for 20,000 chips, all of them going to AMC mining hardware. (edit-20k chips).

"Artificially high" is expressed by market volume. Judging by AMC market volume, can't really agree.

Tricky question there!

I've run several possible scenarios, from only 5M bought to 20M. In all of them AMC does pretty well, but in the 20M sold scenario ofc pretty damn well!

It is really best to sell as many shares as possible, even if that means at 0.0005. Market interest can either be reflected by (1) higher price or (2) higher volume. In our case, we benefit much more from the higher volume (IPO shares sell quicker) than higher price (IPO shares sell slower as they cost more + IPO shares have to compete with other shares in price undercutting to keep volume up).

The capacity to buy more mining hardware now rather than later heavily pays off, especially since we get to profit much more from it mining at lower difficulties.

I'd put the 20M selling, with people picking them as long as they wish, even if it takes 1, 2 or 3 months to do it. The faster they go, the more everyone benefits. Also, remember that if they don't sell quickly, the growth fund is increased proportionally to the unsold shares. It doesn't compensate as much as selling, but it's still something to consider.

There will always be the problem that when you need the coin and post at market level, they'll just be undercut. The only price with no undercuts is 0.0005. And everyone that bought from flippers at a higher price will be alienated if the price goes down again to 0.0005.

The board assembly can be outsourced, there are already lots of places offering board assembly for Avalon chips.

I'd say keep the 0.0005 price untill all 20M are sold and the funds are secured to invest in new hardware as soon as possible. After that, the market is free to do as it wishes, but the new hardware is secured.

The big issue is that at 0.0005 the IPO shares are almost all that will be bought, since anyone that sells below that will do at a loss. The moment the price goes up, there will be lots of share flipping on the market, selling just below IPO price. This means the income funds for buying more hardware will halt while the flippers sell their shares. This is a very big issue!

From my estimates, getting the hardware faster from BTC10,000 from the 20M@0.0005 outweighs the mess that will be selling shares at higher price points with all flippers just waiting to cash in. Maybe shares can sell pretty well at 0.0008, but there's no guarantee that those funds are going to AMC. Right now, at 0.0005, there is.

For each share someone buys at 0.0008 from a flipper, AMC received 0.0005 when the flipper bought it in the first place, and the flipper now receives 0.0003. Since AMC receives all the same, might as well sell at 0.0005 instead of competing in a speculative market, where it only gets a much smaller % of all sales and takes a huuuuuuge time to collect the much needed funds for buying hardware. The clock is ticking!

At this point I would propose that all remaining "Early-Adopters" shares from the 20M should all be posted at 0.0005. This would guarantee that almost all sold shares are coming from the IPO stock, since there'll be almost no undercutting, with the incoming funds quickly being invested into new hardware. As I pointed before, this is a silicon time race.

It was a forced sell.

Other option would be to issue a special dividend, weighted by the bought share price, so that everyone that bought at a higher price gets more %.

This feels like a reasonable suggestion, I'm sure Ukyo can code a script to parse the DB and for each AMC owner: (a) get the paid BTC for every owned share bought at >0.0005 and sum them all, (b) divide that by 0.0005 and (c) transfer the number of shares represented by the difference between (b) and the number of AMC shares in the account.

Example: Let's say someone bought 25 shares: 5@0.0006 and 20@0.0008. (a) 5*0.0006+20*0.0008 = 0.019; (b) 0.019/0.0005 = 38; (c) 38-25 = 13 shares to transfer between KS and shareholder.

I sent a PM asking him to issue an "official" statement here, with the reasons for that.

More updated predictions taking into account more variables. Please examine all numbers carefully.

Please take everything with a grain of salt (!), as these are only previsions based on speculative data. I welcome any contributions for accuracy!

Comments:

• Upfront Avalon 10k chips cost of BTC1000 for each 10k chip order + board assembly, conservative scenario of 3 month delivery from order to mining start
• Network hashrate assumes a 15% increase per month (geometric progression, r=1.15), with an estimated 381TH/s by december.
• Operating expenses estimated at 10%.
• Share valuation reflects the % of accumulated profit/share divided by the bought share price. A 100% figure means the share price is fully paid by earned dividends.
• Used my estimations on sold share price as described below; will correct when precise figures are released
• In may/14 the issuer starts receiving dividends on 60,000,000 shares, which are also free to use for any growth/expansion/investment purpose; in any case, the displayed share valuation takes into account no benefits coming from the issuer's funds (so you can see what you'll receive in the worst case scenario)