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61  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2020, 10:13:22 PM
come on boys it's been posted twice now shouldn't we jumping up and down again another company sank 115 million into btc and no one seems to give two shits you'd rather talk about quantum greek jews or something i mean perhaps this is the new normal i don't know but i think it's something

Spot on.  Was going to say stuff, but I got beaten to it.  Have a merit instead.
62  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [FREE RAFFLE] CypherpunkNow's "Bitcoin Tree" no. 24/40 on: October 13, 2020, 09:59:53 PM
56 please?

Thanks!
63  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2020, 11:10:45 AM

This is also very funny, while being serious (found further down in your Twitter link) — Enable sound:

https://twitter.com/SwanBitcoin/status/1315742598632538112

Certainly raised a smile...

Edit: It's hard not to be a fan of a guy who simply takes his (listed) company's cash pile of hundreds of millions of dollars and puts it in Bitcoin.
64  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 13, 2020, 10:25:27 AM
I still have nightmares of huge bags being dumped on the market over and over again.

Do you think that new supply is finally restricted enough? Is the majority of Monero now held by stronger hands? How many people bought between $140 and $500 and just want to break even?

97% of the 18 million Monero has been mined compared to Bitcoin which is at 88% of 21 million.

Will this start to make an impact?

Or are there still whales and miners waiting in the wings looking to get rid of their bags?

Start?  It already has.  As explorer and I have noted with Polo, the XMR sell side has been depleting and the buy side has steadily increased.  The ratio is the highest I have seen.  If bagholders looking for exit exist they aren't even putting speculative high sells on.

You would think after such a long period of historically low prices there would indeed be some cashing in, but I cannot see it.  

Maybe big money is smart and knows it's way too early..?

If Aminorex was here, I reckon I know what he'd say.
65  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 13, 2020, 10:17:37 AM

50k BTC to me seems inevitable before summer, IMO.  

If that is you belief? do you see Monero rising with the wave against btc? or a decrease in ratio but still an net increase in monero price in bitcoin?

Last moontime it rose against BTC and of course, consequentially, in fiat terms (massively).  So if history at least rhymes...

Personally I can only agree with explorer.  BTC 50K by autumn '21 - then moon.  Monero following.  ATH by the time BTC hits 50K then moon.  You know I have been this bullish on BTC since the bottom, mate - I just think Monero will follow, too.
66  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 12, 2020, 06:44:24 PM
XMR's USD peak was around the 500 USD mark when Bitcoin last mooned.

Back then, let's say that was roughly a 40th (or 2.5%) of the Bitcoin price.   If this run 'season' plays out then a 50K BTC is far from difficult to imagine be end of 2021.    

Monero making it to a four figure dollar sum is not outside the realms of possibility.

I certainly think an ATH is likely.   2 x ATH - why not?
67  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 12, 2020, 08:24:43 AM
Great posts cAPSLOCK, thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Online financial privacy should be as simple as using cash offline, else it will remain a minority (like myself) using it as unfortunately with most privacy focused projects. However there is a group of users that would normally not care, but now they have to. Not sure how many DNM’s and its users need to get busted before it becomes clear you can’t use a coin with a transparent ledger, but both ends have a clear incentive looking for alternatives. And currently there really is only one.

Absolutely.

But there has only ever been one.  It's just that the penny has finally dropped.  That, coupled with a lack of liquidity is a perfect storm.

But hey, this is Monero, of course it's leaping up again.
68  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 12, 2020, 08:14:29 AM
XMR just popped over $130.

Sweet.
69  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 11, 2020, 09:05:04 PM
Two one, two one, two
one. Two one, two one, two one.
Two-oo-oo wo-one.

That's actually kinda trippy, with a lot of analog delay Smiley

no haiku today
from me, OutOfMemory
part two, to make it true

#nohaiku

https://www.sndup.net/9k8g/21.mp3

 Cool

I was meaning more like https://www.sndup.net/8hvj/two-one.mp3

EDIT: I know, it's not an analog delay, but i don't got a roland space echo machine lying around here  Tongue

The Roland Space Echo was a beautiful thing.  Used it live on my vocals (back in the day) - delicious.
70  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 09, 2020, 02:48:06 PM
Well we are a little above the $115 mark. 

So that's over the upper edge of cAPSLOCK's low range.  Hopping up one step would be good.  That said, mainly I am just happy it's still bullish and not looking at all like ending soon.
71  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 06, 2020, 09:21:12 PM
   Definitely accumulation going on.  Buy orders on polo up 25% and significant wall action keeping a lid on it.  Certainly a small fry exchange compared to the volume proportion of yesteryear, but indicative.  It would seem that this is gentleman.

Yep, the sell side for XMR/BTC hasn't moved much on Polo, but the buy side is up a lot.  Monero is third on Polo for volume in BTC.  Not as high on the Polo Tether market - but still high there too.

In spite of current BTC dip, support is reasonably strong.  All still looking good. Supply tightening is starting to show.  That said, the next month or so is inevitably going to see fun and games in legacy financial markets to keep things unpredictable.
72  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 04, 2020, 09:17:14 PM

Props to you and Febo for prompting me to look at this.  I keep coming back to it and thinking about it.

Morpheus' tweets in the above link really makes me smile:

One quote:

'It is as if @monero was to some extent BTC itself, and you wont find other coins that has this same pattern. The market evaluated both as THE SAME. This is HUGE because as you guys can see, Monero's transactions just keep increasing parabolically while Bitcoin's TX aren't.'

I hope this analysis proves to be valid and stays on track (and that transactions do keep growing) because it means the price now could perhaps be a couple of orders of magnitude short of where it's ultimately headed.

And that would be rather sweet.  Am now taking out some of the sells I have left on exchange from a couple of years back.  I used to think it was a good thing to provide liquidity in the market, but I am suddenly starting to feel less inclined to.

Wink
73  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 04, 2020, 08:22:06 AM
But reading a book
Can expand the mind greatly
It's worth the effort
74  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 03, 2020, 03:28:36 PM

According to Godwin himself it is okay to make appropriate Hitler comparisons and that it should not end the discussion.

So are you saying that the Hitler reference was correct or incorrect?


Neither.  Godwin was probably only semi-serious, but he stated that if any thread argument went on long enough the probability that Hitler would get mentioned was close to 1.  I know he's since clarified it shouldn't necessarily end an argument.

I was actually suggesting to nutildah that arguing with nullius was relatively pointless. 
75  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 03, 2020, 10:57:10 AM
Godwin's law:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law

76  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 27, 2020, 03:15:00 PM
Steady upward pressure indeed - it's popped a little over 0.009, let's see if it likes the view a little more this time.

It's 0.01 that I really want to leave behind, but I don't doubt we will see it before too long.

EDIT: Just checked Polo as I know it well in terms of XMR v BTC.  The buy side is over 50% of the sell side.  This is unusually high and normally a good sign.

The barrier may be the $100 mark in XMR/USD terms which it seems to be hovering under by less than 2 bucks.
77  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 23, 2020, 09:28:43 AM
There will indeed be more days in the sun.  2016 and 2017 were spectacular for Monero, with huge appreciation against BTC.

I have no reason to think this cycle will not see more fun and games.  Monero is seen positively as a 'real' coin and also one with as incredibly important case as has been mentioned above.  The fear of authorities intervening to ban it has been real, but the counter argument that in some cases even banks need privacy is starting to mitigate against this.  Besides, any attempt to curtail use will only certify that Monero works and they cannot trace it.  The Lindy effect means the likelihood of this kind of issue is decreasing and the price is reflecting this.

The cycle of the market baked into Bitcoin will likely repeat and coupled with scarcity that means Monero will shine again, it's been woefully underpriced for too long.
78  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 19, 2020, 11:55:45 PM


The end game is bitcoin becomes the settlement layer for the world. Transaction costs are going way up in the future, you're not going to want to do on-chain transactions when it costs $1000+ to do so, but if you're settling a billions dollars, that's a tiny price to pay.

The fact is, whether we like it or not, very few individuals (other than those of us here) will hold private keys in 10 years. The transaction costs alone will ensure it.


**A little Saturday read inspired by your post... I will merit you, but I just dumped all my merit on Hal Finney.  You can't be mad about that right?***

This is a very hard thing for the old school bitcoiner to accept.  And some will reject it outright. In fact that is why Roger Ver went the way he did.  I think CSW is an actual pathological conman, but I think Ver fell in love with a version of Bitcoin that he began to see as doomed, ironically as it began to become successful. But I want to put forth a couple reasons I think what you said above is important and inevitable.  

1.  The banking infrastructure  and concept is STILL useful.
2.  We actually NEED it.

The first bitcoin transaction I did in 2011 was to a poker site (bitco.in, as Seals with Clubs did not even exist yet!)  The whole reason I went to the trouble to get my hands on some bitcoin was to play online poker with it.  But like so many of us, along this path I suddenly saw what being able to transact value without a middleman FELT LIKE.  The lightbulb turned on... one pill will make you smaller, etc.  And it stuck.  My poor wife.  She has had to listen to a decade of it.

For some reason it is not as hard for me to accept as it seems to be VER.  It is inevitable.  Bitcoin, if it does indeed begin to serve the world as even a semi-niche store of value will grow to magnitudes of it's current resource usage.  And I am not going to crank the blocksize debate up again, but to put it simply we can either keep bitcoin validation decentralized and thereby enforce the consensus, or we can let it be taken over by a small minority, and end up with a digital panopticon that would make most fundamentalist evangelical's vision of the "mark of the beast" look like Monopoly.  The fight is over which resource use grows... and the market has, in some way against all odds, chosen correctly: Fees.

I agree with the market here and I realize the future is not what, even Satoshi, seemed to have seen.  Although Hal got it.  And WAAAAAY back then too...

I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash. Most Bitcoin transactions will occur between banks, to settle net transfers. Bitcoin transactions by private individuals will be as rare as... well, as Bitcoin based purchases are today.

2010, y'all! Smiley

And we are watching this unfold right under our noses.  But most people don't really see it yet.  There are a lot of contenders, and people tend to look at the exchanges and talk about them being the bitcoin banks... and behold JUST THIS WEEK the news hit that Kraken was granted the whatever-it-is regulatory powers to become a BANK.  But even more than that, I think the underestimated and EXTREMELY Savvy @jack is already a little ahead of them in some ways with Square/Cash App. Not only is it one of the best places to buy bitcoin, but he is laying the groundwork for all commerce to be done using his application.  They just introduced some sort of payroll feature.  This makes Wells Fargo look like a fucking brontosaurus looking at the curious bright streak coming through the sky called Cash App. "Oooh pretty!"

And then we have Jack Mallers, the grandson of one of the founding fathers of the Chicago Board Options Exchange who is doing one of the most interesting projects laying down a REAL, WORKING payment layer for Bitcoin using the lightning network.  This ultra laid back hoodie wearing millennial (Gen Z-er?) stands to create an even bigger legacy than either of his ancestors.  He is quietly laying the groundwork for a bulletproof bitcoin payment network, that SETTLES on the main chain.

Boom.

Credit card terminals are not going away.  Banks are not going away. Loans and mortgages and myriad other financial instruments are not going away.  The vision of each bitcoiner living in a citadel guarding his 8 of 15 multisig seed word stashes served by his farm of nodes all running mixing protocols and so on is a "Mountain Man Fantasy".  And some of those mountain men will doubtless exist.  But in reality the VAST majority of humans could never handle that amount of responsibility.  They want to pay someone else to guard their value for them.  Someone who is an expert in the kind of security needed to safeguard value, and now with the added wrinkles and challenges presented by cryptography.  Perhaps someone who offers insurance against a failure or theft. Someone who does all the dirtywork behind the scenes so you can buy your iconic cup of coffee without having to remember a 19 character password.  

Those someones are called "banks".  Or, at least that's what they used to be called.  This level of disruption is big enough that they COULD end up with a different name.

Actually there is a very good reason for Bitcoin-backed banks to exist, issuing their own digital cash currency, redeemable for bitcoins. Bitcoin itself cannot scale to have every single financial transaction in the world be broadcast to everyone and included in the block chain. There needs to be a secondary level of payment systems which is lighter weight and more efficient. Likewise, the time needed for Bitcoin transactions to finalize will be impractical for medium to large value purchases.

Bitcoin backed banks will solve these problems. They can work like banks did before nationalization of currency. Different banks can have different policies, some more aggressive, some more conservative. Some would be fractional reserve while others may be 100% Bitcoin backed. Interest rates may vary. Cash from some banks may trade at a discount to that from others.

That was a very wise man seeing the rise of Cash App, Strike, and Kraken back when everyone else was just wanting to figure out how to get around all the regulations that made it hard to play online poker.  Insert Ver's scrunched up face here as he foams at the mouth taking about PEER TO PEER CASH!!! AND I AM SORRY I JUST GET SO EMOTIONAL!

No one can stop you from using the chain.  Ever.  That is CERTAINLY one of the things that makes bitcoin a "zero to one" invention.  But if you really want to compete for the kind of VALUE that Bitcoin will command and REQUIRE for on chain transactions??? ...better get that business plan ready.  And there are some fairly smart folks out there with a good head start on you already.  Bitcoin is not replacing credit cards... Bitcoin is replacing FedWire.

If we want Bitcoin to be successful then this is where we are going.  And we should really be glad.  It might not look like what we all thought it would 10 years ago (or 7 or 3 or last week), and part of the reason for that is our vision is limited.  We get hung up, like Ver, on shiny things that look more important than they are.

That feeling you got when you did your first few Bitcoin transactions?  It's not going away.  It's just changing form.  And you are one of the lucky ones that got to experience that first.  Most people will have the much more ho-hum feeling of just watching the mover and shakers roll out the new world for them...

Quote
Personally, I'm pulling out the champaign that market behaviour is indeed producing activity levels that can pay for security without inflation, and also producing fee paying backlogs needed to stabilize consensus progress as the subsidy declines.
-Greg Maxwell around the BTC all time high Dec 2017. https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2017-December/015455.html

Happy Saturday!


Happy indeed.

Am far away from home taking a break just now, but even in the wildest remote places (thankfully) these days a cellular signal allows me to catch up with the WO.

Have to say today's pages have been a joy, with some intelligent, thoughtful posts.  I have to single this post out though. 

It is superb; insightful, open minded and persuasive in its radical and positive vision - it has even persuaded me to see things a little differently, which I am grateful for. It more than deserves the merit it has been showered with. 

Jeez cAPSLOCK, you are on fire. Keep it up. I am now just feeling a huge urge to sell everything I can possibly sell to buy more bitcoin.

And props for crediting Hal.  If i ever have the pleasure of meeting you the beers are on me.
79  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 14, 2020, 11:22:18 PM
My mystical chart has BTC breaking upward mid September.  XMR seems as always to be a wild card, but its due to take a bigger chunk out of BTC.  Overdue, methinks.

Good call, explorer, better than mine. I expected a positive move, too - but I was over-optimistic about the Bitcoin price bouncing back and Monero riding that well.  Your 'mid September' prediction has aged rather well.

80  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 07, 2020, 08:22:39 AM
@strawbs (and other fine members here) thanks for meriting my haiku.

I am not a merit source, and was pretty low on 'em - it will enable me to spread a few around again.
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